For the first round picks from the draft class of 2005 this summer is their first chance to start talking about a big-time contract extension. These players will still be on their rookie contract salary for the 2008-09 season (they will be considered Base Year Contract players for the duration), but come 09-10 the bigger dollars could come rolling in.
For a team they might want to get a deal done if they are confident in the future growth of the player but want to see if they can lock him in for cheap. For a player, they might want to lock in the financial security.
On both sides, there is always the give and take of how much the player could improve and what that improvement could mean to his value on the open market.
For these players they fall into four different groups. The first group of players the extension now for the big money. The second group is a team might think about it, if the player's agent pitches a good price. The third group of players have questions, so it's better for both sides to wait. The final group are the ones who simply haven't proven anything yet.
Pay Them Now, No Looking Back
Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets – This one should be obvious. The Hornets should offer Paul max money now and lock him up. If they wait (same goes with the next guy), you just never know how a player could react to restricted free agency. Max money. Do it. Now.
Deron Williams, Utah Jazz – Williams isn't quite as good as Paul, but since Paul is the best point guard in the NBA that's hardly his fault. Guess what? Williams is second, and deserves the big dollars. Ditto the timeline.
Consider a Deal Now
Raymond Felton, Charlotte Bobcats – It's unfortunate, but Felton will always be measured against Paul and Williams even though that's hardly fair. Felton is a very solid point guard and if the Cats are pleased and convinced he is their PG of the now and future, they should have the conversation. If they have any doubts, they should wait. An extension in the $35 million range would be reasonable at this point.
Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers – An argument could be made Granger deserves to be in the Pay Them Now category for everything he does for the Pacers. He scores, rebounds, defends – if he was on most other teams people would wonder why he isn't an All-Star yet. The problem is the future of the franchise is unclear so the Pacers probably won't want to deal with this before they have to. If they can do it for under $60 million, though, they should. The price will only go up.
Andrew Bynum, Los Angeles Lakers – If Bynum hadn't missed half the season with a knee injury extending him for big money now would be a no-brainer. In reality that could very well still happen, but coming off that injury will the Lakers be so ready to give him max money? Bynum could be better off playing a full season like he played the first half of 2007-08 if the Lakers are unsure. On the other hand, if the Lakers could convince him to sign for $60 million instead of max money, that's smart business.
Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee Bucks – Bogut, the #1 pick in the 2005 draft, isn't even the best center from that group (Bynum), but he has showed improvement every season and seems to be very close to being a dominant rebounder, defender and reliable scorer. Players like that in the middle deserve extensions. The Bucks and Bogut have already agreed to talk. If the Bucks want him for a long time it will get done; if they aren't sure about his asking price (likely upwards of $70 million) it may not.
Wait Until Next Year
Marvin Williams, Atlanta Hawks – Williams came a long way this past season after facing injuries and inconsistency his first two, but the Hawks are likely going to want to see him do it again. Also, he still really is a tweener; Atlanta wants to see him become an everyday power forward.
Linas Kleiza, Denver Nuggets – Kleiza offensively is one of the best players in this draft, but despite all of that he has been mentioned in trade rumors for two seasons now. It's not because he doesn't fit the Nuggets, but instead a product of the Nugs being built to win now around veterans Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby. If there are as many changes in Denver as rumors say there will be, things could change and Kleiza may get a deal, but it's not a top priority.
Jason Maxiell, Detroit Pistons – Maxiell waiting has nothing to do with his talent or his contributions, but instead has to do with the fact Joe Dumars is one of the smartest execs in the league. Why pay him now? Next season Maxiell will play the same role behind Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess, but next summer he will ready to step into the starting lineup. It's likely the Pistons won't lose much ground by waiting.
Charlie Villanueva, Milwaukee Bucks – Villanueva is an excellent player. He can score and rebound, putting up big numbers, but he's not part of the Bucks future – that honor goes to Yi Jianlian. Unless the Bucks trade him this summer, look for him to be part of a sign-and-trade next summer.
Rashad McCants, Minnesota Timberwolves – The latter half of this past season was the first time McCants has been healthy and consistent. He needs to do it for a full season and prove he can be a starting shooting guard in the NBA before the Wolves commit to longer term.
David Lee, New York Knicks – There are probaly 29 other teams that would love to get grab Lee, but the Knicks don't seem that interested in keeping him. They have been linked to Danilo Gallinari in the draft if Jerryd Bayless and Derrick Rose are gone because of the link to Mike D'Antoni. They should pick someone else, since Lee would fit an uptempo D'Antoni offense perfectly.
Nate Robinson, New York Knicks – We know Robinson can score, but raise your hand if you are convinced he can run an NBA team as a point guard. Anyone? No? Robinson has starting offensive talent, but is destined to be a third guard forever simply because his size and his game don't work together, and the fact that makes him a defensive liability. If he can't run a team and can't defend a shooting guard, that's what happens. As soon as he embraces his future as a third guard, his desires and the market value will find a happy medium.
Martell Webster, Portland Trail Blazers – Webster made strides in 07-08, but consistency is still a need. He can score and rebound very, very well from the wing, but too often he sits at the three-point line calling for the ball. When he attacks the rim he is infinitely more valuable, but until he does that every game and every trip down the floor he's not worth a long-term commitment.
Francisco Garcia, Sacramento Kings – Garcia grabbed his role by the horns this past season after a couple in relative obscurity. His problem is he plays the same position as the best player in the league not to be an All-Star yet, Kevin Martin. Garcia is a good backup for Martin, but giving him a long-term deal probably isn't realistic.
Joey Graham, Toronto Raptors – Put Graham in the same category as Garcia. He improved a lot this past year, became a more reliable player, but will he be a starter in this league? If he's not going to be a starter, there isn't any point in talking extension until necessary.
As of Now, Don't Spend Any Time Thinking About It
Sean May, Charlotte Bobcats – May is a fantastic player – when he's healthy. If he can't stay healthy for at least one season the Cats should really start looking elsewhere.
Luther Head, Houston Rockets – Head is a decent player who can run the team at the point in a pinch, but is he part of the future? He hasn't separated himself yet.
Ike Diogu, Indiana Pacers – Diogu was supposed to become a rebounding fiend, and in spots he has. What the Pacers need to do is give him extended minutes to see what he can really do – if they don't (you know, if they don't trade Jermaine O'Neal) they will never see what they have.
Hakim Warrick, Memphis Grizzlies – Warrick can score in the open floor, but his inconsistent jumper and inability to provide post offense hurt him. The Grizz like to run, but they need something from the middle at some point.
Channing Frye, Portland Trail Blazers – Frye is a decent rebounder with a nice, soft jumper, but he's only the fourth big man on the Blazers behind Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge and Joel Przybilla. He could be a nice fit for them long-term, but he hasn't earned an early extension.
Jarrett Jack, Portland Trail Blazers – It seems pretty clear the Blazers don't see Jack as their future point guard, and they aren't even sure if he is a point guard or just a shooting guard who can handle the ball. He has a great attitude and his teammates love him, plus he is a bulldog on defense. Where does that put him? If he's not traded, the Blazers still aren't sure yet.
Johan Petro, Seattle SuperSonics – Petro is interesting as a post defender off the bench, someone who can block some shots. Thing is, that kind of player gets paid less than Petro makes now. Seems like a pretty easy case for no extension discussions.
Didn't Make it This Far
Fran Vasquez decided he wasn't interested in Orlando…Yaroslav Korolev was waived by the Los Angeles Clippers…Antoine Wright didn't get his option picked up for the 2008-09 season…Gerald Green was waived by the Houston Rockets after being traded twice…Julius Hodge has also been waived…Ian Mahinmi is in his first year with the Spurs, but his deal is under the 2005 rules - he will be in this position in the summer of 2010…Wayne Simien was waived after being traded from Miami.