Fantasy: 2010’s Best Draft-Day Values
I assumed I’d be spending Monday evening writing about all-things ‘Melo after the supposed deal sending him to the Nets had been consummated. For instance, what would the Knicks Plan B be if Anthony ended up across the river in New Jersey (Answer: Donnie Walsh would be freed up to pursue required reinforcements – a starting center and a back-up PG). And of course we would have to examine the fantasy fallout; how it would effect the Nuggets, Pistons and Nets…
However, despite an abundance of smoke over the past few days, there was no fire, and Carmelo is still stuck in Denver. We’ll likely have to revisit that issue sooner or later, but let’s use this time to take a look backwards.
As the calendar flips to 2011, we now have over two solid months of NBA action in the books. Thus, we have a decent sample size with which to work. Let’s keep October’ prognostications in mind as we re-examine the first 10 weeks of the 2010-2011 season and try to determine which players provided the most bang for their draft-day buck. Later this week I’ll also discuss which stiffs have proven to be devastatingly disappointing…
First up, we’ll list the best draft-day values. These are guys that have all significantly out-performed their draft position. They were respected back in October, but nobody could have predicted these guys would put up the incredible numbers they have thus far. (Next to each player, I will list their current rank in nine-category roto leagues, according to basketballmonster.com)
Best Draft-Day Values:
Kevin Love – Minnesota Timberwolves (Current Rank: 6th overall):
Where to start… There are huge steps forward, and there are breakout seasons, and then there are there are the types of seasons Kevin Love owners are currently enjoying right now. From his historic and epic 30-point/ 30-rebound explosion against the Knicks to his unending double-double streak, Love has been an absolute revelation for those GM’s lucky enough to snag him back in October – when Love was projected as a 3rd or 4th round option. What if Coach Kurt Rambis hadn’t been toying with Kevin’s minutes early on, which dragged down his seasonal averages. In fact, if you date back to November 21st, which was the last time Love didn’t post a double-double (Yes, he is up to 24 straight point/rebound DD’s), Kevin’s numbers are even more astonishing. Over that stretch, Love is averaging 23.3 points, 16.8 rebounds, while shooting over 49% from the floor and 88% from the stripe. Oh, and please don’t forget the three-point proficiency. Over that 24-game stretch, Love is shooting a mind-boggling 48.8% from behind-the-arc. Yes, the league’s leading rebounder (by a wide margin), has hit more threes this season than noted long-range gunners such as Jamal Crawford, Jason Terry, Arron Afflalo, Steph Curry, Paul Pierce, J.J. Redick, Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith etc.
Manu Ginobili – San Antonio Spurs (Current Rank: 7th overall):
Prior to the start of every season, each of us is instructed not to let Manu Ginobili slip too far. Yet, all too often, there are younger, more enticing picks still on the board even after we get past the first few rounds. So, the unproven youngsters with "awesome upside and potential" regularly get selected before Ginobili. This season, Manu is really making GM’s pay for ageism-based blunders. He is averaging a career-high in minutes and is superbly stuffing the stat-sheet on a nightly basis. In addition to his usual assortment of points, assists, and rebounds Manu is also second in the NBA in three-point makes and fourth in steals.
Raymond Felton – New York Knicks (Current Rank: 18th overall):
Over the summer, there was a lot of talk in NYC about trying to figure out a way to find a stud PG, such as CP3, to team up with the Knicks new $100 million power forward, Amar’e Stoudemire. After Paul stated he was content in New Orleans, many members of the NY media began suggested the Knicks should target Steve Nash. Yet, all along, it appears Donnie Walsh had already nabbed his man… With all the top-tier names that became free-agents and changed uniforms this summer, Ray Felton seemed to get lost in the shuffle. Coming off a disappointing season under Larry Brown in Charlotte, Felton was an afterthought in July’s free-agency frenzy. However, Felton has been an absolute steal for Walsh and the Knicks, as well as any fantasy owner that selected him on draft day. For instance, there are only three players in the NBA right now averaging at least 18 points and over 8 assists per game. Those three players are Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, and Raymond Felton. Now, the addendum: Felton is averaging more three’s, more steals, and shooting a higher percentage from the free-throw line than both Williams and Rose…
Rudy Gay – Memphis Grizzlies (Current Rank: 4th overall):
For some reason, despite posting astonishing numbers all season long, Rudy hasn’t generated as much hype or national buzz as the other players listed above. But make no mistake; Gay’s stats are jaw-dropping. Talk about a career-year, he is averaging personal bests in points (21.2 ppg), assists (2.8), steals (1.9), blocks (1.2), FG% (48.6), 3PT% (42.7), and FT% (83.4). In fact, Gay is the only player in the NBA averaging at least 1.2 blocks, steals, and threes
Honorable Mentions: Paul Millsap, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Martin, LaMarcus Aldridge, Ray Allen, Lamar Odom
{AUTHOR_BOX}Next up are the Top Late-Round Fliers/ Waiver-Wire Pickups. Depending on the size of your league, these gems were unearthed either very late in the draft or snatched off the waiver-wire after the season had already started.
Dorell Wright – Golden State Warriors (Current Rank: 26th overall):
Mr. Wright has been just that for everybody that is smart enough/ lucky enough to have Dorell on their roster right now. Wright, a former role player and bench warmer in Miami, has exploded on the fantasy scene in Golden State. He has been among the league leaders in minutes played all season long, and he has certainly made the most of his newfound opportunity. Especially of late, as Wright has been one of the league’s most productive players over the past couple of weeks. Over the Warriors last seven contests, Dorell is averaging 22.3 PPG, 5 boards, 3.7 three’s, and 1.4 steals. Not bad for a guy that was floating around many a waiver-wire back in early November.
Wilson Chandler – New York Knicks (Current Rank: 18th overall):
Amar’e and the aforementioned Felton get the lion’s share of the credit for the Knickerbockers remarkable resurgence, but Chandler has an essential ingredient in New York’s winning ways. Chandler has emerged as on of D’Antoni’s most versatile weapons. Since being named a starter right after Thanksgiving, Chandler has been a beast. In 21 starts this year, Ill Will is averaging 19.7 points, 6.9 boards, 2.3 three-balls, 1.4 blocks and 0.9 steals; while shooting 51% from the field and 40.3% from distance. Chandler is also the only player averaging at least 1.5 blocks and 1.5 threes this season.
Wesley Matthews – Portland Trail Blazers (Current Rank: 64th overall):
Although not quite as productive as Chandler, Wes Matthews has also been putting up big numbers since being inserted into his team’s starting lineup. When the Blazers signed Matthews as a free agent over the summer, the move left many in Portland scratching their head. Why invest major money in a shooting guard/forward, when Portland already had Brandon Roy, the face of their franchise, and Nicolas Batum on the roster? Well, with Roy’s career now in jeopardy, the Matthews signing looks like a brilliant move. Filling in for B Roy, Wes has started 25 games for the Blazers this season; in those contests, he is averaging 18.9 ppg, 2.2 three-pointers, and 1.5 steals.
Landry Fields – New York Knicks (Current Rank: 53rd overall):
Yet another Knick on our list – just goes to show how fantasy-friendly Mike D’Antoni’s offense can be when it’s firing on all cylinders. Fields came out of absolutely nowhere to become a fantasy factor this season. He is at or near the top of the rookie leader board in a vast majority of statistical categories. And, among NBA guards (not just rookies, but all guards) none average more rebounds than Fields (7.4 rebounds per game). Don’t feel bad if you passed on Landry on draft day, 29 NBA GM’s passed on Fields in last June’s NBA draft as well…
Honorable Mention: Arron Afflalo, Elton Brand, DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka, Kris Humphries, Kyle Lowry, Hedo Turkoglu, Shane Battier, Beno Udrih, Jose Calderon
Who did I miss? Which players have been blessings for your fantasy squad this season – and which players have left you feeling cursed?
As always, feel free to tweet at me (@TommyBeer)


