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NBA AM: The 2011 Top Draft Prospects

Posted By Steve Kyler On March 23, 2011 @ 8:04 am In All,NBA Draft | No Comments

The Top Ten Today:  The 2011 NBA Draft is 92 days away and after three rounds (still sounds silly to say) of the tournament, some questions about guys have been answered.

The NCAA Tournament is typically when NBA GMs really get a chance to see players and how they handle a competitive environment. Throughout the college basketball season scouts and executives will target certain players, but key decision makers often don’t get seriously involved until the various tournaments start.

With the opening rounds out of the way and a Sweet Sixteen remaining, some questions about would-be draft picks have been answered and a clearer picture of the Top 10 is starting to emerge.

Based on commentary from around the league, here is the word on the Top 10 as of today:

1 – Kyrie Irving – Duke, Freshman – PG – 6’2" – 185 – 18

Irving is the best pro prospect in the class. He has the tools and the quickness NBA teams covet and if the Cleveland Cavaliers end up with the top overall pick it is going to be hard for them to pass on Irving.

Sources close to the situation say it’s a better than 70% chance Irving is coming out after his freshman season, and barring injury at some point on Duke’s run through the tournament, Irving is ready for life at the next level.

The fact Irving played in Duke’s first two games and played well answered any lingering questions about his toe injury. According to a few scouts the only way Irving does not go #1 is if Cleveland opts to take someone else, not because of talent.

2 – Jonas Valanciunas – Lietuvos Rytas – C – 6’11" – 240 – 18

Jonas is the best pure center prospect of the bunch. He may not go #2, mainly because of how the draft order could shake out. As things stand today, the Minnesota Timberwolves and Sacramento Kings are tied with the 2nd worst record. If the Kings get the #2 pick, they are unlikely to go center have drafted both DeMarcus Cousins and Hassan Whiteside last year.

However, if Minnesota gets the pick they may be reluctant to go Euro and may opt for a massive upside guy.

Jonas is arguably the second-best pro prospect, and holds down the #2 spot on our Top 100, but the 6’11 pivot may not be the second player taken.

Jonas is a bit raw, but when you look at his rebounding and low post game he is going to be a hard player to pass up.

3 – Jared Sullinger – Ohio State, Freshman – PF – 6’8" – 250 – 19

There is not a talent evaluator anywhere that has not commented on Jared’s size. As good a player as he has been for Ohio State, he is going to battle stereotyping for his position.

Jared is everything you want in a NBA power forward, he is just three inches too short for his game. While guys like Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap have excelled despite being outside the normal size, there is still discussion Jared may take a hit because of it.

Jared’s father has recently hinted Jared may not come out this year; if Jared opts to stay at Ohio State he could improve his stock tremendously and avoid the uncertainty of a possible lockout in the NBA.

If Jared opts to come out, he’ll have to really impress teams in individual workouts because most teams shy away from guys outside of the prototype, especially with top picks.

4 – Harrison Barnes – North Carolina, Freshman – SF – 6’8" – 210 – 18

To say Harrison underachieved at North Carolina is likely an understatement. However between the ACC tournament and his first couple of games in the NCAA tournament he has started to look more like the player everyone thought he’d be coming in.

There has been talk he may also stay in school rather than face the uncertainty of the NBA’s labor fight and there are still a lot of questions surrounding his game at the next level.

Barnes is easily the fourth-best talent, but unless he gets the wink-nod from a team in the top five it may be hard for him to justify coming out now, when he could stay and maybe play himself into the top overall spot that was his at the start of the basketball season and maybe pick up a National Championship along the way.

5 – Perry Jones – Baylor, Freshman – PF – 6’11" – 220 – 19

Perry Jones is a freak athlete, but as one talent evaluator said recently, he reminds teams too much of Anthony Randolph and he’s been a bust so far in the NBA. That’s an image he is going to have to shake in individual workouts.

Another player Jones has been likened to is Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside had a lot of hype and a lot of upside, but when it came down to individual workouts he was a boy among men.

Unlike Whiteside, who is a center, Perry is more of a small forward, combo-guard type player and at a legit 6’11 he could be matchup nightmare like Kevin Garnett was coming into the league.

Some scouts have written off Perry’s subpar season at Baylor to bad guard play, but there are others that say he has a lot to prove in workouts.

The fact Jones was suspended for accepting improper benefits means he is likely done in college anyway, so he is likely the safest bet of them all to actually be in the draft and if players like Harrison Barnes and Jared Sullinger pull out Perry may go higher than projected mainly because he still looks like a player with amazing upside.

6 – Derrick Williams – Arizona, Sophomore – PF – 6’8" – 235 – 19

Derrick may genuinely be the best pro-ready player of the bunch. With Arizona still alive in the Tournament there are going to be more opportunities for him to show up big on the big stage.

Derrick had a subpar game versus Texas so he will need to shake that versus Duke tomorrow, as you never want scouts to see your last game as a dud.

Looking at Derrick’s complete season and his overall skill set, it’s not a reach to believe Derrick could be the top pick. Being the top pick would require a team like Cleveland falling in love, and that’s easy to do with Derrick’s game and skills.

As things stand today Derrick is arguably the sixth-best draft prospect on the board and if the Draft Lottery holds true to the standings Derrick Williams to the Toronto Raptors or the Utah Jazz, who could pick in that range, would be an almost perfect fit.

7 – Kemba Walker – Connecticut, Junior – PG – 6’0" – 180 – 20

The similarities between Kemba Walker and Detroit’s Ben Gordon, a UCONN alum, are almost uncanny. Both are electric scorers, both have a non-stop motor and both do not translate well as point guards in the NBA.

Kemba might be a better point prospect than Gordon was, but at the end of the day Kemba looks like a Tyreke Evans, Ben Gordon score-first player at the next level.

Based on how well he has played this season Walker is an almost lock to go top 15, and putting him in the top 10 seems like a smart play.

Kemba is a proven prospect and in a draft class with so many freshmen, Kemba could draw more attention because of his experience.

Walker could also benefit tremendously if Harrison Barnes and or Jared Sullinger opt to stay in school for another year.

8 – Jan Vesely – KK Partizan Belgrade – SF/PF – 6’11" – 240 – 20

Jan could have been a top 10 pick last year, and while one more year playing in Europe has helped his game physically, he is not overly better as a prospect this year than he was last year.

Jan is a 6’11 small forward type, and some have compared him to Dirk Nowitzki meets Blake Griffin, mainly because he can shoot the ball effectively from deep and if you give him a little space he can drive and dunk on you, something you normally do not see from long Euro-type players.

Jan has been on the NBA radar for some time, so the odds that he is not drafted in the top 15 this year are pretty slim and if Barnes and Sullinger opt to stay his stock could go way up because he is a very proven commodity.

9 – John Henson – North Carolina, Sophomore – PF – 6’10" – 200 – 20

John Henson is very raw from an offensive point of view, but NBA teams have become enamored with his size and his defense.

The 6’10 Henson is extremely long and as he proved in the Tournament versus Washington, he can be extremely disruptive.

If Harrison Barnes stays for another season at Chapel Hill, Henson might do the same.

There are a lot of questions about Henson at the next level and it’s easy to compare him to former Tarheel Brandan Wright. Henson has a higher basketball IQ than Wright, but both have similar games.

Very long, very athletic, not a lot of polish to their offensive game.

Henson might be best served staying in school, but the allure of the NBA may be too much.

10 – Brandon Knight – Kentucky, Freshman – PG/SG – 6’3" – 170 – 18

You could just as easily put Brandon Knight in the bottom ten as you can in the top ten.

Opinions on Knight vary that greatly.

Brandon has had a decent tournament, and that always helps a players stock, but when you look at his entire season there are a lot of questions Brandon is going to have to answer in workouts. Like Henson, Brandon may best be served staying another year at Kentucky and polishing up his game.

Knight is a capable scorer, a sometimes reluctant passer and overall his game is solid, but not spectacular.

Brandon looks like a lot of other guards in college basketball, making him a bubble guy in the top ten.

If Brandon comes out, he will get drafted, the skills are there and the talent is there. However he may not go nearly as high as some project mainly because he has a lot of questions.

A ten to late teens pick is more likely than something in the top 10.

While the top ten in this draft class is far from set, those are the names most have in the top of the class.

There are a few names to watch in individual workouts that could unseat a few of these guys, namely:

Enes Kanter – Turkey – PF/C – 6’10" – 250 – 18
Terrence Jones – Kentucky, Freshman – SF/PF – 6’8" – 200 – 19
Alec Burks – Colorado, Sophomore – SG – 6’6" – 200 – 19
Jimmer Fredette – BYU, Senior – PG – 6’2" – 195 – 22

All four could easily steal a spot in the Top Ten as teams start to take a closer look individually.

You can always check out the HOOPSWORLD Top 100 Players Rankings, powered by Draft Express.

We will start our Weekly Mock Drafts in April, with the five expert Consensus Mock Drafts starting in May.

How ‘Bout Them Nuggets?  The Denver Nuggets continue to roll, having won 11 of the 15 games they have played since trading away Carmelo Anthony to the New York Knicks.

In that span the Nuggets have had six different scorers lead the team in the 15 games since the trade. Carmelo Anthony led the team in scoring 34 times in his 50 games in Denver this season.

What is clicking in Denver? They no longer have to force 20-plus shots a game into any one player. The Nuggets can simply ride the hot hand and after the trade the Nuggets have a lot of guys that can play that role.

"The gossip of the trade was one-sided," Nuggets’ head coach George Karl said to Jamey Eisenberg of CBSSports. "Celebrations in New York and we just got the scraps. We never felt that way. We felt we had a hell of a chance to be a good team and all of [the players] are better than I thought they were."

"I think sometimes the league thinks there’s only one way to win in the NBA, and I’ve always felt the creativity of basketball is there’s 20 ways to win," Karl said. "They say you can only win in pro ball with superstars … I don’t think that’s true."

Conversely, while the Nuggets continue to roll, the Knicks continue to struggle having lost three straight games and six of their last seven.

If the playoffs started today, the Nuggets would be the 5th seed and open the playoffs on the road versus the Oklahoma City Thunder, a team they are 4 full games behind in the standings.

In the Western Conference one game separates each road seeded team with the Nuggets being one game up on sixth seeded Portland, while Portland is one game up on seventh seeded New Orleans, while New Orleans is one game up on eight seeded Memphis.

The Nuggets have 11 games remaining on the season, with ten of those 11 being against Western Conference teams.

It Is Inevitable:  Sacramento Mayor Johnson on his personal blog likened the pending move of the Sacramento Kings to a "slow death" saying that it was inevitable his city was losing the Kings to Anaheim, and after insuring the city was fully repaid any outstanding loans and debts he would turn his attentions on landing a Major League Soccer team in Sacramento.

Mayor Johnson wrote:

"It feels like a slow death.

From the start of the saga that may soon close the Kings’ era in Sacramento, I have said the community should focus on what it can control, and not worry about decisions that are out of our hands.

The decision to move a business – let’s not forget, the Kings are a business – rests with the owners. We can talk and do our best to persuade, but in the end, the choice to relocate belongs to the people who own the team.

Of course, none of this makes it any easier to watch the steady drip of what will likely be the Kings’ final weeks in Sacramento after 26 years.

First we heard from NBA Commissioner David Stern, who said rumors about the Kings’ talks with Anaheim were more than rumors.

Next was the decision by the Kings not to share financial market data with the team of professionals selected by the City Council to study the feasibility of our new entertainment and sports complex.

Then we saw the Kings playing games in "Royals" uniforms – supposedly to celebrate their history when the club was based in Rochester, N.Y., and Cincinnati from 1948 to 1972.

Last week, local media broke the story about a lawyer for the Kings gobbling up Web domains and name rights to the "Anaheim Royals," among other Southern California titles.

Now we have the Anaheim City Council preparing to take action on improvements to the city’s arena, where the as-yet-unofficial Anaheim Royals will play. "

The Maloof family received an extension from the NBA’s Board of Governors on the league’s March 1st deadline to file for relocation, giving them until Mid-April to file to move the team.

The Maloofs are expected to present their plan to the Board of Governors during the scheduled April meeting and at that point request permission to relocate to Anaheim.

As part of the process the team has already secured trademarks on several names including the Anaheim Royals and the Royals of Southern California.

The Anaheim City Council is planning to issue bonds to cover improvement costs on Anaheim’s Honda Center which would include construction of suitable NBA locker room facilities and possibly a practice facility for the team should it be granted permission to relocate.

The only real barrier for approval would be the buy-in of both the L.A. Lakers and the L.A. Clippers who already share the Southern California marketplace, however league sources say both teams have already made it clear with proper financial compensation they would not be opposed to a team in Anaheim as neither team really draws a huge amount of business from Anaheim and Orange County.

The Return of Michael Redd:  The Milwaukee Bucks got a familiar face back in the practice lineup yesterday. Sharp shooting guard Michael Redd practiced with his team yesterday for the first time in 14-months and was said to look good.

{AUTHOR_BOX}"Today was my first practice in 14 months," Redd said to Charles F. Gardner of the Journal Sentinel. "I pretty much played the whole practice. It was fun being out here today."

"The shot is there; it’s just short or long," Redd said jokingly. "One of my coaches teased me today and said, ‘You made the hard ones today and you missed the easy ones.’

"When you miss time, 14 months of playing, you’ve got to find that rhythm again. It’s one thing doing individual workouts, but you need to play 5-on-5 to get that rhythm.

"This was a huge step. We’ll see how the knee responds. I won’t play tomorrow. I think we’re targeting maybe Friday."

Redd opted to rehab in Ohio rather than be around his teammates, it was a mutual decision after Redd expressed concerns about the constant "when will he be ready questions" from the media and just wanted a chance to rehab without distraction.

Redd also said he took more time than projected as he wanted to make sure his surgically repaired knee was 100% and that he would have confidence in playing on it.

The Bucks have indicated Redd may play on Friday when the team heads to New York to play the Knicks.

Redd, a career 38.4% shooter from three, will play limited minutes, but according to Bucks’ head coach Scott Skiles, playing him will be about trying to win the Bucks remaining 13 games, not any loyalty to Redd.

The Bucks are currently 2 ½ games behind the 8th seeded Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference and have five home games and eight road games left on their schedule.

More Twitter:  HOOPSWORLD has launched a new Twitter module where we will be releasing more breaking news and insider-type information via Twitter. Make sure you are following all of our guys to insure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @AlexKennedyNBA, @jfleminghoops, @TheRocketGuy, @EricPincus, @joelbrigham, @alexraskinNBA, @stephenlitel, @TommyBeer and @YannisHW.

NBA Chats: There will be four NBA Chats today starting with my weekly NBA Rumors Chat at 11am EST. I’ll do my best to get to as many of your questions as possible. Salary Cap guru Larry Coon will host another Salary Cap Chat at 3pm EST. Larry’s chats fill up fast so get your questions in now. HOOPSWORLD rookie Mark Nugent will host his NBA chat later today at 5pm EST. Mark is one of our Newsline editors and covers the entire NBA. Senior NBA Writer Tommy Beer will host his NBA chat at 8pm EST. Tommy covers the Knicks and the Eastern Conference for HOOPSWORLD. You can always find the next chat here: Upcoming NBA Chats.


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