HOOPSWORLD
Threats - The West

By: Eric Pincus   Last Updated: 9/10/08 9:00 AM ET | 10712 times read
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What a difference a year makes.  At this point last season, the Los Angeles Lakers were contemplating trade offers for star guard Kobe Bryant.  Now they're arguably the favorite to come out of the Western Conference . . .

Of course 14 other teams will challenge them over the course of the 82-game regular season schedule - and the three rounds of the conference playoffs.  Of the 14, five stand out as serious threats:

1) Portland Trail Blazers - The Blazers weren't a playoff team last year but they seriously have their eyes on the eighth playoff spot (at a minimum).  Portland could be this year's New Orleans Hornets - the young team that finally puts it together.  If they can finally stay healthy, the Blazers have a scary roster and a knack for giving the Lakers a very hard time - especially in Portland.

Playing against guards Derek Fisher, Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar and Bryant - the Blazers have Brandon Roy, Steve Blake (always a problem for the Lakers) and rookies Jerry Bayless and Rudy Fernandez.  To match up with LA's front court of Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom, Portland offers Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge and either Martell Webster or Travis Outlaw.  Channing Frye's ability to face up and shoot and Joel Przybilla's physicality give Coach Nate McMillan a pair of very different weapons off the bench.

If the Lakers do indeed win the West and draw the Blazers in the first round, that's going to be an epic series that could derail LA's title hopes early in the game . . .

2) New Orleans Hornets - In theory the combination of Bynum and Gasol should improve the Lakers ability to protect the basket but it won't be easy against a team like the Hornets. Containing dribble penetration last season was a major weakness and guard Chris Paul is an absolute handful.

The outside shooting of forwards David West, Peja Stojakovic and recent acquisition James Posey will be a factor after Paul beats his man off the dribble.  It's very difficult to help defensively against the Hornets.

They also have one of the league's better defensive big men in Tyson Chandler who both blocks shots and rebounds well.  Additionally, West doesn't only shoot jump shots.  He may not necessarily have a true low post game but he is athletic, strong and aggressive.

The Hornets don't have tremendous depth and last year was the first season the core was essentially healthy.  Like Portland, they too are well coached by former Laker Byron Scott who was Bryant's mentor when Kobe was a rookie.

The Lakers have the edge on depth but the Hornets are a scary team with serious championship aspirations.

3) Houston Rockets - The Rockets have had one fatal flaw that has kept them from reaching their potential - they just haven't been able to keep both center Yao Ming and guard/forward Tracy McGrady healthy for any serious extended period.

If Houston can finally get through the year with their big guns, the acquisition of forward Ron Artest could catapult the Rockets to the NBA Finals.

The team excelled on the defensive end before landing Artest.  Along with Shane Battier, Houston has two top perimeter defenders to match up with Bryant.  Yao towers over Bynum.

Forwards Luis Scola and Artest (if he starts at the four) may have some disadvantages against the taller Gasol but Scola presents a capable scoring option and Artest is certainly a tough, physical opponent for Pau.

In the backcourt, the Rockets have Rafer Alston, Aaron Brooks and Luther Head (among others) to complement McGrady.

If they can just stay healthy, Houston will have a great shot to finally get Yao and McGrady well past the first round of the playoffs.  Once there, the sky is the limit.

4) Phoenix Suns - How seamlessly will the Suns transition from Mike D'Antoni to Terry Porter?  Obviously playing under a new coach makes Phoenix somewhat of a question mark but the roster is undeniably scary.  If center Shaquille O'Neal remains healthy, he and his front court mate Amare Stoudemire comprise perhaps the most intimidating big man duo on the league.

Steve Nash is still an elite point guard.  The Lakers struggle against penetration but Nash's outside shot makes him an even trickier cover.

The Suns have a number a solid role players like forwards Grant Hill, Boris Diaw and Matt Barnes.  Guards Raja Bell and Leandro Barbosa give Porter two very different options at shooting guard.  Bell remains a high level defender while Barbosa is about as quick as anyone in the league - and can score in bunches.

The Lakers and Suns have history.  Obviously there's the Shaq/Kobe connection but before he arrived, the Suns knocked the Lakers out of the first round of the playoffs two years in a row.

This looks like it has potential for a fierce second-round series . . .

5) San Antonio Spurs - At first glance the Spurs don't appear to be a tremendous threat.  It took the Lakers six games to get past the Utah Jazz but only five to topple San Antonio back in May.

As strong as the Jazz were, the return of Bynum should make a significant difference, especially against the Jazz.  As it was, big men Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur already had their share of difficulties against the Laker front court of Gasol and Lamar Odom.  Utah will be tough but San Antonio may be more of an issue.

Yes, guard/forward Manu Ginobili will miss the start of the season after ankle surgery which could impact San Antonio's seeding - but the Spurs do have the history of winning titles every other season.

Their offseason acquisition of guard Roger Mason will help provide the offense that was lacking last postseason - but ultimately the Spurs rely on Ginobili.  Coach Gregg Popovich will rest him all season if necessary to get him back to health for the postseason.  If Manu gets his game back, San Antonio could prove to be unstoppable.

San Antonio always seems to fly under the radar.  Forward/center Tim Duncan remains one of the best big men in the game.  Guard Tony Parker is still one of the best scorers in the league at his position.  Both Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto are big, strong bodies that complement Duncan well.

But it will all come down to a healthy Ginobili  . . .

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About the Author: ERIC PINCUS
Eric Pincus is a member of the Professional Basketball Writers Association and has covered the NBA for HOOPSWORLD for five years, powering HOOPSWORLD.COM.

Comments (32 posted) Post your comment
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posted By Occy, 10 September 2008 12:31:27 PM
Don't sleep on the Jazz. I think they're a contender. They've almost made it the last couple seasons. They're getting close.
posted By Eric Pincus, 10 September 2008 1:29:59 PM
if it was a list of top 6 threats - the Jazz would have been 6th - but I had to go with the Spurs. Utah is a good call.
posted By GermanHoopster, 10 September 2008 2:39:21 PM
I understand you can only pick 5 teams, but how are the Suns and Spurs a bigger threat than the Jazz? Both of those squads are aging fast without much upside within their roster. Nope, improved oncourt chemistry between O'Neal and Nash after a full training camp together just won't cut it. And don't count on an injury free season for TD and crew either (wonder what Ginobili would be like without all those international miles wearing down his body). Utah has a budding MVP-candidate in D-Will and a 21-10-guy in Booz, who will play with a ship on his shoulder after his disapointing play in last years playoffs,plus tons of promising young talent (read: Brewer, Millsap,C.J,Almond etc.) to develop or trade for another difference-maker. Although they`re real young they already good two playoff-runs under their belts. Why is everybody hatin' on the Jazz these days anyway? USA Today had them ranked 12th in the league behind the Blazers, Cavs, Magic and Mavs among others! Go figure....
posted By Jarmendt, 10 September 2008 2:39:32 PM
The Jazz are a nice team, but they are still a player away. They have 2 legitimate threats in Williams and Boozer, but their role players haven't shown the ability to perform in the playoffs when defenses dare them to shoot... The team that's getting no love here (as much as I hate to say it as a die-hard Suns fan) is Dallas. They are full of veteran talent, and over the past 4 seasons those are the types of teams that have won the Finals. I'm not saying they're the favorite, but they still deserve to be in the conversation (especially if you want to throw a team like Portland in there).
posted By John, 10 September 2008 2:53:12 PM
The reason the Jazz get less love than their fans think they should get is simple: they have never beaten a team that was considered a serious threat for the title in a seven game series. They've beaten Houston twice in the first round, and they snuck into the 07 conference finals because they drew an 8 seed (albeit a good one) in the second round. Until they down a contender in a seven game series (as Phoenix did in 05, as Dallas did in 06, as the Spurs have done time and time again, and as the Lakers and New Orleans did in 08) they can't be considered to be a serious threat to win the conference.
posted By Jarmendt/John, 10 September 2008 2:54:41 PM
By the way John and Jarmendt are one in the same person in case I cite previous posts to avoid confusion.
posted By Joshhopp, 10 September 2008 5:03:31 PM
When oh when will everyone stop fellating the totally unproven Blazers? They were .500 last season for goodness' sakes and since when does a rookie whose best college numbers were 15 and 7 change a team into a playoff contender?
posted By JJ, 10 September 2008 5:42:30 PM
The Lakrs have no Peers
posted By Kevin, 10 September 2008 5:43:38 PM
The Sun has set in Phoenix
posted By JW, 10 September 2008 6:11:15 PM
All of the Jazz fans brag about is beating Houston in the first round (a depleted team at that), but that's about all they can do. Then they totally get owned by the Spurs or the Lakers.
posted By Eric Pincus, 10 September 2008 6:25:13 PM
I chose the Suns and Spurs as bigger threats specifically to the Lakers - that doesn't mean I think either is better or worse than the Jazz. Just going on my perception of the match ups. The Blazers are unproven - but as I said - this is based on them facing the Lakers. Portland might not be as tough a match up for other squads - but the Lakers have always had a hard time vs the Blazers.
posted By David, 10 September 2008 6:38:47 PM
First, the only two teams I'd place ahead or near Utah are NO and SA. Even SA is getting older and with Manu's injury, may not be as well-seeded come Playoff time. I don't see Artest helping a team that has never done anything with Yao/T-Mac (and what has Artest ever won)? Portland is easily one of the most talented teams, but they're entirely unproven. Utah is underrated by experts and fans alike. Yes, their role players need to step up, but I think Okur, Kirilenko, Korver, Brewer, and Millsap are really starting to get together as a team. They're young, but like John Hollinger at ESPN, I think they're the biggest threat to LA. Just guessing but Jazz fans don't brag about beating Houston. Beating them is, however, a pretty good achievement. Easily the toughest first-rounds in the Playoffs the last two years were Houston/Utah series. Oh, Houston was as healthy as a fiddle in 2007, had home-court advantage, and were playing a team in the Playoffs for the first time in three years.
posted By Fanatic, 10 September 2008 6:59:30 PM
What are the chances of Jazz and Raptors(Threats-The East) meeting in the Finals? 200:1, just wondering... Not to disrespect.
posted By GermanHoopster, 11 September 2008 3:53:46 AM
Utah vs. Toronto in the Finals? You know Stern would commit suicide right after torturing every ref responsible for that matchup
posted By Dracul, 11 September 2008 4:20:17 AM
Blazers - they always give the Lakers trouble, but pretty much can't do much against anyone else. I'll wait and see if this Greg Oden guy can actually match up to the hype before I start having an orgasm over how good the Blazers are like everyone on the ESPN boards. Spurs - If Ginobili is innefective, Spurs aren't going anywhere. TD and TP only have 3 gears when it comes to offense, and if Ginobili is stuck in 2nd, not enough offense. Suns - Mike D'Antoni has cost the Suns about 2+ championships with his complete lack of regard for defense OR accountability. They have a team who can only play when Nash is in, and they can only play offense even in that case. Jazz- Once again, Sloan and his style has suffocated the Jazz. Plus what's up with them being unable to win away from home? Rockets - They had a lot of defense last year, so now they add more defense. Yao and T-mac just dont seem to have synergy together on offense. This team hustles but doesn't score effectively. Hornets- CP3 is fun to watch, but lacks height on D. Peja can't do much if he isnt allowed to shoot 3s. Chandler has a tendency to get in foul trouble and there's no reliable backup. David West is consistent. They lost Pargo and added Posey. I can see them going to the WCF but they wont beat the Lakers.
posted By Jarmendt, 11 September 2008 6:24:29 AM
Dracul, as long as we're pointing fingers at people and counting how many possible championships they've cost their team, let's not forget that Kobe is the one who caused possibly one of the best teams ever to blow up when he alienated Shaq and threatened to leave if he wasn't traded. There's no telling how many rings that cost the Lakers.
posted By Larry, 11 September 2008 10:28:52 AM
Great article Eric, and an astute view of the match up between Portland and the Lakers. Just to set the record straight, most of us in Portland feel we'll make the playoffs this year, and hopefully gain some experience for the 2009 season. Next summer we will go into free agency with over 15 million in cap space, re sign Webster, and go after a great F.A. Hopefully then we will be a top 4 team, after 2009, with Paul Allen's deep pockets, we will keep this young team together and be a championship contender for the next decade. We had the 3rd youngest roster in NBA history last season, and we gave the Laker's fits... trust me, we'll be tough to handle for more than just the Laker's this season. Wait till you see what Oden looks like now... The future is bright in Portland.
posted By matt, 11 September 2008 11:33:54 AM
portland over utah is an horrid call. also, the suns shouldn't be ranked as high without dantoni controlling their crazy-fast game and marion cleaning up their defensive issues. giricek also masked some scoring issues they had after the marion trade late in the season and they don't have him anymore. this is correct: 1) la lakers 2) san antonio (with manu being manu) 3) utah 4) new orleans 5) houston ----- 6) clippers 7) dallas 8) portland we'll see how ron ron does in houston now, though. that team consistently under achieves because of their offense. they are crazy good. defensively, though.
posted By ECJ, 11 September 2008 11:34:37 AM
Ok, great article and pretty accurate up until the Houston Rockets "in the finals" comment. Maybe the 2nd round with some added defensive efforts from Artest, but the finals??? No way!!! T-Mac would buckle under that pressure and we know what Yao can do.
posted By Che Scelsa, 11 September 2008 12:09:25 PM
First I would like to say im hardcore Laker Fan. Of all the teams the Lakers played in the West Last season the Jazz were the most physical with them and caused the most problems. People get caught up in roster and not enough on player chemistry and experience. Portland is guilty til proven innocent. Until They prove that their a threat their not a threat. People need to stop give Shaq all this glory. HE'S done, he's done he's been done for 2 seasons now. Even when they won that championship D-wade carried that team, and Shaq was riding the wave. Phoenix is not a bigger threat than Utah. Utah has proven that in a 7 game series that they can run with Lakers. 1 or 2 more shots made in the clutch and they could have beat them. All that being said if the Laker frontcourt meshes the way I think it's going to mesh I think all these teams get swept. Go Lakers
posted By David, 11 September 2008 12:21:40 PM
Remember last season just how close all the teams were in the West. Spurs were only up on the Suns by 1 game, and had the same record as the Hornets (who had the tiebreaker). Spurs beat the Suns 4-1, but they weren't really THAT much better than them.. They lost to the Lakers 4-1, who really weren't THAT much better than them either. Make predictions now if you want, but it all will come down to which team is healthier going in to the play offs.
posted By Eric Pincus, 11 September 2008 12:23:48 PM
As I said - I'm not putting down the Jazz and I think they'll finish higher in the standings than the Blazers - but I'm looking at the individual match ups - plus the addition of Bynum for LA. I think the Lakers could have a harder time with the physicality of the Blazers mixed with their skill (scoring at many, many positions) vs Utah where you know where the shots are coming from and they're a lot tougher when there's no Bynum on the floor.
posted By Jarmendt, 11 September 2008 4:20:29 PM
Che Scelsa, you talk about how Utah is the only team in the west that can compete with the Lakers as if the Suns didn't beat them 2 years in a row in the first round.
posted By Matty.G, 11 September 2008 6:17:15 PM
Hello Jazz?? How can they not be in top 3 let alone top 5! 2 good playoff runs with one of the youngest teams in the NBA. You can say "who have they beaten" but they still did the job. Who have Blazers beaten? How did Suns go last year? Who have rockets beaten? They could do with another big but the Jazz is young and still improving(see, d-will, Brewer, Miles, Millsap) they will be a force!
posted By Don, 13 September 2008 1:16:17 AM
Matty: "Who have Blazers beaten?" Well - let's see. For one they beat the Jazz last season 2 out of the four meetings they played. And guess what? Three of the top five Blazers on the team this year weren't even playing for Portland last year. Do you understand now?
posted By Matty.G, 13 September 2008 2:14:40 AM
Gee thanks Don, however, i thought we were talking about the playoffs here? not 50% of regular season meetings. yes blazers have the making of an awesome young team but as you said, they have 3 new players and have yet to even make the playoffs. make thanks for clearing things up.
posted By scootr6464, 15 September 2008 6:13:03 AM
Well, if y'all would READ the article, Eric is pointing out who is the biggest threat to knock off the Lakers... not who will be where in the standings!!! As far as y'all trash talking the Blazers... ummm... lets see... how many times did LA win against the Blazers at the Rose Garden last year??? yeah... you can stop counting at ZERO. And, if y'all want to talk about what a team is capable of, lets look... Portland, statistically(on paper) has one of the most talented, deepest rosters in the west, if not the entire league. Just about everyone on the team is a top 15 draft pick... and talented as all getout. Lets see whos been proven already... BRoy... rookie of the year, All-Star; Travis Outlaw-top contender for 6th man of year; Pryz... great shot-blocker- presencein the paint... L. Aldridge, C. Frye, S. Blake, Oden, Bayless, Fernandez, Garcia ... on and on... so, talk all you want... We're not looking to take it all this year, it's next year we want!!
posted By Don, 17 September 2008 5:34:38 PM
Hey no problem Matty. We are talking about the playoffs, and we are ALSO talking about potential and projections. If you want to discuss talent and potential, the Blazers have the Jazz beat. If you are talking about experience and recent history, the Jazz have the Blazers beat. My response was to your trash talking about the Blazers - all I'm saying is that the Blazers are going to be the better team...it's just a matter of when. And by the way, I like the Jazz and have followed them since the days of Malone and Stockton. Portland just has way too much going though.
posted By The Bully, 18 September 2008 2:40:48 PM
Great article Eric. I would drop Phoenix off of that list and move Houston to no. 1. PHX is done being a contender and Artest changes that team from pretender to contender.
posted By Steve, 26 September 2008 9:15:14 PM
the lakers do have alot of trouble against the Blazers. Similar to how my celtics struggle against the wizards (wizards gave us more trouble than anyone last year and that was by a VERY VERY VERY wide margin. Not even close.) Its funny how teams match up, isnt it?
posted By Che Scelsa, 26 September 2008 10:10:46 PM
It's easy to look at a teams record to decide how good they are, but the playoffs really show how good a team is. The season L.A. ran the table against Western Conferance in 01 the Spurs had the best record in the conferance. Can you really honestly say that the Lakers weren't that much better than every other team in the West. Also, That was then this is now. Like I said the Suns are done. They don't stand a chance against the Lakers. Lakers and Celtics Part 2
posted By Consiglieri, 1 October 2008 12:56:44 PM
"But it will all come down to a healthy Ginobili..." ========> That's it. Period. If Manu didn't had his ankle injured last year, SPURS would had one more ring, or at least the West title for sure.



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