If the NBA Playoffs Started Today: West
None of the seeds are set in the Western Conference standings but the San Antonio Spurs seem likely to finish with the number one seed.
With 12-14 games apiece remaining, the eight teams in contention will jostle for position until the final days of the regular season. The Oklahoma City Thunder are more likely than not to be the second seed but the Memphis Grizzlies, Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets are all neck and neck.
The same can be said of the Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers, who are all fighting for the sixth, seventh and eighth positions. For the three bottom teams, there just isn’t enough time to climb higher than six.
The Lakers are the only team that has a real chance of dropping out altogether.
The following is a rundown of what the playoffs would look like if they started today:
No. 1 San Antonio Spurs (52-16)
Games Remaining: 14 (8 home, 6 away)
vs. .500: 11, vs. West: 11
No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers (36-33)
Games Remaining: 13 (7 home, 6 away)
vs. .500: 7, vs. West: 11
The Lakers are the postseason wild card. Injuries have dominated their season but both Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol are on the verge of returning. Steve Nash and Dwight Howard are closer to full strength. The Lakers may suddenly near expectations after floundering most of the year.
San Antonio won both meetings so far this year but by a combined total of five points. The first game was before Mike D’Antoni took over. The Lakers were missing both Steve Nash and Steve Blake.
Both Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard sat when the Lakers visited the Spurs in January. San Antonio was at full strength in both meetings and barely pulled out the victories.
If there’s a team for the Spurs to avoid, it might be the Lakers.
Key remaining matchups: The Spurs visit the Thunder on the second night of a back-to-back. A loss would even the season series and the Thunder currently have the better conference record (the next tiebreaker). San Antonio has a 2 1/2 game lead over Oklahoma City and a victory would all but lock in the top seed in the West. A loss might open the door to the Thunder. The Lakers still play the Warriors twice and the Rockets once. If they sweep all three, the Lakers have a chance to climb as high as the sixth seed. If they stumble, the Lakers could still fall right out of the postseason.
No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder (50-19)
Games Remaining: 13 (6 home, 7 away)
vs. .500: 7, vs. West: 7
No. 7 Houston Rockets (37-31)
Games Remaining: 14 (8 home, 6 away)
vs. .500: 7, vs. West: 11
The Thunder and Rockets need to meet in the postseason just for the James Harden storyline.
Oklahoma City dominated the first-two regular season meetings but lost the third in late February by just three. Harden exploded for 46 points. Jeremy Lin had 29.
Kevin Durant notched a triple-double in defeat but only scored 16 points.
Houston has been one of the best stories of the season but they may not be ready for a serious playoff series against the now-veteran laden Thunder.
Key remaining matchups: The Thunder have a relatively light schedule which makes that single matchup against the Spurs their most important game of the season. Of course it won’t matter if Oklahoma City doesn’t out-pace San Antonio. The Thunder also have three more road games on the second nights of back-to-backs (in Milwaukee, Indiana and Portland). The Rockets still have two games against the Grizzlies. They’ll visit Denver on the second night of a back-to-back. The crucial win to get may be on the final day of the season in Los Angeles against the Lakers.
No. 3 Memphis Grizzlies (46-21)
Games Remaining: 15 (6 home, 9 away)
vs. .500: 8, vs. West: 11
No. 6 Golden State Warriors (39-31)
Games Remaining: 12 (9 home, 3 away)
vs. .500: 5, vs. West: 11
The Grizzlies are one of the toughest defensive squads in the league. They’re physical and intimidating. The addition of Tayshaun Prince, who was a defensive ace on the championship Detroit Pistons squad, just adds to the equation.
Memphis hasn’t missed Rudy Gay’s offense. The ball goes inside to the tandem of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol more.
The Warriors were swept by the Grizzlies in three meetings. This is not a favorable matchup for Golden State.
Key remaining matchups:
The Grizzlies are currently on top of the Clippers and Nuggets but only by the tiniest of margins. The Clippers have the head-to-head tiebreaker and are guaranteed at least a top four seed by virtue of their impending win of the Pacific Division. Memphis just needs to win – and win often. Some of their challenging contests include visits to the Lakers, Knicks and Rockets. They’ll also host the Spurs, Clippers and Houston. The Warriors have the easiest schedule left out of any team in the West-playoff chase. A single win or a sweep over the Lakers will all but lock in the sixth or seventh seed. The Warriors don’t play the Rockets again. Both teams have lost 31 games – so Golden State has to take advantage of their schedule to out-pace Houston.
No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers (47-22)
Games Remaining: 13 (6 home, 7 away)
vs. .500: 6, vs. West: 11
No. 5 Denver Nuggets (48-22)
Games Remaining: 12 (7 home, 5 away)
vs. .500: 6, vs. West: 10
The Nuggets currently have home court advantage over the Clippers, which is a problem for Los Angeles. Denver has lost at home to just the Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves and the Washington Wizards – that’s it on the season.
Denver won two of three over the Clippers with the lone loss in Los Angeles. The Nuggets have won 14-straight and the Clippers are struggling after they had an early 17-game win streak of their own.
Chris Paul gives L.A. a chance to win in any game, especially in the playoffs. The Clippers would have a chance against the Nuggets but if the playoffs started today? Not a great one.
Key remaining matchups:
The Clippers are facing the prospect of starting the playoffs on the road, despite holding the higher seed. Currently the Nuggets are fifth in the West but are a half-game ahead of L.A. That problem goes away if the Clippers can climb back to the three seed. The Clippers still play in Memphis on the second night of a back-to-back. They also visit the Spurs and Houston on consecutive nights. Denver is on fire with win streak. They’ve lost just three games at home all year. Some of the more-difficult games ahead include visits to the Spurs, Jazz and Bucks. They’ll also host the Brooklyn Nets, Rockets and Spurs.
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