By The Numbers: Kevin Durant For MVP
One of the many joys experienced by NBA analysts and fans are season-long discussions of which player deserves the prestigious Most Valuable Player award. Such discussions include a host of names as the games unfold; but when the regular season draws to a close, few players reveal themselves as legitimate MVP contenders. At times, one name easily jumps to the forefront.
This is one of those rare NBA seasons that is ending without a consensus declaration for MVP.
We delved heartily into this subject and submit that, based on a study of the overall pertinent numbers, Kevin Durant of the Oklahoma City Thunder appears most deserving of MVP honors for the 2011-12 NBA season.
Before we start, let’s look at some interesting facts about the NBA’s MVP award:
• The MVP, who receives the Maurice Podoloff Trophy, is decided by a panel of sportswriters and broadcasters.
• Who is Maurice Podoloff? The league’s first commissioner (then president) who served from 1946-1963.
• Prior to the 1979-80 season, NBA players’ votes determined the MVP. In 2010, the NBA partnered with Kia Motors and allowed fans, collectively, to represent one of the 124 votes.
• Every MVP winner since 1982-83 has played for a team that won at least 50 games in an 82-game regular season (not including the 1998-99 season wherein a lockout shortened the season to a total of 50 games).
• Kareem Abdul-Jabbar has won the MVP award six times, more than any other player.
There is no shortage of recent predictions for the league’s MVP this season. Within the last month, Derrick Rose (last season’s MVP) and Kevin Love said Kevin Durant should win the title. Just this week Durant said LeBron James should claim the honors. Abdul-Jabbar and Steve Nash named Durant. Hakeem Olajuwon and Shaquille O’Neal side with James. It goes on and on.
Recent comments from James suggest he feels deserving of MVP this year. The always-modest Durant said he feels blessed to even be included in the conversation.
While there is no set formula to follow in casting MVP votes, individual statistics obviously play a big part. Let’s break down the numbers of the most frequently-mentioned MVP contenders (there are more, such as Tony Parker and Rajon Rondo, but we limited it to the below five):
KEVIN DURANT (Oklahoma City Thunder 47-19):
PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% TO
28.0 8.0 3.5 1.3 1.2 9.7 .496 2.0 .387 6.5 .860 3.8
LEBRON JAMES (Miami HEAT 46-19):
PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% TO
27.1 7.9 6.2 1.9 0.8 10.0 .531 0.9 .362 6.2 .771 3.4
KOBE BRYANT (Los Angeles Lakers 41-24):
PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% TO
27.9 5.4 4.6 1.2 0.3 9.9 .430 1.5 .303 6.6 .845 3.5
CHRIS PAUL (Los Angeles Clippers 40-26):
PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% TO
19.8 3.6 9.1 2.5 0.1 7.1 .478 1.3 .371 4.3 .861 2.1
KEVIN LOVE (Minnesota Timberwolves 26-39):
PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% TO
26.0 13.3 2.0 0.9 0.5 8.6 .448 1.9 .372 6.9 .824 2.3
No doubt these are outstanding numbers for all five players. We won’t dissect and compare certain advanced stats, such as Usage Percentage, Player Efficiency Ratings (PER) and Win Shares, and will instead stick with those stats commonly understood in measuring players’ performances.
Unofficial studies indicate the MVP title is typically, not always, awarded to that player who scores among the highest points in the league and whose team has a winning record. Add in other basic, yet telling, stats, along with a season-long eye test, and the field usually narrows.
Keep in mind, the MVP is not simply the best player in the league. The key question is this: which player is the most valuable to a team? Many players fit that test, but there can only be one winner.
Why then should Durant – the league’s reigning back-to-back leading scorer and three-time All-Star – win Most Valuable Player this season?
Putting aside any reasons that fall on the personal side, such as his demonstrated leadership and humility, we’re looking strictly at Durant’s numbers, and they support an MVP title.
Obviously he fills up the stat sheet virtually every night he’s on the court and excels in a variety of basketball skills. He very well may grab the league’s leading-scorer title for the third season in a row (Bryant is on his heels). His team finished second in the Western Conference, and a back-to-back Northwest Division championship banner was just raised in their home arena. In fact, the Thunder hovered at the top of the West’s standings for weeks upon weeks before the San Antonio Spurs (49-16) finally assumed the number-one spot.
There is one critical area in which Durant measurably rises above other MVP candidates and that is in clutch performance. Check the production per 36 minutes of clutch time for those above-named five players:
*Per NBA.com
—————Pts FGM FG% 3PM FTM FT% Reb TO Blk Stl
Durant 34.3 11.1 39% 3.3 8.8 88% 9.5 1.7 2.1 0.7
James 30.3 9.8 45% 1.7 9.1 71% 11.4 2.4 1.7 1.3
Bryant 29.3 9.0 36% 2.0 9.2 82% 6.1 2.9 0.6 0.8
Paul 30.8 9.1 42% 1.1 11.6 96% 4.5 3.0 0.2 2.8
Love 26.8 7.4 42% 2.5 9.5 89% 12.3 2.2 0.6 1.2
Not one single player sweeps all categories, but note how Durant ranks toward the higher end on many, killing it in points and three-pointers made, plus turnovers and blocks. When a game comes down to the wire, very few can disagree that the ball needs to be in his hands for the best chance at success. This is exactly why his clutch assist rate is lower (0.5) than the others (James-5.7, Bryant-4.7. Paul-6.7, Love-1.2).
Now, let’s see how the Thunder performed in clutch situations when Durant was on the floor vs. the other contenders:
*Per 82games.com
——————-Mins Net Pts Off Def Win%
Durant 100% +35 111.6 97.5 62.5
James 81% +12 102.0 95.0 55.6
Bryant 100% +57 105.0 86.5 64.5
Paul 89% -8 98.7 101.6 55.6
Love 90% +7 110.0 106.9 51.9
Again, it speaks volumes. Durant has taken a team with a 23-59 record just three years ago (2008-09) and molded it into a legitimate contender this season. In between, he led them to a 50-32 record in 2009-10 (losing in a first-round playoff appearance to a then-concerned Los Angeles Lakers) and a Western Conference Finals appearance last season (55-27) vs. the eventual title winners, Dallas Mavericks.
That’s quite a jump for a 23-year-old player who’s in his fifth NBA year.
Durant is extremely valuable to the Thunder, and here are more statistical reasons why:
• He’s involved in 31.3% of plays on the floor. In crunch time, it jumps to 41.4%.
• Durant leads the Thunder in Win Shares (an estimate of wins contributed by a player) at 12.2.
• His Defensive Rebound Percentage leads the Thunder at 20.4%.
• Durant is league-ranked fourth in PER at 26.2 and is the only Thunder player in the top eight. In the first three spots, you’ll find two HEAT players (James and Dwyane Wade) and in the top seven, two Clippers (Paul and Blake Griffin) appear.
• He leads the Thunder in minutes played, field goals attempted and made, three-pointers attempted and made, free throws attempted and made, defensive rebounds, total rebounds and points.
• He was named the 2012 All-Star Game MVP (36 points).
What would the Thunder be without Kevin Durant? A solid team; not elite.
He’s an unquestioned leader who is unafraid of the big shot, and he can make shots from anywhere on the court at any time. He was named the Western Conference Player of the Month for February, 2012 and March, 2012. He knows how to stay healthy; in fact, he leads the league in total minutes played this season.
We won’t know if Durant has captured the leading scoring title again until Bryant finishes his last game, but for him to be knocking on the door of a three-year run is a remarkable feat. It hasn’t been done since Michael Jordan’s run in 1995-98.
The intent here is to show that numbers support how Durant is deserving of the Most Valuable Player award this season. We recognize other star players are deserving as well, but Durant has an edge.
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