A key aspect of fantasy basketball is adapting to, or celebrating, changes.  At times, owners must figure out how to successfully maneuver through the many unexpected events that occur as the season unfolds; other times, owners get to revel in surprises that benefit their team.  Sure, we can usually rely on the greats (LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, etc.) to give us dependable numbers, but events such as in-season injuries (Aaron Brooks, Udonis Haslem), trades (Marcin Gortat, Rashard Lewis), train wrecks (J.R. Smith, Ron Artest) or suddenly-relevant players (Raymond Felton, Dorell Wright) make the game exciting or challenging.

 

In this analysis, we look at each team in the Western Conference and note the biggest fantasy surprises, both favorable and unfavorable, that have occurred so far.

*Note -All stats represent games played through 2/3/11

 

NORTHWEST DIVISION:

 

Portland Trail Blazers

 

Biggest fantasy surprise: Brandon Roy shuts down.

 

This team has been affected by so many injuries, it’s hard to even know where to begin.  Fantasy owners were wise to stay away from Greg Oden; sure enough, he was among the players who experienced season-ending knee surgeries (including now-cut Jeff Pendergraph and rookie Elliott Williams).   Also hit were Marcus Camby, Brandon Roy and long-delayed-in-returning Joel Przybilla.

 

Although 26-year-old Roy has had his fair share of injuries, dating back to high school, he always seems to battle through it successfully.  Few will ever forget his unbelievable comeback in Game Four of last season’s playoff series versus the Phoenix Suns a mere eight days following arthroscopic knee surgery; raise your hand if you think he returned too soon.  As this season rolled on, Roy did not play like the three-time All-Star who was the Blazers’ leading scorer the past three seasons.  It’s not that his numbers were bad, necessarily (16.6 ppg, 3.3 apg, 3.0 rpg, 39.9% fg); just not Roy-like (2009-10: 21.5 ppg, 4.7 apg, 4.4 rpg, 47.3% fg).  Finally in December, he was shut down with what we learned were meniscus-less knees.  He had double-knee surgery in mid-January; incredibly, he expects to return by season’s end.

 

Minnesota Timberwolves

Biggest fantasy surprise: Kevin Love is a rebounding machine.

 

Love has been a must-own since he came in the league two years ago, but whoever drafted him in your fantasy league this season hit the mother lode.

 

Consider this: Love is leading the league in double-doubles (43).  He has six games with at least 20 points and 20 boards (Howard led with three last season).  He has three games with at least 30 points and 20 boards (last player to do that?  Hakeem Olajawon in the 1990-91 season).  His 31/31 game against the New York Knicks on 11/12/10 hadn’t been achieved in 28 years.  And last, certainly not least, 22-year-old Love is knocking on the door of becoming the first player since Moses Malone in 1982-83 to average at least 20 points and 15 rebounds per game in a single season.

 

Love leads the league in total rebounds per game (15.5 – second ranked is Dwight Howard at 13.6).  His solid contributions in many other categories makes him valuable in fantasy play: 21.4 ppg, 2.5 apg, 5.7 free throws at 87.0% shooting, 1.4 three pointers at 43.9% shooting and 7.1 field goals at 47.2% shooting – all significant increases over last season.  Congrats to the just-named All-Star.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Biggest fantasy surprise: The words "elite point guard" frequently precedes Russell Westbrook’s name.

 

There’s no denying Kevin Durant is the face of the Thunder.  However, the frequency with which newly-named All-Star Westbrook has been mentioned this season makes a case that there are now two faces of the franchise.  The 22-year-old point guard is experiencing the infamous "third-year jump"; across-the-board increases have pleased owners despite having to put up with high turnovers (leads the league) and lack of three-point shooting.

 

Westbrook is league-ranked fourth in steals per game (1.9) and third in total free throws (336), plus sixth in total assists (407).  And he can score (22.4 ppg) and rebound (5.1).  He’s currently tied with LeBron James for most triple-doubles (3).

 

And he has not missed a single game in his career (212 games straight).

 

Denver Nuggets

Biggest fantasy surprise: The relevance of Arron Afflalo.

 

Sharp-shooter Afflalo has made the most of his increased minutes (35.2 per game vs. 27.2 last season) on the floor.  He’s averaging 12.9 ppg, 2.5 apg, 3.8 rpg and 1.6 in threes this season.

 

What makes the starter so especially valuable in fantasy basketball is how well he shoots the ball.  Check out his shooting percentages: 50.8% in field goals, 44.5% in three-pointers and 85.8% in free throws.  He’s ranked fourth in the league in both true shooting percentage (63.5%) and effective field goal percentage (59.5%) as well as sixth in offensive rating.  One thing to consider is the potential (read: very likely) elevation of his offense in a Carmelo Anthony-less Denver team.

 

Utah Jazz

Biggest fantasy surprise: Mehmet Okur is a non-factor.

 

Okur has missed 37 games this season for a host of reasons: the Achilles injury suffered in last season’s playoffs unexpectedly carried over to this season, an ankle sprain and, most recently, back issues.

 

It’s not that Okur has ever been considered a fantasy stud, but he’s solid.  He has career averages of 13.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.7 apg, 46.0% in field goal shooting at 29.1 minutes, and in recent years, contributed nicely in three-point shooting.  Undoubtedly, fantasy owners stashed him on draft-day with his upside as a center, but that move has not paid off thus far.  In the 13 games played, he’s posted 4.9 ppg and 2.3 rpg in less than 13 minutes playing time.

 

SOUTHWEST DIVISION:

 

Dallas Mavericks

Biggest fantasy surprise: Tyson Chandler’s toe and ankle are evidently fine.

 

Not only has 7’1" Chandler provided the Mavs with a serious defensive anchor, but he’s become a major vocal leader for his teammates, both on and off the court, and is already a fan favorite.

 

He leads the league in offensive rating and true shooting percentage (72.2%), plus he’s tenth-ranked in rebounds per game (9.3).  Chandler is averaging 10.2 points, 1.2 blocks and 77.4% in free throws.  His turnover percentage (percentage of possessions that end with a turnover) is at a career low of 14.3%.

 

The 28-year-old center has missed just three games this season; this is quite the nice surprise given he has missed 68 games over the past two years.

 

Houston Rockets

{AUTHOR_BOX}Biggest fantasy surprise: Aaron Brooks’ early injury.

 

Hopes were very high for Brooks this season based on his stand-out numbers in a starting role the year before (19.6 ppg, 5.3 apg, 2.6 rpg, 2.5 three-pointers at 39.8% and 82.2% in free throws at 35.6 minutes per game).  Brooks was off to a very promising start (18.2 ppg, 6.0 apg and 2.4 threes at 40% shooting in 23.7 minutes over 4½ games) when an ankle injury suffered 11/6/10 sidelined him the next six weeks.  Kyle Lowry happily took over the starting PG role (which he still has) and now the league’s Most Improved Player fights for his minutes back.

 

Since his return (22 games and started only twice), Brooks has averaged 11.5 points, 3.8 assists and 1.5 threes at a disappointing 22.1 minutes per game.

 

Memphis Grizzlies

Biggest fantasy surprise: The statistical fall of O.J. Mayo.

 

Starting with the obvious, Mayo lost his starting role and has averaged around ten minutes per game less this season (28.8) than he did the previous two seasons (38.0).  Naturally, his numbers have suffered accordingly (12.2 ppg, 1.9 apg, 2.6 rpg so far in 2010-11 vs. 18.0 ppg, 3.1 apg, 3.8 rpg averaged over 2009-10/2008-09); and shooting percentages have decreased across the board as well.  We expected more from the 2008 third overall draft pick.

 

Mayo has faced other surprising issues this year, including his name connected to trade rumors, fighting with teammate Tony Allen and most recently, the 10-game suspension for violating the league’s anti-drug policy.

 

New Orleans Hornets

Biggest fantasy surprise: Marcus Thornton’s decreased minutes.

 

Thornton impressed many in his rookie season last year, posting an average 14.5 points in 25.6 minutes.  He even started in those last 11 games, scoring an average 19.9 points in over 40 minutes playing time.  Based on that great finish and his terrific upside, we reasonable fantasy owners expected Thornton to pick right back up where he left off.  However, Marco Belinelli arrived on the scene and took his starting role and cut into his minutes.

 

So instead of double-digit scoring from Thornton this season, he’s posted 7.6 ppg in 16.3 average minutes and won’t return until after the All-Star break.

 

San Antonio Spurs

Biggest fantasy surprise: Manu Ginobili is playing career-high minutes.

 

This not-playing-in-Worlds-over-the-summer thing really worked out for the Spurs this season.  Ginobili has been healthy all year and is playing more minutes than ever before (31.6).  Another big surprise is that the notable sixth man was moved to a permanent starting role this season.  He’s logging certain numbers (18.7 ppg, 4.9 apg, 1.8 steals and 2.2 three-pointers per game) far better than his career averages.  His production looks to remain consistent going forward, as the team with the best record in the league (41-8) makes a push to the Finals.

 

The 33-year-old leads the Spurs in scoring, steals, free throws per game (5.0), free throw percentage (87.5%) and threes and was just named a 2011 All-Star reserve.

 

PACIFIC DIVISION:

 

Golden State Warriors

Biggest fantasy surprise: The emergence of Dorell Wright.

 

Wright’s free agent signing with the Warriors last summer garnered no fanfare; in hindsight, it should have.  He has simply turned heads with his abilities on both ends of the floor.  His averages blow away anything he did during his six years in Miami.  Check this line: 16.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1.4 steals in 39.4 minutes.  His average three-pointers per game (2.5) leads his team, and in fact, he leads the league in total three-pointers made (121).  Talk about music to owners’ ears.

 

Los Angeles Clippers

Biggest fantasy surprise: Blake Griffin is a double/double machine.

 

Simply put, Griffin is a beast.  Many drafted him in 2009-10 (including yours truly), held on fruitlessly for months, and were scared off this season.  Bad decision.

 

The 21-year-old rookie (and now All-Star) has 40 double/doubles this season, second only to Kevin Love.  In the first 48 games of his NBA career, the YouTube darling has averaged 23.0 points, 12.7 rebounds (ranked fourth in the league), 3.6 assists, 8.8 field goals per game at 51.8% shooting.  His total field goals of 422 place him sixth league-wide.  The glaring weakness is free throw shooting (61.1%) and blocks, but who’s complaining?

 

Los Angeles Lakers

Biggest fantasy surprise: Ron Artest’s worst career year ever.

 

You might think we’d point out how Kobe Bryant’s numbers are dipping, but that doesn’t seem like much of a surprise given his injury issues and the fact that, at just 32 years old, he’s in the middle of his 15^th career year.  Do you realize he’s logged 39,045 minutes of playing NBA basketball in 1,071 games?  No, we’re giving the surprise to Artest.

 

Artest has hit new lows in his career this season; this is the first time (now in his 12^th year) he’s not scored in double digits.  The following stats are the lowest figures for the 31-year-old since his career began in 1999-00: 8.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 1.3 spg, 0.8 free throws, 3.1 field goals…in 28.0 average minutes, also the lowest ever.

 

Amid swirling trade rumors, his defense remains sound, and he has maintained his starting role.

 

Phoenix Suns

Biggest fantasy surprise: Mid-season roster shake-up.

 

Last December, the Suns swapped leading scorer Jason Richardson (19.3 ppg), bad-fit Hedo Turkoglu (9.5 ppg) and little-used Earl Clark for Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat and Mickael Pietrus, plus a 2011 first-round draft pick.  The deal made sense on many levels, but it left owners reeling.  The smart money was picking up 26-year-old Gortat, an athletic big who scores, defends and rebounds.

 

After 20 games, Gortat has averaged 10.6 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 1.2 bpg at 58.6% field goal shooting in 25.0 minutes.  Carter was inserted into the starting lineup and has posted 14.9 ppg, 4.9 rebounds, 1.9 apg, 2.1 three-pointers at 40.9% shooting.

 

Sacramento Kings

Biggest fantasy surprise: Tyreke Evans numbers.

 

The reigning Rookie of the Year has disappointed owners who probably drafted him high based on last season.  They knew Evans became the fourth rookie in the books to average at least 20 points, five rebounds and five assists.  Unfortunately, a case of plantar fasciitis has robbed him of improving numbers in his sophomore year.  His conditioning has suffered, and his ability to finish at the rim has diminished.

 

He’s currently averaging 17.8 ppg, 5.5 apg, 4.8 rpg, and is league-ranked fifth in steals per game (1.8).  His shooting efficiency has decreased from 45.8% last season to 40.7%.  Evans is still playing around the same minutes (37.3) and has recently been showing more consistency.

  

HOOPSWORLD wants to know what you think.  In the comments section below, let us know what fantasy surprises, good or bad, rate the highest in the Western Conference in your opinion.