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Award Watch: 2010-2011 NBA MVP
Posted By Tommy Beer On April 1, 2011 @ 5:10 pm In All,NBA | No Comments
As always, when deciding on these MVP rankings, we factor in individual player production (via both standard stats and advanced metrics) as well as team performance/success…
Front Runners:
Derrick Rose – Chicago Bulls (25.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 7.9 apg):
The annual MVP debate seems to have shifted front-and-center within the NBA blogosphere recently. With most playoff positioning nearly settled, and the postseason still a fortnight away, this tends to be the time of year when MVP arguments begin in earnest. With Rose appearing to have emerged as the public’s prohibitive favorite over the last few weeks, the backlash against Rose’s candidacy has been striking. Many widely respected analysts have made strong cases against Derrick, most claiming Dwight Howard should take home the hardware. However, the problem this season, as it is every year, is there is no standard definition of "most valuable." Thus, people end up arguing different points to support completely different theories. The term "most valuable" inevitably means different things to different folks. In this space, I have been an ardent supporter of Rose’s MVP credentials for some time now. As has been pointed out early and often, Derrick put the Bulls on his back when they were without their respective center and power forward, and the Bulls have ascended to the top of the Eastern Conference. Rose’s stats are undeniably impressive. The individual criteria usually used in MVP debates are usually questions such as: "Is he the best player on the best team?" "What would happen to his team without him?" "Is he the best individual player in the league?" – and plenty of other hypothetical queries. Is Rose the undisputed answer to all these questions? No? But which player is? Which player has no holes in his MVP resume?
When you author an article focusing on just one player’s credentials (or lack thereof), it becomes easier to create a air of unworthiness. However, each contender for the crown has flaws in their argument. For instance, the Magic finished 36 games above .500 last season, but already have five more losses than they did all of last year. And, as we all know, Howard’s free-throw shooting can be a major hindrance in crunch time. Thus, Orlando is unable to lean as heavily on Dwight as they’d like in the fourth quarter. This a crucial reason why Shaq only won one MVP; not just because both guys are tall and "nobody like to root for Goliath." In addition, Howard leads the league in technicals and has already been suspended one game. Should steady leadership be taken into account? Regarding LeBron James: He isn’t even the leading fourth-quarter scorer on his own team. Moreover, the Bulls have a better record than Miami, yet Rose doesn’t have another all-star on his squad, let alone another top-5 NBA PLAYER… Again, if we put any particular player in the crosshairs, and dissect their game/resume, we will be able to find negatives. All that said, Rose has put together an incredible season, and his body of work speaks for itself. In my opinion, it earns him the 2010-2011 NBA MVP.
2. Dwight Howard – Orlando Magic (23.1 ppg, 14.2 rpg, 2.4 bpg):
Dwight Howard will win an NBA MVP award. It may not be this season, but the dude is so good and so young, that it’s only a matter of time. Looking for proof? Consider this slew of statistics (courtesy of the Magic PR staff):
* As of Mar. 31, Dwight Howard, the NBA Eastern Conference Player of the Week an NBA-high six times this season, ranks in the NBA’s top 10 in scoring, rebounding, blocked shots and FG percentage. If he finishes the season the same way, he would become just the 10th player in NBA history to finish in the top 10 in each of those categories, joining the likes of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan, Bob McAdoo, David Robinson, Bob Lanier, Artis Gilmore, Patrick Ewing and Hakeem Olajuwon.
* On Mar. 1 vs. New York, Dwight Howard, at 25 years and 83 days old, became the youngest player in NBA history to amass 7,000 career rebounds. He passed Wilt Chamberlain, who was 26 years and 128 days old when he passed the 7,000 rebound plateau.
* Dwight Howard has now recorded at least 1,000 rebounds and 100 blocked shots in each of the last six seasons. Since blocked shots were officially tracked in 1973-74, only Moses Malone has done it more (seven seasons).
* Since 2006-07, Dwight Howard has recorded at least 10 rebounds and two blocked shots in the same game 231 times (including 48 times this season), by far the most in the NBA during that span. Taking it a step further, since 2008-09, Dwight Howard has recorded at least 15 rebounds and five blocked shots in the same game 22 times (six this season). The next closest players are Marcus Camby and Andrew Bogut with six each.
* Dwight Howard has recorded a 20-point/20-rebound game 32 times during his NBA career, including six times this season (three 20/20′s in 2009-10). He ranks second among all active players in the NBA (Shaquille O’Neal, 34). The next closest player to Howard is Boston’s Kevin Garnett, who has eight. On Jan. 30 vs. Cleveland, Howard tallied 20 points and 20 boards in just three quarters of play. It marks the third time during Howard’s career that he has attained a 20/20 game by the end of the third quarter. No other player has done this even once during the past six NBA seasons. Howard also has 48 career games with 20-or-more rebounds, including eight times this season (nine last season. On Feb. 11 vs. New Orleans, Howard notched 20 points and 17 rebounds. According to Elias, he became just the fourth active player to record 100 or more games with 20+ points and 15+ rebounds. Howard joined Shaquille O’Neal (215), Tim Duncan(162) and Kevin Garnett (153).
3. Dirk Nowitzki – Dallas Mavericks (23.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 2.5 apg):
The Mavs had their five-game winning streak snapped last night in Los Angeles, but the loss can’t be pinned on Dirk, who poured in a team-high 27 points and grabbed a game-high 13 rebounds. (It should also be noted that the Mavs still have the best road record in the NBA.) But, at this point, we certainly shouldn’t be surprised by Dirk’s excellence. One of the game’s most underrated superstars, Dirk’s incredible consistency ranks him alongside some of the best to ever do it. Per Elias Sports Bureau: Nowitzki surpassed 1,500 points for the Mavericks this season on Wednesday night against the Clippers. It’s the 11th straight season in which Nowitzki has reached that milestone, matching Kobe Bryant for the longest current streak of that kind in the league. Before this year, no NBA player had fashioned a streak of 11 or more consecutive seasons with at least 1,500 points since Karl Malone did it in 12 straight seasons from 1986-87 through 1997-98.
4. Kobe Bryant – Los Angeles Lakers (25.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 4.8 apg):
Speaking of all-time greats, you can’t get too far down the list without mentioning Kobe Bean Bryant. The Lakers, who are an incredible 16-1 since the All-Star Break, are now just 2.5 games back of the Spurs for the top overall record in the league, and the #1 seed out West. Not surprisingly, Kobe has been the driving force behind the Lakers surge of late. Over his last four games, Bryant is averaging 34.3 ppg, 6 boards, and 6 dimes. It appears the demise of the Lakers and Mr. Bryant may have been greatly exaggerated.
5. LeBron James – Miami HEAT (26.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 6.9 apg):
{AUTHOR_BOX}Although he remains the most physically talented and uniquely gifted basketball player on the planet, King James (as I have been saying since October) won’t win his third straight MVP this season. There have been a number of forces conspiring against LBJ:
1) winning three MVPs in a row is extremely difficult (they never even gave MJ three in a row).
2) LeBron joining the Super Friends in Miami, and then seeing the HEAT vastly under-perform, relative to expectations.
3) Far too many foolish, self-inflicted wounds to count…
In the Race:
Chris Paul – New Orleans Hornets (16.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 9.8 apg):
New Orleans received the devastating news last week David West would miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. However, the Hornets, led by their captain and all-world PG Chris Paul, have managed to win three of their last four contests. It appears they will fight their way into the postseason. CP3′s statistics have been stellar, and his advanced metrics are incredible as well – Paul leads the NBA in ‘win shares per 48 minutes’ and is a close second in adjusted plus-minus. He is undoubtedly one of the league’s most valuable players; remember, last season when he was sidelined for most of the year with a bum knee, the Hornets finished eight games below .500.
Kevin Durant – Oklahoma City Thunder (27.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 2.8 apg):
Winners of five straight and nine of their last 10 games, the Thunder are playing as well as any team in the league right now. Obviosuly, Kevin Durant is a major reason why. Despite that fact he averaged ‘just’ 25.5 ppg in March (his lowest monthly total of the season), Durant was remarkably efficient on the offensive end. He only took 17.6 shots per game (he had been averaging 20 FGA per contest), and Durant also shot 46% from behind the arc and over 90% from the free-throw stripe. He also dished out 3.1 assists per game, versus just 1.4 turnovers – far below his career average of 3+ turnovers. Again, the most important stat was the OKC’s win/loss record, which has been phenomenal. The maturation of Kevin Durant continues…
Russell Westbrook – Oklahoma City Thunder (22.0 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 8.3 apg):
One of the primary reasons why Durant has been asked to do less offensively, is because Russell Westbrook has blossomed into a absolute stud. When he came into the league out of UCLA, nobody doubted Westbrook’s athleticism, but many pundits questioned his shooting ability. Well, I think we can safely put those concerns to bed. Consider these numbers: Over his last 25 games, Russell Westbrook is shooting 46.7% from the floor, 47.4% from three-point land, and 81.6% from the free-throw stripe. The numbers are especially impressive when you consider Westbrook came into this season shooting just 24.8% from deep (D Rose isn’t the only PG who dramatically improved his jumper). Oh, and RW also dished out 8.1 assists, grabbed 3.6 boards, and averaged 2.2 steals per game in the month of March as well…
Dwyane Wade – Miami HEAT (25.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 4.5 apg):
When you finish second in the entire league in scoring over full month of NBA action (as Wade did in March), you would expect that player to likely generate significant MVP buzz. However, ‘normal circumstances’ rarely apply nowadays in Miami. Although Wade finished #2 in the NBA in scoring in March, he was also just #2 on his own team – Yes, LeBron led the league in points-per-game. Yet another example of why it will be so difficult for either Wade or James to garner enough votes to be crowned MVP anytime soon.
Honorable Mention: Manu Ginobili, Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, LaMarcus Aldridge, Al Horford, Paul Pierce, Pau Gasol, Amar’e Stoudemire
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