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With the seemingly never-ending MeloDrama now hijacking All-Star weekend, the debate in New York still rages on: To trade for Carmelo or to not trade for Carmelo.  That is the question…

Assuming Melo does in fact inform both the Nuggets and the Nets (either directly or via back channels) that he will not sign an extension with New Jersey, then the Knicks obviously gain significant leverage.  Despite New York being Carmelo’s preferred destination, it appears the Nuggets have been hesitant to consummate a deal with Donnie Walsh and the Knicks.  Rumors circulated earlier this month that Denver contacted the Lakers regarding a possible deal involving Andrew Bynum, and then the Nuggets re-engaged the Nets in trade talk after discussions had broken down in January.  The belief was, at worst, it would force the Knicks to up their offer.

And here we are, just days from the February 24th trade deadline, and no deal has yet been agreed upon.  Based on published reports from various news outlets, the Nuggets and Knicks have made progress on a potential trade, but still remain apart.  The NY Daily News is reporting owner Jim Dolan is prepared to overrule President Donnie Walsh and Coach Mike D’Antoni in order to deliver Carmelo to NYC.  While that may or may not be true, it underscores the fact folks throughout New York remain divided on whether or not their hometown team should gut the roster of the current squad, a team many fans have fell in love with, in order to bring in Anthony, a legit superstar that would form an imposing frontcourt tandem with Amar’e Stoudemire.  Nearly all Knicks’ fans obviously love the idea of Carmelo Anthony, one of the NBA’s greatest scorers, playing his home games at MSG.  However, whether or not it makes sense to deconstruct the Knicks current roster in order to make it happen is where the consensus diverges.  

As I discussed in my chat earlier this week, there are essentially two schools of thought on this topic:

1) The Knicks should NOT gut their roster and give up a bevy of young talent in order to trade for a player that obviously wants to come in NY and will become a free agent next summer. Thus, the preferred course of action would be to stand pat and hope Melo doesn’t sign an extension with Denver, or New Jersey, or anywhere else – and eventually joins Knicks over the summer; who would then boast a roster replete with young, valuable assets in addition to Melo (signed at a discount rate).

2) The other side of the debate would argue one crucial concept: Don’t tempt fate.  You have the chance to sign one of the NBA’s best offensive weapons and a legit top-15 overall player.  Don’t try to out-think the room.  The Knicks are a decent team right now, but as presently constituted, they will never advance deep into the playoffs.  Yes, it is tough to give up homegrown talent with promise, especially considering you may be able to get Melo free and clear over the summer.  But (big BUT) taking that chance and rolling the dice in free agency is too great a risk.  Moreover, when you sign Melo to an extension, you’ll be unable to sign players such as Wilson Chandler in free-agency anyway.  Thus, it is not as if you are giving up a guy you’d have under contract for three more years anyway.  Bottom line – go get Melo. Now.

Both camps can make legitimate, convincing arguments.  There are multiple pros and cons to both sides of the debate. 

Personally, I’d go with option (2): Go Get Melo ASAP.

However, before I flesh out that side of the argument, let me first address why the first option makes sense as well.

Let’s start with money issue.  Besides giving up a cadre of young talented wing players, the problem with trading for Carmelo now is that you have to fork over a huge chunk of change in order to lock him up long-term.  If NY trades for Carmelo, the Knicks will sign him to a huge extension as part of the deal.  Melo will get paid $18.5 million next season, and then $64+ million over three years tacked on after that.  This is significant for multiple reasons.  First, the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) may be completely revamped this off-season.  It will forever change the economic landscape of the NBA as we know it.  Thus, hefty contracts will be even more crippling going forward. If the Knicks sign Melo to an extension next week, Amar’e and Anthony will combine for nearly $40 million a season over the next four seasons.  Assuming the cap shrinks significantly in the new CBA, that means STAT and Melo will take up the vast majority of the Knicks cap space going forward.  If the cap drops to say $50 million, it will be obviously be tough to round out the roster.  Consider this: In 2015, Amar’e is set to make $23.4 million.  Melo’s extension would pay him a similar amount for the 2014-2015 campaign.  That means the Knickerbockers will be spending nearly $47 million on just their two starting forwards.

Of course, any FA’s signed next summer, AFTER the new CBA has been ironed out, will likely be paid far less than current max-contracts allow.  Melo and his agents are keenly aware of this, which is why they are so determined to get Melo traded before the deadline, so he can ink an extension and lock in that major money.  He could potentially be leaving (depending on various estimates) up to $35-$40 million on the table.  So, follow me here, if the Knicks were to wait until the summer to sign him as a free-agent, the Knicks would reap the benefits of that cheaper contract.  Not only would they keep the majority of their roster intact, they would retain considerably more cap flexibility going forward.  This would allow them to address other pressing needs, such as depth at center and back-up PG.
 
Which leads us to another issue – if the Knicks give up three starters to obtain Melo, it leaves them with very little depth.  Amar’e is already playing too many minutes, which is a significant concern.  If the Knicks were to give up some combination of Gallinari, Fields, and Chandler, etc., D’Antoni would have to lean heavily on players such as Bill Walker and Shawne Williams. 

One more point related to the Knicks future roster: while those supporting the idea of getting Melo immediately at all costs correctly point out that signing Anthony as a free-agent this summer will almost assuredly prevent the Knicks from re-signing restricted FA Wilson Chandler (thus, Chandler can be viewed as a throw-in in any deal in this scenario), that is not entirely true.  Yes, Chandler wouldn’t be a part of the Knicks 2011-2012 Opening Night roster, but that doesn’t mean New York wouldn’t lose him for nothing.  Remember last summer, after the Knicks signed PF Amar’e Stoudemire to a hefty contract, everyone knew that David Lee’s days in NYC were numbered.  However, Donnie Walsh was still able to flip Lee in a sign-and-trade with the Warriors, which netted the Knicks Ronny Turiaf, Anthony Randolph, and Kelenna Azubuike.  Chandler would obviously have significant value on the open market this summer, and a sign-and-trade (depending on the new intricacies CBA) is certainly a viable possibility.     
 
Another ‘con’ in giving up the farm for Melo is Mr. Anthony, while an elite scorer, has never been considered a great, or even good, defender throughout his career.  This is obviously a cause for concern considering the Knicks are already such a porous team defensively (New York is currently allowing teams to shoot 46.9% from the floor and giving up 105.8 PPG this season, second most in the NBA).  The two cornerstones of the Knicks foundation going forward would be two defensively-deficient forwards, which could obviously lead to major problems come the postseason, when getting stops in big spots becomes a necessity. 

As noted above, there is obviously some potential downside and clearly a few ‘cons’ to consider before pulling the trigger on a Carmelo trade.

However, with all said, the smart money says: Get Carmelo.

Bottom line, the opportunity to acquire a player like Carmelo Anthony simply does not present itself very often.  When it does, you pounce.  Superstars win playoff series and championships in this league.  Getting Carmelo does not make the Knicks a championship contender overnight.  However, it gets them closer to that goal than they were last week.  It puts them (potentially) one player away (CP3?) from becoming a legit threat in the East. 

In order to justify this side of argument, let’s start here: The Knicks, as currently constituted, are a .500 ballclub.  We assumed that’s what they might be when previewing the season back in late October.  They stumbled out of the gate, losing eight of their first 11 contests.  Then they got hot in December.  However, they plummeted back to earth in January.  At the All-Star break, their record stands at 28-26.  And that is with most of the team remaining remarkably healthy.  Raymond Felton and Amar’e Stoudemire have missed a total of one game combined.  They have yet to suffer a major injury to one of their key cogs. 

Yes, Knicks’ fans hesitance to break up this team is understandable.  Poor NYC hoop fans have been deprived of anything resembling competitive basketball for so long, they fell in love with this team.  And unlike Knick teams of the recent past that had lucked into a couple of win streaks here and there, this Knicks unit, with an MVP-caliber player as its catalyst, is no longer a laughingstock.  The outcry from some since the tide starting turning positively in New York has been: "We finally have a competitive, talented team – why try and fix something that isn’t completely broke.  Why shake up the chemistry and mojo unnecessarily?  Why trade away important assets, especially when Donnie Walsh can simply sign Carmelo as a free agent next summer… This way, the Knicks could add a major piece, without any sort of subtraction…"
 
{AUTHOR_BOX}It is a legitimate argument; however, that line of thinking doesn’t necessarily factor in the complete picture.  Economics, as detailed above, are an essential part of the equation.  Examining the situation further – if the Knicks want to keep Gallo, Chandler, and Fields long-term, Walsh is going to have to cut some significant checks.  Chandler will become a restricted free agent next summer, and although the Knicks will have his "Bird Rights," we can safely assume he will receive some hefty offers.  If guys like Amir Johnson, Charlie Villanueva, Travis Outlaw, Drew Gooden, and John Salmons can get $30 to $40 million, what will Chandler command on the open market?  Even if the Knicks weren’t able to sign Melo as a FA, would Walsh, who early on espoused the idea of cap-flexibility and made it a major tenet of his philosophy with the Knicks, match the highest bid? 
 
Furthermore, Gallinari and Landry Fields are locked up through the 2011-2012 season, but then they both become restricted free agents as well.  Adding to this core will not be all that simple; especially if the new CBA implements a hard-cap (worst-case scenario), or, at the very least, reduces the cap threshold.    

While we are on the topic of Gallinari and Chandler, some NY media members and fans seems to overestimating their value.  Yes, Gallo has improved this season, and possesses an undeniably exciting upside, but his game is not without its flaws.  His field-goal percentage and three-point percentage has dropped in two consecutive seasons.  He is currently shooting 41.5% from the floor and 34.7% from three-point land this season.  More importantly, Gallo’s long-term durability could be considered a question mark.  Remember, in April of 2009 Gallo’s rookie season was cut short after he underwent back surgery.  In a procedure known as a laminotomy, doctors shaved down a bony plate that was irritating a nearby nerve.  Even in a best-case scenario, Gallinari will never posses the skill-set of a Carmelo Anthony.  Ditto for Wilson Chandler.  Wilson looks like a star in the making on some nights, but is woefully inconsistent for stretches as well.  Taking nothing away from Chandler’s pro progress, can he be considered an integral contributor on a great team?            

Ideally, the Knicks would be able to keep everybody, but that is just not inline with reality.  If you have the chance to trade couple of quarters, dimes, nickels for a silver dollar – you pull the trigger…

The most recent incarnations of the MeloDrama trade rumors have also included New York shipping out Raymond Felton and bringing back Chauncey Billups.  This has angered some New Yorkers, who claim this would be a major downgrade.  I disagree.  First, a quick question: What does Chauncey Billups have in common with Kobe Bryant, Paul Pierce, Tony Parker, Dwyane Wade, Tim Duncan, Shaq O’Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Michael Jordan?  They are the only players to have been named an NBA Finals MVP over the past 20 seasons.

Billups is a consummate winner.  He has won everywhere he’s been since developing into an elite point guard in Detroit a decade ago.  And let’s not think he is no longer effective.  While not a quick as he once was, Billups’ basketball IQ has only increased, and he continually finds a way to be effective.  Over his last 30 games as a Nugget, Billups is averaging 18 points per game, 5.3 assists, 2.4 threes, while shooting an astonishing 49.5% from floor, 50% from three-point range, and 96% from the charity stripe.  Bottom line: Billups can still ball.  And we haven’t even touched on the intangibles.  Billups is without a doubt one of the most respected players in the entire league.  Billups would immediately join Amar’e as a locker room leader and the Knicks would be better off because of it.     

Raymond Felton, whom the Bobcats choose to let walk away this past summer, and no other team pursued aggressively, fortunately fell into the Knicks lap.  And as a PG playing in Mike D’Antoni’s system, he has excelled.  Everyone loves Raymond, and rightfully so.  However, the chances of Felton matching his first-half production over the final two months of the season are slim.  Playing is the ‘seven seconds or less’ up-tempo offense is draining, and Raymond has been playing a ton of minutes.  Wearing down has to be a legitimate concern.  Here are Felton’s PPG and FG% by month this season: 18.6 ppg & 36.7% in November // 17.8 and 33.3% in December // 15.5 & 29% in January.  He has picked up his play in February, but the cause for concern still exits. 

Lastly, the key factor in considering the PG situation: Billups’ contract, which is only partially guaranteed for next season, expires after the 2011-2012 season, which just so happens to be the same summer that Chris Paul and Deron Williams hit the free-agent market. 

With all that said, the lynchpin of the argument for aggressively pursuing a trade with Denver is adding Anthony, a legit NBA superstar. 
 
At the end of the day, this is a star’s league.  The Knicks trio of talented youngsters possesses exciting upside, but Carmelo has already reached those heights.  He is up in that stratosphere right now, as we speak.  Carmelo is a certified game-changer; adding him to the Knicks roster would be crucial for numerous reasons.

The Knicks have tallied 28 victories thus far, but the team often has to lean heavily on its stud PF down the stretch, often asking Amar’e to carry them home.  Amar’e has been many things throughout his career.  At times, he has been unstoppable and dominant; but, unfortunately, ‘durable’ is one adjective not usually associated with his name.  Amar’e has played 80 games or more four times during his NBA career.  In each of those four seasons, he averaged 34 minutes or less.  It is hard not to notice the correlation.  Having an insurance policy should Amar’e get dinged up is always a plus.  As of now, if the Knicks lost Amar’e for an extended stretch, they’d be sunk.

With Carmelo on board, not only can you reduce the load your lead horse has to carry, you also add an accomplished endgame scorer that can take the crunch-time pressure off of STAT.  As lethal as the pick-and-roll has become, having Melo spotted up foul-line extended on the opposite side of the floor only puts extra strain on a drawn-out defense.  The mere presence of Melo (yes, I understand he isn’t overly reliable from three-point land, but he still needs to be respected wherever he is on the floor) stretches the defense and maximizes the space Stoudemire and his PG (whoever that mightbe) have to work with.  I have seen some media members argue Melo isn’t a good fit in Mike D’Antoni’s offense, which I have to admit I find humorous.  One of the game’s great offensive minds, and one of league’s greatest scorers… For some reason, I think D’Antoni would somehow figure out a way to utilize Anthony’s infinite offensive skill set.
 
In addition, Carmelo wants to come here.  That can not be overstated or underestimated.  It takes a rare athlete to embrace the pressure/responsibility and everything else that comes with being a highly-paid athlete in New York City.  We have already seen the impact Stoudemire’s swagger has had on the culture of the Knicks organization.  Is Carmelo cut from the same cloth?  From what we can gather, he believes he is.  Will he get the chance to prove it?          
 
Lastly, addressing those New Yorkers who are supremely confident the Knicks should just be patient and wait till next summer to sign Carmelo; well, there is absolutely no guarantee Anthony lands in the Apple.  For starters, free agency is always a roll of the dice.  Free agency will be an increased gamble next summer, when the system will be completely overhauled before the start of the 2011-2012 season – if there even is a 2012-2012 season!  A prolonged lockout remains a distinct possibility.  And as the probability of a lockout increases as the weeks and months drag on, will Carmelo sit idly by and not sign a $65 million contract staring him in the face?        
 
If you have the chance to lockup up Carmelo today, you may rue the day you let him slip away.