Each week, HOOPSWORLD NBA analyst and coach Anthony Macri opens his notebook and offers an assortment of observations on games, players, and teams from throughout the league. Coach Macri serves as a player development consultant for the Pro Training Center and Coach David Thorpe, working with a variety of NBA players on their skills and game understanding. The Coach’s Notebook appears on HOOPSWORLD every Thursday.

Denver: A Tale of 2 Matchups

One of the most talked about dynamics since the trade deadline has been the improvement of the Denver Nuggets. On both sides of the ball the Nuggets have excelled since moving on from Carmelo Anthony and acquiring their new pieces. How this progress translates into postseason success, however, will depend a great deal on their matchup in the first round.

Perhaps more than anything, Denver has managed to take their already efficient offensive attack and streamline it. A versatile and speedy unit, the Nuggets are particularly efficient in transition and conversion. Their ability to turn defense into offense is as good as any team in the league because they are so quick in transition and have finishers at nearly every position on the court. The way they play defense contributes to this reality. Designated traps and switching and harassing teams into long, contested jump shots naturally lead to runouts and quick scores at the other end.

Teams with a tendency to shoot more jump shots as a core of their offensive attack (i.e., the Dallas Mavericks) will struggle against Denver. Jump-shooting teams like the Mavs have problems because Denver’s defense is built to disrupt passing lanes, prevent kickouts, and challenge shooters – and when they rebound, they move the ball quickly up the floor into a scoring position. Longer jump shots lead to longer rebounds, almost giving the Nuggets a head start in transition.

Other types of teams attack the rim more, and those teams are not as affected by Denver’s gameplan.  The Oklahoma City Thunder are a great example of this: they push themselves to own the prime real estate around the rim, typically through slice and dice drives and medium post-ups (by Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, respectively).  Shots at or near the rim are higher percentage finishes, and teams like OKC typically do a better job on the offensive glass because they are oriented more toward the rim.

While it seems likely Denver will have to contend with Oklahoma City in the first round of the playoffs, all hope is not lost for Nuggets fans.  The key for their hopes in pulling a first round upset should they face the Thunder is in getting them to take more jumpers, work to prevent driving lanes by solid, strong ball-pressure, and convert a high percentage of their takeaways while keeping OKC off the offensive glass.

Of course, should their opponent be Dallas in the first round, the Mavericks should be cautioned: shooting jumpshots against Denver’s defense is like adding oxygen to a fire – they can engulf whatever is in front of them very quickly, and not much is left after the fact.

With the 5th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft…

While there are still some undecided potential early entrants in this year’s NBA Draft one of the more interesting selections could come at around selection five. That’s when teams in need of point guard help look at their board and see Kyrie Irving already selected, but have a possible choice between UConn junior Kemba Walker and Kentucky freshman Brandon Knight. What do each bring, and how are their respective talents going to translate at the NBA level?

{AUTHOR_BOX}The first thing to recognize about both is that neither projects to be an immediate starter at the NBA level for a team that expects to win quickly. In fact, looking at these two players in terms of how they compare to even a John Wall is very unfair to them (and to Wall).

Walker - fresh off his National Championship win - is probably more ready to step in and perform to expectations right away, provided those expectations are of him as a "third down back" point guard—a guy who can come off the bench, provide a change of pace to a team’s traditional attack, and can even provide some leadership to his franchise’s second unit. Knight, on the other hand, seemed to get into a groove as the season wore on. During the tournament he developed a reputation as a big shot maker, and his body looks more NBA-ready than Walker’s. He probably has a steeper learning curve than Walker, but his ceiling might be higher, as he will be able to physically do better against longer NBA competition and he already has a very well-rounded scoring game.

For a team considering both players, the most important thing to do is assess your needs and long-term outlook. Will you be running a lot of ball screen action, where you are going to ask your point guard to make decisions coming off screens that involve not just himself, but his teammates? Will he need to be able to break down defenses and find drive and pitch alleys? If you need that handle guy who can score a bit and lead your team off the bounce, Kemba Walker is probably a good selection. Brandon Knight fits better with teams that have other players (forwards and guards) who can handle the ball and give him a chance to come off screens and display his very sweet stroke. You also want him to be able to learn how to play the lead guard position over time, and probably not throw him into the fire immediately – so you would want some stability present before making him your selection.

Because neither player projects to be an All-Star level talent (though Knight’s ceiling might be higher, the risk/reward is greater), teams looking into both guards would do best to figure out which player best fits their current situation and long-term plan – and if that one is not available, they should look to taking the best available player regardless of position. This might mean still taking the remaining guard – but it might also point them in the direction of Terrence Jones, Enes Kanter, or one of the international prospects. Drafting is never an exact science, and in a draft as weak (top-to-bottom) as this one, digging beyond the surface is required to truly make it a success.

Have questions for Coach Macri? Be sure and drop by HOOPSWORLD on Mondays at 2PM Eastern for the Coach’s weekly basketball chat!  You can also follow Coach Macri on Twitter @CoachMacri.