Earlier this week we kicked off this season's fantasy coverage by breaking down the Atlantic Division; today we'll take a look at the Southeast Division.
Miami Heat: As I've written several times this summer, the combination of subplots in South Beach makes the HEAT one of the more interesting teams to watch this upcoming season. That is true in both reality and the fantasy universe. However, while the addition of Michael Beasley and a full season of Shawn Marion is exciting, it is the return of a healthy Dwyane Wade that really has folks in South Beach, and fantasy GM's across the country, fired up. Those hoops fans that saw D Wade strut his stuff for Team USA in the Olympics realize that "Heeeeeeeeeeeeeee's back." For the first time in nearly two years, he looks 100% healed from an assortment of injuries that have hampered him incessantly. And when he is on his game, D Wade is utterly unstoppable. He is a rare, elite talent that can take over a game by himself (or even an entire playoff series - just ask the Mavericks.) And it is Wade's well-rounded game that is so enticing to fantasy owners. He literally does it all – points, rebounds, assists, etc. However, the GM that picks Wade with his first or second-round pick would be lying if he said he wasn't nervous about the injury factor. Wade has missed 31 games in each of the last two seasons and has missed at least 20 games in three of the five years he has been in the league. Wade plays with such reckless abandon and attacks the rim ferociously whenever he has a chance, this routinely results in hard spills and inevitable injuries. Wade has never suited up for more than 77 games at any point in his career. Wade is truly the ultimate 'risk versus reward' selection…
In addition to the Mr. Wade situation, there are lots of questions need to be answered down in Miami. For instance, how will Shawn Marion perform considering he is in the last year of his contract and will be especially eager to prove his incredibly impressive career statistics aren't the byproduct of playing alongside Steve Nash within the Suns explosive offense? Make no mistake, Matrix has been one of the most productive and consistent fantasy players of his generation, but he is entering a brave new world without Nash and D'Antoni by his side. And even in Phoenix, there were signs of possible slippage. Last season, he averaged fewer than 17 PPG for the time this decade. Worse yet, he shut it down shortly after being shipped off to Miami. It will be interesting to see where he gets selected in drafts this fall.
The other wildcards in Miami are two rookies – Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers. There is absolutely no doubting Beasley's incredible basketball ability, but word on the street in the days leading up to the draft was that Pat Riley was extremely worried about The Beezer's immaturity and character issues. Nonetheless, Riley apparently felt Beasley's prodigious talent was too tempting to pass up and nabbed him. Fantasy owners should do the same thing. That is one of the beautiful aspects of fantasy hoops – you don't have to worry about chemistry or bad behavior. (This is why Isiah Thomas would have actually been a pretty good Fantasy GM). Instead of wondering whether Beasley will be hiding out in hotel room closets to avoid the police, check out the numbers he posted at Kansas State last year as freshman. They were more impressive than Kevin's Durant's stats coming out of school. Still, Beasley won't have free reign to shoot every time down court like Durant did with the Sonics last season. Beasley will have to pick his spots and defer to Wade and Marion. Still, Beasley is the odds on favorite to win Rookie of the Year and will be an enticing selection on draft day.
The other Miami rookie to keep an eye on is Mario Chalmers. The HEAT currently have two other PG's on the roster in Marcus Banks and Chris Quinn, but if Chalmers can prove he is ready to handle the responsibility of running point for an NBA team, he will be a great value pick late in your draft.
Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks were the darlings of the NBA for a brief moment last spring when they took the eventual NBA champion Boston Celtics to seven games in the first round. In the offseason, they lost one restricted free-agent (in a well-publicized move, Josh Childress signed with Olympiakos in Greece), but they were able to retain their most electrifying and most potent fantasy performer – Josh Smith.
Smith's upside is downright scary. Every season he keeps on getting better. Last year was the third consecutive season in which his scoring, assists, FG%, and steals all increased from the previous season. Moreover, he was the only player in the NBA to average at least 2.5 blocks and 1.5 steals. You will have to pay a pretty penny to land him on draft day, but he is most certainly worth it.
Another stud fantasy producer on he Hawks is Joe Johnson. And while JJ gets some respect league-wide, I feel he doesn't get enough love in fantasy circles. Consider this: Johnson was one of only three players to average at least 20 points, 5 assists, and two made three-pointers per game in 2007-2008. And I think Johnson is ready to take his game to an even higher level next year. Now that he has a taste of the playoffs, where he excelled, he'll want more. Ditto for Al Horford. Horford deserved to win the Rookie of the Year award last season. He is a one of the special young players in this league and will be averaging a double-double for the next decade or so.
One player from the Hawks I am going to avoid is Mike Bibby. We have seen Bibby's production drop dramatically the last few seasons. Worse yet, he is stuck on a Hawks team that has a bevy of PG's that will be scratching for PT and cutting into Bibby's minutes. The list of point guards on the Hawks roster includes Acie Law IV, newcomer Flip Murray, and Speedy Claxton (who is apparently healthy for the first time in a long time.) Considering Bibby will be a free-agent at the end of the season, the Hawks may want to find out if Law is the answer long-term this year…
Washington Wizards: It doesn't take a fantasy "expert" to realize that Gilbert Arenas should be avoided like mortgage-backed securities. When healthy, Gillie is an absolute fantasy monster. For a two year stretch starting in 2005, Arenas was one of the five best fantasy players on the planet. But then the injuries bug bit, and Gilbert has yet to fully recover.
Last month, Gillie underwent knee surgery for the third time since April of 2007. At first it was reported that Arenas would just miss the first few weeks of the season. Then it was at least a month. When we will actually see Gilbert back on the floor is anyone's best guess. I am often tempted by star players that slip on draft day, but I won't go near Gilbert unless he falls into the later rounds, which he won't. Somebody in each league will gamble on him relatively early, hoping/praying that he will come back in early December and remain healthy. I don't see that happening. Personally, I'd be surprised if he plays in more than 35-40 games. One of your top 5 picks missing the half the season is a lot of to overcome. (While Arenas is sidelined, Antonio Daniels and Dee Brown will share the PG duties.)
One player I am willing to reach for Caron Butler. Butler is another one of those guys who perpetually flies under the radar. Based on overall per-game statistics, Butler was a Top 10 performer last season. His well-rounded game is fantasy gold. Yes, he is an injury risk as well (he has missed an average of 22 games the last two seasons), but with Arenas out of the lineup, Butler should continue to compile incredible numbers.
And speaking of jaw-dropping stats, Antawn Jamison is another Wizards fresh off a career-year. How often do you see someone average a double-double (21.4 points and 10.2 rebounds) and knock down 1.5 three's per game? Jamison, who was just rewarded with a huge contract, will be hard-pressed to match last season's output, but he is certainly still a valued fantasy asset.
Charlotte Bobcats: The Bobcats are a tough team to figure out. They are full of youngsters, but will be coached by Larry Brown, who is known for his preference for veterans. From a fantasy perspective, the team is somewhat tough to predict due to the return of two lottery picks from years past: Sean May and Adam Morrison.
Despite being a former #3 overall pick, Morrison no longer fits cleanly in the 'Cats puzzle. Charlotte is loaded at the wing positions with Jason Richardson, Gerald Wallace, and Matt Carroll. Jared Dudley also saw some quality minutes off the bench last season. Morrison will have to prove his ACL is completely healthy and play some defense to receive PT in Larry Brown's world. Sean May, on the other hand, doesn't have nearly as many impediments in his way. I am going to keep a close eye on May during the preseason. If it appears he is moving well, I plan on earmarking him with "sleeper status" and taking a flier on the big guy come draft day. If he can stay on the floor, he should be able to see quality minutes alongside Emeka Okafor upfront.
Outside of these question marks, there are plenty of solid fantasy options on this roster. J-Rich is a beast, who led the NBA in three-point makes last season. Emeka Okafor played in all 82 games last year, averaging 13.8 points and10.7 rebounds while shooting 53.5% from the floor. Gerald Wallace is a stat-sheet stuffing monster when he can stay on the floor, but always seems a heartbeat away from a bad landing that will cost him a month.
The Bobcat to avoid in drafts next month is point guard Raymond Felton. Felton put up quality overall numbers last year, but he also averaged nearly 38 minutes per game. Back in June the Bobcats used their lottery pick to select Texas PG D.J. Augustin, who will significantly eat into Felton's PT.
Orlando Magic: I'm going to come right out and say it: If you play in a nine-category fantasy basketball league, DO NOT draft Dwight Howard. Period. I have seen mock drafts that where Howard has been selected in the Top 5. That is way too high. In leagues that count turnovers and FT%, he is the most overrated player in the sport. Now, before you claim I am "hating" on D Howard, let me explain.
First off, I am very well aware of just how dominant he is. In real life, he is arguably the second most-coveted player in the NBA. If you gave real-life NBA GM's any player to build a franchise around, Howard would be right near the very top of every single wish list. And besides his enormous potential, his stats are already phenomenal.
Superman, (or should we call him Ironman because he has never missed a game in his entire career) averaged a mind-boggling 14.2 rebounds, 20.7 points (on 60% shooting), and 2.2 blocks per game last season. As a point of comparison, Shaq never averaged 14 boards a contest in a given season, and Timmy Duncan never averaged 13. In fact, since 1980, there have been only three other players to average over 14 rebounds and 20 PPG in the same season: Charles Barkley, Moses Malone, and Hakeem Olajuwon. Not bad a sign when you are keeping Hall-of-Fame Company as a 22-years-old.
Yes, the jaw-dropping 20/20 double-doubles are amazing. As are the 2.2 blocks per game and the 60% shooting from the field. But at the end of the day, Dwight Howard doesn't help your bottom line nearly as much as you may think. The despicable free-throw percentage (he actually shot a lower percentage from the line {59%} than he did from the field), combined with the league-leading 11 attempts per game, is an anchor than will sink your team in roto-leagues. In addition, the turnovers are a killer. Many, many players with more balanced all-around games are more beneficial to your fantasy health.
Moving on, if we are discussing the Magic, we also have to shout-out Hedo Turkoglu. Coming into last season, Hedo was an after thought. The Magic had spent about $10 billion to bring in Rashard Lewis as their starter. And Magic fans were excited about a frontline featuring Lewis, Tony Battie, and Dwight Howard. Thus, fantasy leaguers had little use for Hedo and he went undrafted in many leagues. But when Battie tore his left rotator cuff and was pronounced out for the season, the Magic stuck Turkoglu in the lineup and hoped for the best. What they got was a breakout season of epic proportions. Hedo averaged career-highs in every statistical category. In fact, he was one of just five players in the NBA to average at least 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists this season. Who were the other four? T-Mac, Vince Carter, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James. Not bad company to keep…
Can Hedo reproduce that phenomenal stat line? Probably not; but if he can even come close, that will satisfy many a fantasy GM. There has been some talk about Turkoglu coming off the bench next season, but I don't see it happening at all. The Magic played very well with Hedo starting, so I don't see them mixing it up that much. Also, keep in mind that Hedo can become a free-agent at season's end, so he will be extra motivated playing for a big contract.
