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Poised To Upset: West

By: Wendell Maxey   Last Updated: 3/25/09 3:32 PM ET | 1990 times read
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If there is ever a time to imitate the Golden State Warriors, it's in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs.

Back in 2007, the Warriors became only the third eighth seed to upset the number one seed – the Dallas Mavericks - and the first since the opening round went from best-of-five to the current format. But two seasons later, three teams (sorry Mavericks) are set to prove you don't necessarily have to be an eighth seed to pull off a first-round shocker.

Here's who looks "Poised To Upset" in the West (based on today's records):

Utah Jazz: If you are the Utah Jazz, there historically appears one logical way to make it out of the first round: face the Houston Rockets. For the past two postseasons the Jazz have gotten the best of the Rockets winning in 2006-07 in seven games and last season 4-2 to advance to the Western Conference Semifinals.

Life didn't get any easier for Houston on Tuesday night when Utah got the best of them – again. That's one first round scenario the Rockets probably don't want to see. Then again, with the standings in the Western Conference changing daily, there remains a chance Utah will draw San Antonio in the first round. In that case, the odds may be stacked heavily against Utah. The Spurs have owned the Jazz during the regular season (2-0) with a final regular season match-up scheduled in San Antonio.

Heading into the playoffs, Utah is finally in the position where they are at full strength – certainly not a typical occurrence this season. And with the Jazz receiving steady play across their starting-five, it's hard to sleep on Utah in the first round.

Surely winning the first round comes down to drawing Houston. Utah doesn't want to see the Spurs.

Portland Trail Blazers: The Blazers are one of those teams opposing clubs out West don't want to see in the first round. Not only are they young but Portland - who is poised to make their first postseason appearance since the 2002-03 season - is also resilient. They haven't won a league-best 15 games when trailing by double figures for nothing.

Winning on the road against Western Conference playoff bound teams is a different story. Portland is merely 1-12 on the road in that category.

So how can the Blazers advance to the Western Conference Semifinals? Secure homecourt advantage by winning the Northwest Division over Utah and Denver. Achieve that goal and a first-round upset is possible.

The Blazers 28-7 home record is tied for fifth-best in the NBA and a win Thursday against Phoenix would mark Portland's best 36-game home record since the 1991-92 (29-7) season. And while the road woes are well known, Portland is 8-3 against the West's nine (still have to include Phoenix in the postseason equation for now) top teams, with four of the Blazers six remaining contests against those nine slated for the Rose Garden.

New Orleans Hornets: New Orleans is more than a two-man team. Now they have to show that in the first round. While head coach Byron Scott knows what to expect out of Chris Paul and David West once the postseason hits, the same can't be said about an injured core that includes Tyson Chandler (left ankle), Peja Stojakovic (bad back) and Morris Peterson (left foot) – who has played well in spurts since missing six weeks. So even with Chandler and Stojakovic on the mend, New Orleans' first round success may come down to the Hornets' supporting cast.

Rasual Butler – who has played in all 68 games for the Hornets, including 60 starts - is having a career-season. He is averaging 11.5 points on the year, as well as career-high 3.3 rebounds per game. Hilton Armstrong has started 18 games this season in the middle during Chandler's absence, recently recording 12 points, a season-high eight rebounds and career-high four blocks against Minnesota. Julian Wright, who started nine straight games at small forward, put up 8.2 points and 4.1 rebounds in 22.7 minutes in that stretch.

Let's not forget about James Posey either. He's struggled from three-point land of late (3-20 in his last five games), but Posey still owns an impressive postseason resume and has the knack for hitting big shots.

Now with the NBA regular season coming to a close, it's hard not to talk about the postseason. Just imagine the chatter if another team pulls a Warriors and an upset in the first-round. Could those plans be in Utah, Portland or New Orleans' playoff future?

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About the Author: WENDELL MAXEY
Wendell Maxey is an NBA Writer for HOOPSWORLD and has appeared on NBA TV, NBA Radio on SIRIUS, and ESPN Radio. Wendell has covered the NBA for the past five seasons in New York, New Jersey and Portland and is a member of the Professional Basketball Writers Association. You can reach him at wmaxey@hoopsworld.com.

Comments (3 posted) Post your comment
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posted By Josh Hopp, 25 March 2009 11:28:59 PM
Nuggets are getting out of the first round this time round and thats all there is to it.
posted By That'sLaughable, 26 March 2009 12:56:04 AM
You're probably right Josh. Only if the star player of the team they're playing is injured though. Otherwise the top teams would be salivating to play them.
posted By Ron, 26 March 2009 11:50:14 AM
I will agree with you about UTAH / ROCKETS ; as a long time lifetime Rocket lover, i fear Utah in the 1st round no matter our seed. BUT If the Trailblazers do in fact win thier division and get home court advantage in the first round...why would winning that series be considered "an upset"? There are only two teams in the West who might be "expected" to win thier first round series- LA and SA. And I'd say SA only if they win thier division and get the 1st round home court. Additionally, There is only one team in the West who ought to be expected to lose thier first round series... the Mavericks in the 8th seed vs. LA. Other than that; these teams are all so even and so close anything can happen and home court will likely be the determinent.



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