HOOPSWORLD | Basketball News & NBA Rumors

As we eagerly await word about the future of the 2011-12 NBA season, it would behoove fantasy basketball devotees to start thinking about their game now.  An optimistic view now can pay off later.

Wise decisions made on draft day usually carry fantasy owners through to the bitter end of a long 82-game season.  Of course, injuries, waiver wire pick-ups and trades are just a few of the many unexpected things that can impact the game, but drafting a well-balanced team is key to starting your season in the right direction.

Beyond the usual suspects we all want to draft (you know, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Dwyane Wade, etc.), the reality is that the rounds go by quickly, and choices regarding players available on the board are critical.

Taking risks can pay off.  It can spell disaster, too.

There are certain sophomore players that seem to have “fantasy breakout season” written all over them.  Draft the proven stars, for sure, but keep these players near the front of your mind on that all-important day.

We put together a list of players with just-completed rookie seasons who appear primed to breakout – speaking fantasy here – this year.  We also included their stat line from last season.

John Wall – Washington Wizards

Nobody can dispute Wall had a terrific rookie season.  The 2010 number-one draft pick may have even won the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award had Blake Griffin not been in the picture.  Wall’s numbers should improve this season; in fact, a 20/10 average is not out of the realm of possibility.

His 8.3 average assists was good for a seventh-place ranking in the league.  Behind him?  Derrick Rose (7.7), Jason Kidd (8.2) and Russell Westbrook (8.2).  Wall joined All-Stars Deron Williams and Westbrook as the only three players who averaged over 16 points and eight assists last year.  Don’t forget he rebounds and steals – and unfortunately turns the ball over – as well.

The good news for fantasy owners is that Wall expressed disappointment in his performance, and he’s determined to earn respect among his peers and critics.  Injuries, followed by confidence issues, plagued him a large part of the season, but he’s learned the value taking better care of his body.  If he focuses on improving his jump shot, he could climb into the fantasy elite.

Evan Turner – Philadelphia 76ers

Suffice to say, Turner didn’t quite live up to his second-overall-pick status in last years’ draft.  By his own admission, he’s a slow starter.  As the glare of expectations subsided, he did show spurts of the solid player he should become in time.  Perhaps sooner rather than later.

Turner played less minutes in the playoffs vs. the Miami HEAT than in the regular season, and posted these numbers:

What’s impressive is that he was guarded by Dwyane Wade and LeBron James much of the time in those five games.

The issue facing fantasy owners with regard to Turner involves the disposition of Andre Iguodala.  The two have basically the same game; however, should Iguodala be traded (as was rumored last year), Turner should greatly benefit.  He played significantly more minutes last year when Iguodala was out with injury.

Over the summer, Turner worked on perfecting his shooting motion with Herb “Shot Doctor”  Magee.  The 2010 Naismith Men’s College Player of the Year is driven and eager to prove the doubters wrong.

DeMarcus Cousins – Sacramento Kings

Talk about flying under the radar last season.  Cousins had a pretty remarkable stats showing, but since he’s on the roster of a fairly low-profile team, little attention was directed his way.

Averaging 14.1 points and 8.6 rebounds (team-high) in just 28.5 minutes presents the promise of greater things next season.  The probable loss of Samuel Dalembert should result in higher rebounds, perhaps a double-digit average.  New King J.J. Hickson will grab his fair share, but Cousins will get more.

His ability to contribute in other areas is especially useful to fantasy owners; however, be cognizant of the less-than-great free-throw percentage and problematic turnovers.

Jordan Crawford – Washington Wizards

Crawford’s scoring, assists, steals and rebounds increased nicely after Atlanta traded him to Washington; in fact, he put up double-digit scoring figures in 17 straight games.  A Nick Young injury resulted in his playing time more than tripling.

His shooting percentages, specifically long-distance attempts, were dismal – an area that must improve – but check his free-throw shooting: .855 in March and .957 in April (69-of-78).

Young, a restricted free agent, is Crawford’s competition at the shooting guard position.  Should a healthy Young remain with the Wizards, he’ll get the starting nod.  Even so, Crawford showed what he can do with good playing time which, depending on Young’s performance, may lead to a lineup change.

Greg Monroe – Detroit Pistons

Monroe is primed to become a fantasy beast this season.

He was one of Detroit’s brightest stars during a decidedly strange year.  After a slow start, Monroe’s numbers kept progressing steadily across the board.  Prior to the All-Star break, he averaged 7.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg, .564 in free-throw percentage and .529 in field-goal shooting.  After the break, he averaged 13.7 ppg, 10.0 rpg, .710 FT% and .580 FG%.  By seasons’ end, he had posted 21 double-doubles.

With Monroe firmly part of a youth movement under the direction of new coach Lawrence Frank, there’s every reason to think Monroe will keep improving not only in scoring and rebounding, but in other categories, too.

HONORABLE MENTIONS:

 Wesley Johnson – Minnesota Timberwolves

Johnson makes this list on stat-filling potential alone.  With Derrick Williams now on-board, Johnson’s future as a shooting guard appears sealed.  He averaged 1.3 three-pointers last season and is unafraid of the big shot.

Ed Davis – Toronto Raptors

In the last 22 games of the season, Davis averaged 30.35 minutes logging 10.0 mpg, 8.1 rpg at .553 FG%.  His starters’ numbers are even better (10.5 ppg/8.2 rpg in 17 games).  Despite uncertainties regarding the future of Andrea Bargnani in Toronto, and his competition with Amir Johnson, Davis should see a bigger role this season.  Free-throw shooting must improve.

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Which sophomores do you think will have a breakout year in fantasy basketball?  Tell us in the comments section below.