The Nets plan to move into their new home – the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York – in approximately 14 months. A great deal of construction and a couple of questions remain: How many fans will welcome them when they arrive, and how many new fans will they be able to convert once they begin balling in Brooklyn?

For the entirety of their existence, the Nets have been relegated to “neglected little brother” status in the New York/ Tri-State Area. New York is a basketball town, and there is lots of love to dispensed, but the Knicks have always been the primary recipients of that outpouring of affection. The Knickerbockers had a huge head start on the Nets, converting millions of youngsters and older folks alike into die-hard Knicks fans back in the late 60′s and early 70′s, with a team that is still nostalgically revered to this day. The combination of Walt “Clyde” Frazier, David DeBusschere, Bill Bradley, Willis Reed, among many others, won two championships and more importantly, won the heart of a city.

The bond that those Knicks team formed with New York is legendary. It left an indelible imprint on those who saw them play. We are now 40 years removed from that epic run, yet the reverence for those squads only seems to grow larger. That was the foundation for the Tri-Sate Area’s love fest with the Knicks. In the years since, there have been some peaks (Ewing/ Starks/ Oakley’s teams in the 90′s) and many, many valleys. However, even during the darkest days of despair – when Isiah Thomas roamed the sidelines and corridors of MSG – fans still showed up in force, and the Knicks played to sold-out or near capacity crowds night after night.

Even when the Knicks were down in the dumps, and the Nets were flourishing, they failed to ever make serious inroads into the New York fan base. During the early parts of the prior decade, when Jason Kidd led New Jersey to back-to-back Finals appearances, New York and New Jersey denizens seemed to hardly notice. The Nets still had a tough time selling out big playoff games, despite putting an incredibly exciting and entertaining and successful product on the floor.  There was certainly no mass fan exodus from Madison Square Garden out to East Rutherford New Jersey. In fact, it never really even evolved into a decent rivalry, as Knicks fans would often times outnumber and vocally overpower Nets fans in Jersey whenever the Nets hosted New York.

{AUTHOR_BOX}There have been a number of reasons for New Jersey’s inability to attract followers. As previously mentioned, the Knicks have had a stranglehold on the affection and allegiance of basketball fans in this area for the better part of a half century. Fandom is often passed down from one generation to the next, and there were an enormous number of babies wearing Knicks-themed onesies. A strong history with established roots goes a long way in cultivating future fans.

Another reason for the Nets inability to sustain a comparable fan base was their inaccessible location. When the moved to Jersey in the 1970′s, they played their home games on the campus of Rutgers University in Piscataway for the first few seasons. Eventually, the Meadowlands Sports Complex was constructed in East Rutherford. The team moved into the Brendan Byrne Arena in 1981. (The arena would later be known as the Continental Airlines Arena starting in 1996, and renamed the Izod Center in 2007.) Whatever it happened to be called at the time, it was pain to get to, with the area often derogatorily referred to as “The Swamp.” Let’s just say it wasn’t quite as centrally located as Madison Square Garden. MSG is located directly above Penn. Station, one of the busiest transportation hubs in the world, making it an easy commute for anyone with the inclination to attend a Knicks game.

However, as we know, the Nets will play one more season in Jersey (they spent last season in Newark, and will play the 2011-2012 campaign there as well), then the franchise will move across the river into the heart of Brooklyn, one of New York’s most populated and energized boroughs. Nets ownership, including the dynamic Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, are hoping this is a major selling point to a new generation of basketball fans in NYC.

So, will the Nets finally be able to carve out a slice of NYC’s rabid basketball loving populace for themselves?

There are several key factors in play here.

First and foremost, we will have to see if the Nets can hold onto Deron Williams. If Williams walks away from the Nets next summer, a couple of months before the Nets move to Brooklyn, it would represent an devastating step backwards.  Williams, one of the league’s preeminent players and arguably the best point guard on the planet, is now the new face of the franchise.  He is vital to Nets resurgence. D-Will, under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, has the opportunity to exercise a player option to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1st, 2012.

No matter how good the marketing campaign, it will be extremely difficult to convert fans over to a losing franchise. And, without Deron Williams and nothing to show for him, the Nets will be just that.

However, when it comes to retaining Williams, Prokhorov and the Nets may have something significant working in their favor – i.e. a newly negotiated Collective Bargain Agreement. When the NBA emerges on the other side of the (inevitable) lockout, we will enter a brave new world, one of fiscal austerity, reduced salaries, and (potentially) less movement among the leagues elite superstars. One of the purported topics on the table during negotiations between the owners and the players union has been implementing a “franchise tag.” This is a system (used in the NFL for over 15 years) by which each team can ‘tag’ one pending free agent on their roster and said player is then bound to his current team. Whether due to a mechanism such as a Franchise Tag, or the limitations of a “hard cap,” many owners are hoping it will be easier for teams to hold onto their superstars.

If the Nets can lockup Williams long-term, then they will need to flesh out the roster around him. They have some decent building blocks in place – specifically Brook Lopez in the middle. The ideal dream scenario would somehow convince Dwight Howard to join D-Will in NYC and form their own ‘Super Team.”

Another major factor in the “conversion conversation” is what happens with the Knicks.

Owner James Dolan’s decision last month to not bring back Donnie Walsh infuriated many loyal Knicks fans. Unfortunately, this wasn’t the first, and likely won’t be the last move by Dolan that leaves Knicks supporters scratching their head and curing their luck.  When Walsh arrived in 2008, the organization was in shambles. The roster was teeming with bloated contracts nobody wanted.  Donnie did the unthinkable and the presumed impossible, gutting the roster and somehow getting below the salary cap, which was the first step.  Then he found a way to bring in two legit superstars to fortify the franchise. Just as importantly, Walsh not only created cap space, and not only brought in talented players, and not only brought back hope and optimism to New York City; he also brought class and respectability back to the organization, something this franchise desperately needed.

Dolan’s inability to leave good enough alone set the Knicks back in a major way. After a few steps forward, they took a significant step back. Now, the Knicks future is once again murky. Yes, they have Amar’e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony on board, but the roster is far from complete and major work still needs to be done. While construction crews are putting together the Barclays center, a new GM will be busy finishing construction of the Knicks roster.

Will Dolan make the right decision and hire a qualified and competent GM? Will he allow that GM to do his job, or will he needlessly meddle? One thing is certain, if Dolan brings back his old buddy Isiah Thomas, all bets are off. It would be an enormous boon for the Nets, as Knicks season-ticket subscriptions would be cancelled at an incredible rate. However, all indications from inside the Garden affirm that Dolan won’t make that disastrous blunder. Still, with Dolan calling the shots, Nets management can still hold out hope that he makes a major mistake.

Moving forward, the stakes will be higher. In years past, there wasn’t a true alternative for Knicks fans. If NYC hoops fans wanted a basketball fix, the Knicks were the only game in town. Beginning in 2012, that will no longer be the case.

The new home of the Nets, the Barclays Center, will be easily accessible, via train, subway, bus, and car, from all parts of the city.  Per the venue’s website, “no matter where you are in metro New York, you’re just minutes away from the excitement of the Barclays Center.”

For basketball fans fed up with the Knicks and/or those coming-of-age in and around NYC, all roads no longer lead to MSG…

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