Fantasy: Tracking Trends From Week 1
By:
Steven Jones
Last Updated: 11/7/08 1:38 PM ET
| 3144 times read
Tony Parker's Big Score – Everyone wants to celebrate TP's double-nickel against the T-Wolves, and rightly so. But it's even more astonishing to examine the big picture of what Parker is accomplishing this season. He has more than doubled his career scoring average in four games this season, averaging 33.3 points per game after scoring at a 16.1 per clip in his previous seven campaigns. Even if you subtract the 55-point explosion, he was averaging 26.0 per in his first three games, after putting up 18.8 per game last season.
If Mr. Longoria can keep this up, he'll be in rarefied company. Here are a few guards who recorded this kind of scoring increase between seasons during their careers.
Jerry West: 17.6 ppg (1960-61) to 30.8 ppg (1961-62)
Nate Archibald: 16.0 ppg (1970-71) to 28.2 ppg (1971-72)
Calvin Murphy: 17.6 ppg (1976-77) to 25.6 ppg (1977-78)
Michael Jordan: 28.2 ppg (1984-85) to 37.1 ppg (1986-87; missed all but 18 games with injury in 1985-86)
Kevin Johnson: 9.2 ppg (1987-88) to 20.4 ppg (1988-89)
Tim Hardaway: 14.7 ppg (1989-90) to 22.4 ppg (1990-91)
Kobe Bryant: 27.6 ppg (2004-05) to 35.4 ppg (2005-06)
Most of these players saw the increase come in their second or third years as pros (West, Archibald, Jordan, Hardaway). Johnson benefited from a trade that led to a starting role. The best comparisons for Parker, who fits into neither of the previous categories, are Murphy and Bryant, both of whom saw their increases come relatively late in their careers. Parker is currently 26 years old and in his eighth season; Murphy was 29 and in his eighth year when he made his quantum leap, while Kobe was 27 and in his 10th.
Parker is obviously getting more shot attempts than he ordinarily would thanks to Manu Ginobili's injury absence, but it's fair to give him some credit for having improved as a player from last season to this one. He might continue to score at this clip at least until Ginobili returns after the new year. If he keeps it up for the full year, it'll be worth monitoring whether he can become a perennial 20-point scorer the way Murphy did (averaging just over 20 ppg over the next two years). It's unlikely that he'll become the next Kobe, but he can certainly jump a level from his previous performance.
There's really not much of a precedent for what Parker is doing. A fourth- or fifth-round pick in most drafts, expected by many to slip statistically, he's offering first-round value to all of his fortunate owners right now. Fantasy GMs wondering whether to sell high should give him at least a couple more months, because he's doing something that few others have managed.
Chicago: The New Rose City – Most optimistic observers expected Derrick Rose to spearhead the Bulls' resurgence, but few anticipated he'd force himself into this kind of leadership role so soon. Four games into the season, Rose leads the team in scoring (17.8 ppg), assists (4.2), and minutes (35.2 per game).
The last rookie to lead his team in assists and minutes was Chris Paul in 2004-05, and obviously Bulls fans and fantasy owners alike would be thrilled if Rose's career arc followed CP3's even remotely.
The last rook to lead his team in assists, minutes, and points? Damon Stoudamire, in 1995-96 for the Raptors. His fantasy season was nothing to sniff at, either: 19.0 ppg, 9.3 apg, 4.0 rpg, 133 threes made. If Rose could manage that, it would make everyone pretty happy.
Before that? It was a guy who also played for Chicago, way back in 1984-85. Name of Michael Jordan. Reason to feel optimistic, Chi-town faithful?
Action Jackson – Stephen Jackson leads the league in threes made, with 15 makes in five games for a tidy 3.0 per game. His secret? He also leads the NBA in attempts, with 9.8 (not a typo) jacked up per contest. He's launched 12, 11, 8, 9, and 9 threes in Golden State's five games.
Captain Jack could easily make history at this rate. The highest attempts-per-game total since the NBA introduced the three-pointer in 1979-80 belongs to Baron Davis, who hoisted an amazing 8.7 per game in 67 games in 2002-03 (he hit 2.8 of them per night). Jackson can easily surpass that average at his current rate. He'll have his work cut out for him, though, if he wants to better the all-time record for average makes per game – 3.4, set by Ray Allen in 2004-05. If he has to launch more than 10 threes per game to make it happen, though, his owners may start to wonder if it's worth the cost to their shooting percentages.
Steal You Blind – Miami rookie Mario Chalmers leads the league in steals, with 3.75 per game. The last rookie to lead the league in thefts is a great trivia question, but we'll save you the trouble: Brevin Knight, who swiped the ball 196 times on the way to a 2.45-per-game average in 1997-98.
Chalmers has an outside shot at breaking the all-time mark of 3.7 per game, set by Alvin Robertson in 1985-86. Robertson was only a second-year player at the time, so it's clear that thefts are often a young man's game. Wherever Chalmers finishes historically, he has surely delighted the fantasy owners who grabbed him in the 11th-13th rounds or off the waiver wire.
Cleaning the Glass – Portland's frontcourt tandem of LaMarcus Aldridge and Channing Frye stands a combined 13 feet, 10 inches tall and averages 6.8 rebounds per game (4.3 for Aldridge, 2.5 for Frye). Anyone starting either of these center-eligible softies has to be hurting on the boards. By the way, Aldridge averages 35.3 minutes per game, while Frye checks in with 15.0. So each of them corrals almost a rebound every seven minutes on the court.
Some other memorable seven-footers with rebound allergies from recent years:
Bill Wennington, Chicago, 1995-96 – 2.5 per game in 15.0 minutes
Stacey King, Chicago, 1991-92 – 2.6 per game in 16.1 minutes
James Edwards, LA Clippers, 1991-92 – 2.8 per game in 20.0 minutes
Brad Sellers, Chicago, 1987-88 – 3.0 per game in 27.0 minutes
Fred Roberts, Milwaukee, 1990-91 – 3.4 per game in 25.8 minutes
Danny Ferry, Cleveland, 1995-96 – 3.8 per game in 32.7 minutes
Cliff Robinson, Detroit, 2002-03 – 3.9 per game in 34.9 minutes
Cliff Robinson, Portland, 1996-97 – 4.0 per game in 38.0 minutes
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, LA Lakers, 1988-89 – 4.5 per game in 22.9 minutes
A few thoughts:
• This research is still in its preliminary stage, but an initial scan of the available data suggests that no power forward or center in NBA history has ever grabbed as few rebounds as Aldridge while playing over 35 minutes per game. He is in uncharted waters here.
• The Bulls apparently had something of a soft spot for these players in the late '80s and early '90s. It's pretty fortunate they never had to face a great center in the Finals.
• Cliff Robinson was probably the king of this category for players 6-10 and over. If Aldridge turns out like Uncle Cliffy, it may just push Blazers fans (already struggling to adjust to life with the perpetually-injured Greg Oden) over the edge. Yes, Cliff had a few nice years, but his 20-plus scoring averages always seemed cancelled out by his inability to do anything else. Fantasy owners hope this wasn't the precedent for Aldridge.
• It was a little mean to include Kareem on this list, especially since it was his 20th and final season. But it was worth investigating if only to find out that he actually made the All-Star team that year. If another center ever pulls that off while averaging less than five boards per game, it will be a bigger upset than USA-Russia in 1980. And if anyone ever compares LaMarcus Aldridge to Kareem again, it will be a bigger upset than Truman over Dewey.
The good news? Only one writer from this site listed Aldridge as a 2008-09 Fantasy Sleeper. So unlike when Truman beat Dewey, most of us saw this coming . . .
About the Author: STEVEN JONES
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Steven Jones is a Fantasy Basketball specialist for HOOPSWORLD, which powers HOOPSWORLD.COM, HOOPSWORLD Magazine, and the Basketball News Report.
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Comments (2 posted)
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posted By Dany, 7 November 2008 7:08:15 AM
"And if anyone ever compares LaMarcus Aldridge to Kareem again, it will be a bigger upset than Truman over Dewey. "
haha, he did good 2night tho, and hes also had 2 some tough competition in his first few games. I got him on my fantasy team so Im making excuses 4 the guy lol
posted By Steven Jones, 9 November 2008 8:52:10 PM
Oh, don't worry - I have Aldridge too. Though it was nice to see him figure out how to hit the boards the other night. I hope it sticks.
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