15 Current Players Already Bound to the Hall
With the retiring of Shaquille O’Neal and Yao Ming, the Hall of Fame will have a tremendous ceremony in five years. O’Neal has an exuberant sense of humor but Yao, although more subtle, can be quite funny as well.
O’Neal qualifies for the Hall on just about every level. Yao’s individual numbers may not jump out but as a breakthrough ambassador to the game, specifically to China and the Far East, he’s a lock as well.
Back in August of 2010, HOOPSWORLD looked at Who’s Next for the Hall Of Fame? but to be more specific, which active players will get the call?
O’Neal and Yao don’t qualify. A young Blake Griffin or Kevin Durant needs more time to establish their credentials . . . and if we ever get past this lockout, they assuredly will.
How exactly the Hall decides which players will be inducted remains a mystery. It’s undisclosed and the results are sometimes head-scratching but there are a few general criteria that seems to hold true.
A) League MVP
B) NBA Finals MVP
C) Multiple NBA Titles
D) All-Star Appearances/Individual Accolades
E) International Success
League MVP – Historically, every single eligible NBA regular season MVP through 1999 (Karl Malone) has been elected to the Hall of Fame.
That bodes well for Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Derrick Rose, Shaquille O’Neal and Allen Iverson.
Five of the nine have won titles. Nash, James and Iverson have probably done enough in their careers to hit other criteria in addition to league MVP. If there were to be an exception to the rule, it’d be Derrick Rose who is so early in his career, he’s yet to build a long list of accomplishments.
NBA Finals MVP – The historical significance of the “Bill Russell NBA Finals Most Valuable Player Award” (named as such since 2009) isn’t 100% like League MVP but it’s close.
The only two players to win it but not make the Hall would be Jo Jo White and Cedric Maxwell.
Everyone else through 1998 has been inducted.
Since 1998, nine players have won the award including regular season MVPs Duncan, O’Neal, Bryant and Nowitzki. Suffice it to say, those four are locks.
Will Chauncey Billups, Dwyane Wade, Tony Parker or Paul Pierce end up on the White/Maxwell exception list?
Multiple NBA Titles – There’s obviously more to the Hall of Fame other than just having titles. Mark Madsen won a couple of championships with the Lakers and he’s just not going to make it.
Typically the “best” players on a title team will get consideration but this category is a little vague. It’s difficult to separate where someone is in because of other qualifications . . . or was it the title that put him over the top.
Dennis Johnson was finally put in the hall posthumously and his three titles (and NBA Finals MVP) should have gotten him in sooner.
Dennis Rodman’s case, with limited individual accolades outside of a couple of All-Star appearances, was bolstered tremendously by his five titles.
Even one title may be enough to push a player like Pierce over the edge.
All-Star Appearances/Individual Accolades – Some players never win titles. Some never even get the chance. The Hall recognizes great players who impact the game whether they’ve won or not.
Chris Mullin is the most recent example with five All-Star appearances along with one All-NBA First Team selection (and a few on the second or third teams), a pair of Olympic gold medals and some collegiate honors.
Patrick Ewing, who never won a title or MVP, had 11 All-Star appearances to help him get the call in 2008.
Adrian Dantley was a six-time All-Star also inducted in 2008. Dominique Wilkins was a nine-time All-Star as was George “Iceman” Gervin.
International Success – Arvydas Sabonis was an easy choice despite only playing in the NBA for the tail end of his career.
Drazen Petrovic, Maciel Pareira and Drazen Dalipagic are examples. Petrovic made his impact in the league before a car accident took his life. Pareira and Dalipagic never played in the NBA.
Hakeem Olajuwon was a pioneer but he was enshrined for reasons beyond his nationality.
Current Hall-of-Famers to Be – So with five factors listed above who will get the call?
1) Kobe Bryant – A, B, C, D
2) Tim Duncan – A, B, C, D (Coming from the Virgin Islands might not be enough to warrant E)
3) Dirk Nowitzki – A, B, D, E
4) Kevin Garnett – A, D
5) Allen Iverson – A, D (History says that A is enough. Also, is he a current or retired player?)
6) Steve Nash – A, D (Canada won’t be enough for E, although who decides such things anyway?)
7) LeBron James – A, D
8) Paul Pierce – B, D
9) Dwyane Wade – B, D
10) Pau Gasol – C, D, E
11) Jason Kidd – D (10 All-Stars, an NBA Title, three NBA Finals appearances)
12) Ray Allen – D (10 All-Stars, an NBA Title, two NBA Finals appearances, All-Time Leader in 3-point makes)
13) Manu Ginobili – C, D, E (he’s light on the All-Star appearances but otherwise has made his impact felt from Argentina)
Three difficult ones to judge are Chauncey Billups, Tony Parker and Derrick Rose. Billups and Parker should qualify under B and both obviously have NBA Titles.{AUTHOR_BOX}
Billups, as a five-time All-Star with an NBA Finals MVP, should have the edge over the Mullin litmus test.
Parker has earned three All-Star honors, the NBA Finals MVP and three titles. He’s also Belgian-born.
Both should be added to the list if the Hall is to be consistent so:
14) Tony Parker – B, C, D, E
15) Chauncey Billups – B, D
Looking at how Parker hits the criteria, it shouldn’t really be a question.
Rose just hasn’t done enough yet. Today he’d be the one NBA MVP not to get the call but give him a few years and that will change in his favor.
There will be plenty of time for the next generation of stars to earn their stripes.
Some names who have plenty of D-category accolades (and a minimum of four All-Star assignments) but are on the bubble: Vince Carter, Grant Hill, Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O’Neal, Amar’e Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Shawn Marion, Chris Paul, Ben Wallace.
Hill, with seven All-Star appearances, may get in like Mullin. If All-Star appearances alone were the criteria, then so too will Carter, McGrady, Bosh, Jermaine and Amar’e.
Howard with five All-Stars seems to have far more of a shot than Joe Johnson with five. Perhaps there’s where Dwight’s NBA Finals appearance and Defensive Player of the Year Awards come in to play.
Based on the history (while reverse engineering the criteria), it looks like 15 current players are set to make it to the Hall of Fame with an additional handful on the bubble . . . and a few kids still earning their legacies.
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