HOOPSWORLD | Basketball News & NBA Rumors

by Scott Gleeson, USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to another session of Bracket Briefing, our attempt to provide you with essential information on the Big Dance — forecasting the Ali Farokhmaneshes before they spark the stunning upset we’re talking about for days.

Soundtrack: Before you read any further, listen to today’s jam of the day.

Tournament’s biggest myth: Louisville’s greatness

Look, there’s no denying the Cardinals are A) the best team in the tournament, thus making them the favorite to win the national title, and are B) playing with the momentum of a Big East Conference tournament championship. Whoever’s picking Louisville is making a smart, conservative pick. But they’re also wearing blinders. When Louisville is clicking — Russ Smith scoring at will, Peyton Siva penetrating and creating, Gorgui Dieng controlling the paint — this team looks Final Four good. When it’s not, though — Smith forcing shots, Siva going scoreless and Dieng in foul trouble — this team looks Sweet Sixteen good at best. We’re forgetting Rick Pitino’s group lost three consecutive games earlier in the season and that was due to an ailing offense. Yes, the Cardinals will smother teams on defense to lead to chemistry in transition. But in the halfcourt sets, this team is shaky.

History tells us: Another reason Louisville loses: Only five times in NCAA tournament history (including last season) has the No. 1 overall seed won the title. Last year’s Kentucky team was the first overall No. 1 seed to win it all since 1995. If this year’s unpredictable regular season was any indication of the tournament’s outcome, it’s difficult to see even one or two No. 1 seeds winning. When it comes to dissecting Louisville, yes, momentum is crucial — but this team is not like Connecticut in 2011, the last Big East team to win the conference tournament crown and then run the field in the Dance.

What you missed: The tournament started yesterday with North Carolina A&T surviving an upset (if that’s such a thing in a No. 16 vs. No. 16 seed clash) by holding off 15-20 Liberty. Then Saint Mary’s proved it clearly belonged in the … [For more on Bracket Briefing: No. 1 Louisville is overrated, seriously, click here.]