Going into this season not much was expected from the 2007-08 Seattle SuperSonics. They had just lost two All-Stars, hired a new coach, and had decided to go for broke with a youth movement centered around rookies Kevin Durant and Jeff Green.
So in one sense, the Sonics shouldn't be considered a disappointment; no one really expected much in the first place. On the other hand there has also been no sense of progress, no sense that this season is merely a stepping stone to better things. Instead the Sonics are in disarray. Players are apparently grumbling about the coaching style of P.J. Carlesimo, indicating perhaps his time away from head coaching after the fiasco in Golden State hasn't changed much; either that or his players simply aren't buying into the program.
But hey, they snapped a 14-game losing streak with a Tuesday night victory over the San Antonio Spurs.
So what's the deal? There are plenty of ways to point the finger, but the one thing to remember is the Sonics weren't that good to begin with. Kevin Durant was hailed as a savior and he has played well, but he's still a rookie and can't do everything. The team has no offensive post presence and has plenty of players making decent money who really aren't involved in the rotation. And the rotation is unsettled – only Durant averages more than 28 minutes a game (33) and nine players average over 20. That's a key indication Carlesimo is desperately searching for something that works – and balancing that against building for the future.
Former All-Star Wally Szczerbiak still has his shooting touch and he's second on the team in scoring behind Durant's 19.3 points a night with 13.1 of his own – but he's only playing 23.3 minutes because he and Durant are slotted into the same position.
In the past couple of season the Sonics have been able to count on Chris Wilcox for points in the paint and rebounding, but his numbers – and minutes – are down this year after an excellent 06-07 season. Unfortunately, no one has stepped up to fill the scoring void in the post. Green has played some there, but scoring hasn't been something he's done much of, Nick Collison doesn't do that much at all, and Robert Swift – hailed as the future in the middle – has been hurt. Kurt Thomas is leading this team from the center spot and doing an excellent job on the glass, but he's no longer a scorer and can't do it all himself.
But, again, perhaps none of this should be seen as a surprise. None of these are the top reason the Sonics have struggled either. For that answer the buck stops at the point guard position, namely Luke Ridnour. Bluntly put, Ridnour has been extremely disappointing and one has to wonder what is the deal? 18 months ago the University of Oregon product had been named to the national team roster with a chance to earn a spot representing USA in Beijing; now he's playing 18.9 minutes a game being Earl Watson, when he does get to play.
It's clear the Sonics are not buyers at this year's trade deadline and instead will be quietly going about their business to get ready for the 2008 NBA Draft with a shot at bringing in a talent like OJ Mayo, Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley. But will they be sellers? Will they try and get rid of Ridnour in a market desperate for point guards?
The thing is that as bad as things are now General Manager Sam Presti has done an excellent job preparing this team for the future (whether that be in Seattle or Oklahoma City is another long story). Szczerbiak, Wilcox and Thomas are all free agents the summer of 2009, setting the team up to be cutting a massive amount of payroll in a summer expected to be full of free agents. Since it has become clear that while their contributions are nice but they aren't part of the future, the Sonics may not be in any hurry to move any of those guys unless someone makes them an offer they can't refuse.
The other players on their team who don't contribute much more than filling minutes – guys like Johan Petro, Mickael Gelabale and the aforementioned Swift – could all be gone by then too if they don't show improvement.
This probably shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, but Presti is drastically retooling this team and setting them up with cap room and fantastic young talent, much like a former coworker of his from the San Antonio days already has just 160 miles south in Portland.
Another draft as good as the one from this year that brought Durant and Green, then a year of seasoning, and the Sonics could be doing in two years what the Portland Trail Blazers are doing now.
It's dreary now, but the future is bright.