Playoff Preview: Blazers vs. Spurs
The 4-5 matchup in the NBA's rough Western Conference isn't set in stone yet, but the percentages say the two teams involved will be the Portland Trail Blazers and the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs would be coming into this series with tons of experience in the pressure cooker of the playoffs, but they also come in sans guard Manu Ginobili and with big man Tim Duncan hurting. The Blazers seem to be peaking right now.
Point Guard – Steve Blake vs. Tony Parker: Blake's biggest problem is guarding fast point guards, so a matchup with Parker isn't something that favors Portland at all. Parker has kept this Spurs team in shape the past couple months with all the team's injuries and has the potential to do the most damage. Blake will have to make his three-pointers to keep Parker honest on defense and not allow him to help in the post. Advantage: San Antonio.
Shooting Guard – Brandon Roy vs. Roger Mason: Mason has been a fantastic pickup on the cheap for the Spurs and he has the potential to score some points against Portland, but if you are the Blazers don't you hope this is how the Spurs try and score, as opposed to relying on Parker and Duncan so heavily? Roy should be able to get just about any shot he wants against Mason, but Portland must honor his presence on the three-point line. Advantage: Portland.
Small Forward – Nicolas Batum vs. Michael Finley: Batum may be young and athletic, but Finley is experienced and wily. The rookie has shown flashes of brilliance offensively but defense is really his bread and butter. Look for Batum to keep Finley in check and stick to him like glue outside of the paint. Advantage: Even.
Power Forward – LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Matt Bonner: Bonner is a very difficult matchup for Aldridge because of his three-point shooting; very few players will force Aldridge out of the paint all the way to the deep line on defense. Of course, on the other end of the floor Bonner will not be able to defend Aldridge, who will need to be able to quickly recognize double-teams and find the open man. Advantage: Portland.
Center – Joel Przybilla vs. Tim Duncan: This one may seem like an overwhelming Spurs edge, but it's not as far as you might think. Przybilla will make Duncan work for everything he gets and has the ability to keep the future Hall of Famer off the glass. If Przybilla gets in foul trouble Duncan will draw rookie Greg Oden, so he might be looking at a pretty physical series. Still, he is Tim Duncan. Advantage: San Antonio.
Bench – Outlaw/Oden/Rodriguez/Fernandez vs. Gooden/Hill/Bowen/Udoka/Oberto: Point guard is a position neither team is completely comfortable with on the bench. Portland has the most dynamic scorer of the group in forward Travis Outlaw, but the Spurs have better defenders. Portland has still gotten the edge in scoring in their three wins this season against the black and silver, but the potential of forwards Bruce Bowen and Ime Udoka to physically defend a player like guard Rudy Fernandez should be of concern. Advantage: Portland.
Coaching – Nate McMillan vs. Gregg Popovich: Unlike the rest of this team, the playoffs are hardly foreign to McMillan - both as a player and a coach he led the Seattle SuperSonics deep. His challenge will be passing on the kind of preparation needed to his exceedingly young team; only Blake has NBA playoff experience in the regular rotation. Popovich, though, is a master. He's been there, done that, and has the rings to show for it. The Spurs are widely being considered as done, but he'll find some way to pick apart Portland – he always does. Advantage: San Antonio.
Caveat: If Portland wins Wednesday against the Denver Nuggets at home AND the Houston Rockets loses to the Dallas Mavericks in Dallas, this 4-5 matchup will be Houston and San Antonio. Other than that in just about all possible circumstances this matchup will be Portland and the Spurs, it's just a matter of waiting out Wednesday's games to see who gets homecourt. Portland has already won in San Antonio this season, but the Spurs are tied for the fourth-best road record in the league – so it's a wash.
Final Prediction: Blazers in Six
Leave your prediction in the comments below!
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Comments (12 posted)
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posted By Smith, 14 April 2009 5:16:21 PM
I thought Przybilla went to the playoffs with Milwaukee too. Anyway, kudos on the prediction, I don't think SAS can do much without Manu in the postseason. Timmy will have his work cut out for him. Parker is really the only one we have to worry about. You hit all the points right on the head Jason...nicely done.
posted By Paul, 14 April 2009 6:09:11 PM
You're really ready to call this before we even know the seedings? Spurs could be the 3 and totally avoid the players, be the 4 playing the Rockets, and worst of all you are calling the series without even knowing who has HCA. You really think the Blazers will go into AT&T and win game 5 and then win a close out game against the veteran Spurs in game 6? Or be able to take 2 games in SA, since you point out the Spurs are the 4th best road team in the league (Blazers are a very good home team too).
I don't even understand why this article is written. Can't you wait 2 days? If the Spurs are 4, they win in 6 or 7, and if they're 5 they probably lose in 7. Or they might be playing NOOCH and this entire post is irrelevant. Was there really NOTHING better to write about today???
posted By Paul, 14 April 2009 6:10:24 PM
And give TP9 a lot more love than you're showing. IF this series happens, he's averaging 27 and 7 against the feeble Blazers PG D.
posted By Steve Kyler, 14 April 2009 6:24:07 PM
With the Playoff set to start on the 18th, in order for us to get all the previews in, and not bury the site in previews, we choose to start these this week, based on what we know at the time they are due... so unless something changes, this is how we see it...
posted By jeremy, 14 April 2009 6:26:49 PM
if Blazers does face Spurs, i reckon they would put Batum on Parker and use his length to bother Parker. without Manu the Spurs really need a third scorer, either Finley or Mason must step up big offensively. Bowen could be a key to Spurs as whether he can shut down Roy.
posted By ryan (nuggets fan), 14 April 2009 6:56:10 PM
spurs likely will pull this one off... just like timmy hitting a 3 against suns in game 1 last yr...
spurs in 6 or 7
posted By Rocketfan2503, 14 April 2009 6:56:50 PM
My boy Rudy Fernandez will be the X-Factor and be the deciding factor. Future Star man. I hope...haha. I just love that dude to death. One of my fave five.
posted By Jason Fleming, 14 April 2009 8:24:00 PM
Trust me, I give Parker his due - he was an Honorable Mention on my MVP Award Watch yesterday. That guy is amazing. And honestly, I think Portland could win this on the road...though as you point out, if SA has homecourt that would mean that homecourt really meant nothing in the series. And I am committing to reworking the article if the 4-5 matchup changes.
posted By dkwp, 14 April 2009 10:39:26 PM
the spurs played below their lofty standards in the playoffs last year when Manu was injured and they went to the conference finals. somehow when the playoffs get here they just come out with gusto.the three pointer by Duncan mentioned earlier and the 7th game against the hornets are prime examples of their post season magic. i think they will make it to the second round at least.
posted By Jason Fleming, 15 April 2009 9:56:00 AM
Also want to add - Spurs have the worst home record of all 8 Western Conference playoff teams. Four East teams are better, plus Chicago will be better with a win tonight. They are tied with Miami and even the Phoenix Suns going into tonight's games.
posted By dkwp, 16 April 2009 9:49:52 AM
last nights last second tie and subsequent victory over the hornets in ot is just another example of the spurs playoff magic ok, ok,almost playoff.
posted By Paul, 16 April 2009 4:38:48 PM
As predicted, an unnecessary and superfluous article. If, on the off chance, these teams meet in the Conf. Finals, a totally new preview will be required anyway. Nice work.
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