5 Steps: Fixing The Warriors
Unlike some of the teams we have profiled in this Five Steps series, the Golden State Warriors are a team heavy on talent and may just be a few tweaks away from being back in the playoffs. In fact, many opined before this season began they would be there in April.
Unfortunately for the Warriors they play in the Western Conference and a 35 wins puts them 9.5 games behind the eighth-place Memphis Grizzlies. Injuries have played a huge part this season, with big men Louis Amundson, Andris Biedrins, and Ekpe Udoh all missing decent chunks of time.
So what tweaks are needed? Here’s Five Steps for Fixing the Golden State Warriors:
1 – Trade Andris Biedrins
For a team in need of rebounding (see Step 2) it may seem counterintuitive to trade their second-leading rebounder. The problem is Biedrins doesn’t have the lateral movement defensively to effectively man the middle for a team with guards who take a lot of risks. The Warriors need a center that will rebound, defend, and not hurt them on the offensive end of the floor.
They have that in rookie Ekpe Udoh. After coming back from an offseason injury Udoh has shown glimpses of why the Warriors made him their 2010 lottery pick. Yes, like Biedrins he also isn’t especially skilled offensively, but at least he can manage to hit almost 70% of his free throws; Biedrins is simply pathetic.
Is Udoh ready? Ready enough to trade Biedrins, instead of just putting him on the bench?
Biedrins makes $9 million per season for the next three years. If he’s not going to start the team is absolutely not going to get $9 million of value out of him and there will be plenty of teams who desperately need a center and may be willing to give the Warriors some depth in the frontcourt in return.
2 – Add Rebounding
The Warriors get outrebounded by four boards a game. It’s a fact teams with higher rebounding ratios tend to also have better records. And yes, while Biedrins is their second-leading rebounder, his role has reduced so much (and injuries have taken a toll) that he hasn’t put up a double-digit rebounding game since February 9th and only four total in 2011.
David Lee’s 9.8 boards a game at the power forward spot are just fine. Udoh will improve at the center spot. What the Warriors need is a player who can come off the bench and grab boards in the frontcourt (could this player be Lou Amundson in a larger role?) and their small forward needs to clean the glass better. Dorrell Wright has been a fantastic story this season offensively, but it would be nice to see him improve on 5.3 boards a night. Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry combine for 7.3 boards a game while holding down the vast majority of the guard time – if they could push that to nine it would really make a difference.
The bottom line is they need to get more boards.
3 – Don’t Break Up Ellis-Curry
When talking about what to do with the Golden State Warriors the topic of the small backcourt inevitably comes up. Both players are listed at 6-3 and 185 pounds; good size for a point guard, but a tad small for a shooting guard. Most people seem to think one of them must go, the other will be the point guard of the now and future, and the Warriors will need to bring in a bigger, more physical guard.
It’s not a bad idea if it’s a proven fact this pairing won’t work long-term. That hasn’t been proven.
Curry and Ellis combine for 42.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 11.4 assists, and 3.62 steals a game. Both shoot well: Ellis hits 45.2% from the field, 36.2% from three, and 78.9% from the line; Curry hits 47.1 percent from the field, 43.6% from three, and 93.2% from the line. Many, many teams will tell you when these two are on together, both offensively and slashing into passing lanes on defense, the Warriors are almost unstoppable (the third quarter with Portland Monday is a prime example).
As long as the Warriors have an athletic defensive player in the middle and a small forward who can rebound, defend, and play physical, a Curry-Ellis backcourt can work.
4 – Add Defense on the Wing
{AUTHOR_BOX}Do this at small forward and the Curry-Ellis combo stays. Don’t and no matter what else the Warriors do it won’t be enough. David Lee is not a good defender at the four and he isn’t going anywhere, not with that contract. Curry and Ellis are small, but pesky and very good at forcing turnovers.
Wright has been fantastic on offense, but he’s not the player the Warriors’ starting lineup needs on defense. This season he is second on the team in minutes at 38.3 a game, but if he were instead the first wing off the bench behind a more defensive-minded player he could be just as effective with the second unit in less minutes, and allow Ellis a little more rest (his 40.5 minutes per game lead the NBA).
This isn’t a demotion for Wright, it’s just an adjustment. With the Warriors’ second unit he can be the man.
5 – Don’t Spend Like a Kid in a Candy Store
The Warriors have $49.1 million committed for the 2011-12 season to nine players. Add in a lottery pick (this pick is owed to the New Jersey Nets, but lottery-protected) and they have two second-round picks (they could have another from Jersey, but it’s top-55 protected so will not).
They will clear the Troy Murphy contract off their cap and the following will be free agents: Vladimir Radmanovic, Reggie Williams, Acie Law, Al Thornton, and Jeff Adrien. Lou Amundson has a player option worth $2.4 million and Charlie Bell an Early Termination Option worth $4.1 million, both of which must be decided on before June 30th.
In a normal offseason the Warriors would have a little cap space to play with, though probably nearly the same amount as the Mid-Level Exception. However, since the collective bargaining agreement is expiring it’s unknown what they may have available to fill out the roster.
Here’s the thing – they don’t need much. The tweaks to the roster discussed in the previous paragraphs can be addressed via the draft and a trade of Biedrins, should they find one they like. What Golden State needs to avoid doing is spending money just because they can. As long as they make smart signings – like the one of Wright last summer – they will be fine.
***
Clearly the Warriors are in the tweaking stage. A little health luck, a solid draft, one good trade, and these Warriors could be in the playoffs next year.
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