Could Rose Be Even More Valuable?
Derrick Rose is considered by many (players, coaches, fans, and media members alike) as the odds-on favorite to take home the 2010-2011 NBA MVP Award. His body of work this season has been simply spectacular. While Rose’s first two years in the league were certainly impressive, flaws existed in his still-maturing game. However, Rose has blossomed into an elite NBA superstar this season. He has always been blessed with incredible athleticism and implausible quickness, but one of the primary reasons D-Rose was able to make ‘the leap’ into the league’s upper echelon this season has been his improved accuracy from the perimeter, particularly three-point territory.
Nevertheless, an analytical examination of his shot selection indicates recently Rose may be relying too heavily on his newfound three-point prowess…
The biggest knock on Rose over his first two years in the NBA was his unreliable jumper. During his rookie and sophomore seasons in Chicago, Rose played a total of 170 games (including the playoffs) and attempted 142 three-pointers and connecting on just 34 of those attempts (23.9%). He averaged less than one three-point try per contest, and just 0.2 makes per game both years. As a result, defenses often slumped off, daring him to fire away from long-range, hoping he’d settle for jumpers, and guarding against his lightning-quick first step.
Well, after putting in a full offseason of focused practice, Rose began immediately showing off his new stroke and certainly reaping the rewards. He isn’t simply shooting more threes nowadays, he’s converting on a much higher percentage of his attempts. This season it took Rose only 33 games to attempt 142 three-pointers and he knocked down 56, or 39.4%, of those attempts. He leads the Bulls in three-point baskets. Already possessing a lethal offensive arsenal, Rose’s newest weapon has been deadly.
He shot 34.1% from behind-the-arc in November, and averaged more than one made three-pointer per game over a full month for the first time in his career. Then, through 16 games in December, Rose bumped that number all the way up to 43.8%, knocking down two triples a night (on 4.6 attempts).
Yet as effective as he has been this season, an argument could be made Rose’s dependence on long jumpers, in lieu of attacking the basket which typically results in lay-ups or successful trips to the charity stripe, is now impeding his progress. Scary as it sounds, Rose’s production could potentially be even more prolific.
{AUTHOR_BOX}As the season has progressed, Rose seemingly started settling for long-distance jumpers too often. Despite his accuracy abandoning him for stretches, and his efficiency decreasing, his attempts actually increased. In February, Rose jacked up 5.1 three-pointers a night, but made just 25%. In March, that number spiked even further. Rose launched a season-high 6.1 long-balls per game last month and converted less than 30%.
Despite vast improvements in his long-range game, there is no reason for Rose to shoot that many perimeter jumpers. He is doing opposing defenses an enormous favor by frequently settling and firing from 23 feet away.
Rose is most effective, and efficient, when he attacks the basket. Per hoopdata.com, Rose’s FG% at the rim this season is 58.8%. Unsurprisingly, the data confirms his accuracy at close range varies very little game-to-game or month-to-month.
In addition, although his improved three-point stroke has garnered the most praise Rose’s enhanced accuracy at the free-throw line this season is nearly as noteworthy. Rose’s career free-throw percentage coming in to 2010-2011 was hovering at around 77%. This year he is shooting 85.8% from the charity stripe, and he is only getting better. In the 24 games the Bulls have played since the All-Star Break he is knocking down over 89% of his freebies.
As difficult as it is for helpless defenders to keep Rose out of the paint, he should be living at the line (to his credit, his free-throw attempts have increased as well). When you combine his FG% at the rim and his efficiency at the free-throw line, it is clear that good things usually happen for Chicago when Rose attacks the tin. Of course he’ll sprinkle in a healthy helping of three-pointers to keep defenses honest, but over six attempts per contest is just too high a number.
D-Rose has played incredibly well this season; there is absolutely no denying that. Is it possible the future MVP could tweak his game to actually increase his value to Chicago? The stats seem to suggest that is the case.
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