Playoff Preview: Lakers vs. Nuggets
When the season started absolutely nobody picked the Denver Nuggets to qualify for the Western Conference Finals. The fact the team qualified so quickly and had five days off waiting for the winner of the Houston Rockets and the Los Angeles Lakers second round series is nothing short of remarkable. That said, the Nuggets now face by far their most difficult challenge of the season when they kick off the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday in Los Angeles against the Lakers.
The Nuggets come into the series with the highest point differential of any team in the league having lost only two games in the postseason thus far. The Lakers, on the other hand, have been the definition of inconsistent. However, when truly tested the Lakers have answered the call.
The question is whether or not the Lakers' casual attitude in certain games will eventually come back to bite them. Heading into the Western Conference Finals the Lakers are the more talented team from top to bottom, but the Nuggets are playing better basketball. In the final analysis, this has all the makings of a very compelling series.
Here's a look at how the Lakers and the Nuggets match-up heading into Tuesday's Game 1.
Point Guard - Chauncey Billups vs. Derek Fisher
Billups may be the most important player to his team in the NBA Playoffs thus far. He has a near perfect feel for all of his teammates and a unique synergy with his coaching staff. On the flipside, Fisher was downright awful against Aaron Brooks and the Houston Rockets. That said, Billups might actually be a bit better of a match-up for Fisher considering he's not nearly as quick as Brooks. Both players are veterans and both have hit many big shots in the playoffs. All things considered, though, Billups is the better player and will get the better of this match-up. Not sure whether it's a good thing for LA or not, but you can rest assured Fisher remembers what Billups did to him in the 2004 NBA Finals when Billups was a member of the Detroit Pistons. Edge: Denver.
Shooting Guard - Dahntay Jones vs. Kobe Bryant
Jones has become an irritant on the defensive end who gets under the opposition's skin with his physical play. He'll clearly have his hands full with Bryant who has seen just about everything going up against the likes of Bruce Bowen and Raja Bell over the years. Jones won't be the only defender who sees time on Bryant as Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith likely will, too. No matter who the Nuggets put on Bryant the reality is that no one player is going to stop him. And truth be told, the Nuggets likely aren't too concerned with trying to stop Bryant. Expect the Nuggets to attempt to play Bryant one-on-one as they did Dirk Nowitzki in round two. The Nuggets believe their chances to win go up if Bryant is shooting more and setting up his teammates less. Edge: Los Angeles.
Small Forward - Carmelo Anthony vs. Trevor Ariza
One could make an argument that no player has been more impressive than Anthony so far in the postseason averaging over 27 points on 47 percent shooting, six rebounds and four assists. He's coming off a series in the second round where he averaged 30 points on nearly 50 percent shooting. Ariza's combination of length and quickness has the potential to bother Anthony defensively. In addition, Ariza's ability to hit the three-point shot will keep Anthony on his toes on the weakside defensively. If Anthony can force the Lakers to send a double-team as both the Hornets and the Mavericks had to in the first two rounds it will really open things up for the Nuggets on the offensive end. Expect Melo to get the better of this battle. Edge: Denver.
Power Forward - Kenyon Martin vs. Pau Gasol
Say what you want about Kenyon Martin's bloated contract, but K-Mart has reinvented himself this season into a defensive-minded, physical presence. Although Nowitzki put up great numbers in the second round, Martin made him work for everything he got and was a big part of the reason why the Nuggets rarely felt the need to send a double-team. That said, Gasol's length has given Martin and the Nuggets trouble in the past. The Nuggets will do their best to be aggressive with Gasol early and knock him off his spots, but his length will be problematic. In the final regular season match-up of the season between the two teams Gasol grabbed an astonishing 12 offensive rebounds. Chris Andersen's presence off the bench will be huge, but Martin has got to make a point of keeping Gasol off the boards as much as possible. Edge: Los Angeles.
Center - Nene vs. Andrew Bynum
Bynum is a huge wildcard in this series. If he gets some confidence and establishes himself as a presence in the middle he could be a major factor for the Lakers. If he doesn't, they could find themselves in some trouble. Nene absolutely abused Erick Dampier in the second round after a very pedestrian performance in round one against the Hornets. When the Nuggets make a concerted effort to get Nene involved on the offensive end it usually results in a better effort from him defensively and on the boards. The Nuggets need Nene to play big and power through Laker defenders as opposed to using little flip shots around the basket and waiting for the referees to bail him out. Based on what we've seen so far, Nene has had far more impact for his team in these playoffs averaging almost eight more points and four more rebounds than Bynum. Edge: Denver.
Bench
Early in the season most around the NBA said the Lakers had the deepest team in the league. However, in the postseason Denver's bench has been every bit as good. Obviously, Lamar Odom -- who has started a number of games in the postseason and could be inserted into the starting lineup at any time -- is the Lakers' most important reserve. If the Lakers choose to, they can play three seven-footers at the same time all at their natural positions. This length on the defensive end has the potential to cause problems for Denver by forcing them to settle for too many jumpers defensively. Aside from Odom, though, the Lakers' bench really hasn't been great. Sasha Vujacic and Jordan Farmar have been extremely inconsistent. Luke Walton has been steady but won't win a game for you. Shannon Brown's minutes decreased in the second round and it will be interesting to see how much run he gets against Denver given that his size could prove advantageous against Billups defensively.
For Denver, J.R. Smith is an absolute X-factor. If gets hot he can change the complexion of a game in a hurry. Moreover, he was one of the few Nuggets who actually played well in last season's first round series sweep at the hands of the Lakers. Chris Andersen's presence is going to be gigantic in trying to counteract LA's length. Andersen has been great at home in these playoffs but much less effective on the road. Since Denver doesn't have homecourt in this series the Nuggets are going to need more out of him on the road than they've gotten thus far. The Nuggets need Anthony Carter's defensive energy, but they also need him to limit his turnovers. Linas Kleiza has been a virtual non-factor for Denver in the postseason thus far. If Denver can get some solid production from Kleiza it could be advantageous, but based on what we've seen so far it seems unlikely. Edge: Push.
Coach - George Karl vs. Phil Jackson
Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle said he believes the job Karl is doing this season is the best coaching job he's ever done, and there's no question he's got the collective ear of his players. He just seems to have pushed all the right buttons all season long. However, how can you bet against a guy like Jackson who has nine championship rings? If Karl can lead the Nuggets to victory it will be a huge notch in his belt, but history is on the side of Jackson. Edge: Los Angeles.
Final Prediction: Lakers in Seven
In all honesty, making a final prediction was very difficult. If the Nuggets had homecourt advantage, they would have gotten the nod considering they have won 16 consecutive games at Pepsi Center. The Lakers' inconsistency was also reason for significant pause before advancing this prediction. In the end, though, whenever the Lakers have been truly called upon to deliver a big-time performance in this postseason they have done exactly that. It wouldn't be shocking at all if the Nuggets win this series. Denver's best chance would be to steal one of the first two games and run the table at home. That said, it's hard to bet against the Lakers since they have homecourt advantage should a decisive Game 7 be necessary.
