HOOPSWORLD
2009 NBA Free Agency Primer

By: Tommy Beer   Last Updated: 6/28/09 5:30 PM ET | 25189 times read
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It is an annual rite of summer, and it's the NBA's own version of 'Midnight Madness.'  At 12:01 am EST on July 1st, GMs across the land will start ringing doorbells, calling cell phones, and firing off e-mails, all in the hopes of landing the free-agents on the top of their wish lists…

Next Wednesday, the NBA's official free-agency period officially begins.  And the significance of this time period can not be underestimated.  While champions are officially crowned in early June, pieces of the championship puzzle are often put together in early July the previous year.  And with a few powerhouses (Orlando and Cleveland) already making monster moves, this year's free agency scrum promises to pack a punch. 

Before we get into the players available on the open market, let's examine which teams have the most cash to spend. 

*******

Last year the NBA's salary cap was set at $58.68 million.  The cap threshold has typically increased by a few million each season since its inception, but the slumping economy has adversely affected the NBA as well.  While the salary cap for the 2009-2010 season won't officially be determined until later in July, there have been strong indications that the cap might actually decrease from the previous year for the first time since 2002; possibly settling in at $57.3 million.  For our purposes, let's assume it stays relatively stable – in the $57-58 million range. 

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So, which teams are currently positioned to bid the most on the 2009 free-agent crop?  After examining each team's salary commitments it is clear there are very few teams with much of cap space available this summer.  And once you factor in guaranteed money owed to 2009 draft picks and minimum cap holds, you are essentially looking at only six teams with significant cap-room to make a run at a free agent.   Here are the teams, along with their approximate cap space in parentheses: Detroit Pistons ($18 million), Memphis Grizzlies ($20 million), OKC Thunder ($15 million), Portland Trail Blazers ($8 million), Sacramento Kings ($12 million), and Atlanta Hawks ($9 million). 

However, this certainly doesn't mean that all these teams will use the cap space afforded to them.  If history is any indicator, franchises such as the Grizzlies and Thunder are in no hurry to spend their entire allowance and bump up against the cap.  (Last season, the Grizz had the lowest payroll in the League).  As far as Sacramento is concerned, the Kings owners, the Maloof brothers, have been hit hard by the economic downturn.  And the Kings – while they have some nice young pieces on the roster - are certainly not going to compete for the title next season; so don't expect them to break the bank for top-notch, expensive talent.  In addition, Atlanta's trade for Jamal Crawford will certainly eat into their expected maneuverability.  

Thus, if you are one of the elite players in the 2009 free agent crop, you have to hope that the Pistons, Thunder, and/or Grizzlies are keenly interested and come calling. 

It should also be noted that the teams with cap space are well aware of the big picture and the potential strength of their bargaining position.  For instance, although Detroit GM Joe Dumars has the means to add two big-name free-agents next month, that doesn't mean he has to spend his entire allowance this summer.  If the top free-agents this offseason are playing hardball, Dumars has plenty of leverage.  As has been discussed in depth, the "Summer of 2010" will be historically rich in top-tier talent, (which is now less than 368 days away, but whose counting…) so saving some money certainly wouldn't hurt. And as noted above, there are so few squads with significant cap space to burn this summer.  Moreover, the Pistons need not be in any hurry to get something done.  If they ink one quality power forward/center this summer, they can comfortably head into the 2009-2010 season. Then, with the cap-space they have saved, they can pursue a trade for a big-name pending free-agent (Bosh, Amar'e etc.).  Having the ability to absorb excess salary could be very appealing, especially to a team like Phoenix which would be looking to slash payroll. 

Which brings up to another topic to discuss, it becomes a real avenue of opportunity in the weeks ahead: 'Sign-and-trade' transactions. CBA expert Larry Coon explains the benefits of the sign-and-trade to each party thusly: "Teams benefit because it allows them to get something in return for players they would otherwise lose to free agency. Players benefit because they can get a richer contract, and/or play for a team that is over the salary cap and otherwise wouldn't be able to afford them. Unlike the new team, the player's original team can use the various Bird exceptions (as long as the player qualifies) to sign the player without regard to the cap. Also, if the player's original team has full Bird rights, they can offer the player larger raises (10.5%, as opposed to 8%) and more seasons (six, as opposed to five -- see question number 46 for more information).  So sign-and-trade is a useful tool for teams that are capped-out and unable to offer players large contracts."     
 
And with so many teams over the cap, we may see far more sign-and-trades than usual this offseason.  (Please note, teams can only begin entertaining S&T scenarios on July 9th, after the seven-day moratorium has been lifted.)     

One last factor to keep in mind is the mid-level exception.  "This exception allows a team to sign any free agent to a contract equal to the average salary, even if they are over the cap. This exception may be split and given to multiple players. It may be used for contracts of up to five years in length, and raises are limited to 8% of the salary in the first year of the contract. Signing a player to a multi-year contract does not affect a team's ability to use this exception every year. For example, a team can sign a player to a five-year contract using this exception and still use the exception the following year to sign another player.  If the player is a restricted free agent with one or two years of service and receives an offer sheet from a new team, the player's prior team may use the Mid-Level exception to match the offer sheet."

********

Now, let's take a look at the available players – breaking them down by position:  

Point Guards:
Steve Nash (Not full guaranteed: owed $13.1 million for the 2009-2010 season) - Under normal circumstances, a team wouldn't ever consider choosing to cut ties with a great PG just a few seasons removed from a back-to-back MVP awards.  But these aren't normal circumstances.  Suns owner Robert Sarver's various business ventures have been hemorrhaging money and the Suns appear to be in full-scale 'fire-sale' mode, having just traded Shaq for a couple of expiring contracts, and possibly on the verge moving superstar Amar'e Stoudemire as well.  However, Nash is a huge fan favorite in the Valley of the Sun, and Sarver needs to sell season tickets, so expect PHX to hold onto Nash even if just for a few months before moving him at the February trade deadline. 

Jason Kidd (Unrestricted) – Despite all the rumblings that he is running on fumes, Kidd put together a solid 2008-2009 campaign.  Of course he isn't the elite player he once was, and he probably couldn't guard Mark Cuban at this point; but Kidd can still run an offense better than most.  Odds are he heads back to Dallas.

Andre Miller (U) – The 76ers, picking 17th overall in last Thursday's draft, were able to snag a promising young PG in Jrue Holiday.  But coming off a disappointing freshman season at UCLA, is Holiday really ready to lead an NBA to the playoffs and beyond?  Miller is a steady (if unspectacular) reliable point guard in a league that values a dependable leader.  If the Portland Trail Blazers present Miller with a solid offer, will the Sixers pony up to keep him in the City of Brotherly Love?

Mike Bibby (U) – After the Hawks traded for Jamal Crawford, Atlanta stated publically that they would still like to bring Bibby back.  But with Crawford set to make $20 million over the next two years, Joe Johnson in line for a max money offer next summer, and Marvin Williams on the open market as well – there definitely doesn't seem to be enough cash in the coiffeurs for Mr. Bibby as well.  Expect him to find a new home. 

Raymond Felton (Restricted) – The Bobcats had him on the trade market for much of last season, but he increased his stock (and possibly proved his worth?) by keying a second-half charge in Charlotte. 

Ramon Sessions (R) - Many in the media believe that the Bucks rationale for trading Richard Jefferson for expiring contracts was so they could keep Sessions (and Charlie Villanueva) in Milwaukee long-term.  We shall see if that turns out to be the case…

Jarrett Jack (R) – He averaged 17.3 points, 4.9 assists, and 3.8 rebounds over the second half of last season.

And here are most of the remaining point guards up for grabs: Stephon Marbury, Jason Hart, Brevin Knight, Tyronn Lue, Flip Murray, Ronnie Price, Luther Head, Marcus Williams


Shooting Guards:
Kobe Bryant (Early Termination Option) – Kobe's not in play - he confirmed during the Lakers championship parade that he's "not going anywhere."

Ben Gordon (U) - Gordon and the Bulls have been playing chicken for the last few years.  It will all come to a head over the next few weeks.  While he isn't a great defender and the Bulls haven't been overly successful during his tenure in Chicago, Gordon is a gifted scorer that can light up any scoreboard when he is locked in.  As with almost every quality free-agent in this class, Detroit has been linked as a possible suitor (although that would require the Pistons moving Rip Hamilton as part of the process.)  

Allen Iverson (U) – One of the league's more enigmatic superstars throughout his Hall of Fame career, Iverson's future is extremely difficult to predict.  Will he accept less money to play for championship-caliber team?  After last season's disaster in Detroit, is he now ready to accept a lesser role, possibly that of a sixth man?  Or does he still feel he deserves plenty of shots and cash?  It will be extremely interesting to see where The Answer ends up. 

Nate Robinson (Restricted) – Despite being just 5'9", Nate should probably be listed as a shooting guard.  (And when you have been in the league four years and still don't have a defined position – that is usually not a good thing.)  It's safe to assume Nate has played his last game for the Knicks.  Expect New York to move him in a sign-and-trade rather than ink him to a long-term deal, especially after the Knicks drafted FSU sparkplug Toney Douglas with the first-round pick they bought from the Lakers.  The Knicks would love to use Robinson as the bait to get a team to take on Jared Jefferies' egregious contract.  Donnie Walsh had serious discussions with the Kings at last season's trade deadline where the Knicks would have sent Nate and Jeffries to the Kings in exchange for Kenny Thomas' expiring contract

Best of the Rest: Anthony Parker, Wally Szczerbiak, Shannon Brown, Eddie House (PO), Rashad McCants (R), Joey Graham (R), Desmond Mason, Gerald Green, Dahntay Jones, Von Wafer, Juan Dixon, Marquis Daniels, Keith Bogans, Rodney Carney, Quinton Ross, Kareem Rush


Small Forwards:
Hedo Turkoglu (ETO) – It was widely assumed that the Magic would do whatever they had to do in order to bring back Turk, who was an integral part of their Eastern Conference championship-winning puzzle.  But after Otis Smith brought in Vince Carter via a blockbuster deal with Orlando, all bets are off.  Hedo is most definitely in play.  Rumors intimate that the Pistons are interested and will definitely kick the tires a bit. 

Shawn Marion (Unrestricted) – Toronto would like to keep him; but only at the right price.  He'll get plenty of interest, but is any team willing to break the bank for a guy who will be 31 at the start of the 2009-2010 season and has averaged approximately 13 points and 8.5 rebounds in 70+ games since being traded from Phoenix?  Nonetheless, Marion is still a terrific defender and intriguing all-around talent.  We shall see…

Ron Artest (U) - Ron-Ron was on his best behavior during his lone season in Houston.  The Rockets seem intent on bringing him back, but they'll have plenty of competition.    

Trevor Ariza (U) – No player has earned himself more money over the last couple months of the season than Ariza.  Trevor proved he was a capable perimeter defender and consistently knocked down important three's on the Lakers march to the title.  There will be plenty of interest league-wide; will the Lakers show Ariza the money?  

Marvin Williams (R) – Late season back issues complicate the situation.  He may go the Ben Gordon route and accept a one-year qualifying offer and become unrestricted next summer.  That may make the most sense for both Williams and the Hawks.   

Best of the rest: Linas Kleiza (R), Grant Hill, Ime Udoka, Matt Barnes, Jamario Moon (R), Walter Hermann 


Power Forwards:
Carlos Boozer (Player Option) – Carlos is amongst the cream of this free-agent crop.  The Pistons, desperate for an inside presence who can put up points in the paint, appear a very likely candidate – assuming Utah decides to go in a different direction…

Lamar Odom (U) – Long considered the "X" factor in L.A., the Lakers were essentially unbeatable when Lamar was playing up to his capability.  Can the Lakers, whose owner Jerry Buss has been averse to venturing in luxury-tax land, afford to re-sign both Odom and Trevor Ariza?  We will find out soon enough.    

Paul Millsap (R) – Most believe the Jazz would prefer to keep Millsap as their power forward of the future, as opposed to the more-expensive Boozer.  While plenty of teams will come calling for Millsap, it is safe to assume Utah would match any reasonable offer.  (But are they willing to cough $10 million per season?)

David Lee (R) – After a breakout season in which he led the entire league in double-doubles, it was assumed that Knicks GM Donnie Walsh would lock D-Lee into a long term contract this summer.  However, that was before New York landed Arizona power forward Jordan Hill with the 8th overall selection in last Thursday's draft.  Now, moving Lee via a sign-and-trade seems could be a real possibility.  

Anderson Varejao (PO) – The guys who do the dirty work rarely get appropriate credit or recognition; but those close to Cleveland know how important Andy is to the Cavs' success.  However, the last time he attempted to negotiate a contract with Danny Ferry, things got ugly.  And with Shaq in town, and Big Z now coming off the bench, do the Cavs need Varejao as much as they did a week ago?  Will LeBron lobby to make sure one of his best rebounders and defenders is kept in Cleveland?      

Drew Gooden (U) – A big forward who can bang, board, and score on the box.  He'll go fishing for some mid-level money.

Charlie Villanueva (R) – Per the description of the Sessions situation above, many believe that the Bucks traded Richard Jefferson in order to clear up the cash to re-up both Charlie V and Ramon.

Best of the rest: Antonio McDyess, Brandon Bass, Glenn "Big Baby' Davis (R), Ike Diogu (R), Chris Wilcox, Stromile Swift, Channing Frye (R), Hakim Warrick (R), Leon Powe (R), Joe Smith, Shelden Williams, Malik Rose, Steve Novak (R), Shavlik Randolph

Centers:
Memo Okur (ETO) – He'll get plenty of attention throughout the league, but it seems likely he'll land back in Utah.

Rasheed Wallace (U) - Yes, he racks up technicals, but even at his advanced age, he also piles up points, rebounds, assists, etc.  For years, 'Sheed was one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  It has been reported that he could find a home in San Antonio if he is willing to accept less than market value.  The Magic are also reportedly interested...

Marcin Gortat (R) – Superman's backup could jump at a chance to get paid starter's money and play starter's minutes.  Orlando would love to bring him back as insurance, but likely won't be able to afford his increased price tag.  In a league literally starving for size and even adequate centers, Gortat's agent will be contacted by just about every team in the NBA.

Chris Andersen (U) – The colorful "Birdman" lead the league in blocked shots per minute last season, and is one of the better help-defenders on the market.  Plenty of clubs would love to bring his energy and defense off the bench, but any club is going to have to out-bid Denver, who badly wants to bring him back.   

Some other (cheaper) free-agent big men in this summer's bargain bin include: Zaza Pachulia, Mikki Moore, Johan Petro, Rasho Nesterovic, Chris Mihm, Jamaal Magloire, Melvin Ely, Robert Swift, Theo Ratliff, Jason Collins, Saer Sene, DJ Mbenga, Calvin Booth, Lorenzen Wright, Patrick O'Bryant 

 

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About the Author: TOMMY BEER
Tommy Beer is a Senior NBA Writer and Fantasy Basketball Editor for HOOPSWORLD. An active member of the Professional Basketball Writers Association, he has been covering the NBA and the New York Knicks for the past four seasons. He has been featured as an analyst on ESPN Radio, USA Today, and NBA Radio on Sirius.

Comments (16 posted) Post your comment
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posted By csg, 28 June 2009 4:01:19 PM
who are the Magic going after?
posted By Sam, 28 June 2009 4:42:06 PM
If the spurs are able to pick up Sheed they could have one of the best lineups in the league Parker, Mason (Ginobili), Jefferson, Duncan, Sheed. IF healthy spurs will be contenders in the west
posted By @Sam, 28 June 2009 6:16:19 PM
take out 2 of the 5 and the spurs would still be a contender if their bench is capable. (mahinmi, bonner, mason, blair, finley, hill would still be there).
posted By Fanatic, 28 June 2009 6:45:19 PM
It would've been frenzied Summer of 2004: AI, Kidd, Marbury, Marion, Wallace, Artest, Bibby, Miller, Odom, Szczerbiak, Magloire, Ratliff, etc.
posted By Toolatecrew, 28 June 2009 9:26:06 PM
Detroit Pistons ($18 million), Memphis Grizzlies ($20 million), OKC Thunder ($15 million), Portland Trail Blazers ($8 million), Sacramento Kings ($12 million), and Atlanta Hawks ($9 million). So explain to me which one of those teams is going to give Trevor Ariza 8-10 M? If not why would the lakers pay more than the MLE or very slightly over? Thought so. Same goes for a guy like Ben gordon. Sure he might want 10M but who's going to give it to him. If no one else will give him 10 M why would the Bulls give it to him?
posted By Eric, 28 June 2009 9:27:16 PM
You forgot to list SG Kyle Korver who has an ETO this year.
posted By David, 28 June 2009 10:01:19 PM
Correction: Korver only has one year at $5.2 million remaining on his contract. I think he'll choose to stay and see what the summer of 2010 looks like. For the Jazz: Okur and Millsap stay, Boozer goes.
posted By Lou Ferigno, 28 June 2009 10:15:09 PM
Korver only has one year at 5.1 million left and he stated during a radio interview in Iowa that he is looking forward to seeing what he can get as a free agent. I suspect he will opt out.
posted By Tommy Beer, 28 June 2009 11:02:25 PM
You guys are correct - Korver has just one year at 5.2 million left on his current deal (Player Option).
posted By David, 28 June 2009 11:10:18 PM
According to tonight's Salt Lake Tribune, it's looking like Korver is choosing not to opt out. Okur most likely is opting out, as is Boozer. Should be interesting!
posted By J., 29 June 2009 2:57:24 AM
Deron Williams makes things so much easier for Okur and Millsap to score points. I dont think those 2 should opt out and play for another team. I would liek to see the Thunder going after Rasheed Wallace with their cap. I dont think he is going to accept less money for a shot at the ring. OKC has just as much chance in the Rasheed Wallace bid mainly because they can sign him for alot more then lets say.. the C's or the Spurs.
posted By kombayn, 29 June 2009 5:49:29 AM
The Spurs should sign Gortat, he's a perfect player for that team and would fill a need at Center which is his true position. Rasheed Wallace should sign with the Magic. It'll be an interesting off-season.
posted By Toolatecrew, 29 June 2009 5:51:04 AM
What leads you to think that Sheed only cares about $ at this stage of his career? He might be a flake but there has never been any indication of that $ grubbing type behaviour from him I can see. His teamates love him and coaches usually caomplained he's TOO unselfish rather than the other way around. Sheed has done the play for a bad team thing with the Hawks. He's got maybe 2 years left. Pop could deal with him maybe Larry brown. Scott Brooks? Not so much.
posted By sammydavis, 29 June 2009 8:51:08 AM
Sheed and the Hawks lasted exactly 1 game, so don't try to tell me he's done the bad team thing. :D He won't go to OKC because OKC won't offer him anything - he's not their long term solution and he's much more likely to go play for a contender anyway. J., as far as Okur and Millsap both opting out... Millsap can not do that, mate. He's already a (restricted) free agent as you could read in the article. ;) I cannot make predictions apart from agreeing with kombayn (and everyone else here I believe) that it will be an interesting offseason. Who knows, maybe the Magic can keep Turk+Gortat AND add Sheed. Or the Spurs could get even more scary by getting Gortat/Sheed or even AI! (Shame I'll be on holiday from 8 July.....)
posted By Huge from TO, 29 June 2009 4:09:31 PM
You forgot to include Toronto to your list of teams with capspace.
posted By ford, 9 July 2009 5:22:16 AM
a.i would be in heat or bobcats other teams than that consider it disaster go allen



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