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NBA AM: To Extend or Not To Extend?
Posted By Steve Kyler On January 24, 2012 @ 9:40 am In All,Main Page,NBA | No Comments
To Extend Or Not To Extend: The NBA widened the window for teams to reach a long-term contract extension for the players drafted in 2008 NBA draft, giving teams and players until January 25th to reach a deal this season because of the NBA Lockout.
So far only Chicago’s Derrick Rose and Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook have reached deals; both receiving maximum dollars to insure they stay where they are.
There are a few other players that could get deals, and here is where things stand, listed in the order they were drafted.
#2 – Michael Beasley – Minnesota
Sources close to the process label the odds of a Beasley extension as low. Michael has been a solid player for the Wolves, but injuries have been an issue. It’s far more likely that a deal is made this summer after a stroll through restricted free agency happens before a monster payday on Beasley’s terms. Sources say his camp has had talks, but with rookie Derrick Williams in town and playing well, Beasley has hardly been the franchise-changing player he was projected to be coming into the NBA three years ago.
#3 – O.J. Mayo – Memphis
As we’ll cover shortly, it seems more likely that O.J. Mayo is traded than extended. It’s possible that the Grizz have heard the price tag and realize it’s time to move him simply because they cannot afford him with the monster deals given to Mike Conley, Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay and now Marc Gasol. The odds of an O.J. Mayo extension seem astronomically low.
#5 – Kevin Love – Minnesota
Expect Kevin Love to get a full max extension offer before the deadline tomorrow. The question is will he sign it? There had been reports of a four-year offer, which sources say was about addressing Love’s long-term concerns about the direction of the team, but at the end of the day the Wolves are prepared to offer Kevin every nickel that can be offered. The odds of a Love extension are very high, unless he thinks he can be named MVP this year which would allow him to get a larger deal next summer, but how realistic is that?
#6 – Danilo Gallinari – Denver
The Denver Nuggets have talked about an extension with Gallo, but it’s unlikely they are going to go all-in on him. It’s more likely the Nuggets ride out this season, issue a Qualifying Offer and see if they can get a marketplace-driven price. If Gallo’s camp wants a deal now it could be had, it would just mean a deal on lower side of the price scale, not the high side. The odd of an extension in the next 48 hours is low, but not completely out of the question.
#7 – Eric Gordon – New Orleans
There are reports that say Eric Gordon and his agent have talked with the Hornets about doing an extension, however because of the Hornets precarious ownership situation the final call on an extension will be made by David Stern, who is the acting owner of the Hornets. Sources say Eric’s next deal will likely be made by whatever incoming owner is named in the coming weeks and while extending Gordon is something the team wants to do, it may have to wait until the team is sold. The odds of an extension are not good, although it seems the numbers have been worked out so it’s just a question of will Stern green light the deal and saddle his new owner with a hefty contract or let the new owner make that call after he owns the team?
#9 – D.J. Augustin – Charlotte
The Charlotte Bobcats have made it clear that they will not be doing a contract extension for any of their players this year and that includes D.J. Augustin. The Bobcats will likely give Augustin a Qualifying Offer this summer and let the marketplace set his price. In part because the Bobcats are not in love with D.J. but also because the Bobcats are a team in transition, it depends on how the draft plays out and the team could look to upgrade. Extending D.J. seems very unlikely.
#13 – Brandon Rush – Golden State
The Warriors have talked about an extension with Brandon Rush, more to lock him in at a good price. Rush is not going to command a huge deal, but it seems the Warriors have at least talked about it out of respect to Rush. The odds of a deal seem low, but if Brandon wants security he could lower his price to a point that makes it favor the Warriors, that’s likely the scenario that gets something done.
#15 – Robin Lopez – Phoenix
The Suns have said there is “no basis” for an extension with Robin at this point. The two sides have talked about a deal, but according to Suns’ president Lon Babby, he just does not see anything happening. The Suns will issue Lopez a Qualifying Offer and try their hand at restricted free agency. The odds of a deal are almost non-existent.
#16 – Roy Hibbert – Indiana
The Pacers and Hibbert have talked about a new deal, but it seems where Roy’s camp places his value today is a little too high and a deal in the next 48 hours seems unlikely. Don’t read that to mean anything about Roy’s desire to remain a Pacer or the Pacers’ desire to keep Roy, as both sides say they will likely do a deal, just not now. It’s more likely a deal is reached after a trip through restricted free agency. The Pacers really want to stay flexible and have just $36 million on the books next summer where want to be in a position to add more players. Roy’s contract price will also be tied to how far this Pacers squad can go this season. A strong and dominating playoff run for the Pacers will go a long way to helping Roy get paid. Don’t expect an extension before the deadline.
#18 – JaVale McGee – Washington
JaVale wants an extension. However it’s HIGHLY unlikely he’ll get one. The Wizards are dreadfully bad, and word is no one on the roster is safe from trade speculation except for maybe John Wall. With just two wins on the season, there is almost no scenario in which anyone on the roster gets “rewarded” with a new deal. JaVale will likely get a Qualifying Offer next summer to see where the market values him, but given the lack of love Nick Young saw in free agency, McGee’s next deal may be far lower than anyone expects. Do not expect an extension for JaVale.
#21 – Ryan Anderson – Orlando
Ryan is playing out of his mind this season – despite an o-fer last night in Boston – and has exceeded expectations. Sources say the Magic have talked extension with Ryan and there is a 50/50 chance that he gets a deal in the next 48 hours. The question becomes how much will Orlando pay? The Magic have a history of overpaying players, so if a deal is reached what will the valuation be? If the Magic do not reach a deal with Anderson, they will issue a Qualifying Offer and look to match offers on the open market. The Magic have made it clear that Ryan is not going anywhere, so we’ll see if that happens now or in July.
#25 – Nicolas Batum – Portland
The Blazers and Batum have been talking new deal for several weeks, with the Blazers saying that reaching a deal was more about finding a deal that works for both. Batum has said he wants to remain in Portland and with just $41 million in cap commitments next year the Blazers have a choice to make: lock in Batum now or wait and see what assets can be acquired next summer and do a deal with Batum after a swing through restricted free agency. The odds of a deal are low, simply because the Blazers have cap space to play with next summer. There is no risk of losing Batum, so unless he gives them the home team discount do not expect a deal in the next 48 hours. Batum’s deal likely comes in July.
Keep in mind that even if a team and its player do not reach a deal before the end of business tomorrow, that does not mean much. The window teams have, gives them the chance to negotiate against themselves. Teams tend to overpay during this window.
Most teams would rather wait until this summer, issue a Qualifying Offer sheet and try and match a deal in restricted free agency and let the marketplace set the price.
The deals that get done during this window are either for players that are locks to receive Max money, or deals that tend to favor the team.
O.J.’s Future? For whatever reason the Memphis Grizzlies continue to shop O.J. Mayo, despite having a solid week for Memphis, Mayo continue to be a chip the Grizz are trying to cash and according to Chris Mannix of SI.com, part of the price tag for O.J. is a first-round draft pick.
Mayo has been averaging better than 25 minutes of playing time over the last week and has been scoring the ball extremely well, not only from the field but from deep (excluding last night’s 0-for-5 outing).
On the season, Mayo is 45.4% from the field, hitting 44% from NBA three and 80% from the foul line.
To put that in perspective Steve Nash on his career is 49% from the field, 42.9% from three and 90% from the line, which is considered rarified air for a guard. O.J. is nowhere close to Steve Nash in impacting a game, but his averages this season are impressive.
If the season ended today the Grizzlies would hold the four seed and open the playoffs with home court. The Grizz have won 7 straight games and seem to have found their groove, which O.J. has been a big part.
It’s unclear exactly why the Grizz would trade Mayo, but it is clear that the Grizz continue to entertain talks and its very likely O.J. is moved before the march 15ht trade deadline.
The Knicks And Dwight Howard: Yesterday a report from Steven A. Smith got the Magic faithful in an uproar, as Smith revealed that the Knicks and Magic may have talked about a deal involving Dwight Howard and bad Magic contracts heading to New York in exchange for Amar’e Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler.
While there is a lot of truth to the idea that every team in the league has taken Orlando’s temperature on what it would take to secure Howard, let’s be clear… there is nothing pending with the Magic involving Dwight Howard and anyone.
Second, Tyson Chandler cannot be traded until March 1st, as players who inked new contracts cannot be traded for 90 days from the date they signed their deal or March 1st, whichever occurs first.
Before Knicks fans get too excited about the idea, the Magic are not even shopping at this point. In fact sources close to the process label their stance as “barely listening” as everyone in the process knows Howard will not be traded until Magic ownership says he can be dealt.
Magic president Otis Smith has taken the stance that the Magic my wait out Howard and see if he will genuinely leave $30 million on the table.
The deal as Steven A. maps out would have the Knicks sending some $31.1 million in salary to Orlando this season, which includes four years and $83.2 million owed to Amar’e Stoudemire and four years and $55.4 million owed to Chandler. In short, $138 million moves to Orlando’s books in the deal as described.
Howard is scheduled to earn $18.091 million this season, meaning the Magic would have to pack in at least $9 million more in salaries to reach the minimum required to clear a trade. However the Magic would likely look to offload all their undesirable deals in the transaction meaning they’d want New York to take on at least $20 million in unwanted Magic deals, that would swing the deal to the maximum value allowed.
Not only would the move serve as a huge salary dump for Orlando, it would swing the Knicks back into Luxury tax land with a roster full of unfavorable Orlando deals.
While on the surface it seems like a smart move for the Knicks to try and pry Howard away, and if the Knicks could get him for just Stoudemire and Chandler that might be a good move for the Knicks, the problem is Orlando’s luggage would make a deal for Howard iffy at best. Considering the Knicks are not on Howard’s so-called “list” it’s unlikely that this deal see any real transaction.
The Magic continue to say there is no player in the league they’d consider trading Howard for at this point. When the trade deadline gets closer in 51 days that may change, for now dreams of Knicks deal seems like exactly that.
The truth of the matter is a Knicks deal only works for Orlando if can clear the books in the process because taking on $138 million worth of Knicks contracts on player on the wrong side of 29 is risky and unlikely.
This won’t be the last Howard rumor. Get comfortable; everyone is trying to make a deal.
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