Fantasy Focus: Tim Duncan
For all the grief Tim Duncan receives about his age, injuries, missing games, etc., it’s not all deserved. Sure, there’s no getting around the fact Duncan is 35 years old and has suffered injuries in his career. However, Duncan has every right to take issue with attacks leveled against him regarding unreliability in games played.
A quick look at Duncan’s past six seasons reveals he has appeared in 467 games out of a possible total of 492 games. This computes to an impressive 95% clip. Compare that percentage to fantasy stalwarts such as Chris Paul (87%), Dwyane Wade (83%), Amar’e Stoudemire (77%) and Pau Gasol (88%) over the same six seasons, and Duncan suddenly seems among the most reliable players for fantasy owners taking notes.
That’s not to say Duncan’s fantasy stock is stable; in fact, his numbers have been making gradual backward strides for some time. Indeed, it’s impossible to miss how certain numbers sharply declined last season.
Decreasing playing time is one reason for the fall. It’s really the most important reason to fantasy owners.
During the 2005-06 regular season, Duncan averaged 34.8 minutes; last season, he dropped to 28.4 mpg. Naturally, with decreasing playing time, some of Duncan’s key fantasy stats have decreased.
In the past few seasons, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich has elected to “save” Duncan’s minutes for the postseason. It does make sense. Once the team becomes playoff-bound, Pop sees value in removing the risk of injury and maximizing fresh legs, so Duncan’s minutes drop…just when fantasy players are gearing up for their own league’s playoffs.
The strategy appears to be working as Duncan’s playing time has remained relatively steady in each of the past six playoff runs. In the 2005-06 playoffs, he averaged 37.9 minutes on court, and he logged 35.3 minutes in their run last season.
However, regular season numbers are what it’s all about to fantasy owners.
And last season, Duncan posted the lowest scoring and rebounding figures of his career….by far.
Take a look at the past six years’ stats:
|
Year |
Team |
G |
GS |
MPG |
FG% |
3P% |
FT% |
OFF |
DEF |
RPG |
APG |
SPG |
BPG |
TO |
PF |
PPG |
|
05-06 |
SAS |
80 |
80 |
34.8 |
0.484 |
0.400 |
0.629 |
2.9 |
8.1 |
11.0 |
3.2 |
0.9 |
2.0 |
2.48 |
2.74 |
18.6 |
|
06-07 |
SAS |
80 |
80 |
34.1 |
0.546 |
0.111 |
0.637 |
2.7 |
7.9 |
10.6 |
3.4 |
0.8 |
2.4 |
2.80 |
2.54 |
20.0 |
|
07-08 |
SAS |
78 |
78 |
34.0 |
0.497 |
0.000 |
0.730 |
3.0 |
8.3 |
11.3 |
2.8 |
0.7 |
2.0 |
2.28 |
2.37 |
19.3 |
|
08-09 |
SAS |
75 |
75 |
33.7 |
0.504 |
0.000 |
0.692 |
2.7 |
8.0 |
10.7 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
1.7 |
2.20 |
2.31 |
19.3 |
|
09-10 |
SAS |
78 |
77 |
31.3 |
0.518 |
0.182 |
0.725 |
2.8 |
7.3 |
10.1 |
3.2 |
0.6 |
1.5 |
1.79 |
1.95 |
17.9 |
|
10-11 |
SAS |
76 |
76 |
28.4 |
0.500 |
0.000 |
0.716 |
2.2 |
6.7 |
8.9 |
2.7 |
0.7 |
1.9 |
1.61 |
1.57 |
13.4 |
The league-high points per game for players having eligibility in the forward-center position per Yahoo! Sports’ fantasy formats last season was 25.3 (Amar’e Stoudemire); in rebounding, it was 15.2 (Kevin Love). Duncan ranked 16th in scoring and eighth in rebounding in the F-C position. His Player Efficiency Rating (21.9) and Win Shares (7.7) were career-lows.
Again in the F-C position, he ranked seventh in points (17.9) and tenth in boards (10.1) in 2009-10. In 2008-09, he ranked sixth in points (19.3) and fourth in boards (10.7). In 2007-08, he ranked fifth in points (19.3) and first in rebounds (11.3). The trend reveals itself.
Even fantasy legends such as four-time NBA champion Duncan – arguably the best power forward this game has ever seen – start slipping eventually.
Last season was the first time in his 14-year career that he didn’t average a double-double, though he came close (13.4 ppg/8.9 rpg). He still led his team in rebounding.
So while Duncan is not a 20/10 player anymore (career: 20.6 ppg/11.4 rpg), he does remain an above-average power forward/center option in most fantasy formats because he’s finding ways to stay relevant and even improve in other areas.
He logged 1.9 blocks per game, which was tied for third with Al Jefferson and Stoudemire (and league-ranked seventh in total blocks). Plus he turned out a career-low turnover rate (1.6). It also computed to career-low turnovers in Per 36 Minutes stats (2.0). Again, we’re still talking among those eligible in the F-C position.
What can we expect looking toward the 2011-12 season (keeping the faith here) for Duncan? Despite speculation a continued lockout may hasten his retirement, don’t believe it until you hear confirmation. A shortened season should equate to a refreshed, perhaps revitalized, Duncan. Plus he doesn’t have much in the way of competition for the position.
If the Spurs march toward an easy postseason berth like last season (wherein they nabbed a first-place ranking in the Western Conference with a 61-21 record), expect to see less of Duncan later in the year. If they struggle, the 13-time All-Star may contribute more.
Fantasy owners should consider a sell-high option for Duncan, but just at the precise moment. Keep a watchful eye. Your opponents may not fully realize how Popovich plays him close to 30 minutes for well over half the season, then starts pulling back his playing time following the All-Star break. Even back-to-back appearances dwindle.
The Big Fundamental is not the fantasy beast he once was, nor is he a first or second-round draft choice, but he definitely still presents clear value to owners.
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