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NBA Trade Watch: Top Eight Candidates

By: Eric Pincus   Last Updated: 5/16/09 9:19 PM ET | 21462 times read
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With two Game 7's on tap, the NBA Draft Lottery this Tuesday and many, many variables yet to be decided, there's still time to look ahead at potential trades.  For teams where losses came more frequently than wins, projecting player movement through the rebuilding process can be more entertaining than the actual games.  Here are top eight players most likely to be traded (technically a dozen) before the 2009/10 NBA Season gets underway:

1) Jamal Crawford, Golden State Warriors - Coach Don Nelson was outed late in the season for telling Jamal Crawford to opt out of his contract or the team would look to trade him.  Crawford has until the end of June to make his decision and can't be traded until he refuses his early termination option.  If he does it early enough, the Golden State Warriors can trade him near the draft.  If Jamal decides to wait until the deadline, the earliest the Warriors can trade him is on July 8th after the moratorium period is complete.

Crawford has two years left on his deal for a total of $19.4 million.  Looking at the economy of the NBA, there doesn't seem to be any way he'd make that sort of money as a free agent.  Opting out makes no financial sense for Jamal which, if Nelson is true to his threat, would put Crawford on the market.

Jamal is a high scoring combo guard capable of huge nights.  In late December he poured in 50 against the Charlotte Bobcats.  While Crawford has a good reputation as a locker room guy, he's not much of a defender. 

Teams saving for the summer of 2010 to spend are probably going to shy away from taking on Jamal's deal.

2) Shawn Marion, Toronto Raptors - The Raptors have a key free agent in Shawn Marion.  They traded away Jermaine O'Neal midseason to get Shawn, but that was more about getting out from under O'Neal's massive salary than investing in Marion.  The Raptors would like to keep Shawn at a reasonable dollar but does Marion want to stay north of the border on a team that doesn't appear close to championship contention?

The problem for Marion is finding a team willing to spend their cap money on a 31-year old whose athleticism has always been one of his greatest assets.  Considering between 3-5 teams will have the space to offer him a deal higher than the mid-level but will probably look elsewhere, Marion is probably going to need a sign-and-trade to get paid.

That means he'd be reliant on the Raptors finding a package they'd be willing to pay for in return.  Marion would be a great fit for the Warriors and the Raptors certainly need a high scoring perimeter player.  Would they be willing to invest in Jamal Crawford?  Offensively that might work but a backcourt of Jose Calderon and Crawford aren't going to get many stops.

Marion can't ink a sign-and-trade deal until July 8th.

3) Jerry Stackhouse, Dallas Mavericks - Owner Mark Cuban is always in "Win now" mode.  The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a disappointing second-round series against the Denver Nuggets but still have a potent roster.  While there may be a lot of discussion surrounding the contracts of Erick Dampier and Josh Howard, Dallas has a juicy asset to throw around in Jerry Stackhouse.

How many trades this past year were strictly monetary decisions?  While Stackhouse is well past his prime and missed nearly the entire season; his $7.25 million has only $2 million guaranteed.

Typically an expiring contract is attractive to a team looking to dump a player with a multi-year deal.  In the case of Stackhouse, Dallas may be able to pick up a player in the final year of his deal making slightly over $9 million.  The receiving team can simply cut Stackhouse on or before August 10th to benefit from up to $7 million in immediate savings.

This could help a team get further under the salary cap or for a team well over the luxury tax threshold, a net savings up to a massive $16 million.

Expect the Mavericks to make a deal well before the second week of August is complete.

4) Earl Watson (and Chucky Atkins), Oklahoma City Thunder - The cliché says the hardest two positions to fill are point guard and center.  While that's not always true, Earl Watson is a veteran guard in the last year of his contract playing for a young team that simply doesn't need him.  He defends well, looks for his teammates and is relatively low maintenance. 

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The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the few teams with significant cap room this summer.  In addition to Watson's $6.6 million contract, Chucky Atkins is only guaranteed $760,000 of his $3.48 million salary.

The Thunder can spend on the free agent market.  They can make deals where the incoming salaries are far greater than the outgoing.  They can cut Atkins to increase their own cap space or send him out in trade (either alone or with Watson).  With a bright young roster including Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City could vastly improve their team this summer.

The Thunder should have plenty of callers from teams looking for fiscal saving and/or a veteran point in Watson.  Both players are eligible to be moved at any point this offseason.

5) Darko Milicic, Memphis Grizzlies - The Grizzlies are in a similar position as the Thunder.  They have plenty of cap space and a number of bright young pieces (O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay, Mike Conley and Marc Gasol).

Where they didn't the growth and consistency they were looking for was from Darko Milicic.  Darko is in the last year of his deal, making $7.5 million.  He's still young enough (almost 24) to entice a team looking for a versatile seven-footer. 

His contract is 2010-friendly and could help the Grizzlies add in some badly needed veteran leadership to a team just starting to show its potential.

Now there's no guarantee that Memphis will use their cap space this offseason.  Last year they gave an offer sheet to Josh Smith but ultimately the Atlanta Hawks matched.  The Grizzlies went into the year under the cap and used their space to make a number of small moves - mostly for small financial gain.

If they're banking on the talent-rich pool of players in 2010, then keeping Milicic until he expires may be the move.  That said, fans are impatient and the Grizzlies should have plenty of opportunity to go shopping.

6) Bruce Bowen (plus Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas), San Antonio Spurs - The Spurs were uncharacteristically booted in the first round by the Dallas Mavericks.  Playing without Manu Ginobili (ankle) was too much for the team built around their big three of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Ginobili.

It's somewhat tricky to anticipate the Spurs' next move.  Are they content sticking with the existing (aging) roster and hoping good health makes the difference?  Will they wait until 2010 when Ginobili is a free agent, looking to add one more All-Star to the Duncan/Parker duo?

If not, the Spurs have three viable trade assets in Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas.  These were some of the players San Antonio was offering to the Los Angeles Clippers at the trade deadline for Marcus Camby.  

Bowen's $4 million salary is only half guaranteed until August 1st.  Oberto's $3.8 million has just the $1.9 million locked in until June 30th.  Thomas is fully guaranteed but is in the last year of his $3.8 million deal.

Clearly if the Spurs sent out their two backup big men, they'd need to have a plan to add size.  Whether it's directly in return for trade or a free agent target like Orlando's Marcin Gortat, San Antonio wouldn't be able to count on Matt Bonner as the only big man playing alongside Duncan.

With so many teams looking to lower their luxury tax payments, Bowen and Oberto would be very attractive.  Once cut they could provide somewhere in the neighborhood of $3.9 - $5.95 million in immediate saving, perhaps double considering the tax.

Both could end up back on the Spurs roster at a discount.

7) Chris Kaman, Los Angeles Clippers - Speaking of the Clippers, the phone will ring all summer for Camby.  He's in the last year of a highly incentivized contract and is still among league leaders in rebounding and blocked shots.  Of course, that's why LA wants to keep him.

The future for the Clippers is pretty hazy at this point.  If they land the first pick in the 2009 NBA Draft, they likely take Blake Griffin and may be more apt to trading away veteran talent.

Equally they may give this disappointing group of players another chance with the hopes that if they come to training camp in good shape, last year may be nothing but an anomaly.

You probably won't find a lot of fans who support that notion.  Should the Clippers decide to tinker, the guy they'll probably start with is Chris Kaman.  While Chris has had some strong years, he was injured most of the 2008/9 campaign and has yet to live up to his eight-figure salary.

Kaman is set to earn $10.4 million this year which isn't egregious for a center.  L.A. is overstocked up front.  Size is always a premium in this league and the Clippers may get some interesting offers before all is said and done - it's just that they're going to have to turn away a lot of Camby calls before they find a viable taker for Kaman.

8) Travis Outlaw (and Sergio Rodriquez), Portland Trail Blazers - The Trail Blazers are the definition of up and coming.  Last year they almost made the postseason.  This year they tied the Denver Nuggets and Spurs with the second best record in the Western Conference (54-28).

The playoffs would end with a six-game loss in the first round to the Houston Rockets.  Despite the disappointing finish, the future looks bright for Portland.

The Blazers head into the offseason with all their core of players under contract and enough cap room to outspend teams armed with the Mid-Level Exception.  In addition to cap space, the Blazers can dangle athletic small forward Travis Outlaw who is under contract for just $3.6 million. 

Technically the team can waive Outlaw (and point guard Steve Blake) before June 30th, after which their contracts become fully guaranteed.  Additionally, point Sergio Rodriguez hasn't been satisfied with his role and wouldn't mind relocation.

Perhaps a bold move would be to waive Outlaw and Blake outright to give the Blazers serious cap room.  That just doesn't seem likely considering Blake's role as a veteran on the squad and Outlaw's raw talent.  (Of course, had the Grizzlies not inked Darius Miles, un-retiring his $9 million on the Blazers cap, Portland's summer might have looked differently, but there was no way around that for the Blazers.)

Portland may find plenty of veteran talent available for an Outlaw/Rodriguez package, especially if they can take in more salary without having to match by using cap space (after July 8th).

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About the Author: ERIC PINCUS
Eric Pincus is a member of the Professional Basketball Writers Association and has covered the NBA for HOOPSWORLD for five years, powering HOOPSWORLD.COM.

Comments (18 posted) Post your comment
Please be respectful of the writers in your comments or they will be removed
posted By Shaq786, 17 May 2009 3:16:00 AM
Bynum, walton, two '09 secound round picks, and farmar... for baron davis and blake griffin (if clips land the first pick)
posted By andrew, 17 May 2009 3:17:00 AM
I think the clippers trade Camby, not Kaman. Kamans stock is low and rightfully so. Camby can help any contender and be a good locker room presence. The Clippers are wasting his talents and time (im a clips fan).
posted By sal, 17 May 2009 3:57:13 AM
there is no way lakers or clipers do that .... but bulls should look into not keeping ben gordon.. look into a sign and trade with la clippers bg and the 16 and 26 picks for camby or kaman thts whats upp!!!!!
posted By Neil, 17 May 2009 10:34:23 AM
Raps go after either Gordon or after Crawford this off season... Either way if the raps don't get a high powered 2 guard it will be yet another wasted season...
posted By Eric Pincus, 17 May 2009 11:26:40 AM
If the Clippers trade Camby - I'd expect that to be well into the season. He's too valuable to what they have planned - and too reasonably paid to dump him early. If it goes to pot and the season is a loss - then I would think Camby - but this article is on the offseason.
posted By Eric Pincus, 17 May 2009 11:27:40 AM
While Marion for Crawford makes a lot of sense - I'm not sure the Raptors want Jamal's money - especially how quesitonable they'd be defensively in the backcourt. I wouldn't be suprised if they took a chance but equally - it may be a longshot.
posted By Pete, 17 May 2009 12:53:13 PM
What is Portland's actual cap space, because everybody says they only have around 7 million, but Steve Francis 17 million and Raef Lefrentz 13 million are both coming off now. Combine that with the smaller contracts on the team that are coming off and that's a huge amount, isn't it?
posted By Eric Pincus, 17 May 2009 6:57:50 PM
Assuming the cap lands at $59 million, the Blazers would have about $8-9 million in cap.
posted By Saleem, 17 May 2009 7:18:10 PM
@ Pete. Portland will probably only have 6mil in cap space assuming they keep their draft pick in the first round. Plus they still have to decide on the guys they have overseas. IMO this is the last summer that PDX will have to add a significant free agent/trade because their young core players contracts start to escalate. I think they should really consider targeting an established SF (Josh Howard if healthy) to stabilize the position. I would think Dallas would like to add the athletes that PDX will be letting walk anyway especially since many of them could be had on one year deals. Howard's deal could be terminated after next season if it didn't work out, making him a trade piece for 2010. I know that every one says they need a PG upgrade but with Bayless and Kopoennen for the future and with Roy with the ball as the closer I'm not sure they look outside for another 1guard.
posted By Fiona (OC ), 18 May 2009 2:39:58 AM
Hey Eric Pincus, Give a girl a Chris Kaman trade proposal.
posted By jdstorm, 18 May 2009 6:49:46 AM
hey eric, what about this trade, if the pistons feel like blowing up their roster. Pheonix send Shaq to the pistons, JRich and Barbosa to the warriors. + mabye swapping a 1st round pick. Golden state send crawford and magette. to pheonix + a pick or wing depth to detroit. detroit send Prince to pheonix, and take back some extra salary with lots of 2010 cap space. so Pheonix would be rebuilt Nash, Crawford, Prince, Amare and lopez while drafting a PG. Golden state would have a talent upgrade, and an extra gaurd, and detroit would still be under the cap, slashing payroll but taking 1 last shot with shaq and TMAC,(another trade thats in my head)
posted By Jason Fleming, 18 May 2009 1:10:00 PM
Saleem - I would be shocked if Portland even considered bringing in Josh Howard.
posted By Shintaro Go, 18 May 2009 11:48:40 PM
how about rafer alston?
posted By Saleem, 19 May 2009 9:56:49 PM
@Jason. I realize that PDX is still about distancing themselves from guys with character issues. Howard though would be (again if healthy) a high reward low risk acquisition. He's insurance against Websters health and progress, he's an upgrade over Outlaw, he's got a contract that can be terminated in one year, and he can probably be had for some combination of Frye, Outlaw, Sergio and/or the surplus of picks that PDX can't use because of roster limitations. I agree it probably won't happen. Mainly because it makes too much sense as an NBA trade. :) Nevertheless from a basketball standpoint that's the type of SF they need IMO to really become a championship team.
posted By @ Saleem, 20 May 2009 3:23:57 AM
Josh Howard is too small to play SF in Portland. He's only 6'5" and aside from that, they don't need another SF, especially one like Howard the Pothead. I think they wait on that position to see what's up with Webster. They need to address the PG position first.
posted By MasterofPanic, 20 May 2009 1:09:55 PM
Hey Shaq786 - do us all a favor and stop posting your delusional trade proposals. Go watch the WNBA and stop comin in here tryin to play with the big boyz.
posted By neilan, 22 May 2009 5:54:41 PM
@ saleem, if Dallas was looking to get rid of Howard (which their not)... his height would not deter portland in the least. He is Dallas' best wing defender. His offense is more efficient than anyone at the SF position in portland... and the Mav's just win a lot more games when he's healthy.
posted By Saleem, 25 May 2009 8:18:10 PM
@ neilan. You mean @@saleem right? LOL :)



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