The 2009 NBA free agency period begins at 12:01 am Eastern Time, first thing Wednesday morning. How will the balance of power shift? Can the Los Angeles Lakers retain Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom? How can the Cleveland Cavaliers fill in the gaps around LeBron James and Shaquille O'Neal? Will the Orlando Magic and Boston Celtics add the pieces needed to dominate the East? Will the San Antonio Spurs find a big to complement Tim Duncan now that they've traded for Richard Jefferson? What teams can rise from the middle (or bottom) of the back with that one key signing?
The answer isn't quite clear considering a number of players armed with opt-out clauses have yet to announce their intentions. Check here for the latest Opt-Out Updates.
Before getting to the big fish of the 2009 free agent class, it's worth noting that there really aren't many viable destinations this year with spending power. The salary cap is roughly projected to stay flat at about $58.68 million. We'll know that number for sure on July 7th, but NBA Commissioner David Stern has indicated he thinks it will be about the same or perhaps down 1-2%.
The Detroit Pistons, Oklahoma City Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers have sizable space. The Toronto Raptors, Sacramento Kings and Atlanta Hawks may be in a position to spend as well.
Once the big dollars are gone, the remaining free agents may be looking at an average salary starting at Mid-Level Exception (MLE at ~$5.6 million starting), re-signing with their own team without tremendous leverage or hoping for a sign-and-trade.
The biggest potential free agent would be L.A.'s Kobe Bryant, but all signs point to him not opting out of his contract. He could ease the financial burden of team owner Dr. Jerry Buss but doesn't appear inclined to do so. Considering the dollars the Lakers bring in on Bryant's star power, the argument can be made that Kobe isn't obligated to give the Lakers a discount.
The Magic, having traded for Vince Carter, have prepped for what may be inevitable. The buzz for some time has the Portland Trail Blazers prepared to make Hedo Turkoglu a sizable offer.
Sources say the Blazers aren't satisfied with their small forward rotation and are shopping Travis Outlaw in trade, possibly with point guard Steve Blake for a free agent point guard like Andre Miller.
Another option to join Turkoglu could be Jason Kidd, although isn't Dallas Mavericks' owner Mark Cuban obligated to keep the veteran point after giving up so much to acquire him (Devin Harris)?
Pencil in Turkoglu and Miller in Portland; Kidd back to Dallas after a flirtation with the Cavaliers, Lakers and New York Knicks.
Another team after Turkoglu is rumored to be the Pistons. While they have the spending power, they're a franchise in transition. After trading Chauncey Billups and firing head coach Michael Curry, Detroit may not be a draw for a veteran player seeking a championship.
That said, they have a ton of spending power which often trumps playoff aspirations. In addition to a possible offer to Turkoglu, the Pistons are said to have about $8 million earmarked for Trevor Ariza.
People close to Ariza say he wants to return to the Lakers "no matter what," but that's not necessarily the sentiment you'll hear from his agent David Lee.
The Lakers are facing massive luxury taxes and still consider Lamar Odom a priority. Where a big dollar offer for almost 30-year old Lamar will come from remains a mystery. The market may be softer for Odom than Ariza.
L.A. appears committed to returning both with rumors that Adam Morrison, Sasha Vujacic and even Jordan Farmar are on the block for money-saving deals.
If the Lakers were outspent on Ariza, they could turn to players like Ron Artest, Shawn Marion, Grant Hill, Matt Barnes or even restricted free agent Josh Childress.
Another team said to have money available for Ariza would be the Blazers, should Turkoglu land elsewhere.
While nothing is a lock, count on the Lakers retaining their two big free agents along with guard Shannon Brown who was an important midseason acquisition by General Manager Mitch Kupchak.
Should the Pistons manage to steal away Turkoglu or Ariza, look for Tayshaun Prince to be actively shopped in trade.
Based on the assumptions that Hedo lands in Portland and Trevor sticks in Los Angeles, the Pistons likely turn their attention to Ben Gordon.
While a Rodney Stuckey/Gordon backcourt may not be ideal defensively, they'd be a potent duo for a young team looking to reestablish itself in the East.
The Chicago Bulls and Gordon came close the past couple of seasons to deals in the $50 million range. Can they finally agree to a deal or will Detroit finally get one of their targets?
Gordon was a huge part of Chicago's success against the Boston Celtics in the first round but this team belongs to Derrick Rose.
Kirk Hinrich and John Salmons may be enough as the Bulls look to improve their front court. Speculatively, let's say the Pistons get their man.
Detroit has enough cap space to add a big man but until Carlos Boozer announces his intentions, that's a tough call.
Boozer could be their man at about $10 million a season, noting that he's still isn't 28 years old yet.
If Carlos remains with the Jazz for another year, the Pistons may turn to Utah's restricted free agent Paul Millsap.
If Utah is still paying for Boozer and re-signs Mehmet Okur who can opt out, will they have the funds to match a large offer to the younger Millsap (24-years old)?
Perhaps the Pistons go an easier route and try to sign Charlie Villanueva, who may be a MLE target for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Cavaliers are waiting to see if their own Anderson Varejao opts out and if he does, is he willing to re-sign?
Of course every true contender in the league wants Rasheed Wallace. The list includes the Magic, Celtics, Cavaliers, Spurs and Lakers. Wallace would be a fallback option in L.A. if Odom doesn't re-sign.
Whoever doesn't get Wallace may next turn to another Piston, Antonio McDyess.
Also getting a lot of interest is Orlando's Marcin Gortat. While he's a restricted free agent, the Magic aren't likely to match a big offer. Pencil in the Oklahoma City Thunder although Gortat could very well end up starting alongside Tim Duncan in San Antonio.
The Spurs also have the option of re-signing Drew Gooden.
As far as Ron Artest, he could stick in Houston although the uncertainty surrounding Yao Ming's foot injury makes it very difficult to project how the Rockets will proceed.
A number of sources say that Shawn Marion is open to returning to Toronto, despite his distaste for the weather, because that may be his best opportunity for a contract.
A few stragglers remain including Mike Bibby who may not return to Atlanta. The Hawks may be reluctant to invest in the 31-year old point guard. He could be a short-term MLE acquisition of a contender.
Expect restricted free agents Raymond Felton (Charlotte), Ramon Sessions (Milwaukee), Glen Davis (Boston), Jarrett Jack (Indiana) and Brandon Bass (Dallas) to stay with their current teams.
Unrestricted free agent Chris Andersen is likely to re-sign in Denver unless he gets a sizable offer elsewhere (which the Nuggets may not be inclined to match).
The New York pair of David Lee and Nate Robinson are both restricted. Big offers would likely get in the way of the Knicks salary cap position in 2010. Both could end up returning on the one-year qualifying offer . . . although Lee would be an excellent candidate for a team willing give a long-term offer sheet a try.
Finally, where does Allen Iverson land? That one's too tough to Answer.