1. Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavaliers finished last season with the best record in the NBA and I don't see any reason for that to change as we head into 2009-10. Cleveland added a dominant big man when they acquired Shaquille O'Neal (17.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg, .609 FG) and the additions of Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon will improve an already stiff Cavaliers defense. The Cavs have the benefit of playing in a watered down Central Division which yielded the team 13 wins (in 16 games) a year ago and I expect the team to continue the dominance it showed at the Quicken Loans Arena, where the team went 39-2 last season. Oh… One more thing: LeBron James.
2. Orlando Magic: While which teams would be in my top three was basically a given, it was very tough for me to decide which would rank where. Orlando gets the nod at number two for a couple of reasons. This Magic team can beat you in so many ways that it is difficult to take any one thing away. The addition of Vince Carter, who has suddenly started playing defense, gives the team some added scoring punch and another playmaker on the offensive end, while Brandon Bass provides some size and athleticism on the front line. This team is deeper and more versatile than the squad that won 59 games and represented the East in NBA Finals last season.
3. Boston Celtics: I'm sure I'm going to take a beating from Celtics fans for putting this team in the third slot out East but I couldn't put them in front of Cleveland or Orlando. The top three teams in the East are all capable of winning it all but I'm concerned by the Celtics lack of depth. Rajon Rondo has elevated the Celtics "Big Three" to a "Big Four" and the addition of Rasheed Wallace gives the Celtics a multi-dimensional player with championship pedigree to come off the bench, where the Celtics are so thin they make Kate Moss look like Rosie O'Donnell. It looks like Leon Powe and Glen Davis are going to be allowed to walk after a strong season for the Celtics, leaving a veteran squad an injury away from being slightly better than pedestrian.
4. Chicago Bulls: I've been taking heat for picking the Bulls this highly for quite some time but I'm sticking to my guns on this one. I love Derrick Rose and expect to see a ton of growth from year one to year two. The great players typically make a significant leap over that period of time and Rose has greatness written all over him. I know Ben Gordon is gone and he hit big shot after big shot for the Bulls when it mattered the most, but the Bulls still have some firepower. John Salmons can score the basketball (over 18ppg in his only season as a starter) and is an upper-echelon defender on the perimeter. Considering the return of a healthy Luol Deng, the improved play of Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah, and playing in a relatively weak Central Division, the Bulls are on their way to hosting a first round playoff series.
5. Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks have a very talented squad and have been one of the feistier, more exciting teams in the NBA over the last couple of seasons. Josh Smith is a high-flyer who finishes around the basket, both in transition and in the half court, as well as anyone in the league. He is also an elite shot-blocker for a Hawks team that doesn't have much of a presence on the interior. Joe Johnson can put a team on his back and carry it in spurts and with the addition of Jamal Crawford, who has averaged at least 19 points per game in each of the last three seasons, Johnson's scoring burden will be lessened next season. Atlanta plays in the competitive Southeast Division (which includes Orlando, the Miami HEAT, and the improving Charlotte Bobcats and Washington Wizards) which will make things tough, but expect the Hawks to be scrappy and tough on a night to night basis.
6. Miami HEAT: Miami made a huge leap from the worst record in the NBA in 2007-08 to 45-37 before being eliminated by the Hawks in the first round of the playoffs last season. The return of a healthy Dwyane Wade - who returned to the MVP level of play the helped the HEAT win the 2006 NBA title - lifted Miami back to relevance in the Eastern Conference. Wade, however, had little help from a HEAT roster that is in desperate need of an upgrade. Injuries have reduced Jermaine O'Neal to a shell of his former self and the six-time All-Star, who hasn't played as many as 70 games since the 2003-04 season, had arguably his worst season as a pro last year. The HEAT need a healthy and productive O'Neal as well as significant growth out of second-year forward Michael Beasley to have any shot at advancing beyond the first round of the playoffs.
7. Toronto Raptors: The Raptors suffered through a wildly disappointing 2008-09 season in which the team only won 33 games and the not-too-distant future of the organization hinges on just how well the ream responds this season with Chris Bosh (player option) in the final year of his contract. General Manager Bryan Colangelo replaced Shawn Marion with Hedo Turkoglu, who is fresh off a surprising trip to the NBA Finals with the Orlando Magic. At 6'10", Turkoglu's ability to initiate the offense, run the pick and roll, create for his teammates, and get his own shot will bring some versatility to what was, at times, a stagnant Raptors offense last season. With Chris Bosh's offensive load eased by Turkoglu and an improving Andrea Bargnani, Bosh can dedicate more energy to being a difference maker on the defensive end, where the Raptors were mediocre at best last season.
8. Indiana Pacers: I'm gambling a bit on this one but I liked Indiana going into last season before the injury bug bit the team. The Pacers finished last season just three games out of the 2009 NBA Playoffs despite losing Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy, Jr. for 79 games due to injury. Granger is a legitimate All-Star who is a force on both ends of the floor, averaging over 25 points, five rebounds, one block and one steal per game last season. Dunleavy was coming off a career season in '07-08, in which he averaged 19.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game before missing 64 games last year. The addition of Tyler Hansbrough brings some grit and toughness on the inside and Dahntay Jones provides improved perimeter defense for an Indiana club that struggled defensively a year ago. Center Roy Hibbert showed signs of maturation at the Orlando Pro Summer League and should be a contributor as a rebounder and shot blocker for the Pacers this year. Depth at the point and health are concerns for this team but, with a little luck, Indiana will be a playoff team for the first time since 2005-06.
9. Detroit Pistons: Detroit fans will likely kill me for this but, as much offensive firepower as the Pistons have on their roster, I just don't see them as a playoff team. Where do the stops come from? Detroit has a rookie head coach in John Kuester, who coached or played under some of the game's legends, including Dean Smith, Rick Pitino and Larry Brown, and while he brings a ton of experience as an assistant, making to move to the first chair on the bench can be daunting. The Pistons have lived and died by the team's defense for years and will have to try to outscore their opponents on a night-to-night basis. The additions of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva will provide Detroit with some scoring punch, but the team's ability to score will hinge largely on Rodney Stuckey's ability to get the team into the offense in the half court. Detroit will be an exciting team to watch but I don't see enough offensive talent to keep this team in the playoffs in 2010.
10. Washington Wizards: The Wizards have been, perhaps, the team with the worst luck in the NBA over the course of the past few seasons. Injuries have hit this team over the last couple years harder than any team I can remember with All-Star guard Gilbert Arenas missing 149 games over the past two seasons and Caron Butler and DeShawn Stevenson combined to miss 65 games last season. Sooner or later the luck has to fall in the favor of the Wizards but, even if that isn't this year, Washington has added more talent to a loaded roster as a contingency plan. The Wizards traded for Randy Foye and sharp-shooter Mike Miller this offseason, giving the team added offensive firepower and experience. New Head Coach Flip Saunders is a proven commodity in the NBA and will immediately bring credibility to the nation's capital, but Eddie Jordan is one heck of a coach and couldn't overcome the injury plague in D.C. With so much offensive talent it is hard to leave the Wizards out of the playoff picture but Washington is thin in the frontcourt and remains in the bottom third of the league in points allowed.
11. Charlotte Bobcats: I still want to call this team the Hornets, but I digress. Charlotte made an interesting move this week when the team traded Emeka Okafor for Tyson Chandler. Okafor has averaged a double-double in each of his five seasons in the NBA but didn't mesh with Charlotte Head Coach Larry Brown, prompting the team to swap centers with the New Orleans Hornets. The Bobcats have a young and talented roster centered around forward Gerald Wallace, one of the game's best all-around players. With a young core of players and one of the game's greatest coaches of all time, the Bobcats will be an improved team this season but two questions about this team stand out in my mind: 1) How does Charlotte get stops down the stretch? 2) Where do the wins come from within the Southeast Division? Charlotte went 5-11 against the Southeast last season and Orlando, Miami, Washington and Atlanta are all improved.
12. Philadelphia 76ers: Philadelphia has been one of the grittiest, most overachieving teams in the NBA over the course of the past couple of seasons, as witnessed by the fact that the team advanced to the 2009 NBA Playoffs despite getting just 29 games out of the team's marquee free agent signing, Elton Brand. The Sixers play as hard as any team in the NBA and have some up and coming stars in Andre Igoudala and Thaddeus Young but the loss of free agent point guard Andre Miller will be too tough for this team to overcome. Miller emerged late in his career as one of the premier ones in the league and was instrumental in the 76ers success over the past couple of seasons. Without a veteran point guard to get this team into the offense when Philadelphia is forced to play in the half court, offensive production will be tough to come by. The Sixers will scrap but wins, particularly in tight games, will be elusive for a young squad without a floor general.
13. Milwaukee Bucks: Milwaukee made a push for a playoff spot after the All-Star break last season but injuries ultimately cut the Bucks season short. Center Andrew Bogut, who was averaging 11.7 points, 10.3 rebounds and over one block per game, missed 46 games last season and All-Star and Olympian Michael Redd missed 49 because of injury as well. With those two back and healthy the Bucks will be well on their way back to playing competitive basketball. Milwaukee, however, must find a way to replace the offensive output of departed free agent Charlie Villanueva and Richard Jefferson, who was shipped to San Antonio for the expiring contracts of Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto (flipped to Detroit for Amir Johnson) and Kurt Thomas. With point guard Ramon Sessions' status with the team still in the air, the Bucks will be relying heavily on rookie point Brandon Jennings and second year forward Joe Alexander, both of whom are unproven. The Bucks aren't ready for playoff contention, but could sneak up on anyone in the league.
14. New Jersey Nets: The Nets are in the middle of a re-building process and while the team isn't ready to be a playoff contender this season, New Jersey has some bright young players around which the team can build. Devin Harris is one of the best point guards in the game and second-year center Brook Lopez had a strong showing in his rookie campaign. With arguably the two most important positions on the floor locked in for the next couple of seasons the Nets are an up-and-coming team. Small forward Yi Jianlian has all the skills necessary to develop into a solid NBA starter and rookie shooting guard Terrence Williams has a spectacular all-around game that should translate well at the NBA level. The Nets will be exciting to watch, but are still a couple of years away from playoff contention.
15. New York Knicks: New York is still a year away from being much of anything but an afterthought in the NBA as the Knicks continue to prepare for what is expected to be the best free agent class in the history of the NBA next summer. Head Coach Mike D'Antoni got a nice piece in the 2009 NBA Draft, when the Knicks picked up former Arizona forward Jordan Hill. He seems to be a perfect fit in D'Antoni's run and gun system, but Hill won't be enough to get the Knicks into contention this season. Nate Robinson and David Lee have shown to be more than capable players in the NBA but remain unsigned and their final destinations are still to be determined. With Eddy Curry and his mammoth contract still on the books and a huge question mark in terms of conditioning and durability, the Knicks will struggle to find wins on a consistent basis this season.
