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NBA At 2: Portland’s New Reality
Posted By Jason Fleming On December 21, 2010 @ 1:00 pm In All,NBA | No Comments
In today’s edition of the NBA At 2: The Portland Trail Blazers and Brandon Roy need to accept new realities…Is LaMarcus Aldridge an All-Star?…Phoenix Suns should have just stuck with Amar’e Stoudemire…NBA Chats.
Bill Ingram is travelling and will be back tomorrow.
Portland’s New Reality: It’s been a rough couple seasons for the Portland Trail Blazers. Their injuries have been well-documented, as has the decreased effectives of guard Brandon Roy after his latest menisectomy last spring. The injuries have torpedoed the once-bright expectations of not only Portland’s fan base but observers around the league.
This has led to much speculation about Portland’s future and some interesting rumors. Speculation has run rampant about Portland possibly trading Roy, but the reality is there is no market for him Portland is interested him. What does a team receive in return for a guard with four years beyond this one left on a max contract who may never be an All-Star caliber player? The only answer is deals that are even worse. Teams will not do Portland any favors. There won’t be a bevy of draft picks or a boatload of young talent being offered for the right to pay Roy $69.6 million for four years beyond this one. And it will be four years; that player option for $19.6 million is a guarantee to be picked up.
Even if the next CBA reduces those numbers, it’s still going to be proportionately the same deal and just as restrictive for the team.
Beyond this production question, there is also the point Roy is a Base-Year Contract player for this season. That makes it even more unlikely he gets moved, because he only counts as half his 2010-11 salary outgoing for Portland – $6.8 million – but the full amount incoming for the other team – $13.6 million. The deal still has to meet normal CBA requirements, meaning the salaries on both sides have to match within 125% + $100,000.
If somehow Roy is traded, it won’t be until after June 30th when his BYC status expires, which means under the terms of the new CBA, whenever that is agreed upon.
Roy is currently sitting out to rest his aching knees, and it’s interesting to note the Blazers have become a team with more ball movement in his absence. Part of this is out of necessity, but part of it is the team simply cannot allow Roy to be in so much control of the offense when he can’t do the same things he did in previous seasons.
Interestingly enough, Portland is 4-1 5-1 after last night’s win without Roy this season. Perhaps it’s time for him to adjust his game?
Let’s assume Roy will not be traded (safe bet, at least for a couple seasons). Let’s also assume his current game will be the norm from here forward, with flashes of the old Roy here and there. Roy will be part of this team, he’s still deserve to be a key part of the rotation, but he must adjust his game. He will need to accept the fact the offense should no longer be initiated by him alone – meaning defer to a real point guard, like Andre Miller – and he needs to analyze the offense and see where best he could fit in.
There has been a lot of talk about how Roy is better with a three-point threat beside him in the backcourt and how Miller is not that player. Perhaps, considering the new limitations, Roy should become that player. He has the talent and drive to become an excellent shooter, a consistent shooter, and if he could re-invent himself in that way the Portland Trail Blazers would be better for it.
Five Six games without Roy this season is a small sample size to be sure, but the results are still telling.
In Related – LaMarcus Aldridge Tearing it Up: In the late summer/early fall of 2009 when the Portland Trail Blazers were negotiating the extensions to the rookie scale contracts for Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge the world seemed to be in general agreement Roy is more valuable.
No one doubted Roy deserved a maximum contract, which he received. At the time many wondered why it took so long, but now we know with the news about his knees what the holdups were. The real discussion at the time was around how much to pay Aldridge. Less than Roy, sure, but how much less? They finally agreed upon a deal at roughly 20% less than Roy’s.
Inside and outside of Portland many still thought that was high. Aldridge has been criticized, probably overly so, because of his game his entire career. He’s been labeled soft, because despite his power forward position he relied more on finesse, shooting jumpers and not being a serious rebounding threat. Before this season, Aldridge was seen as the player Portland shouldn’t have committed so much money too.
My how things change.
With Roy’s injury Aldridge has stepped up to become a legitimate All-Star contender this season, even at the Western Conference’s crowded power forward position. His 19.1 points and 8.5 rebounds a game are both career-highs, and his 1.0 steals and 1.2 blocks a night match his previous highs. His shooting percentage has been down a tad, but that’s a reflection of becoming the focal point of Portland’s offense and defenses adjusting. Stopping Aldridge, not Roy, has become the primary need.
{AUTHOR_BOX}Still, Aldridge has responded, and even more emphatically in December. He has posted 12 double-doubles in 29 games – including four straight – and is averaging 20.1 points and 8.8 rebounds on 51% shooting in December.
Could Aldridge become an All-Star? In the West he has to compete with players like L.A.’s Pau Gasol, the other L.A.’s Blake Griffin, Dallas’ Dirk Nowitzki, New Orleans’ David West, San Antonio’s Tim Duncan, Houston’s Luis Scola, Memphis’ Zach Randolph, Minnesota’s Kevin Love, and Golden State’s David Lee. Cases could be made for any of those players, though Gasol and Nowitzki have to be considered locks to be wearing the West jersey in Los Angeles in February.
How does Aldridge stack up against that group? Leave your thoughts in the comments below!
Setting Suns? Saturday’s trades initiated by the Orlando Magic with the Washington Wizards and the Phoenix Suns have received quite a bit of coverage, but little of it has centered on why the Phoenix Suns made the deal.
Yes, they rid themselves of Hedo Turkoglu’s contract, so now paying it is Orlando’s issue (which is kind of amusing, since they wouldn’t pay that amount for him last summer), but at the same time look at their decisions since free agency began in 2010.
First, they wouldn’t guaranteed Amar’e Stoudemire a full contract, which was a big reason why he chose to then go to the New York Knicks. Had they guaranteed a full five years like New York, he might still be a Sun.
Instead the Suns decided to give five-year contracts to Josh Childress and Channing Frye, and four years to Hakim Warrick. The money given to Childress and Warrick was the money that would have gone to Stoudemire. Then they chose to acquire the longer contract of Turkoglu instead of keep Leandro Barbosa.
Really? All three of those moves were better than just paying Stoudemire? Sure, he’s had injury issues, but there is no question he is not only the best player in that group but he’s also light years better. It’s not like these are similar players being discussed. Stoudemire is an All-Star and a MVP candidate; the others are, well, not.
Now the Suns used the ending contract of Jason Richardson to bring in Vince Carter and the four years remaining on Marcin Gortat’s contract just to get rid of Turkoglu. Not only does that mean spending more this season, but to get out from under Carter’s $18.9 million he is owed next season they will have to cut him a $4 million check by June 30th of 2011.
All of these moves are directly related to their choice last summer not to guarantee Stoudemire’s contract for five years. The Suns are also not as good today as they were last season, another direct result of that decision.
Sure, hindsight is 20/20, but it’s a questionable string of decisions for the Suns in the past six months, especially when taken together as a whole.
NBA Chats: Senior writer Eric Pincus, based in Los Angeles and covering the Lakers and Clippers as well as the rest of the NBA, will take your questions at 4pm Eastern. Publisher Steve Kyler will take your questions on all the latest rumors Wednesday morning at 11am Eastern Time. All the upcoming chats can be seen here – and all the chat wraps are here.
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