NBA Chat With Bill Ingram 11/7/11

1. GarPax

   Mark Nugent thinks Hous need to retool. Fair deal: (H) K Martin to Chi for Asik, filler, maybe Char pick. Your opinion please

   • Bill Ingram

     Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to the chat! I hope you all remembered to “Fall Back.”Houston is certainly at a crossroads as a franchise. Free agency will be absolutely essential for them, and if they don’t land a starting center they are dead in the water. Marc Gasol is their prime target, of course, but when was the last time the Rockets got their prime target in free agency? As for your proposal, there are a couple of issues. First and foremost, Kevin has been told he’s the only untouchable player on the team. Second, while the trade you propose would be fantastic for the Bulls, it would be hugely disappointing for Houston. Kevin Martin is an all-star caliber guard, while Asik is a backup center. Perhaps Asik has potential for more down the road, but if you give up your star player for a future prospect it means they need to trade Scola and Lowry to playoff teams and completely start over. The Rockets aren’t prepared to do that just yet.

2. matt from Oz

   hi bill,
   just a trade thought.

   would a josh smith to the nets for brook lopez + outlaw (for money purposes mainly) maybe make sense for both teams?

   D12 has said he’d love to play with smith, and this would give the nets the best chance of obtaining D12 as a FA. Smith would be able to play the 4, and then could sign an amnestied C to get them through this season (if there is one!), like an Okur or Haywood. Troy Murphy even. Dwill and JSmoove would make some nice highlights too!

   atlanta would get a young solid C to pair with Horford and Outlaw can replace the amnestied Marvin Williams.

   thoughts? probably a long shot, and would totally depend on D12.

   • Bill Ingram

     That deal would be great for both sides if it played out just like that. If they dealt Lopez and then didn’t get Dwight it would be a catastrophe for the Nets. They would absolutely lose Deron Williams and be left with little else besides Josh to build around. I would love to see Dwight and Josh play together. There aren’t many lineups that excite me like that, and that would definitely have me DVR-ing the Nets while I’m at the Mavs/Rockets/Spurs/Thunder games. I have a really hard time seeing the Nets dealing Lopez without a guarantee that Dwight is coming, and that would be hard to come by. Also, I really like Troy Murphy, and he was a great player for Indiana – on and off the court. He could be an important part of a playoff team if we ever get this season going.

3. B-Man

   who do you feel will be geting more minutes behind lowry, dragic or flynn? and lets say for some reason hill or thabeet enters the season much improved and plays like roy hibbert did last season, do they have a good enough team?

   • Bill Ingram

     I like both players for different reasons. I think Flynn is going to be a great locker room presence for Houston, as he was in Minnesota. He’s a great guy and grounded in the real world. I think Dragic’s quickness and flair for the dramatic (that playoff game in San Antonio was something else!) may give him the edge. Still, if Flynn is finally healthy it could be a really interesting training camp. We know Kyle’s going to play 35+ minutes, so whoever makes the most of limited minutes will win the role.

4. Mutang

   Heres my question. I have breathed the NBA game for 25 years now, but have always loved the NFL just behind it. And guessing, I think the NFL is more popular in our country than the NBA; probably the NFL is more the American pastime than baseball. So with the NBA players being widely paid more than the NFL guys, even though the NBA is less popular, and on top of that they get the BRI? Do those less paid NFL players get any sort of BRI??????

   • Bill Ingram

     That’s a really interesting point you made. First of all, yes the NFL players get 48% of total revenue in their new deal with the NFL. That’s not like the NBA BRI, which allows the league to first deduct expenses before calculating the number. The NFL players get their cut before expenses. Back to your broader point. The NFL is the most popular sport in America, bar none. Nothing is even a close second. Baseball is still the nostalgic choice, and is as associated with the history of our country and just about anything else, including the founding fathers. When I think America, I think baseball. Baseball was even my first true love in the sports world. My mom’s company had a box in the Astrodome, so we went to games every once in a while. We also bought tickets and went fairly frequently. I saw Nolan Ryan and Mike Scott countless times, and never really watched the NBA until (H)Akeem Olajuwon was drafted by the Rockets. From that point on basketball was my only true love. I still enjoy baseball – went to tons of Cards games when I was in college in St. Louis and Mark McGwire was reshaping history – but the NBA has always been the game for me. The NFL? Well, I watched the Oilers a lot when Warren Moon was the QB, but when they left town I stopped following it altogether. When the Rams moved to St. Louis I started watching again, and loved Kurt Warner and a lot of the guys on that championship team. But then I graduated and moved to Orlando, Warner left, and I stopped watching again. That’s about the time Steve Kyler and I started covering Magic games together . . .and then HOOPSWORLD was born. Now I don’t have time to think about other sports . . .but I do know the NFL is king. But if the NBA season doesn’t happen, I won’t watch football. I’ll probably start watching college basketball, as we’ll no doubt be talking a lot about that in the coming months.

5. Peter

   Hey Bill! A lot of people are talking about the Amnesty Cut. Per ESPN, a lot good players could get cut by their team due to the length of their contracts. Is there a possibility that several amnesty cuts team up and help each other get their careers back on track? Baron Davis, Brandon Roy, R-jefferson, Rashard Lewis, Okur!

   • Bill Ingram

     I think Rashard Lewis is probably the most likely player to be amnestied from your list. Okur expires anyway, and the Jazz have already saved a month of his salary for this season. Davis has two years left and I’ve been told the Cavs won’t just pay him to go away. They have faith in Irving, but he only played a few games last season and was in high school before that. How much weight do you put on that young man’s shoulders right out of the gate? And Sessions is an option, but not a great one. He’s a good back-up, but if he’s starting you have issues. I’d also be shocked to see the Spurs amnesty Jefferson. They just don’t do business that way. They don’t pay players not to play. If the Wizards cut Lewis, though, you can bet he’ll wind up on a championship-caliber team. Who wouldn’t love to have a 3/4 who drops the three like few others do but can also put it on the floor, pass, and everything else? At the bargain price of league minimum, Miami, Dallas, the Lakers, San Antonio (needs front court help) . . .I can see all the contenders fighting for him. Maybe even OKC.

6. patrick

   Hi Bill, If the players are saying that the owners need to make cuts on the organizational side and no salaries, why can’t the owners propose that all players fly commercial, two to a room at an econo lodge, and no more roadtrip allowances. For Christ’s sake, the players are paid more than enough where they can pay for their own meals on roadtrips. Last year, I was flying out of Seattle and saw Sue Bird and mates waiting at the same security check point. Why do the guys need such pampering?

   • Bill Ingram

     Wouldn’t THAT be funny??? OK, we’ll make the organizational cuts . . .and you’re on your own for expenses. That would have to be part of the new CBA and you know the players wouldn’t go for that. But you’re right – if the NBA players were treated like the WNBA (or, heaven forbid, the D-League) players they would have a new appreciation for a great many things. I can tell you that NBA teams waste a LOT of money on travel, expenses, etc. They book a lot of things last minute and stay in the most expensive hotels. I would love to have an NBA team bring me in to look at their books and figure out how to save them millions of dollars each year. I wager I could do it in about 24 hours. Easily.

7. Giovanni Antonini

   What do you think of the Kyrie Irving & Tristian Thompson combo? Are the Cavs on the right track?

   • Bill Ingram

     I think Irving’s pedigree speaks for itself. You convince Coach K to bring you in, it shows what kind of person, what kind of competitor you are. You look at Shane Battier, Corey Maggette, Elton Brand, JJ Redick . . .some hard-nosed players and three of those are true glue guys for their teams, as well. The Cavs are supremely confident in Kyrie. With Thompson, it says something that he played at UT, where some of the great NBA players went – Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge, for example – but he has also played overseas and competed with the Candadian team, so he comes with quite a wide range of basketball experience beyond just prep school and college. They will need some time to adjust to the NBA, especially since they didn’t get summer league or all of the work that goes in between that and training camp, but it’s hard not to be REALLY optimistic about the Cavs going forward.

8. Lee

   We aren’t having a season. It’s just not happening. What are the chances the players organize their own league? Also what happens if contracts are voided?

   • Bill Ingram

     I have to say I’m right there with you. The tone of the “negotiations” isn’t good, and if the players don’t accept this deal it only gets worse. The owners have most of the leverage and the players haven’t figured that out yet. The elite players are independently wealthy without the NBA because of their endorsements, but the rank and file need a season to start or they’re going to be REALLY hurting financially. That said, I think it would take a long time for players to organize their own league, and it would require a lot of outside help. They don’t have a clue what it takes to schedule venues, arrange transportation and lodging, all the myriad details that have to line up precisely. That, and they would have a hard time getting everyone to show up when and where they’re supposed to. Just look at all the charity games going on – they announce one group of players and it winds up being different players. Talk about herding cats . . .the players would be far better off taking the owners’ WORST deal than trying to form a league of their own. As for contracts, if they get voided then everyone’s a free agent. That won’t happen.

9. Steve

   As a long-suffering Hawks fan who watched ex-GM Billy Knight spend lottery pick after lottery pick on wing players while holes at PG and C went unfilled, I have a general question about the best way to rebuild a losing team. Granting the merits of “best-player-available” drafting philosophies with early draft picks, isn’t it preferable in general for teams to nail down the PG and C positions, since wing players are a bit easier to come by?

   • Bill Ingram

     I think it depends on the draft – some are very deep in one type of player versus another. In 2010 you wanted to look at big men, with players like Greg Monroe, Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins, Ed Davis, Patrick Patterson on the board. If you needed a point guard and didn’t have the top overall pick, you were going big, nonetheless. You don’t take Eric Bledsoe above Favors just because you need a PG. In 2009, you could get a quality PG anywhere in the top 15. Steph Curry, Brandon Jennings, Jonny Flynn, Ricky Rubio, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague . . .good draft for PG’s. For me, it depends. Houston went big last summer with Morris, and he was the last thing they needed – another PF. They should have gone Kawhi Leonard, as they need a three to play behind Chase Budinger. Leonard has a lot of potential once he gets into an up-tempo system, which the Rockets have. So to me it depends . . .most of the time I go best player, but in some situations, especially once you get out of the lottery, you’re better off considering which positions you need to fill.

10. Ricky (Chico, CA)

    Doesn’t teams buying equity stakes in their own TV networks make it impossible to decipher the BRI and fairly share revenues among teams? Also will head coaches and general managers get paid if there is not a season?

    • Bill Ingram

      Yes, coaches and GMs get paid, which is why some teams waited until later in the summer to fill coaching vacancies and why some still haven’t hired assistant coaches. You notice the Blazers haven’t hired a GM yet, though they have interviewed all of the top candidates outside of probably Larry Harris. As for your TV question – you have touched on one of the MANY reasons why the players don’t believe the owners are being entirely genuine in talking about revenue . . .and they’re right. The NBA has many revenue streams, and only some are being fairly included in the BRI discussion. There’s a lot of cloak-and-dagger going on, and it has prevented a real trust from taking hold in these talks.

11. Matt (UK)

    What areas do you think the Nuggets need to address most when we finally get a season? What minutes and numbers do you think Faried will put up in his first year?

    • Bill Ingram

      I like Faried alot . . .could be a Dennis Rodman-like rebounder. Not sure that will happen immediately, but he has to potential. The biggest areas the Nuggets need to address are power forward and shooting guard. I think it’s safe to assume Afflalo will be back, but with Kenyon Martin, JR Smith and Wilson Chandler all in China, the Nuggets have some work to do. There are plenty of options, with Carl Landry being a likely candidate at the four, so I think Denver will be fine. Also, if China sends Chandler and Smith back early, as Marc Stein reported last week, I think they do everything they can do to keep Chandler, which takes care of the two spot.

12. Steve

    With the NCAA season almost here, what are your final four picks, winners, and eventual champion? Thanks!

    • Bill Ingram

      While I would love to pretend that I’m an expert on NCAA basketball – and will be in a couple of months if the lockout continues – I have no clue. Fortunately, my good friend Yannis Koutroupis is HOOPSWORLD’s NCAA expert, and he knows the teams inside and out.

      Here’s a link to his recent story, which will answer your question.

13. Shad

    hypothetically speaking if an agreement isn’t reached for lets say 5 months, would there still be a draft? and if so how would the league decide draft order?

    • Bill Ingram

      The NHL lost the entire 2004-05 season, and I expect that if the same happens to the NBA we’ll see a similar draft resolution. The NHL lottery was done using a weighted system, where teams that had the most playoff success and highest recent lottery picks had a better shot at landing a top pick in the next year’s draft. I suspect the NBA will follow that model rather than trying to re-invent the wheel. As for what the new CBA will look like, the NHL and NFL are so different from the NBA that I don’t think it makes sense to spend too much time looking at theirs in anticipation that the NBA will have something similar.

14. dyrese

    mj is so competitive that hes become a hardline owner just so the bobcats can be competitive.With him being the best ever shouldnt he be trying get a fair deal for the players he left behind to carry the torch or he simply a oppertunist trying to use the lockout to improve his team?

    • Bill Ingram

      That’s actually a really interesting point . . .that Jordan is trying to level the playing field rather than be a very hypocritical penny-pincher. I hadn’t thought of it that way. Don’t be surprised if I write something about that this week. Jordan as a player was all about winning, and would step on anyone who got in his way. Perhaps this is his way of doing that as an owner?

15. Brian

    i read union wants to meet with league b4 weds to negotiate more, is this likely? any chance the union meetings b4 weds lead to them just accepting this basic offer & then negotiating final details based off of the 49-51 range? if union doesnt accept this offer i think the season is over because they will never accept 47%.

    • Bill Ingram

      The union wants to meet with its members . . .and from what I’m hearing it’s more about making sure everyone is on board with *not* taking the current offer. Of course, the offer only gets worse from here. The Owners are going to win in the end. If the players can get a 50/50 or a 49-51 split, they should take it while they can.

16. Bugsy in Australia

    In every workplace negotiation I’ve been involved in, the staff reps present a position to Managment, negotiate then take any new position back to the staff to vote on. Why is this not happening? Why/how can Hunter say no without consulting those he represents? or indeed why cant the owners vote independantly on a players proposal?

    • Bill Ingram

      Great question, but easier said than done. Not all of the players are actively engaged in the talks, with many keeping up by reading others’ twitter feeds. On top of that, the players are not as unified as they would have you believe. Over the weekend many players were tweeting that they just wanted to play basketball, and thought a 50/50 BRI deal was just fine. What you’re going to see happening this month (players get their final checks for last season on Nov. 15th) is the elite players saying they should hold out for a better deal and the rank and file saying it’s time to play. Hard for Hunter to represent both sides, and I believe the ones who want to play will be in the majority. They can’t afford to lose a season.

17. Aristotle

    Hey Bil,
    I asked Lang this question and wanted to get your thoughts…
    D Howard for J.Smith & J.Johnson. I guess I was trying to see it value wise, but Lang advised Johnson’s contract with his age would make it a no go.
    Also, what about a Deron Williams & Brooke Lopez for Smith &Johnson, and maybe a Hinrich? Strictly hypotheticals

    • Bill Ingram

      I have to say I agree with Lang . . .no team wants to touch Joe’s contract. You know he’ll make $22 million in the final year? That’s almost Michael Jordan money, and Joe isn’t even the best player at his position! Otis Smith has made some really bad trades, but I can’t see even him making that one. Imagine having both Arenas and Johnson on your payroll – the two worst contracts in the league. Contracts aside, if the Magic still had Gortat, I could envision this. Again, contracts aside. Josh Smith, Gortat, Jameer, Johnson . . .not a terrible mix. But take away Dwight and you’re playing . . .ummmm . . .Ryan Anderson at center? Brandon Bass? And they have no money to add a center, either.

18. Andrew

    Do you think GSW can/will land a big (NeNe) in FA (Whenever the lockout ends)? And do you think they have enough talent to slip into the playoffs? And will Curry be an Allstar?

    • Bill Ingram

      Hard to see them landing Nene . . .they like Biedrins, and when he’s healthy he’s not a bad starting center. I think the talent is there, and they certainly have enough offense to win every night – the question is whether or not the leadership is there. They made some personnel moves/draft picks in Amundson and Udoh to really try and establish a defensive mentality, but I’m not sure Mark Jackson has the experience to change the mentality of the team. That’s the big gamble. The guys were really starting to respond to Keith Smart, and now he’s gone and a rookie coach who has never even been an assistant is in place. We rarely see a rookie coach have great success in his first year. I think Curry will be an All-Star, yes. He may have to wait until Steve Nash and Jason Kidd retire and Chris Paul heads East, but he will make the All-Star team sooner rather than later, I think.

19. Joe

    Will new CBa make it where. Howard,d-will, cp3 stay on current teams and if so if ur magic gm what moves will u make to contend again ?

    • Bill Ingram

      That’s the idea . . .Owners want to limit Bird Rights and put a structure in place that allows the team who has a player to have a serious advantage in keeping him . . .even more than they have now. I have to say next that I am GLAD I’m not the Magic’s GM (Otis Smith). But then again, if I were I would never have broken up the Eastern Conference Championship team. Right now the Magic have only two players who are in demand around the league – Dwight Howard and JJ Redick. On top of that, they are probably $20 million over the next salary cap and have just 10 players under contract. Unless they amnesty Arenas (which we’re told they won’t do), they don’t have much room to do anything at all. The Magic are between a rock and a hard place . . .

20. rishabh

    Hey Bill!
    What moves do the mavs need to make to repeat? They definitely need to resign chandler, barea, and stevenson. At this point I feel like they could let Butler walk if he demands too much money, but stevenson plays rugged D and brings that mental toughness. I love caron, but are there any other options that the mavs can bring in?

    • Bill Ingram

      The real question is how much money will Cuban be allowed to spend? He will bring back Chandler and Barea, though it seems Rudy Fernandez will replace Stevenson. I don’t understand that move, frankly. I don’t see how they’re better with Rudy, who will spend more time complaining and threatening to go back to Spain than he will on the court. Carlisle won’t put up with that. My thinking is this – the Mavs really need Butler back. They were much better at the beginning of the season before he got hurt . . .blowing everyone out. I think if they come back with Chandler, Barea and Butler they will repeat as champs. They should spare no expense to do so . . .and we know Mark will spend, spend, spend.

21. Billy M

    do GMs still communicate during the lockout? players seem to as do owners. I’m just wondering if they could be discussing hypothetical trades like some of us do being the scenes

    • Bill Ingram

      Absolutely! Some are on vacation, interestingly, but there are plenty of GMs throwing around hypotheticals. Keep in mind, if the lockout ends teams will likely only have a week or two to get their rosters in order. The teams that have a lot of work to do are working hard to get deals in place once the lockout lifts.

22. jaimeson Trocheck

    Are the Cavs in the worst position if there is no season & draft lotto is last 3 yrs combined record? Very deep draft, but 2 60 win seasons take them out the loop. Could be a major blow to rebuilding process.

    • Bill Ingram

      That would stink, for sure, but there really is no reason to be too concerned just yet. The NBA has no criteria in place for a draft with no season, and if the use the NHL model the Cavs would benefit from not having high draft picks over the last three years, as well.

23. Brian

    My question is that if the players were getting 57%, but having 8% withheld in escrow and never received that 8% back in any year of the prior CBA but this year, they were in effect making only 49% with this past year being the exception, how is 50-50 unfair if they are guaranteed that 50%?

    • Bill Ingram

      Exactly, and what if the Union doesn’t hold out the 8%? The players should take the deal . . .it’s not going to get any better, and it’s not as bad as the rhetoric would suggest. This is ego versus ego . . .if hunter and the Players could set ego aside (and listen to their agents) they would know this is not so bad. That’s it for me for now . . .but I will check in throughout the day to see if I missed any latecomers. Have a great week!

24. Trevor

    If what you are saying about Orlando not using the amnesty on Gilbert are they planning on using it on hedo?

    • Bill Ingram

      I wondered that . . .but it would be kind of silly. He took a reduction to make one trade work already, and honestly, we all know the first mistake Smith made was to not re-sign Hedo in the first place. Hedo did have a bad year last year, but he was a huge reason why they made it to the Finals and might be again . . .if the rest of the pieces fit. If you drop Hedo, you lose a great deal more than just one player. You also lose a primary playmaker.

25. PAUL

    what is decertification

    • Bill Ingram

      It means the players would disband the union. All contracts would be voided and we would essentially be starting from scratch. Some players favor this because they want a deal done and Billy Hunter isn’t taking the deal that’s on the table.

26. frank

    Fill in the blank

    Jonas
    Ed Davis, Bargnani
    Harrison Barnes/Sam Young
    Derozan
    ?

    • Bill Ingram

      Steve Nash! Free agent next summer…why not Canada? I actually think Jerryd Bayless could be the answer long-term. He has had flashes of brilliance, just never a consistent opportunity.