The Oklahoma City Thunder is in a fantastic off-season situation with having the No. 3 and No. 25 picks in the draft and considerable cap space available (roughly $17 million at present). Winning the No. 1 pick would have been a Thunder dream-come-true, but most Oklahomans have accepted that Blake Griffin is history. Not happening. The team is being built around future All-Star Kevin Durant; and the 20-year old kid is undoubtedly on his way to becoming a superstar in the league.
The inaugural season ended with a record of 23-59 which doesn't tell the whole story of how promising things look for this young team. The right coach was hired after a dismal start, key players were acquired in the last half of the season, and the core players are really starting to "get" each other. See HOOPSWORLD's article "Fixing the Thunder" for a detailed look.
General Manager Sam Presti has dismantled the roster since joining the Thunder, trading and picking up players at will with clear goals in mind: draft picks, cap space and reaching the playoffs. Picture Presti now. Sleeves rolled up, smart-looking glasses in place, while reviewing, comparing, listing, calculating…and loving every minute of the work required in building this team virtually from the ground up. This is his element, his true calling. So, the million dollar question…what's he going to do with this draft and the free agency? He's made a habit out of surprising us with his many moves and does not ever show his cards, so one is hard-pressed to even speculate, but we can try.
Status of the Thunder's Current Roster
Of the three unrestricted players - Malik Rose, Desmond Mason and Robert Swift – the Thunder will sign veteran and local favorite Mason and let the other two go.
Damien Wilkins spent most of his time sitting on the bench last year and has a Player Option, which he will exercise for another year. Chucky Atkins, a nice veteran presence but a mostly unreliable back-up point guard, is the only one with a Team Option. Earl Watson, disgruntled and unproductive, has another year left on his contract. Look for at least Wilkins and Watson to disappear somehow in the off-season.
Here's who stays: Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook, Nenad Krstic, Nick Collison, Kyle Weaver, Thabo Sefolosha, Shaun Livingston, and D.J. White (the last three came on strong when added at the end of the season). So with Mason added, the Thunder have room to improve.
Thunder's Immediate Needs
First obvious immediate need? An efficient shooting guard with a 3-point threat. The abilities of guards Westbrook, Livingston, Sefolosha and Weaver have their place on the team for sure, but they don't fill the need here.
Second obvious immediate need? An intimidating center. Nenad Krstic proved to be a serviceable center in the few months he played with the Thunder, and he will definitely improve in many areas, but he's not likely to ever become an imposing interior defensive player. Veteran Collison, a natural power forward, played starting center until Krstic joined mid-season. Collison is a real hustler, a very physical "garbage man", but not the dominant lock-down Big Man they need.
Likely Draft Choices
Directly following the draft lottery, the consensus opinion was: Clippers take Blake Griffin with the No. 1 Pick, Grizzlies take Ricky Rubio with the No. 2 Pick, and the Thunder take Hasheem Thabeet with the No. 3 Pick.
Drafting Thabeet made a lot of sense given the Thunder's real need for a defensive stopper and rebounder in the middle. He's a 7'3" natural shot-blocker with great timing. But then, questions: Can he develop into more than a defensive presence? What about his questionable hands? Can he learn pick and roll defense? Does he have real desire/heart to play this game? Was the game forced upon him? IQ there? Is he more interested in partying? Is he another big man draft bust? The team does not need another big man disappointment (following Johan Petro, Mo Sene and Robert Swift). Or is drafting a player with two incredible skills, shot-blocking and rebounding, sufficient reasons to warrant the pick?
Then speculation began about OKC leaning toward drafting shooting guard 6'5" James Harden. There's not much to dislike about versatile, left-handed Harden, who has terrific scoring ability and court vision. He can pass, defend, rebound, draw fouls….all at a very high level. He'll be an immediate contributor, possessing an outstanding basketball IQ and maturity. And he's only 19 years old. Comparisons to Manu Ginobili are hard to ignore.
Soon after Harden's name showed up, Ricky Rubio's name emerged as the player who the Thunder were targeting with their No. 3 pick. Rubio's flashy point guard skills are undeniable; his value to any team seemingly unquestioned. So how does this pick make sense exactly, especially with Russell Westbrook's strong rookie year as point guard? First of all, Rubio and his camp don't look at Oklahoma City as a top-tier location that would put him front and center. How would the well-documented chemistry of the base team be affected with an 18-year-old European star expecting to be the face of the franchise? Kevin Durant already owns that face. And second, Westbrook spent all season learning this position, receiving kudos abound.
At season-end, Presti said this about Westbrook: "We feel like he had a fabulous year and we're thrilled with him and we're thrilled with his potential as a point guard." So with Rubio, do you move Westbrook to the two guard? Undersized and lacking in perimeter shooting skills, this doesn't seem like a good plan. Trade Westbrook? That would be shocking. Plus the potential backcourt tandem of Westbrook and Livingston has yet to be sufficiently explored. They could develop into a lethal combo.
DeMar DeRozan's name has been thrown around lately as a shooting guard pick – he has excellent athleticism and is great in transition, but his defensive skills and shot-making need developing. Also, there may be something interesting going on with Stephen Curry, given the fact that the Thunder scouts attended his every game last season. However, Harden's name is popping up again lately.
Another option the Thunder may think about is trading down…perhaps with the Sacramento Kings who are desperate for a point guard. They get Rubio and we get Harden with, say, Spencer Hawes. Hawes' name has been floating around, but that's a potential management and locker room conflict just waiting to happen since he can't seem to accept that the green and gold exist no more.
For the Thunder's 25th draft choice, Presti could make a straight-up pick or will he work a deal with the Pistons as recently reported by DraftExpress.com? B.J. Mullens is another big man in the draft, and it seems that Presti has taken a serious liking to him. Detroit, in free-up-money mode, may swap their 15th pick (and Amir Johnson's expiring contract) with the Thunder, who could then nab Mullens.
Free Agency Choices
The Thunder have enviable cap space on the books leaving them with many choices in the free agency season should they elect to be active there. A few available players they may consider include Marcin Gortat, David Lee, Brandon Bass, Anderson Varejao or Chris Anderson. Might Presti package Watson and Wilkins, having expiring contracts, to acquire one of these semi-affordable bigs? Or are they happy for now with the Krstic/Collison combo that was utilized down the stretch? This was a pairing that a lot of opposing teams found difficulty in adjusting to adequately. Many believe the Thunder can definitely survive next season without acquiring another big man.
If the Thunder turn to the free agency to find a strong wingman, they just may look at picking up Trevor Ariza. Chad Ford with ESPN said last week that both the Thunder and the Pistons are interested in Ben Gordon, and that Gordon would go with Oklahoma City given the two choices. Either player has certainly already proven his worth, but what figure would that be?
Based on Presti's propensity for a young roster and stockpiling picks, it does not appear that he would spend significant money right now in the free agency pool – acquiring one of the available 2010 blockbuster players is another story. Perhaps this is all in Presti's plan.
Now, briefly, back to Blake Griffin. The only (long-shot) scenario for Oklahoma City getting their hometown hero is sending Rubio to Los Angeles for their top pick and Baron Davis with his contract.
So what will the Thunder do?
It's the understatement of the year to say that by June 25th, Sam Presti will have done his homework in making his draft choices. It may not be the most popular choice, that being Thabeet or Rubio, but with their No. 3 draft pick, they should go with uber-talented James Harden. (Let the bashing of this opinion begin...Ready? Go.) Trade down to get B.J. Mullens with the late first-round pick or look at Gani Lawal. And in July when free agency begins, go ahead and get Marcin Gortat or Birdman. With so many choices available to a team already having such promising young players, and being steered by an incredibly savvy general manager, reaching the playoffs within the next couple years is inevitable.
