HOOPSWORLD | Basketball News & NBA Rumors

The general consensus regarding the 2011 NBA draft was it was arguably the weakest in a decade. In previewing the potential impact the new crop of incoming rookies next season, it is difficult to dispute that notion. There simply are not as many automatic starters and immediate stars as we are accustomed to seeing.  Even the draft’s most prized prospects will enter situations where they’ll have to earnestly compete for minutes. In addition, this year’s rookie class will be deprived of the Las Vegas Summer League (a casualty of the looming lockout), and maybe even lose a healthy chunk of training camp, depending on how long the labor strife lasts. Summer league action and training camps are often crucial in preparing rookies for the rigors of the NBA season.

Nonetheless, history teaches us a few of these youngsters will carve out significant playing time and a definitive impact for fantasy owners drafting them.

Thus, let’s examine the cream of this year’s rookie crop – and keep our fingers crossed, hoping we get to see them suit up sooner rather than later…

* Kyrie Irving – Cleveland Cavaliers:
Irving is legit. The kid is a pure point guard who can also create his own offense. Albeit a small sample size, his brief career at Duke offered promising production. Most impressive was his efficiency – Kyrie shot 52.9% from the floor, over 90% from the free-throw stripe, and over 46% from three-point land. My concern with Irving isn’t his skill level; it’s whether or not he’ll get an opportunity to play 30+ minutes a night. As we know, minutes are essential to fantasy success, no matter how prodigious the talent.

The issue in Cleveland is the Cavs already have two starting-caliber point guards on the roster – Baron Davis and Ramon Sessions – as well as Daniel Gibson, who is owed over $4 million next season and was second on the team in total points scored last season. Baron is one of the leagues better all-around guards, when healthy and motivated. Sessions has shown he can put up huge numbers when given time. (Last February, Sessions started 11 games and averaged 19.9 points, 8.8 assists, and 4.3 rebounds.) Conventional wisdom would suggest the Cavs will attempt to trade either Baron or Sessions prior to the start of next season (Sessions is more likely to be moved due to his less onerous contract). However, as the situation stands, it’s tough to pencil Irving in for a ton of minutes knowing both those guys are still in the mix. Yet one possible resolution would be sporadically playing a two-guard lineup, with Davis sliding over to shooting guard. The Cavs currently don’t have a true starting SG on their roster, so there will be minutes available there.

As it stands, it is tough to be too high on Irving immediate success out of the gates, but if things break right for him – has certainly has the ability to be an impact fantasy player right away.

Derrick Williams – Minnesota Timberwolves:
Williams, much like Irving, is blessed with a terrific skill set and a fantasy-friendly game, yet will have a difficult time cracking the starting lineup early on in his NBA career. The Wolves two most productive players, Kevin Love and Michael Beasley, are entrenched at the starting power forward and small forward, respectively. In addition, Wesley Johnson, who was taken 4th overall by the Wolves last year, plays on the wing as well.

When he does see the floor, expect Williams do damage with the ball in his hands. He has a terrifically versatile offensive repertoire. He can score inside and out, in the paint or behind the arc. In fact, arguably the most impressive statistic he posted last season at Arizona was his accuracy from three-point territory. He attempted 74 three-pointers and converted 42 of them (56.8%). And because Williams’ game translates well to the NBA, he’s primed to contribute in Minnesota. The only question is how soon will he get that chance. I think it’s safe to expect 20 or so minutes a night backing up both Love and The Bease. If Williams plays 20+ mpg, he should be able to score in double figures (maybe 11 ppg) and chip in a handful of rebounds. However, he didn’t record many steals or blocks as a collegian, so we probably shouldn’t expect that to change in the pros.

Jimmer Fredette – Sacramento Kings:
Few players generate the excitement and fan following that Jimmer has before setting foot on an NBA court. Make no mistake, Jimmer-mania has already taken hold in Sac-Town. However, fans might need to temper expectations a bit, as the Kings have a crowed backcourt. As has been the theme this far, Jimmer’s will have a difficult time finding enough playing time to satisfy fans and fantasy owners alike.

Although Sacramento shipped out Beno Udrih in a draft day deal, former Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans has averaged over 37 minutes a night over his first two NBA season. Marcus Thornton was the team’s starting shooting guard for much of last season, but he’ll be a restricted free agent this summer, so it will be interesting to see if the Kings bring him back. The assumption is they will, but if not, Jimmer’s stock would spike. The Kings also have Francisco Garcia and the recently re-acquired John Salmons on the roster as well. Still, with the organization desperate to sell tickets and create buzz, they may not want to risk tampering this newfound enthusiasm, which means Jimmer could see plenty of PT.

Brandon Knight – Detroit Pistons:
In the weeks and months leading up to the draft, Knight was projected to go as high as #3 overall to Utah, so it was a bit of surprise to see him slide to #8 last Thursday. However, the Pistons happily snatched up, and Knight will begin his NBA career in MoTown.

Rodney Stuckey had long been viewed as the “Point Guard of the Future” for the Pistons, but hasn’t quite capitalized on the opportunity. In what was hoped would be a breakout season, Rodney saw his scoring average and mpg decrease in 2010-2011. And Stuckey frequently found himself playing off the ball, with either Will Bynum or Tracey McGrady handling the PG duties. Knight may have an legit opportunity to win the starting PG spot, with Stuckey starting at the “2.” If Knight starts, he would see 25+ minutes per game, with Bynum backing him up. If Knight does in fact earn the starting gig, he could end up being one of the more productive fantasy producers from his rookie class. Certainly a situation to keep an eye on when training camp starts up – whenever that is…

Kemba Walker – Charlotte Bobcats:
Admittedly I am not a big Walker fan, as I find the success rate of undersized guards in the NBA disconcerting. Nonetheless, the Cats nabbed him with the 9th overall pick. Can Kemba transition to PG in the League? Will he have to play primarily off the ball?  We shall see…

In Charlotte, Kemba will be competing for minutes mainly with D.J. Augustin and Gerald Henderson. Walker’s offensive versatility will likely work in his favor, as the Bobcats may end up slotting him next to either player, depending on a variety of factors – such as match-ups or foul trouble etc. As far as fantasy output, Walker’s main contribution will be scoring output. It remains to be seen whether he’ll able to accrue assists on the NBA level – learning how to run the point in the pros is never an easy assignment. Nonetheless, it should be noted Kemba did average over five boards and nearly two steals last season at UCONN.

Klay Thompson – Golden State Warriors:
In years past, getting drafted by the run-and-gun Warriors meant immediately becoming a fantasy favorite – especially if that player had the offensive expertise of Klay Thompson. However, Klay has a few things working against him this season in Golden State. For starters, he won’t start. The Warriors have two all-star caliber guards in Steph Curry and Monta Ellis. In addition, after years of “Nellie Ball” (which continued relatively unimpeded even after Keith Smart replaced Don Nelson), Mark Jackson was recently hired as the Warriors new head coach. Jackson has always claimed he will harp defense whenever he landed a head coaching job. As a result, we could see a dramatic slowdown in Golden State’s offensive approach.

{AUTHOR_BOX}However, rumors have run rampant Monta Ellis is on the block. If Monta ever was traded that would open up a clear path for Thompson to see major minutes, which would make him an immediate impact player, especially suiting up alongside Steph Curry. Lots of variables here, but certainly plenty of upside for Thompson, which makes him well worth a late-round flier in future fantasy drafts.

Alec Burks – Utah Jazz:
While he may not have the hype or pedigree of some others listed above, Burks was a legit scorer during his college career at Colorado. As a 19-year-old sophomore last season for the Buffs, Burks averaged 20.5 ppg, 6.5 boards, and 3 assists; while shooting 47% from the floor (he shot 53.7% as a freshman), and 82.5% from the charity stripe.

And unlike many other rookies, Burks may have the opportunity to win a starting gig. Raja Bell and C.J. Miles (outstanding team option) will be his main competition for minutes at SG. He may also find some time at small forward, where Gordon Haywood will likely enter training camp as the nominal starter. There is a possibility to carve out a niche in Salt Lake, we’ll see if Burks can capitalize. He’s another guy I may be targeting as a potential late-round value pick.

Sleepers:

Marshon Brooks – New Jersey Nets:
The Nets, stuck at #27 Thursday night, have to be happy to land Brooks (via a trade with the Celtics), who many had projected as a top-15 selection.  New Jersey desperately needed to add some scoring punch, as their offense was anemic at times last season. In Brooks, they get a kid that can light up a scoreboard, as evidenced by the 52 points he hung on Notre Dame last season.

After a relatively quite first few years at Providence, Brooks burst onto the national scene as a senior last season. He’s a great scorer and a lengthy defender, and plenty of NBA GMs were enticed by his talent. In addition to his offensive exploits, Brooks is also a terrific rebounder for a guard, pulling down nearly 8 boards a game last season. Check out this tidbit, via ESPN Stats and Info: Brooks put up 24.6 points and 7.7 grabbed rebounds per game last year, becoming the only Division 1 player to average 24+ points and 7+ boards.

In New Jersey, the Nets are thin at shooting guard. Anthony Morrow was the starter last season, but may be best suited as a sixth man. Coach Avery Johnson also doesn’t have many other options on the wing, so Brooks could see significant minutes right out of the gates. Much will depend on ho Brooks performs in he preseason, but this is definitely a situation to keep an eye on.

Nikola Vucevic – Philadelphia 76ers:
The Sixers selected Vucevic with the #16 pick, as adding some size was atop their wish list heading into the draft. In Vucevic, they got one of the tallest players in the draft. But the big man out of USC is not just a lumbering space eater. Nikola has a refined offensive game, averaging over 17 points in Pac-10 play last season. Although he also averaged 10 rebounds per game at USC, Vucevic isn’t much a post-presence on the block. He prefers to float around the perimeter – he attempted 2.5 three-point attempts last season (and connected on 35% of those attempts). Anytime a player a player possesses center-eligibility and three-point ability, that draws plenty of attention in fantasy circles.

Spencer Hawes started 81 games at center for Philly last season. He’ll become a restricted free agent this off-season. (Tony Battie and Darius Songalia, who backed up Hawes, are both unrestricted free agents). Assuming Hawes returns to Philadelphia (probably the most likely scenario), Vucevic will be relegated to a max of 15-20 minutes a night. If Hawes signs an offer sheet elsewhere and the Sixers don’t match, then Vucevic’s value would be certainly surge.

Norris Cole – Miami HEAT:
The HEAT have had a hole at PG since the Big 3 joined forces last summer. Mike Bibby was a bust after signing in February. Mario Chalmers has had some up-and-downs in Miami, but ended the season on a high note, playing well in the NBA Finals. Chalmers is poised to hit the open market as a restricted free this offseason. Pat Riley and the HEAT have claimed they intend to bring Mario back to Miami, but they also traded up in the first round to draft Norris Cole last week – so we’ll have to wait and see how the situation plays out.

Cole was viewed as one of the most NBA-ready guards in the draft, after spending four seasons at Cleveland State. Playing under the national radar, he put up phenomenal stats in college – averaging 21.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.2 steals and 1.4 three’s. Those are obviously fantasy friendly numbers. Keep the name “Norris Cole” highlighted on your cheat sheet for next season’s draft (let’s hope those draft’s take place in October!)   

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