Award Watch: Coach of the Year
The stretch drive to the playoffs is finally underway. Playoffs, playoff seeding, and momentum are all up for grabs over the next eight weeks.
With less than 30 games to go, the reality of how many more wins is possible should have begun to sink in, and the ability of certain teams to exceed preseason expectations has already become a foregone conclusion.
The Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich continues to reside at our number one ranking for Coach of the Year and he still has a possible 70-win season. The challengers for COY will likely need the Spurs to falter for a shot at the award this time.
The Carmelo Anthony trade to the Knicks and the movement of so many players between teams in the deal will certainly make life interesting for coaches Mike D’Antoni and George Karl going forward.
#1 Gregg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs, 46-10, Pace-to-win 67, last year: 50-32
(Last week #1, 46-9)
San Antonio won 50-games last season as the once mighty Spurs were showing signs of age and the addition of Richard Jefferson was just not working out. While no one had the Spurs missing this year’s playoffs, they were not expected to do any better than last season either.
The Spurs have massively exceeded expectations, and when one cannot point to the addition of a star player, the credit for the improved play goes to the coach.
Coach Popovich has led his team to winning streaks of 12, 10, and 8 games this season and has only lost two-games in a row once and that was on the road back-to-back against the Knicks and Celtics. The Spurs have just finished the toughest stretch of games they will face this year, the annual rodeo road-trip, where they went 6-3. It will not be easy to catch Popovich.
#2 Doc Rivers, Boston Celtics 40-14, Pace-to-win 61, last year: 50-32
(Last week #2, 39-14)
Coach Rivers could legitimately complain as much as anyone about losing key personnel for extended periods this season. It is hard to remember if the Celtics have ever had the entire lineup that they planned on fielding this season.
The Celtics won just 50-games last year and expectations were that they would win about the same number this season. Not because the team was in decline or lacked talent, but rather because the Celtics were supposed to be focused on being healthy for the post season with only minimal regard for what happened during the regular season.
Blame it on LeBron James and Miami, the Celtics have been unexpectedly motivated all season and have beaten the HEAT three times already.
Still first-place in the East, the Celtics have not lost more than two-games in a row this season. Coach Rivers deserves a lot of recognition for his team’s success.
#3 Tom Thibodeau, Chicago Bulls, 38-16, Pace-to-win 58, last year: 41-41, (Vinny Del Negro)
(Last week: #4, 36-16)
The Bulls were expected to be a 50-win team this season and take first-place the central division but after a 9-8 start, there was just a little doubt. Since then rookie head coach Tom Thibodeau has his team winning 77 percent of their games and in a position to challenge for first-place in the East.
If the Bulls continue to win at the same pace since their slow start, the team could end up with a 60-win season and Coach Thibodeau will be in line for a significant number of COY votes, but it will be hard for Thibodeau to overtake Popovich unless the Spurs falter.
#4 Doug Collins, Philadelphia 76ers, 27-29, Pace-to-win 40, last year: 27-55 (Eddie Jordan)
(Last week: Not Ranked, 26-28)
Head Coach Doug Collins has as many wins at the All-Star break as last year’s head coach did all of last season and almost nobody expected the Sixers were going anywhere this year. Philadelphia is solidly in seventh place in the East just two-games behind sixth-place New York and so far ahead of last year’s pace and this year’s expectations that Coach Collins is finally getting noticed for COY consideration.
The 76ers started the season 3-13 and 0-6 against Toronto, Washington, and Cleveland. Since then the Sixers have won 60 percent of their games and are on pace for a plus .500 season.
While a 43-win season isn’t enough to win Collins COY, it is enough to get noticed and garner Collins a lot of respect for the job he has done in Philadelphia. Could Collins get the Sixers to up the pace over the season’s final 26 games and make a real run for COY?
#5 Lionel Hollins, Memphis Grizzlies, 31-26, Pace-to-win 45, last year: 40-42
(Last week: Not Ranked, 30-26)
At the end of December, the Grizzlies were 14-18 and Coach Hollins was leading Memphis down an all too familiar path. Since then the team is 17-8 with impressive wins over the Lakers, Magic, Mavericks, and Thunder (twice).
The surprising Grizzlies find themselves in a tie for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West despite preseason expectations of another trip to the lottery.
A definite long shot for COY, if Coach Hollins can keep the Grizzlies winning at their recent pace, this team could end up with as many as 48-wins.
Honorable Mentions
Monty Williams, New Orleans Hornets, 33-25, Pace-to-win 47, last year: 37-45, (Bryon Scott/ Jeff Bower)
(Last week #4, 33-23)
The Hornets have seen winning streaks of eight-games and ten-games followed up by periods of wildly inconsistent results and are presently on a 2-9 run that doesn’t yield a lot of confidence in their future success.
The good news is the current problems seem to revolve around the injury to Emeka Okafor who should return following the All-Star break and the players still believe in their coach.
"I have the ultimate confidence in coach and I think truly that we have the best coaching staff in the league," said All-Star Chris Paul.
If the Hornets turn things around quickly, Coach Williams does have the Hornets on a 47-win pace and that combined with all the distractions this team has faced during the season will get Williams some votes. This team is still significantly ahead of their preseason expectations.
{AUTHOR_BOX}Rick Carlisle, Dallas Mavericks, 40-16, Pace-to-win 59, last year: 55-27
(Last week: Honorable Mention, 38-16 )
The Mavericks are on a 13-1 run and it’s possible only the Lakers twice and the Spurs are standing in the way of Coach Carlisle running the table.
Carlisle has done a great job with the Mavericks this season by getting his team to buy into defense and getting the most out of the players he has.
Unfortunately even winning the season’s final 26 games, as difficult as that would be, may not be enough to catch Popovich’s Spurs and Dallas was second in the West last season with 55 wins and did nothing to lower expectations this season. If it’s close, Coach Carlisle is not likely to get the nod over his rival.
Erik Spoelstra, Miami HEAT, 41-15, Pace-to-win 60, last year: 47-35
(Last week: #5, 39-15)
The HEAT have won 82 percent of their games after that 9-8 start to the season but this impressive record doesn’t include any success against their rivals from Boston. The Celtics own the HEAT’s only loss in their past 11 games.
A lot of people had the HEAT winning the East this season and they still could, even if Boston and Chicago continue to play well. Unfortunately for Coach Spoelstra, when preseason expectations are this high, merely winning the East isn’t nearly enough.
If the Heat continues to win at an 82 percent pace, they will end up with a 62-win season and Spoelstra will be recognized for doing a good job. A good job will not win him COY.
Some Coaches to Watch
There are some coaches who continue to get our attention and could move up if things change.
Mike D’Antoni, New York Knicks, 28-26, Pace-to-win 43, last year: 29-53
(Last week: Honorable Mention, 27-26)
Throw out everything that Coach D’Antoni has done so far this season and trash any preseason expectations. D’Antoni could impress everyone by steam-rolling his way to the finish line, but with all the changes to his lineup, no one will be surprised if things don’t go so smoothly for a while.
George Karl, Denver Nuggets, 32-25, Pace-to-win 46, last year: 53-29
(Last week: Honorable Mention, 31-24)
The Carmelo Anthony circus has left town and Coach Karl has some nice new talent to integrate into the Nuggets’ rotation. Of course the trade deadline is still days away and more moves could be coming.
It’s still worth watching the Nuggets but our expectations have temporarily vanished.
Nate McMillan, Portland Trail Blazers, 32-24, Pace-to-win 47, last year: 50-32
(Last week: Not Ranked, 31-24)
Coach McMillan has shown that he can take a roster with injuries to key players and still squeeze out a decent season. While that might be applauded, it doesn’t get usually COY recognition unless he can also exceed expectations. Six wins in a row gets McMillan on our watch list but he still has a long ways to go.
Notes:
The NBA Coach of the Year (COY) is selected at the end of the regular season by a media panel whose members each cast votes for their first, second and third place choices.
HOOPSWORLD is ranking the COY race based on how the coach’s team is performing against last year’s record, this year’s preseason expectations, and on how they are handling adversity during the season. A strong winning record is almost mandatory, but merely meeting already high expectations will not be enough. There is only a slight chance of a lottery bound coach winning this award.
Did we miss someone? Let us know in the comments section below or contact us during HOOPSWORLD’s daily NBA chats.
You can send me comments or questions about COY, the Toronto Raptors, or anything else in the NBA to my weekly chat and check back on Thursday at noon ET for a response.
Loading ...
