The Memphis Grizzlies are dangerously close to being one of those teams that shines briefly, only to fall right back into obscurity. Two seasons ago they were the talk of the NBA, upsetting the top-seeded San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the playoffs and taking the Oklahoma City Thunder to seven games before finally succumbing in the second round. They allowed a key piece of that team walk away in Shane Battier, and coming into this season they are one more piece short after allowing sixth man O.J. Mayo walk as well. The team’s starting lineup is still one of the best in the West, but their supporting cast has some big shoes to fill.

HOOPSWORLD takes a look at the 2012-13 Memphis Grizzlies:

Five Guys Think…

It was inevitable that the Memphis Grizzlies were going to lose someone from their core. For it to be O.J. Mayo may not be that bad, especially if it’s the difference in keeping Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol and Mike Conley Jr. together. Mayo started to regress; his departure will open up the opportunity for second-year guard Josh Selby and versatile rookie Tony Wroten to become contributors. They both looked very strong at the Las Vegas Summer League. Chemistry is almost as important as anything for this team. They have the makings of a squad that could be more dangerous in a seven-game series than they are in the regular season. It’s all about getting there and improving on the way for the Grizzlies, who should be second only to the San Antonio Spurs in the Southwest Division.

2nd Place – Southwest Division

– Yannis Koutroupis
 

Were the Memphis Grizzlies a flash in the pan when they pushed the OKC Thunder to the limits in the Western Conference Finals two seasons ago? That’s the question being asked as we try to predict what kind of season they might have this year. It’s strange that they let O.J. Mayo walk for nothing after having so many trade offers for him, though it’s at least possible that the incoming trio of Jerryd Bayless, Wayne Ellington and Tony Wroten will be able to fill the void left by Mayo’s departure. On paper the Grizzlies should be at least a second-round team, but they have to prove they can live up to that potential.

2nd Place – Southwest Division

– Bill Ingram
 

The Memphis Grizzlies are still a legitimate contender, but they’ll need internal improvement to take the next step since they didn’t make any significant additions to their roster over the offseason. Memphis didn’t live up to expectations last season, losing to the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round of the playoffs, but they still have the talent to compete in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies should be able to finish as the second-best team in the Southwest Division, finishing slightly behind the San Antonio Spurs but slightly ahead of the Dallas Mavericks.

2nd Place – Southwest Division

– Alex Kennedy
 

Under new ownership, it’s hard to know what this roster will look like by the end of the year. The old owners swore up and down that the miracle group of 2011 would stay together, but now we’re not so sure. If Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, and Marc Gasol remain the core of this group, though, it’s hard not to like their chances as a Western Conference underdog. Tony Allen is one of the most fun defenders to watch in the entire league, Josh Selby looked great in summer league, and there are plenty of great role players to supplement those guys. There’s a lot to like with the Grizzlies, but only if they remain relatively untouched all season. Should Gay get traded, all bets are off.

2nd Place – Southwest Division

– Joel Brigham
 

Once again the Memphis Grizzlies should lock up a postseason berth in 2013, but the momentum from the club’s surprising Western Conference Semifinals run in 2011 seems to be drying up fast. The franchise currently sits roughly $3 million into luxury tax territory and is pending a change of ownership, which could ultimately opt to cut expenses and rebuild the roster in their own blueprint. Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph remain a very formidable trio but the team’s marquee acquisitions this summer of Jerryd Bayless and Wayne Ellington pale in comparison to some of the moves made around the league.

3rd Place – Southwest Division

– Lang Greene

Top Of The List

Top Offensive Player: A healthy Zach Randolph will challenge Rudy Gay for the top scoring honors in Memphis, but this is still Gay’s team, and they will go as far as he takes them. His scoring efficiency was down across the board last season, so the Grizzlies will need him to get back to his normal scoring clip for them to return to the playoffs and push beyond the first round. He doesn’t have to do it all, but he does have to set the tone and lead the way.

Top Defensive Player: Marc Gasol has arrived as a respected NBA player, after spending the early part of his career living in the shadow of his brother Pau. That respect is due in some part to his offensive game – he averaged 14.6 points last season – but the Grizzlies depend on him as their primary defensive stopper. He averaged a team-high 1.9 blocks per game last season.

Top Playmaker: After spending the early part of his career platooning with Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley has come into his own as the Grizzlies’ full-time starter since the team traded Lowry away. In his third season as the team’s starter, Conley averaged 12.7 points, 6.5 assists and a career-high 2.2 steals per game. He gets better with each passing season, and while he is not going to be mentioned in the same breath with Chris Paul and Derrick Rose, he’s a proven floor leader and a great fit in Memphis.

Top Clutch Player: Though there are many offensive weapons on the team, Rudy Gay is ultimately the Grizzlies’ "decider." Four or five Grizzlies will likely average double-digit scoring this season, and that’s great, but when the game’s on the line one player has to step up, and that player is Gay. He understands that and relishes the role.

The Unheralded Player: When Zach Randolph went down last season the Grizzlies desperately needed someone to step in and help fill the void. Marreese Speights was cast off by the Philadelphia 76ers, but did an admirable job filling in for Z-Bo. He started 54 games for Memphis, averaging career-bests of 9.0 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. This season he will be a valuable reserve for the team, as well as serve as injury insurance should injuries strike again.

The Best New Addition: Jerryd Bayless has, at times, shown spectacular potential as an NBA player, but he has yet to capture any level of consistency in that effort. For that reason, Tony Wroten is likely to be the best new addition to the team this season. Wroten will be called upon to fill the void left by Mayo’s departure, and by all indications he is ready to attempt that feat. He had three good showings in summer league play, posting games of 19, 19 and 17 points, giving the Grizzlies reason to hope that last year’s Pac-12 Freshman of the Year can be an impact player for them this season.

– Bill Ingram

Who We Like

1. Rudy Gay: A humble star is a rare commodity in the NBA, and the Grizzlies have one of the best in Rudy Gay. Willing to share the limelight, yet ready to take over when called upon, Gay is the heart and soul of the Memphis Grizzlies.

2. Zach Randolph: Despite being a double-double machine, it took a while for Zach Randolph to find a home in the NBA. He was never an All-Star until he landed in Memphis, and when he’s healthy he is a great complement to Gay, Gasol, and the rest of the Grizzlies’ attack.

3. Marc Gasol: The hardest position to fill in the modern NBA is that of starting center, and the Grizzlies’ patience and developmental work with Marc Gasol is starting to pay off in a big way. They have their starting center of the present and future, and he’s quickly becoming one of the best in the NBA.

4. Tony Allen: Every good team needs a player who is willing to get down and dirty and do the little things that rarely show up on the scoreboard, but are absolutely essential for success. That player is Tony Allen for the Grizzlies. His relentless defense, his tough-as-nails approach off the court and his willingness to sacrifice his body to save or create a possession make him invaluable as the Grizzlies’ supreme x-factor.

5. Jerryd Bayless: After being drafted by the Portland Trail Blazers, Jerryd Bayless put on a show in summer league. He looked poised to become a real force to be reckoned with, but that summer league potential never quite translated to the real NBA. Now, after four seasons in the league and stints in Portland, New Orleans and Toronto, the Grizzlies are hoping he will find himself in Memphis. He had the best season of his career in Toronto last season, averaging 11.4 points and connecting on 42 percent of his threes. Since the team let Mayo walk away they desperately need someone to fill his shoes, and Bayless may be just the person to do it.

– Bill Ingram

Strengths

Last season the Grizzlies were at their best when they were in transition, ranking fourth in the NBA in transition offense. They weren’t nearly as effective in halfcourt sets, ranking 25th overall. Part of the reason for their ineffectiveness in the half court was Zach Randolph’s injury, which impacted him long after he returned to the lineup. If Randolph is 100 percent healthy they will be more potent offensively, and especially in the half court. Defensively the Grizzlies played well in most aspects, ranking 8th overall, third in transition defense and 11th in half court defense.

– Bill Ingram

Weaknesses

The Grizzlies got 16 percent of their offense off of spot-up situations last season, yet they ranked just 21st in the NBA in spot-up offense. Again, it will help to have a fully healthy Randolph doing damage in the middle, forcing defenders to collapse and opening up three-point shooting opportunities. Still, those open shots have to drop, and with Mayo gone the Grizzlies will need help from Wroten, Bayless, Gay and Conley, in particular. The Grizzlies were not very good in isolation, ranking 28th, though they ran iso plays more than 10 percent of the time. They also ranked 28th when the pick-and-roll ball handler was set up as the scorer. Defensively the Grizzlies were pretty good across the board last season, struggling primarily in defending spot-up shooters. Opposing teams got 20 percent of their offense through spot-up plays, so that’s something the Grizzlies will need to address this season.

– Bill Ingram

What Needs To Be Said On Opening Day….

We have set the tone with our aggressiveness over the past few seasons, but now is the time to focus on improving our offense. Our goal is to continue to take steps to meld our games together. The best way to do that is to really focus on the way we pass the ball. We have great individual talent, but our ball movement needs work. We also need some of your guys to look to score in ways in you aren’t accustomed to. Rudy, we need you to put your work into becoming a threat from behind the arc. You shot nearly 40 percent two years ago before your injury. We need you to get back to that level by taking good, smart shots from behind the arc. If I can get each of you to make small changes like that, our offensive efficiency will improve and we will be able to play deep into the postseason.

- Anthony Macri and Brett Koremenos

The Burning Question

Was the 2011 playoff run a fluke?

This time last year, one of the teams we couldn’t wait to see take the court was the Memphis Grizzlies. Fresh off a very impressive postseason run, the Grizzlies looked like they might be ready to ascend into the Western Conference’s upper echelon. Instead, though, they had a strong regular season then lost in the first round to the Los Angeles Clippers. Which Grizzlies team will show up this season? And more importantly, this postseason? Boasting one of the best front lines in all of basketball, the Grizzlies need to make some noise this season or risk losing management’s willingness to spend the money to keep the core group together.

– Bill Ingram