HOOPSWORLD continues its preview of the 2008-2009 fantasy hoops season with a look at the Southwest Division, the best division in basketball.
I'll dissect the Hornets, Rockets, and Mavericks. The always entertaining Steven Jones (sjones@hoopsworld.com) will wrap things up with his unique take on the Spurs and Grizzlies.
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New Orleans Hornets: If we are going to discuss the Hornets, we have to start with Chris Paul. Simply put, CP3 produced a season for the ages last year. He finished the 2007-2008 NBA season averaging 21.1 points, 11.6 assists, 4 rebounds, 2.7 steals, and 1.2 made three-pointers per game. He shot 48.8% from the field and 85% from the free-throw line. For some perspective, let's look at how those stats stack up historically: In the 61-year history of the league, there have only been seven players to finish a season with averages of at least 20 points and 10 assists… CP3 also led the league in steals. Since the NBA began tracking steals as an official statistic back in 1972, no player in history has ever averaged 20 and 10 while also leading the league in thefts. The last player to lead the NBA in steals and assists was John Stockton back '91-'92…. The only true point guard to win the MVP since Magic Johnson was Steve Nash, who took home the honors in both '04-'05 and '05-'06. Compared with Nash's best seasons, including his back-to-back MVP campaigns, Paul averaged more points, equal to or greater assists, more rebounds, far more steals, and fewer turnovers. Basically, CP3's stats are like Steve Nash's numbers on steroids... Paul became the first player in over 25 years to lead the league in assists while still averaging fewer than 3 turnovers per game… No player, other than Paul, has ever averaged double-digit assists and just 2.5 turnovers or less in the same season…I could go on and on, but you get the idea. Chris Paul should never last past pick #3 in any draft this month.
The other stud on the New Orleans roster is David West. West rarely receives the respect he deserves, but this kid is a beast that just keeps getting better and better. Not only does he score over 20 points and grab 9 rebounds a night, he also averaged 1.3 blocks and nearly a steal a game. Moreover, he was remarkably efficient, shooting over 48% from the floor and 85% from the stripe. If you can nab West with your third-round pick, be thankful.
The Hornets third-leading scorer last season was Peja Stojakovic. If Peja can somehow manage to play 77 games again, as he did last season, he is a very valuable fantasy commodity due to his three-point marksmanship. However, the chances of that happening are slimmer than Heidi and LC from the Hills making up and once again becoming BFF's.
New Orleans starting center is rebounding machine and alley-oop recipient, Tyson Chandler. After the Chicago Bulls gave up on him and essentially sold him to the Hornets, Chandler has experienced a career resurgence running alongside Chris Paul in New Orleans. Last season, Tyson was one of just four players in the NBA to average over 11 points and 11 boards. He also shot 62.3% from the floor, second only to Andris Biedrins.
The Hornets big addition this summer was two-time champion James Posey. However, do not even consider adding Posey unless you play in a very deep league. Posey is one of those guys that are much better in reality than fantasy. The 31-year-old averaged just 7.4 points and 4.4 rebounds last season. (Interestingly, his averages actually dipped to 6.7 points and 3.6 boards in the postseason). Both Posey (the sixth-man) and starter Mo Peterson are risky fantasy plays who both will likely see too few minutes to be significant contributors.
Houston Rockets: If you feel like rolling the dice, feel free to add a couple of Rockets to your fantasy roster on draft day. Between Tracey McGrady, Yao Ming, and Ron Artest, questions marks abound regarding health, ability to stay healthy and/or sanity. Despite these issues, there is a reason why many analysts are predicting the Rockets to advance deep in to the playoffs. It is because when healthy and on their game, these three are extraordinary basketball players.
When he actually in uniform and not streetclothes, Yao is as good as any big man in The League. The problem for Yao has been staying on the floor. He once again missed a healthy chunk of the 2007-2008 season, marking the third consecutive campaign in which Yao has missed at least 25 games. He is now averaging just 53 games played per season since 2005. However, when in the lineup, he is incredibly efficient (over 50% from the floor and 85% from the free-throw stripe) and undeniably effective (a consistent 20/10 guy). But Yao's propensity for injuries means you will have to keep your fingers crossed during the season.
Speaking of injury-prone… Hey, T-Mac. How are you feeling, buddy? Usually McGrady plays a few regular season games before the injury bug bites. But this year he decided to get right to it. Here is an except from the Houston Chronicle this past weekend:
The time is fast approaching when the hum of concern over Tracy McGrady's readiness for the Rockets' Oct. 29 season opener could become a blaring alarm bell. "What's most important is to be healthy toward the end of the season," McGrady said after Saturday's workout. "If I'm not ready to go in the first couple of games, then that's just the way it is. This is something you can't rush. I would like to be out there with my team come the 29th. But, you know, if things don't go right, then I can't be out there."
McGrady has played just 12 minutes in the Rockets' first six exhibition games…"I just wanted to see where I was at," McGrady said. "Obviously, I was a little bit behind where I wanted to be. That's why everybody got on the same page, meaning the doctors, the trainers and the coaches. It's best for me to just rehab and strengthen my leg."
McGrady underwent surgery on his left knee and left shoulder on May 6 and has not taken part in any drills that involve contact since training camp started on Sept. 30. "I'm getting there,' he said. "It's a process. I'm still recovering from knee surgery, so I'm taking this thing easy. We've got an 82-game schedule ahead of us."
Needless to say, McGrady is not worth gambling on at this point. He is clearly looking at the big picture, i.e. finally winning a playoff series. Expect him to take it easy and rest up for the second half of the season. Bump him down even further on your cheat sheets.
With Yao and T-Mac injury issues, Ron Artest may be the safest Rocket to add to your roster on draft day. Artest usually behaves himself for the first season with a new team. And he will become a free-agent next summer, so he is also playing for what could be the last big contract of his career. With Shane Battier also dealing with a nagging foot injury, Rick Adelman will likely give Artest all the minutes he can handle.
Lastly, if you find yourself in need of a PG late in your draft, Rafer Alston could make for a solid value pick. His FG% is dreadful, but he will provide you points, assists, and steals.
Dallas Mavericks: The Mavs have been one of the most dominant teams in the entire league this decade. They have won at least 50 games each and every season this millennium. However, it appears as though Dallas may currently be cascading down the wrong side of the bell curve. It is hard to imagine that it was only a couple of years ago that the Mavs were up 2-0 on the Heat and seemingly cruising towards a stranglehold win in Game 3. But after Wade took them out of commission, and then the Warriors shocked them the following season, the Mavericks franchise has yet to gain their equilibrium.
Nonetheless, Dirk Nowitzki continues to put up solid and satisfying fantasy numbers week after week, year after year. He rarely explodes for 50-point games or 20-rebound nights, but he always goes about his business of stuffing the stat sheet. While he may not be the most exciting pick on draft day, there is not doubt that he is a sure-fire first rounder. Don't let him slip past the seventh pick in your draft.
The rest of the Mavericks roster is open to far more conjecture. The move for Jason Kidd at last season's deadline seems to have backfired, as the Mavs got whipped by the Hornets in the opening round of the playoffs; J-Kidd got flat-out embarrassed by Chris Paul. However, while many fantasy sites have spent the last few weeks writing Kidd's epitaph, reports of his demise may be greatly exaggerated. Remember, Kidd was averaging over 11 points, 10 dimes, and eight rebounds through 51 games with the Nets. When he first came to Dallas, he struggled with Avery Johnson's system. But new coach Rick Carlisle will look to employ an uptempo offense that should suit Kidd perfectly. Kidd will have free-reign, and considering how low he is being drafted, I can certainly envision him out-performing his average draft position.
However, I can't be quite as bullish about Josh Howard. The super-athletic swingman possesses the skill-set to be a fantasy freak, but who knows if he can keep his head on straight. Howard is coming off a season in which he posted career-highs in points, rebounds, and assists. If he can find a comfort level in Carlisle's system, and get out and run with Kidd, he could be in store for a big season. But will he be able to curb the off-court incidents? Will they affect his game? We shall see. All things considered, I would be willing to roll the dice for the right price.
If you are looking for a sleeper, keep an eye on Brandon Bass. The organization loves this kid. If he ever got significant minutes, he would be waiver-wire worthy. One Maverick to avoid is Jason Terry. His points, assists, rebounds, and FG% all dropped last season. He'll have big games from time to time, but his inconsistency is maddening. Let someone else select him.
Also, certainly steer clear of Dallas's two-headless monster at the center position. Erick Dampier and DeSagana Diop will eat into each other's minuets and render each useless from a fantasy perspective. And since we are on the subject, let me once again bash the Mavs for signing Diop to a five-year, $31 million dollar contract. This ranks as the worst signing since Isiah Thomas donated all that money to Jerome James' bank account. Funny thing is, Jerome actually has better career numbers than Diop. There is simply no justification for handing a below-average big man that type of paper. Who, exactly, were the Mavs bidding against? Diop's career averages are 2.1 PPG and 3.9 rebounds. He had recorded a grand total of three double-doubles in his entire career. He is a 43.3% career shooter from the floor (it's tough to miss that often when you are that tall) and 51% from the free-throw line. He has never scored more than 11 points in an NBA game and he has a grand total of two double-doubles in his eight-year career! Remember, he has been in the league seven years now. This is not a 19-year old kid with huge upside; Diop has firmly established his ineffectiveness. Yet, for some reason, the Mavericks decided to hand over $31 million dollars?
Memphis Grizzlies: The roster presents a series of classic Jekyll-Hyde scenarios. Each promising fantasy player possesses an evil twin teammate who offers a lesser version of the same package. Here are a few of the most intriguing pairings.
Good Twin – Hakim Warrick: The Syracuse product averaged 16.9 points and 6.9 rebounds in 30 games as a starter, mostly after Pau Gasol's mid-season exile. It's hard to see either Pau's brother Marc or Antoine Walker taking many minutes away from Warrick this season, so he might help fill your scoring/rebounding voids even if he doesn't do much else statistically.
Evil Twin – Darrell Arthur: Also a big-time college player with NCAA championship experience and athleticism to spare, Arthur hasn't done anything particularly "evil" yet, but his lack of experience makes him unlikely to contribute much this season.
Good Twin – Mike Conley, Jr.: His first-year numbers were startlingly similar to what Deron Williams did as a rookie. Second-year point guards are usually a solid bet to step up their games, especially if they struggled through injuries (Conley missed 29 games last season) while stuck on a lousy team. Conley could easily come through with averages around 17 points and 7 assists this season, which would place him among the top 50% of fantasy point guards.
Evil Twin – Kyle Lowry: Like Conley, a super-athletic point guard with a great pedigree, though minus the Olympic athlete father. Lowry did little to distinguish himself statistically last season, and may not get the playing time necessary to figure things out in 2008-09 as he's not enough of a true point guard to supplant Conley in the first five. He'd be more valuable if he learned how to shoot (43.2% from the field, 69.8% from the line, 36 threes made in 82 games).
Good Twin – Rudy Gay: One of the biggest fantasy surprises of last season, Gay gave his owners plenty to smile about by averaging 20.1 points, 6.2 boards, and 1.4 steals while hitting 134 threes in 82 games. He was one of the league's most consistent forwards and may get even more scoring opportunities if the Grizzlies run more this season.
Evil Twin – Antoine Walker: The team's highest-paid player may also be its least productive. 'Toine was once a big-time offensive talent like Gay, but that wave crested in the early part of this decade and is now crashing down.
Good Twin – O.J. Mayo: As a horribly biased USC fan, I'm probably guilty of overrating Mayo's pro potential. I maintain that 15 points per game and about 125 threes are not out of the question, though his turnovers may be too high for comfort.
Evil Twin – Marko Jaric: He played just well enough in occasional three-game bursts last season that some unlucky fantasy owners kept him on their rosters due to a lack of options. At this point in his career, though, you can't even call Jaric a good-stats-on-a-bad-team bargain.
Even More Evil Twin – Javaris Crittenton: A 6-5 pseudo-point like Mayo, Crittenton has thus far done nothing to distinguish himself statistically. He likely won't get the chance to do anything more in Memphis, as the odd man out in a crowded backcourt.
Good Twin – Darko Milicic: At least he can block shots (1.63 per game in only 23.8 average minutes last season).
Evil Twin – Marc Gasol: Some fantasy owners will probably be unable to resist giving him a try after his admittedly impressive performance in the Beijing Olympics. I remain skeptical, especially when examining the first-year statistics of a slew of other foreign big men. Don't be fooled by the last name.
Good Twin – Quinton Ross: He really should be listed under a category like "Mediocre Twin." I just wanted to underscore the slight distinction between him and . . .
Evil Twin – Greg Buckner: It's unlikely that any team possesses two all-field, no-hit players equivalent to this pair. Both averaged around 4 points per game last season and contributed nothing else statistically because "defensive stops" isn't a category. Neither Ross nor Buckner should appear on any fantasy roster at any point this season unless it's in a 25-team league.
This Jekyll-Hyde breakdown, while imperfect, just sorted out in less than 12 paragraphs the four potentially worthwhile fantasy players on Memphis' roster. It could be a rough year down South, but at least now you're prepared.
San Antonio Spurs: With Gregg Popovich playing the role of Ebenezer Scrooge, this decade's Spurs have never handed out many presents to fantasy owners. And since NBA players rarely find themselves compared with Dickens characters, let's run through the rest of the roster as it stacks up against the classic A Christmas Carol.
Bob Cratchit = Tim Duncan. Both men served uncomplainingly under grouchy, unappreciative employers. Both wound up on top at the end: Cratchit with his familial and domestic bliss, plus the giant Christmas turkey that Scrooge hooked him up with, and Duncan with the undying affection of sportswriters and true fans the world over. Fantasy owners should also be happy when Duncan posts his usual 20 points, 11 boards, and 2 blocks this season – he doesn't appear to be wearing down.
Tiny Tim = Manu Ginobili. Tiny Tim couldn't walk; neither can Manu for the first two months of the season, thanks to summer ankle surgery. Of course, Dickens' favorite tot could only dream of putting up 20 points, 5 boards, 5 assists, 2 threes, and 1.5 steals per game when healthy – all numbers that Manu reached last season. He may not attain those same heights again, so be cautious with him when he returns to the court in early January.
The Ghost of Christmas Present = Tony Parker. This Ghost started out jolly and happy, but grew older during the night and was the first to warn Scrooge of his imminent demise. Popovich probably understands this when he examines Tony's stats and sees how they've plateaued at around 19 points and 6 assists per game, while his games played have dropped somewhat (from 80 to 77 to 69 in the past three seasons). Parker is only 26 but has already played 7 seasons, and fantasy owners must be a little curious as to how much longer he can steadily produce.
The Ghost of Christmas Past = Michael Finley. At this point, Finley reminds Spurs fans and fantasy owners of the love they've lost, in the same way that the first Ghost who visited Scrooge brought back visions of all the good times the old man had left behind. Sure, Finley's 10.1 ppg and 132 threes in 81 games were better than nothing last season, but he'll never hit his old peaks again, and his graceful aging into a supporting role is both poignant and a little sad.
The Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come = George Hill. This ghost said nothing, merely escorting Scrooge on a terrifying stroll to his future grave. Hill will serve the same purpose this season, playing rarely but terrifying Spurs fans and fantasy owners alike as a constant reminder of their mortality: just think, when Parker and Ginobili ride off into the sunset, this guy takes over! Keep an eye on the future, San Antonians!
Jacob Marley = Bruce Bowen. Any fantasy owner would rather listen to Marley rattling his chains all night than deal with another season of Bowen taking up roster space. Like Marley, he's an unhappy reminder of better times. Amazingly, Scrooge treated his former business partner with a little more respect than the Spurs have shown Bowen; at least Ebenezer never hired a new partner, while Popovich brought in Ime Udoka to fill Bowen's role without batting an eyelash.
Fezziwig = Kurt Thomas. Scrooge's kindly old apprentice-master was great for morale and full of wisdom, offering the same veteran steadiness that Thomas has brought to his past few NBA destinations. Unlike Fezziwig, Thomas has a little left in the tank, averaging 6.3 points and 7.2 rebounds in limited minutes at age 36 last season. He actually isn't a bad stopgap for a fantasy owner in need of rebounds.
"The spirits have done it all in a single night!" Scrooge famously proclaimed, before departing for the Cratchit household a changed man. We are unlikely to see such a transformation from Popovich at any point this season, but if the next 82 nights work out significantly better than the predictions above, he too may have reason to start looking at life a bit more optimistically. Fantasy owners, though, can look over this roster, mull over Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker, and then dismiss the rest with a nice "Bah! Humbug!"
