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We’ve reached the point in the end of season analysis where the teams we review aren’t in need of wholesale changes. Instead, like the case of the Portland Trail Blazers here, the line between success and failure is rather thin.

Without a doubt Portland is flawed. Once again injuries took a serious toll on them, especially in the frontcourt and to three-time All-Star guard Brandon Roy. The surprised many with a major move at the trade deadline to bring in Gerald Wallace and now this is a team with many more veterans at key positions than they had two short years ago.

The Portland Trail Blazers need to decide what kind of team they want to become. Are they still a team on the rise like many thought a short while ago? Or are they a team at a crossroads, having to choose between rebuilding and maintaining their course with the current roster?

Here’s Five Steps for Fixing the Portland Trail Blazers:

1 – Keep Andre Miller
Deciding to keep Miller – if they don’t waive him by June 29th his contract becomes guaranteed for 2011-12 – should be a no-brainer. Not only is Miller a master at running an offense, but his teammates respect him and enjoy playing with him, especially LaMarcus Aldridge who catches all those alley-oops for dunks. And $7.8 million is a deal.

There has been some rumbling from far corners about Portland letting Miller go in an attempt to get younger (this is not anything near official, more from minorities within fan base). It should be noted if Portland does waive Miller, the only way they can replace him is via a cap exception, a trade, or the draft. A rookie isn’t going to run this time out of the gate and free agency doesn’t have many options. Trade? Let’s make a quick list of point guards who are better than Miller with the Blazers, looking at a combination of production, age, and contract:

Rajon Rondo
Derrick Rose
Deron Williams
Chris Paul
Russell Westbrook
Steve Nash
Tony Parker
John Wall

Now, how many of those teams will be amenable to trading their point guard and returning Miller plus something? None. Miller is grouped pretty tightly, if not at the top of, the next group that includes Raymond Felton, Devin Harris, Jose Calderon, Darren Collison, Chauncey Billups, and Brandon Jennings. None of those players obviously make Portland better, but would force them to start over from a chemistry standpoint. Andre Miller will stay, as he should.

2 – Keep Greg Oden
Greg Oden will get better; the only question is if he can, finally, stay healthy once he does get back in game shape. One sentiment I’ve heard a lot in the past few months is something along the lines of this: Isn’t it better for the Portland Trail Blazers and Greg Oden to part ways?

My answer: No matter where Oden plays, he will still be the former number one pick who hasn’t made his mark. That doesn’t go away. It will never go away. It’s something that just is, and it’s time for everyone to recognize that part of Oden’s history is, really, irrelevant to Oden’s now.

Portland has indicated all along they will issue Greg Oden as $8.8 million Qualifying Offer by June 30th, therefore making him a restricted free agent. At that point Oden has three choices: 1) sign the one-year deal; 2) negotiate a long-term deal with Portland; 3) find another team willing to make him an offer Portland will have the option of matching.

Portland desperately needs another center on their roster and, if healthy (yes, if), Oden is the best possible option. He’s proven that in the 82 games he did play. The real question is if the team wants to work out a longer term deal with Oden, and if so, for how much? Three years starting at $5 million per season seems like a reasonable deal. Will another team offer him ridiculous money? Will there be any ridiculous money under the new CBA?

3 – Draft a Point Guard
The Blazers have two key needs: another point guard and more big men. If the plan is to re-sign Oden, they may have big men under control. Both Earl Barron and Chris Johnson, late season additions, have fully unguaranteed contracts for 2011-12, and if added to Oden, Camby, and Aldridge, form a decent group. There has been talk of the Blazers giving Jeff Pendergraph a chance to come back as well (he missed the entire season after tearing ligaments in his knee in preseason).

Portland holds the 21st and 51st picks of the 2011 NBA Draft and they need a point guard out of that, one with long-term potential. They have Patty Mills – who can be a restricted free agent – who played well in spots and is a key piece of the locker room, but Nate McMillan is reluctant to play him more than spot minutes. Unless something changes, he’s not the answer to what happens after Andre Miller.

That means Portland must find talent in the draft. Nolan Smith (Duke) or Reggie Jackson (Boston College) could be decent options in the first round. Shelvin Mack (Butler), Ben Hansbrough (Notre Dame), Demetri McCarney (Illinois), Isaiah Thomas (Washington), Norris Cole (Kentucky), or DeAndre Liggins (Cleveland State) could all be options in the second round. Portland needs to be doing their homework on the point guards in this draft right now and really hit a home run with it.

4 – Improve Defensive Rotations
{AUTHOR_BOX}Anyone who watched the playoff series between Portland and Dallas saw clearly how poorly Portland rotated defensively. They left open shooters open all night long and shots hit by the likes of Jason Kidd, Peja Stojakovic, and Jason Terry are a large reason why Portland is now watching the playoffs on TV. That needs to improve.

The good news is this is not a talent issue. Portland’s wings are fully capable of making those defensive rotations. In particular Gerald Wallace, Wes Matthews, and Nic Batum are normally fantastic perimeter defenders, but even Rudy Fernandez and Brandon Roy have the ability to contest those shots. They have to make it a priority.

Look for Portland’s perimeter defense to get better after a training camp together where they can more effectively work out the rotations, instead of having to adjust on the fly due to injuries and a major trade.

5 – Lay it on the Line With Brandon Roy
This has been side by many over the last few months, but Brandon Roy needs to change his approach to the team as far as his skills and his role is concerned. He admitted as much in interviews when the season was over, that maybe his game would look different next year. Part of the problem when Roy first came back from his dual knee surgeries is a part of him still hoped he could go back to being Brandon Roy, All-Star, and he worked towards that as opposed to changing his style on the fly midseason.

This is not a bad thing. The sooner everyone – Roy, the coaches, the fans, the media – realized the truth, the sooner the adjustments can be made for a fruitful future. Now, with a full summer to rest, recharge, and retool, the Blazers need to sit down with Roy and show him exactly what they need from him in his new incarnation: outside shooting, ball handling, leadership, and a little bit of defense. That’s not to say we won’t occasionally see the old Roy – Dallas remembers a certain fourth quarter for sure – but that has to be considered the exception rather than the expectation.

Brandon Roy can still be a team leader, but he has to mentally and physically accept this new role, and it has to be clear at every level what that role is. This is a goal Roy should work towards: Sixth Man of the Year.

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So readers, what do YOU think? Should Portland stay the course, keep their own players, focus on depth in the draft, and hopefully come to training camp rested and healthy? Or should they make major changes? Leave your thoughts in the comments below! And follow me on Twitter, if you are into that kind of thing.