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Fantasy: Updated Top 100 Overall Rankings
Posted By Tommy Beer On February 8, 2011 @ 4:00 pm In All,Fantasy,NBA | No Comments
The NBA’s trade deadline falls on February 24th this year. In many fantasy leagues throughout the land, the deadline to make trades is inching ever closer as well and the playoffs (in head-to-head formats) will follow shortly thereafter. Thus, it is certainly time to roll out an updated Top-100 Overall Ranking.
With these updated lists I approach the rankings as if I was heading into a draft today and each drafted player would start accruing stats from this day forward. I attempt to factor in prior performance, projected future production, and even try to take into account the possibility/probability of injuries as well – which is always tricky. Beneath the rankings, I have included a running commentary to help explain the thinking behind many of these selections. (For updated fantasy info throughout the season, and/or to have a fantasy question answered – be sure to follow Tommy Beer on Twitter (@TommyBeer)
It is especially important to note that, as always, these rankings are based on a nine-category rotisserie league format – the nine categories being: points, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks, three-pointers made, turnovers, FG%, and FT%.
Without further ado:
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1
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Kevin Durant
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51
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Jason Kidd
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2
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Chris Paul
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52
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Brook Lopez
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3
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LeBron James
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53
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Andrea Bargnani
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4
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Kevin Love
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54
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Stephen Jackson
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5
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Amar’e Stoudemire
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55
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Tony Parker
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6
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Dirk Nowitzki
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56
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Wilson Chandler
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7
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Pau Gasol
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57
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Blake Griffin
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8
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Stephen Curry
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58
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Joakim Noah
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9
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Derrick Rose
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59
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Tyson Chandler
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10
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Deron Williams
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60
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Andrew Bogut
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11
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Al Horford
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61
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Andrei Kirilenko
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12
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LaMarcus Aldridge
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62
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Wesley Matthews
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13
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Russell Westbrook
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63
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D.J. Augustin
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14
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Josh Smith
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64
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Luis Scola
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15
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Danny Granger
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65
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Arron Afflalo
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16
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Kobe Bryant
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66
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Nicolas Batum
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17
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Dwyane Wade
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67
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Channing Frye
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18
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Manu Ginobili
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68
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Serge Ibaka
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19
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Rudy Gay
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69
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Jose Calderon
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20
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Monta Ellis
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70
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Rashard Lewis
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21
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Paul Pierce
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71
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Luol Deng
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22
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Andre Iguodala
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72
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Jeff Green
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23
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Steve Nash
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73
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Baron Davis
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24
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Rajon Rondo
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74
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Jrue Holliday
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25
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Raymond Felton
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75
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Amir Johnson
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26
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Tyreke Evans
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76
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Marcus Camby
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27
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Al Jefferson
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77
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Beno Udrih
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28
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Kevin Garnett
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78
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Andrew Bynum
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29
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Carmelo Anthony
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79
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Landry Fields
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30
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Nene
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80
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Darren Collison
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31
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Kevin Martin
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81
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Devin Harris
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32
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Paul Millsap
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82
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Mike Conley
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33
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Dwight Howard
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83
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Antawn Jamison
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34
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Dorell Wright
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84
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Jason Terry
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35
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Chauncey Billups
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85
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Andre Miller
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36
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Ray Allen
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86
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John Wall
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37
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David West
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87
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Shane Battier
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38
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David Lee
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88
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JaVale McGee
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39
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Joe Johnson
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89
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Vince Carter
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40
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Elton Brand
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90
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Andray Blatche
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41
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Marc Gasol
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91
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Boris Diaw
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42
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Eric Gordon
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92
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Mike Dunleavy
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43
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Gerald Wallace
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93
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Michael Beasley
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44
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Tim Duncan
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94
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Jamal Crawford
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45
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Zach Randolph
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95
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Chuck Hayes
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46
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Danilo Gallinari
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96
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Luke Ridnour
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47
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Lamar Odom
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97
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Nick Young
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48
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Chris Bosh
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98
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Ryan Anderson
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49
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Jason Richardson
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99
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Marcin Gortat
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50
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Carlos Boozer
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100
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Andris Biedrins
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Just Missed the Cut: Kyle Lowry, Trevor Ariza, Rodney Stuckey, Roy Hibbert, Hedo Turkoglu, Brandon Jennings, Emeka Okafor, Grant Hill, Richard Jefferson, Thaddeus Young, Ersan Ilyasova, Greg Monroe, J.R. Smith, DeMar DeRozan, Ty Lawson, Samuel Dalembert, Ramon Sessions, Jameer Nelson, Chris Kaman
The players who have seen the biggest drop in the rankings: Brandon Roy, Troy Murphy, Mo Williams, Anthony Randolph, Aaron Brooks, Caron Butler, O.J. Mayo, Gilbert Arenas, Marcus Thornton, John Salmons
* Chris Paul, despite a slight statistical step-back from seasons past, is the #1 overall fantasy producer this year (per the tremendously useful basketballmonster.com), however, I have him ranked at #2 because he seems slowed at times at that surgically repair knee. If you told me he’d be 100% all season long, I’d take CP3 first. But, if I had a draft today, I’d go the safer route and select Durant.
* Kevin Durant, who stumbled out of the gates a bit to start the season, has basically been a beast since December. Not only has KD been scoring at an incredible clip – he has also been insanely efficient – as this tidbit from the Elias Sports Bureau points out: "Kevin Durant made 14 of 19 field-goal attempts (including five three-pointers) and 10 of 11 free throws to accumulate 43 points as the Thunder beat the Hornets (last Wednesday). Durant was the second NBA player this season to score as many as 43 points in a game in which he took fewer than 20 shots from the floor. Kevin Martin had only 18 field-goal attempts in his 45-point game on January 5. The only other player in SuperSonics/Thunder franchise history to score at least 43 points in a game in which he took fewer than 20 shots from the floor was Rashard Lewis on Jan. 11, 2006 (45 points and 18 FGA)."
* Back in October, we all wondered how ‘taking his talents to South Beach’ would effect LeBron James’ fantasy game. Well, his scoring is down (not surprising), and his assists are down a bit (which is surprising), while his rebounds have stay relatively the same. His shooting percentages have also dipped slightly, as have his steals and block totals – and his turnovers have increased due to the increased ball-handling responsibilities he assumes. All things considered, LeBron isn’t as prolific a fantasy performer sharing the spotlight and basketball with D Wade in Miami. Nonetheless, LBJ is still a statistical stud, which underscores just how incredible his numbers were while in Cleveland…
* For those wondering just how special and unique Kevin Love’s skill set is – please read this great post from the New York Times: Off The Dribble Blog: "Dennis Rodman is considered by some to be the greatest rebounder in N.B.A. history. Rodman’s career rebound percentage, which is an estimate of the percentage of all available rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor, is 23.4 percent, the league record. One of Rodman’s teammates, Steve Kerr, was one of the best 3-point shooters in the game. Kerr, who was a member of five championship teams with the Chicago Bulls and the San Antonio Spurs, ended his career with a 3-point field percentage of 45.4 percent. So, what do you get when you combine the rebounding ability of Rodman with the long-range accuracy of Kerr? Kevin Love. Through Wednesday, Love was leading the league with a rebound percentage of 23.3 percent. That figure, if it holds, would be the 12th-highest rebound percentage in N.B.A. history. Coupled with that, Love is hitting 43.9 percent of his 3-point field goal attempts, is tied with two other players for 9th best percentage in the league. Love’s stellar 3-point percentage is not simply a case of his occasionally taking a wide-open shot. He is averaging one 3-point attempt per 11.9 minutes of playing time, not far off Kerr’s career rate of one every 10.1 minutes. In fact, only one player has led the N.B.A. in rebound percentage while also shooting at least 100 3-pointers: Rodman, in 1991-92. Rodman, though, was not an effective shooter from downtown, converting 31.7 percent of his attempts that season."
* Pau Gasol has slowed down markedly from his insanely hot start to the season; however, his all-around numbers are still phenomenal. Pau’s versatility (he averages 3.5 assist from the center spot, and nearly 2 blocks) and efficiently – he shoots 52.5% from the floor and 82.3% from the free-throw line – are reasons he is such a valued commodity.
{AUTHOR_BOX}* Early on this season, Dirk Nowitzki raced out near the front of the NBA MVP pack – the Mavs possessed one of the NBA’s top records, and Dirk was both dominant and incredibly efficient. Over Dallas’ first 25 games this season Dirk averaged 25 points per game while shooting a sparkling 56.2% from the floor. However, Dirk injured his knee in late December. The Mavs went onto lose seven of the nine games Dirk missed nursing the injury and when he finally returned, he was clearly rusty. In fact, he has recently admitted he may have rushed back a bit too quickly. In the 11 games Dirk played from late-December thru late-January, he shot just 39.5% from the field and averaged just 18.8 ppg. However, Nowitzki seems to have regained his stroke and is inching closer to 100% health. Over his last four contests, Dirk has connected on 60% of his FG attempts and 100% of his free-throws – and is averaging 26.8 ppg and 5.8 boards.
* Steph Curry hans’t quite lived up to expectations this season, and it seems like he tweaks his ankle on a bi-weekly basis, but the kid is a fantasy monster whenever he plays. His sick combination of threes and absurd percentages (from the floor, stripe, and behind the arc), make him one of the most effective per-minute fantasy producers in the sport. Of players making two three-pointers a game, Curry and Ray Allen are the only two shooting over 48% from the field. Oh, and Steph is hitting 94% of his free-throws, which is a full eight percentage points higher than Ray Allen! I love Curry as a "buy-low" candidate right now. Scoop him up at below market value and chances are he’ll make a major impact down the stretch and in the playoffs.
* For some reason, Al Horford doesn’t get the respect he deserves from the mainstream media or fantasy freaks. He is currently ranked #8 overall in 9-cat roto leagues. Dude is incredibly consistent – he scores, he boards, and throws in a few blocks. He also shoots lights out from the field (57%) and the stripe (82%) – and very rarely turns the ball over.
* I admit I was skeptical of Derrick Rose’s fantasy prospects at the start of the season. A major reason for this cynicism was his inability to knock down three-pointers, which is usually an integral part of a PG’s (fantasy) success. Yes, I had read how he had worked diligently on his jumper all summer, in fact, I got to witness it up close at a TEAM USA practice back August. But I wasn’t sold. Well, turns out I was dead wrong. Rose has nailed at least four three-pointers in a single game on four separate occasions this season. Over his first two years in the NBA combined, he had only one such game. In fact, on this date last season, Rose had only made a total of four treys. (He is currently sitting at 77 threes this season). Rose’s ever-expanding range is a major reason why his scoring average has spiked this season.
* Much like Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook is enjoying a remarkable breakout season as well. He has scored in double-figures in 49 of the 50 games the Thunder have played this season, and he has dished out double-digit assists 10 of OKC’s last 13 contests as well.
* Kobe Bryant’s minutes are way down this season (34 mpg compared with 39 mpg in 2009-2010) which has obviously impacted his scoring; however, Kobe has been more slightly accurate from both the floor and the free-throw stripe while reducing his turnovers.
* Prior to the start of every season, each of us is instructed not to let Manu Ginobili slip too far. Yet, all too often, there are younger, more enticing picks still on the board even after we get past the first few rounds. So, the unproven youngsters with "awesome upside and potential" regularly get selected before Ginobili. This season, Manu is really making GM’s pay for ageism-based blunders. He is averaging a career-high in minutes and is superbly stuffing the stat-sheet on a nightly basis. In addition to his usual assortment of points, assists, and rebounds Manu is also top-5 in the NBA in three-point makes and steals.
* For some reason, despite posting astonishing numbers all season long, Rudy Gay hasn’t generated as much hype or national buzz as the other players listed above. But make no mistake; Gay’s stats are awesome. Talk about a career-year, he is averaging personal bests in points (20.1 ppg), assists (2.8), steals (1.7), blocks (1.1), FG% (46.7), 3FG% (39.9), and FT% (80.9). In fact, Gay is the only player in the NBA averaging at least one block, one steal, and one three-pointer.
* I loved Raymond Felton heading into Draft Day back in October, and that confidence has certainly been rewarded. However, the chances of Felton matching his first-half production over the final two months of the season are slim. Playing is Mike D’Antoni’s up-tempo offense is draining, and Raymond has been playing a ton of minutes. Wearing down has to be a legitimate concern. Take a look at the comparative first and second half stats from Chris Duhon’s first season in New York. They are frightening. After a phenomenal first few months, Duhon broke down and felt apart down the stretch. Of course Felton is a far better player than Duhon, but the cause for concern still exists. Here are Ray’s PPG and FG% by month this season: 18.6 ppg & 36.7% in November // 17.8 and 33.3% in December // 15.5 & 29% in January. If you own Felton, it might make sense to investigate the market and see if you can ‘sell high.’
* Not sure where to begin with Dorell Wright… Arguably the ADP-MVP over the first half of the 2010-2011 season. Who saw this coming? Mr. Wright has been just that for everybody that has Dorell on their roster right now. He is not just averaging career-highs in all major categories, he is nearly doubling all his previous highs. Fantasy success has a lot to do with being in the right place at the right time. Check and check for Dorell Wright. The Warriors fantasy-fiendly offense fits his skill set perfectly. And once he was given an opportunity to start, he ran with it. He hasn’t looked back. (He has made more three’s than anybody else in the NBA.) I think this pretty much sums it up: Yahoo! has a formula which tabulates all players who appear most often on the top 500 Public League teams – #1 on that list of Dorell Wright… If you smart/lucky enough to scoop up Wright off the waiver-wire, you are most likely sitting pretty right now.
* Per The Chicago Tribune, Joakim Noah remains on track to return after the All-Star break.
* You guys know the deal with Dwight Howard – he is far, FAR more valuable (Top-10 overall) in 5-category leagues and head-to-head formats. But in nine-cat leagues, which is what these rankings are based on, his FT% is crippling. Superman is shooting 57.9% from the stripe this season. That is a career low, and its 10 percentage points lower than what he shot from the FT line his rookie season. Not only does he shoot poorly from the line, he gets there more than any other player in the NBA (11.3 attempts per game), which really drags down your overall score in roto leagues. (As a point of comparison, Carmelo Anthony averages three fewer attempts per game than Howard, but still averages more FT makes).
* Regarding Brook Lopez and his unconscionable lack of rebounding this season, I’ll just copy and paste a couple of recent tweets related to his boarding prowess (or lack thereof): Brook Lopez hasn’t had more than 9 rebounds in a game since 12/1. Kevin Love hasn’t grabbed fewer than 10 rebounds in a game since 11/17… Over the last 5 weeks, Brook Lopez is averaging fewer than 4.5 rebounds per game. Kevin Love is averaging over 4 boards per QUARTER… What do J Kidd, Rajon Rondo, & Jrue Holiday all have in common? They are all PGs averaging more rebounds than Brook Lopez over last month…
* Over his last nine games, Tyson Chandler is averaging 15.4 points. Over the Mavs last five contests, he is averaging 14 boards.
* Blake Griffin locked up the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award months ago. He is one of the most exciting, talented, athletic, and gifted players to enter the league in a long, long time. That said, he is one of those guys that is far more valuable in ‘reality,’ than fantasy. The free-throw shooting is obviously horrible, but that’s not the only issue. The limited blocks and steals are also a problem. Consider this: BG has a total of just 28 blocks on the year. As a point of comparison, Bulls PG Derrick Rose has 34 blocks this season.
* Difficult to determine where to rank Marcus Camby. He has told reporters he plans to return to practice within a day or two. Yet, even after he returns, can he stay healthy?
* Wesley Matthews has been putting up big numbers since being inserted into his team’s starting lineup. When the Blazers signed Matthews as a free agent over the summer, the move left many in Portland scratching their head. Why invest major money in a shooting guard/forward, when Portland already had Brandon Roy, the face of their franchise, and Nicolas Batum on the roster? Well, with Roy’s career now in jeopardy, the Matthews signing looks like a brilliant move.
* Landry Fields is yet another Knick on this list – just goes to show how fantasy-friendly Mike D’Antoni’s offense can be when it’s firing on all cylinders. Fields came out of absolutely nowhere to become a fantasy factor this season. He is at or near the top of the rookie leader board in a vast majority of statistical categories. And, among NBA guards (not just rookies, but all guards) none average more rebounds than Fields (7.2 rebounds per game). Don’t feel bad if you passed on Landry on draft day, 29 NBA GM’s passed on Fields in last June’s NBA draft as well…
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