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Irving May Not Be #1

In very unsurprising fashion, Duke freshmen point guard Kyrie Irving announced earlier this week that he will be forgoing the rest of his collegiate eligibility by hiring an agent and entering the 2011 NBA Draft. While some underclassmen are hesitant to join him because of the possibility of a lengthy lockout cutting the 2011-2012 season short, Irving’s decision was pretty easy to make.
   
Irving did miss 26 games this year due to a big right toe injury, but managed to return for the NCAA Tournament and prove there were no lingering effects. While certainly not at his best in the big dance, Irving confirmed what all scouts and general managers knew after watching him eight times at the beginning of the season: he’s legit.

Despite being far from in peak shape, Irving still showcased elite-level quickness and the ability to be an absolute terror in transition. He also got to the free throw line with great regularity and shot the ball very well from deep, knocking down 4-8 from beyond the arc.

Whether or not his return was the best thing for the Blue Devils is up in the air. There’s no denying they were a better team with him, but prior to the tournament they spent the last three months getting used to playing without him. Trying to integrate him back in so quickly, when they had played three times as many games without him than they did with him, could have been their undoing.

In the Sweet 16 against Arizona the Blue Devils simply looked out of sorts, only managing to score 77 points while being torched by Arizona, who finished with 93. Senior guard Nolan Smith in particular didn’t seem comfortable alongside Irving, which is understandable after he had become so accustomed to usually having the ball in his hands. However, Irving was spectacular as he finished with 28 points and three assists.

That’s what teams at the top of the draft care about the most. Trying to get Irving quickly reintegrated with his teammates was Duke head coach Mike Kryzyzewksi’s problem. What matters to NBA teams the most is that this 19-year-old freshman who torched some of the top upperclassmen point guards in Kalin Lucas, Jacob Pullen and Shelvin Mack earlier in the year is fully healthy and clearly ready to be a professional.

Currently Irving is widely projected to be the first player to hear his name called on draft night in June. Yet, it’s not as much of a guarantee as many would think.

Odds are that the top overall selection is going to go to either the Minnesota Timberwolves (17-62), Cleveland Cavaliers (17-61), Toronto Raptors (21-57), Sacramento Kings (23-55) or Washington Wizards (21-57). The New Jersey Nets (24-54) and Detroit Pistons (27-51) also have a slight chance to luck out and win the lottery.

Irving’s only real competition for the top spot is the guy who played a major role in ending his season: Arizona’s Derrick Williams. The sophomore forward was dominant from the moment the season began until the night it ended against the eventual national champion UConn Huskies. He put up 19 points and eight rebounds a night while shooting an absurd 59% from the field and 56% from long range.

He’s yet to officially declare for the draft, but it’s hard to imagine him deciding to stay at Arizona for his junior year. Duplicating the type of year he had would be difficult, let alone improving on it – it’s time from him to cash out and go pro.

Assuming he does choose to make the jump by the deadline, there are several teams that would strongly consider passing on Irving and taking him instead – specifically the Nets, Timberwolves and Wizards.

The Nets and Wizards are already well off at the point guard position with Deron Williams and John Wall respectively. Minnesota is also very high on who they have at the lead guard position and remain confident that Ricky Rubio, their fifth overall pick in the 2009 draft, will make his NBA debut with them next season. They also wouldn’t pass up on protecting themselves from potentially losing All-Star power forward Kevin Love by taking a future star at the forward spot like Williams.

Cleveland, Toronto, Sacramento and Detroit on the other hand would likely jump at the opportunity to add Irving. The Cavaliers do have former All-Star Baron Davis while the Raptors acquired promising young point guard Jerryd Bayless this year, but they don’t justify passing up on a prospect as good as Irving. There would be no debate for the Kings or Pistons, they need Irving badly and will likely be crossing their fingers and carrying all kinds of lucky charms on the night of the lottery hoping that they either win it or end up behind one of the teams mentioned above who would make Williams the top selection.

It’s fairly common for there to be some type of question as to who will be the number one pick and this year is no different. Williams and Irving are both deserving and we won’t have a better idea of who it’ll end up being until the lottery is completed. Even then, though, it’s impossible to rule out things changing leading up to the draft because they usually do.   

Splitting Up The Morris Twins

With the blessing of their head coach Bill Self, Marcus and Markieff Morris also declared for the NBA Draft this week and have hired an agent. After leading the team points, rebounds and blocks their stock had really climbed and it only made sense to make the jump now.

Come draft night they will both likely hear their names called in the first round. Marcus will probably be a lottery selection, while Markieff should go shortly after in the middle-to-late portion of round one. They’ve made it clear that they would like to stick together as they have a very, very close bond, but that just isn’t going to happen in the NBA.

{AUTHOR_BOX}Part of growing up and becoming professionals is accepting there are some things you just have no control over. When the Morris twins were coming out of high school they had a laundry list of schools that they could go to in order to stick together, but the NBA won’t present such an option for at least a couple of years when they become free agents.

On draft night they won’t be able to pick where they end up. Technically they could try to posture themselves to go where they desire by refusing to play for certain places, but that would be a foolish decision that their management team would likely never sign off on. They’ll almost certainly end up in different places and it actually could end up being better for the both of them.

At some point they were going to have to part ways and each become their own man. For nearly their entire lives they’ve been looked at as the Morris twins with one being right aside the other. Now they’ll be able to create their own separate identity and not be mentioned hand in hand.

Of course they’ll always be just one phone call away. However, we’ve known who the Morris twins are for quite some time. Next year we’ll learn just who Marcus and Markieff are individually.

Talking About Portsmouth

This week some of the nation’s top seniors are participating in the annual Portsmouth Invitational, an event that really doesn’t get enough coverage nationwide. Here at HOOPSWORLD Coach Mike Moreau has done a great job of breaking it down daily (recaps are available form day one and two), but overall this is something that should be looked at by a lot more eyes than it currently is.

The fact of the matter is only a couple of players, if any at all, at this camp are going to end up in the NBA. Last year nobody from the camp even got an invite to the combine in Chicago and traditionally it only produces a couple of late draft picks at the most.

However, in a time period where most players are jumping at the opportunity to leave school before completing their education, this event features those who decided to stay and do things the old fashion way. Sure, they may not have had agents knocking on their door and it’s easy to stay away when the interest isn’t pressing, but they could have easily found somewhere to play professionally and made far more money than they did by staying in school.

The players participating in Portsmouth are not just good basketball players, they’re great people who really helped out their respective universities. We may never hear from them in the NBA, but most of them will make a fine living playing professionally overseas and deserve some recognition for that and what they’ve accomplished over the last few years.

Yannis Koutroupis is a senior NCAA and NBA analyst for HOOPSWORLD. You can follow him on twitter here.