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When talking about the NBA Draft one of the more interesting aspects can be looking at history to give an example of what to expect from the future. Our history teachers always told us you can’t know where you are going until you know where you have been, right?

In that spirit, here’s a glance at the last 10 years of the first round of the NBA Draft in an effort to see what kind of players a team should reasonably expect at any given draft slot. For each of the 30 first-round draft slots from 2001-2010 (29 in 2003 and 28 in 2001 and 2002), the players drafted at each slot were compared only against each other to figure out which player ended up as the best, next-best, and worst at the given slot. The choices were not compared against the players taken before and after them, nor was the pick evaluated for the team who chose them; simply, the players’ individual careers compared to the other nine (or less, in 2001-03) at the same slot.

Players are listed with the team they ended draft night with, not necessarily the one who made the pick at that slot.

#1 – LeBron James (Cleveland, 2003)
Next Two: Derrick Rose (Chicago, 2008), Dwight Howard (Orlando, 2004)
Worst: Greg Oden (Portland, 2007)

At number one that player absolutely should be a future All-Star, but (so far) only five of the past 10 top overall picks have made it (add Yao Ming and Blake Griffin to the list above). Andrew Bogut, Andrea Bargnani, and John Wall may soon join them. Oden beats out Kwame Brown for the worst top pick. Why? Ten years later Brown is still a solid player – will we be able to say the same thing about Oden in 2016?

#2 – Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City, 2007)
Next Two: LaMarcus Aldridge (Portland, 2006), Emeka Okafor (Charlotte, 2004)
Worst: Hasheem Thabeet (Memphis, 2009)

The number two spot, surprisingly, hasn’t been nearly as productive as the ones before and after. Durant is the only All-Star. Really? The only one? That’s amazing. Thabeet beats out Jay Williams, whose career was ended way, way too early because of a motorcycle accident, as the worst. Being traded in your second season after stints in the D-League will do that.

#3 – Deron Williams (Utah, 2005)
Next Two: Pau Gasol (Memphis (2001), Carmelo Anthony (Denver, 2003)
Worst: Adam Morrison (Charlotte, 2006)

The number three spot has also produced four All-Stars (add Al Horford to that list) and, apart from Morrison, every single one of the number three picks has gone on to productive NBA careers.

#4 – Chris Paul (New Orleans, 2005)
Next Two: Chris Bosh (Toronto, 2003), Russell Westbrook (Oklahoma City, 2008)
Worst: Shaun Livingston (L.A. Clippers, 2004)

Three All-Stars in this draft slot and that doesn’t even include 2009 Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans. Livingston gets the title of worse because of his injury, but it’s neck-and-neck with Eddy Curry, whose highs were higher.

#5 – Dwyane Wade (Miami, 2003)
Next Two: Kevin Love (Minnesota, 2008), Jason Richardson (Golden State, 2001)
Worst: Nikoloz Tskitishvili (Denver, 2002)

Richardson was never an All-Star like the first two on this list, but his career has still been very productive, so gets the edge over Devin Harris (who was an All-Star once). Will Ricky Rubio join that group from the five spot?

#6 – Chris Kaman (L.A. Clippers, 2003)
Next Two: Brandon Roy (Portland, 2006), Shane Battier (Memphis, 2001)
Worst: Dajuan Wagner (Cleveland, 2002)

Less than 12 months ago not putting Roy in the top spot here would have been sacrilegious, but considering the degradation in his knees the edge goes to Kaman. Wagner, unfortunately, had his career cut short because of illness.

#7 – Nene (Denver, 2002)
Next Two: Eric Gordon (L.A. Clippers, 2008), Luol Deng (Chicago, 2004)
Worst: Eddie Griffin (Houston, 2001)

No All-Stars at seven from this group – yet. Nene still has a shot and Gordon should absolutely be considered as early as 2011 (if there is an All-Star Game) and Stephen Curry could be in the mix as well.

#8 – Rudy Gay (Memphis, 2006)
Next Two: Channing Frye (New York, 2005), T.J. Ford (Milwaukee, 2003)
Worst: Joe Alexander (Milwaukee, 2008)

This seems to be the point where most of the players at the slot end up being solid role players, not stars. Gay, of course, is absolutely a star – there are always exceptions. Remember when the 2006 Draft was considered shallow with no stars? Keep that in mind every time you hear someone say the same things about 2011.

#9 – Amar’e Stoudemire (Phoenix, 2002)
Next Two: Joakim Noah (Chicago, 2007), Andre Iguodala (Philadelphia, 2004)
Worst: Patrick O’Bryant (Golden State, 2006)

Stoudemire is an All-Star, Noah should be one next season (would have been this season except for injury), and Iguodala is one of the hottest names in the trade market. O’Bryant? Um, not so much.

#10 – Joe Johnson (Boston, 2001)
Next Two: Andrew Bynum (L.A. Lakers, 2005), Caron Butler (Miami, 2002)
Worst: Luke Jackson (Cleveland, 2004)

Johnson and Butler have been multi-time All-Stars and if Bynum could ever put together a healthy 50 games from the beginning of the season he might be as well. Paul Pierce was also picked tenth (in 1998), so this slot has seen some excellent results. Jackson gets the edge, barely, over Mouhamed Sene for worst pick.

#11 – Mickael Pietrus (Golden State, 2003)
Next Two: Andris Biedrins (Golden State, 2004), J.J. Redick (Orlando, 2006)
Worst: Fran Vasquez (Orlando, 2005)

Eleven is the exact opposite of the spot previous. The best players are nothing better than role players, with Pietrus the only one who could be considered consistent. Magic fans, I’m sorry, but Vasquez had to be mentioned.

#12 – Nick Collison (Seattle, 2003)
Next Two: Vladimir Radmanovic (Seattle, 2001), Thaddeus Young (Philadelphia, 2007)
Worst: Robert Swift (Seattle, 2004)

Young may be one of the top restricted free agents this year and Collison could be the most underrated power forward in the NBA, willing to do just about anything for the Thunder. Seattle, after the Gary Payton era, apparently picked 12th a lot.

#13 – Richard Jefferson (New Jersey Nets, 2001)
Next Two: Thabo Sefolosha (Chicago, 2006), Marcus Banks (Memphis, 2003)
Worst: Marcus Haislip (Milwaukee, 2002)

Jefferson has never been an All-Star, but has been a team leader and a very, very productive player. Haislip’s four-year (nonconsecutive) career: 89 games, 3.5 points, 1.5 rebounds.

#14 – Troy Murphy (Golden State, 2001)
Next Two: Luke Ridnour (Seattle, 2003), Ronnie Brewer (Utah, 2006)
Worst: Rashad McCants (Minnesota, 2005)

{AUTHOR_BOX}No All-Stars here, but again some solid role players. Anthony Randolph may end up the best of the bunch if he finally gets a consistent role. McCants has serious talent, but his attitude didn’t give him another shot in the NBA after 2008-09.

#15 – Al Jefferson (Boston, 2004)
Next Two: Rodney Stuckey (Detroit, 2007), Robin Lopez (Phoenix, 2008)
Worst: Reece Gaines (Orlando, 2003)

Jefferson has put up numbers but doesn’t seem to help his team really win games and Stuckey may not even be a starter – fifteen hasn’t produced much. As far as the worst…Gaines or Cedric Simmons? Went with Gaines.

#16 – Nick Young (Washington, 2007)
Next Two: Marreese Speights (Philadelphia, 2008), Kirk Snyder (Utah, 2004)
Worst: Kirk Haston (Charlotte, 2001)

When the best player at the spot is one with great potential but also consistency issues, that may be a reason to not expect much (Philly, talking to you with #16 overall come Thursday). Snyder was even out of the league for a couple years.

#17 – Josh Smith (Atlanta, 2004)
Next Two: Danny Granger (Indiana, 2005), Roy Hibbert (Indiana, 2008)
Worst: Michael Bradley (Toronto, 2001)

Seventeen, on the other hand, has been a gold mine – especially to the Pacers. Granger has been an All-Star and Smith and Hibbert could join him soon. Jrue Holiday is drawing rave review in Philly. Of course, this slot also includes Bradley and Zarko Cabarkapa.

#18 – David West (New Orleans, 2003)
Next Two: J.R. Smith (New Orleans, 2004), Ty Lawson (Denver, 2009)
Worst: No Pick (Minnesota, 2001, who lost the pick from the Joe Smith fiasco)

One All-Star, one explosive scorer, and the guy who made Chauncey Billups expendable in the Carmelo Anthony deal? That’s a solid slot. The Wolves get the edge here over Curtis Borchardt and Gerald Green (and will two more times). The reasoning? Having no options at all is worse than having a player who didn’t become a solid contributor. That leaves zero chance.

#19 – Zach Randolph (Portland, 2001)
Next Two: Dorrell Wright (Miami, 2004), Sasha Pavlovic (Utah, 2003)
Worst: Ryan Humphrey (Orlando, 2002)

At this point in the draft the future All-Stars are few and far between, but Randolph is by far the most productive player at this spot and arguably the ones around him. After that the drop-off is pretty steep.

#20 – Jameer Nelson (Orlando, 2004)
Next Two: Brendan Haywood (Orlando, 2001), Dahntay Jones (Boston, 2003)
Worst: Alexis Ajinca (Charlotte, 2008)

The Magic have done well at this position, even if they didn’t keep Haywood through the summer of 2001. Ajinca, on the other hand, may not get another shot as he enters free agency.

#21 – Rajon Rondo (Boston, 2006)
Next Two: Nate Robinson (New York, 2005), Boris Diaw (Atlanta, 2003)
Worst: Pavel Podkolzin (Dallas, 2004)

Phoenix has played a huge role in the 21 spot. They sold Rondo to the Celtics and Robinson to the Knicks, then traded for Diaw in the Joe Johnson deal and made him a star. Darren Collison and Ryan Anderson have also proved very valuable at this spot. Dallas wishes 2004 had never happened.

#22 – Jared Dudley (Charlotte, 2007)
Next Two: Courtney Lee (Orlando, 2008), Jarrett Jack (Portland, 2005)
Worst: Jeryl Sasser (Orlando, 2001)

Dudley, Lee, and Jack have all become solid role players, sometimes starters and fantastic sixth men for their teams. They have also been traded at least once. Sasser played 82 games over two seasons before being waived.

#23 – Tayshaun Prince (Detroit, 2002)
Next Two: Travis Outlaw (Portland, 2003), Wilson Chandler (New York, 2007)
Worst: Sergei Monia (Portland, 2004)

Prince may never have been an All-Star, but was the glue on a great run of Detroit Pistons teams. Monia played just one season in the NBA, during which he was traded to Sacramento, scored a total of 77 points, and left the league.

#24 – Kyle Lowry (Memphis, 2006)
Next Two: Serge Ibaka (Seattle, 2008), Delonte West (Boston, 2004)
Worst: No Pick (Minnesota, 2002, who lost the pick from the Joe Smith fiasco)

Rudy Fernandez, Luther Head, and Brian Cook have also been productive players in the NBA, so number 24 seems to have a good mojo. If a worst player had to be picked, Raul Lopez (Utah, 2001).

#25 – Gerald Wallace (Sacramento, 2001)
Next Two: Nic Batum (Portland, 2008), Shannon Brown (Cleveland, 2006)
Worst: Morris Almond (Utah, 2007)

Carlos Delfino and Tony Allen, two very solid players, were also chosen at this spot. Wallace making the All-Star team from the 25 slot is definitely an aberration.

#26 – Kevin Martin (Sacramento, 2004)
Next Two: Samuel Dalembert (Philadelphia, 2001), Aaron Brooks (Houston, 2007)
Worst: Ndudi Ebi (Minnesota, 2003)

Again, some solid production from late picks. It’s not just your imagination – the players drafted in the mid-twenties do seem to be more productive than those in the mid-teens. Hmm… As for Ebi, this was the one first-round pick the Wolves were allowed to keep in a five-year span. Oops.

#27 – Kendrick Perkins (Boston, 2003)
Next Two: Arron Afflalo (Detroit, 2007), Sasha Vujacic (L.A. Lakers, 2004)
Worst: Chris Jefferies (Toronto, 2002)

No All-Stars here, but key players on championship teams for sure. Afflalo will be one of the most sought after restricted free agents this summer as the Nuggets have to choose between him and Wilson Chandler. Jefferies is just another unproductive pick from Toronto in the early part of the decade.

#28 – Tony Parker (San Antonio, 2001)
Next Two: Leandro Barbosa (Phoenix, 2003), Beno Udrih (San Antonio, 2004)
Worst: Ian Mahinmi (San Antonio, 2005)

Just for fun, let’s point out that San Antonio also drafted Barbosa before trading him. This section right here justifies why they San Antonio management always should get much respect. Current backup big man Tiago Splitter was also drafted 28th in 2007. That has to be some kind of record, right? Mahinmi even has a ring now.

#29 – Josh Howard (Dallas, 2003)
Next Two: Toney Douglas (New York, 2009), Mardy Collins (New York, 2006)
Worst: No Pick (Minnesota, 2004, who lost the pick from the Joe Smith fiasco)

Howard was an All-Star once, Douglas is the best non-star asset the Knicks have, and after that, well, Collins? Really? Yikes. 2010 number 29 pick Daniel Orton (Orlando) didn’t play a single minute due to injury. If a worst player were chosen, who would it be? Wayne Simien (Miami, 2005)? Alando Tucker (Phoenix, 2007)? There wasn’t even a 29 pick in 2001 and 2002, yet there are plenty of options.

#30 – David Lee (New York, 2005)
Next Two: Christian Eyenga (Cleveland, 2009), Lazar Hayward (Washington, 2010)
Worst: J.R. Giddens (Boston, 2008)

One All-Star – check. Intriguing athletes? Check and check. After that there isn’t much to get excited about. Joel Freeland and Petteri Koponen (Portland, 2006 and 2007) have yet to make a NBA appearance though the team has high hopes. That leaves Giddens (38-game career) and David Harrison (189 games) to choose from. Yikes.

There you go. Going over the list some teams show up in the Worst or Best sections more than others, which is interesting. Telling, also.

All-Stars can be found at just about any draft slot and yes, the earlier the pick the better the chances, but it’s not a given anywhere. It’s still a combination of talent, fit, opportunity, and luck that will make any given pick a success.

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