2011 NBA Draft: Biggest Upside
Senior NBA Writer & College Basketball Editor
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Every prospect who hears their name called, and even some of those who don’t, on June 23rd at the NBA Draft have some kind of upside. That’s what makes predicting a draft classes’ success level so difficult; it’s impossible to foresee how much individual players will improve as professionals. Along with extremely healthy paychecks, they receive elite level coaching, training, and access to facilities that are unlike anything they’ve had in the past. That can do wonders for anyone’s game, regardless of age.
Duke point guard Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams of Arizona have clearly established themselves as the two best players in the draft. With only three years of college experienced combined between the two of them, they’re clearly far from peaking. However, their talent level is so high that we expect them to make a major impact right away – so you won’t be seeing them on this list of the 2011 draft prospects with the most upside.
Our list features players whose long-term expectations great exceed those in the short-term. It takes a great deal of time and effort to adjust to the level of play in the NBA. But when these guys figure it out, they could end up being some of the best the class has to offer.
Jonas Valanciunas (Lithuania) – 6’11, 240 lbs. Center
The state of the center position in the NBA is almost as bad as the point guard position is good. That’s why Valanciunas is projected by some mock drafts to go as high as two and no lower than five. He’s not NBA ready by any means, but the significant strides he’s made over the last couple years create serious hope.
Odds are that Valanciunas is going to spend a lot of his first couple of years in foul trouble. He’s underdeveloped physically and really active defensively. He’s also getting by on size more than skill offensively right now, which won’t work in the NBA.
As long as he handles that well and creates motivation out of it instead of doubt, he’ll at least be a future starter who more than holds his own on most nights.
Jan Vesely (Czech Republic) – 6’11, 240 lbs. Small Forward
Unless we’re talking about the dunk contest, Jan Vesely is not ready for the NBA either. His shot is a serious liability. He cannot consistently make an open jumper and even has major struggles from the free throw line. The possibility of him having to completely retool his stroke in the league is pretty high.
We’ve seen players do that with success. It’s a teachable skill. What isn’t teachable is being a freak athlete at 6’11 like Vesely. He’s got the kind of explosiveness that should make him good for at least one jaw-dropping play a game.
As of right now he’s more equipped to help a team at power forward than small forward. When that changes he’ll be an absolute nightmare to match up with.
Brandon Knight (Kentucky, Fr.) – 6’3, 176 lbs. Point Guard
Under no circumstance should Brandon Knight be compared to former John Calipari-coached guards Tyreke Evans, Derrick Rose and John Wall. Those guys were at a different level than Knight is at this point. Knight primarily stayed in the draft because it’s a down year and point guards with potential are in demand due to how much talent there is at the position. Teams need to equip themselves to deal with the likes of the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Russell Westbrook, New Orleans Hornet Chris Paul and the aforementioned guards.
In time Knight could be mentioned in the same sentence as the guys he replaced thanks to his ability to play under pressure and get to the basket. He has a lot of developing to do as a true point guard first, which is playing for the Utah Jazz behind Devin Harris is being discussed as a logical possibility.
{AUTHOR_BOX}Tristan Thompson (Texas, Fr.) – 6’8, 227 lbs. Power Forward
Depending on the night, Tristan Thompson would either look like a future NBA All-Star or someone who would end up D-League bound if he left early during his lone season at Texas. He’s a prime example of a player whose athletic abilities simply surpass his true basketball skills.
That won’t be the case for long, though. Thompson is a great kid with dedication that justifies believing in him.
At the outset Thompson will primarily be a shot blocker who wrecks havoc on the offensive glass. When he adds a mid range jump shot, some strength and post moves he’ll be capable of going head-to-head with just about any power forward in the league.
Lucas Nogueira (Brazil) – 7’0, 225 lbs. Center
There’s a high probability that we won’t be seeing Lucas Nogueira in the NBA during the 2010-2011 season. He’s not being sold as an instant-impact player. His camp prefers that he land with a team that has a history of being patient and helpful with player development.
Nogueira moves very well for a player his size and is a real nuisance for offensive players attacking the rim. In time he could be ready to contend against the top 350 players in the world, but that time isn’t now.
He needs to continue building his confidence and get as much experience as possible over the next two years. Not even he realizes how good he can be yet. The NBA is no place for him until that clicks. When it does we’re looking at a potential Marcus Camby, Tyson Chanlder-esque player.
Josh Selby (Kansas, Fr.) – 6’3, 194 lbs. Shooting Guard
Josh Selby’s eight months as a Kansas Jayhawk were a bit rough. He as he was punished by the NCAA at the start of the season and then severely limited by injuries at the end of it. His struggles suggested that staying for another year may be the right decision, but after about eight days of working out with other aspiring pros in Las Vegas he opted against it.
NBA scouts and general managers know talent when they see it and Selby just so happens to be overflowing with it. He’s as gifted of a scorer as the draft has to offer and also happens to be a stellar athlete who can get so much better.
Unfortunately for Selby he is a bit undersized for the shooting guard position. It’s not out of the question for him to stay at his natural position, but he’s going to have to either adapt or strongly consider shifting over to point guard. Either way, Selby is going to end up a contributor.
Jeremy Tyler (USA) – 6’10, 262 lbs. Power Forward/Center
Whether or not you approve of Jeremy Tyler’s decision to skip out on his senior year of high school to play overseas, there’s no denying that he’s as well prepared to be in the NBA as he could be at his young age. His stock may have been higher had he attended Louisville like he originally intended to, but he’s on the rise right now and looking like a possible first round pick.
Tyler still possesses the impressive athleticism that made him one of the top-ranked high school players in the country two years ago. Now he also has a professional’s body, work ethic and mentality to go along with it.
There are misconceptions out there about just who Tyler is and his decision-making skills off of the court. NBA teams have realized they’re of no concern and the idea of what he’ll be like as a finished product is really becoming intriguing.
Yannis Koutroupis is a senior NCAA and NBA analyst for HOOPSWORlD. You can follow him on twitter.


