Avoiding The Dreaded 0-2 Hole
Losing the first game of a seven-game series puts the loser behind a fairly significant statistical eight ball. More than 70% of the time, the team that wins the first game of a seven-game series goes on to win the series. The home team also wins 70% of all seven-game series, so when the visiting Dallas Mavericks lost Game 1 of the 2011 NBA Finals to the Miami HEAT on Tuesday night they put history squarely on the side of Miami.
If the Mavericks lose Game 2 tonight, the odds of coming back become even more bleak. In the 18 times a team dug themselves an 0-2 hole only three have come back to win the series. In other words, barring a history-bucking comeback, tonight’s game a must-win for the visiting Mavericks.
“It’s must-win, but I feel like every game is a must-win, honestly,” Mavericks center Tyson Chandler tells HOOPSWORLD. “You don’t want to give any games up, so you’ve got to walk into every game feeling like it’s a Game 7 because you really don’t want to lost the first one and then you really don’t want to lose the second one. The 0-2 hole is huge and we definitely have to avoid that. We’ve got to come out tonight and give them everything we’ve got.”
“That’s a big hole to overcome,” says Dirk Nowitzki “Nothing is impossible, but we’d love to go home with this series 1-1. We got to go for it. We’ve got to compete a little harder. Rebound better—I think that’s a big key. You can’t give an explosive offensive team you know, so many shots at the basket. You’ve got to let them get only one shot, rebound the ball and then hopefully speed the game up some, get the ball in [Jason] J-Kidd’s hands and play more of our game.”
“We’ve got to go out here and leave it on the floor,” adds forward Shawn Marion. “If we do that, good things will happen. It’s just that simple.”
“You definitely don’t want to go down 0-2,” says guard JJ Barea. “When you know you have three games coming at home it would be a huge lift to get one of these over here. So we consider this a must-win, yes.”
The 0-2 hole is not absolutely the end of the world, after all, you have to win four to win the series, but if the Mavs were to fall behind 0-2 and still win the championship it would put them in very rare company, indeed.
{AUTHOR_BOX}The 1971 Los Angeles Lakers were behind 0-2 to the San Francisco Warriors in the Western Conference Semifinals, but came back to win the series, and that was after they lost the first two games at home. The 1994 Houston Rockets fell behind 0-2 to the Phoenix Suns, yet came back to win the series in a performance that has forever earned Houston the nickname “Clutch City.” The Rockets were on the wrong side of that scenario more than two decades later when they took a 2-0 series lead on the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, only to lose the series.
So coming back from an 0-2 hole is not impossible, and the Mavericks have even done it before, but it’s not a situation they look forward to creating.
“I won’t say it’s must-win; that’s why you have home court advantage,” says DeShawn Stevenson. “They’ve got to take care of home and we’ve got to take care of home. We do have to win one on their home court, but I wouldn’t say this is a must-win. We definitely have to take care of our home court when we get back.”
Whether or not history is against them, don’t expect the Mavericks to throw in the towel if they did cough up Game 2 tonight.
“I’ve been in a lot of different holes and come back and won,” says Marion. “It’s just that simple. It ain’t over until it’s over with, and anyone who plays basketball knows what.”
The Mavericks have a solid blueprint for victory as they head into Game 2. Their zone was very effective against the HEAT and they gave as good as they got on the defensive end. They need to take better care of the defensive glass, as they gave Miami far too many second-chance opportunities in Game 2 and really lost the game based on that stat alone. They also need Peja Stojakovic, Jason Terry and JJ Barea to knock down the open shots they’ve been hitting throughout the playoffs. If they do those things they will put themselves in position to win . . .and avoid the dreaded 0-2 hole.
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