Updated: July 22, 2011, 10:54 am ET

NBA AM: The 11th Hour Is Here

By Steve Kyler
Managing NBA Editor & Publisher

The 11th Hour Is Here: At 12:01am EST the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement will expire setting in motion a chain of events that will scar the NBA both publicly and privately and end up costing both the NBA and its Players untold millions in lost salary and revenue.

Both sides are expected to meet this afternoon for a final negotiating session before the hammer of a Lockout falls.

The general belief is the Players will not counter the Owners’ latest proposal and the NBA will likely make a few minor concessions to say they tried to reach a deal and if the two sides cannot agree, there will be anarchy in the NBA.

The Owners’ latest offer was a 10-year labor deal guaranteeing the players at least $2 billion in salaries and benefits annually over the life of the deal. The players earned $2.1 billion last season, but believe with the unprecedented interest in the NBA this season a true percentage split would yield more money down the road than the owners are committing to.

The Owners’ offer introduced a “flex cap” where teams can exceed certain salary cap figures, but not exceed $62 million. The NBA Players believe this is simply a hard cap by a different name and believe it will decimate the middle class in the NBA.

The Owners have backed off their demands that no contract in the NBA can be fully guaranteed, to which the Players contend they have that concession already and teams can negotiate their own levels of guarantees into deals now.

The Owners want certain expenses related to franchise acquisition such as interest and depreciation costs deducted from revenues before they are split with players. The Players contend it’s these costs, which owners brought on themselves with questionable financing, that have pushed teams to the losses they claim are bringing down the NBA.

The Owners have backed off their demands for major salary rollbacks, which were believed to be in the 22% range initially, pointing their attention to the 8% Escrow Fund Players have been paying into since 2005.

Under the current labor deal, players contribute 8% of their checks to a fund designed to insure the Players do not receive more than 57% of revenues. The fund typically has about $160 million in it each summer and is used to reduce the percentage paid to the Players via rebates to teams staying under the Luxury Tax.

Over the last three years players have seen very little of that money returned to them so the Owners have suggested the rollbacks they seek simply be the Escrow dollars Players are already losing.

The Players responded negatively to that notion, mainly because the NBA wanted to use the $160 million projected to be in that fund immediately. The Players, who were projected to get that money back for the first time this season, viewed that as the NBA taking back money already earned under the current deal.

Both sides have expressed a willingness to reduce the length of new contracts and alter the value of the current Salary Cap exceptions to reach a deal, however the NBA Players believe the current Mid-Level salary cap exception is vital to a healthy middle class in the NBA, and has said removing it altogether would kill the middle tier in the NBA and that’s a non-starter for them.

Sources close to the talks said last night they are not optimistic any progress will be made this afternoon but both sides are open to ideas.

The NBA has said if there was a reason to extend the 12:01am deadline, they would consider it.

With the Players feeling like the current labor system is not broken and the NBA Owners seeking some $400 million a year in changes to the system, it’s unlikely that a deal or even the possibility of a deal gets resolved today, meaning tomorrow will start a series of events that will no doubt derail the progress the NBA has made over the last few years and cast the specter of a lost season into the forefront of the summer.

Blazers Make Offer to Oden:  The Portland Trail Blazers said they would extend a Qualifying Offer to center Greg Oden. After all they selected him with the top overall pick in 2007.

The idea of a $8.78 million offer to a player that has played in exactly 82 games in four season seemed more like saving face than a savvy basketball move and some openly wondered if the Blazers would actually follow through, and yesterday they did.

Blazers’ president Larry Miller says the offer was more about staying committed to their guy, who has had two microfracture surgeries and a ruptured patella tendon in four years.

“We are committed to him, because we think a healthy Greg Oden helps this team,” Miller said to Jason Quick of The Oregonian. “We’ve invested a lot in Greg, and him being healthy is one of the keys to us being able to bring a championship home to Portland.”

“At the end of the day, it’s not Greg’s fault that he has not been able to be healthy,” Miller said. “He has caught some bad breaks. But we still believe in Greg.”

Oden is still rehabbing from a November microfracture procedure last year and is on schedule for a return to action in mid-November of this year.

“Greg was extremely excited about getting the offer and he reiterated to me that he wants to be in Portland and help the organization win,” Miller said. “He appreciates the fact that we have stuck with him.”

“At this point, we are not going to give up on him,” Miller said. “When we drafted him, we believed – as did most people around the NBA – that he is a game changer. And he has shown us in some of the games when he was healthy, we still believe that he can help us win. So based on what we believe Greg can bring to the table, it was not a difficult decision for us.”

By issuing the $8.78 million Qualifying Offer Oden will become a restricted free agent, assuming that designation exists in the next labor deal, and the Blazers can match any contract offer Oden receives.

Given his injury history there may not be many suitors willing to commit large dollars to Greg, especially coming off a second microfracture procedure.

However the Blazers’ offer is only a one-year deal, it will be interesting to see if another team would be willing to offer a two-year deal and test the Blazers’ commitment.

The Blazers would have the rights to match anything Greg is offered in free agency, the question becomes will teams see the same future promise in Oden today as the Blazers say they do?

Young Wants To Stay:  You can file this under “what else can he say”, but 76ers forward Thaddeus Young says he hopes he can remain in Philadelphia and that 76ers head coach Doug Collins told him this week the team would do whatever it could to insure he stays a Sixer as he enters Free Agency once the labor dispute is resolved.

“Coach is always talking to me that I’m going to be here and that they’re doing their best to keep me here and they’re going to do things to keep us happy, keep the team happy.” Young said to Bob Cooney of the Philadelphia Daily News. It’s just a matter of getting it done.”

“I love the city, I love the atmosphere, I love our motto “Show Ya Luv.” I just love the team. They’re like brothers to me; it’s the first team I’ve ever been on, the team that drafted me, and I think something really good is about to happen. Coach Collins is that coach. I think he is the guy who can actually take us to the next level.”

Doug Collins met individually with his players this week to set them on an off-season plan, knowing that if a Lockout is imposed he will not be able to have contact with his players and they will have to prepare on their own.

“We had our meeting together on Monday,” explained Young. “It was great. He asked me what I was doing and how I was doing; how much have I been doing and what I should do and what I shouldn’t do. He told me to have patience throughout this whole situation. We’re going to get something done, we just don’t know when.”

Young was issued a Qualifying Offer of $3.99 million for next season, locking in the 76ers rights to match offers he receives in Free Agency, assuming that provision exists in the next Labor deal.

Young was the 76ers fourth leading scorer at 12.7 points per game and logged 5.3 rebounds per contest. The 6’8 Young is a prototypical NBA small forward and looks to be one of the more coveted players in the 2011 Free Agent class.

J.J. The Starter?  The Orlando Magic are in a tough spot financially and it looks like they will not reach a contract extension deal with pending free agent Jason Richardson before the 11:59pm deadline tonight.

{AUTHOR_BOX}The Magic could be short on starters at the two guard spot, which has opened up talk that long-time reserve J.J. Redick may get his shot at being a starter in Orlando, something he says he’d love to see happen, but isn’t sure it will.

“I don’t know if that’ll ever happen with the Magic, and to be quite frank with you, I’m OK with that,” Redick said to Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel.

“I would certainly like to start. I mean every player would probably like to start. But I enjoy my role on the Magic and for me, any frustration that I’ve had in the last few years has been about not winning a championship. That’s kind of what my focus is.”

Redick is currently slated to earn $6.75 million in the second year of a contract originally offered by the Chicago Bulls in which the Magic matched. The Bulls had committed to making Redick a starter in Chicago and had front loaded their offer to J.J. in hopes of swaying the Magic into passing on their 6’4 shooting guard.

Redick started five games for the Magic last season and is coming off a torn abdominal muscle which was surgically repaired the first week of June.

Redick is under contract for two more seasons in Orlando with the final year of his deal being partially guaranteed, making him one of the more attractive trade chips the Magic have to offer.

Magic team president Otis Smith continues to say his team does not need major roster changes and that keeping his core intact and getting a full training camp will mean more than massive changes.

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