NBA Chat With Jason Fleming 10/10/11

Chat with HOOPSWORLD editor Jason Fleming about any and all things NBA on Monday at 8pm Eastern Time. Lockout? Rumors? Possible trades? Anything hoops is fair game. Feel free to leave questions in the queue anytime.

  1. mateo

    if the superstar players are really sincere to the welfare of their fellow players, why dont they accept a pay cut and increase the min salary for the mid, low tier players and other team personnel? with these, the flow of wealth within the nba will be reasonbly maximized.
    also, i think 50/50 revenue share is fair bec like any other business, owners take a lot of risk in building a franchise. it is they who burdens the loss when their prized player gets injured and pay luxury tax for the players’ signing. i think the players are asking too much without thinking that they dont have any financial investment in a franchise except for their talent. indeniably players are paid with great amount of money as compared to an average american who likewise render their service to their employers… what do u think?

    • Jason Fleming

      I don’t entirely disagree with this sentiment. However, I saw someone put it something like this today: If you worked for one of the few companies that was making money during the worst economic downturn in recent history, would you accept a pay cut? The NBA had fantastic success last season, why SHOULD they accept pay cuts, which is what a reduction in the percentage of BRI amounts to? I wouldn’t. I’d be angry. And if I was in a union with others in the same position and our labor agreement was up, I wouldn’t stand for it either.

      I personally am also not benevolent enough to take a pay cut to my salary just to give someone with a lesser skill set a bigger piece of the pie. But that’s me. Others may feel differently. Heck, I would feel differently if these minimum salaries weren’t more than I make in 15 years.

  2. cj

    now this trade might never happen but what do you think of this. ATL gets jefferson,favors,hayward,duhon,reddick, and hedo.UT gets smith,williams,zaza,howard, and anderson.ORL gets milsap,johnson,hinrich, and okur.

    • Jason Fleming

      I can’t picture it like that, so for others like me that like pictures, here is what cj is proposing:

      Atlanta
      Outgoing: Kirk Hinrich, Joe Johnson, Zaza Pachulia, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith
      Incoming: Al Jefferson, Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, Chris Duhon, J.J. Redick, Hedo Turkoglu

      Utah
      Outgoing: Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur
      Incoming: Josh Smith, Marving Williams, Zaza Pachulia, Dwight Howard, Ryan Anderson

      Orlando
      Outgoing: Chris Duhon, J.J. Redick, Hedo Turkoglu, Dwight Howard, Ryan Anderson
      Incoming: Paul Millsap, Joe Johnson, Kirk Hinrich, and Mehmet Okur

      Think I got them all right there.

      Now, to answer – you can remove the “might” from “never happen.” No way Orlando does that deal. Not even close.

  3. cj

    blake,odom, and barnes for sessions, varejao, and graham?

    • Jason Fleming

      Cleveland isn’t going to trade their starting center for a bunch of reserves.

  4. Shad

    If the BRI is lowered to 50/50 does that mean the salary cap will be lower next season??

  5. Sergio

    How’s it going Mr. Fleming? I get the feeling that Dwyane Wade is EXTREMELY UNDERRATED. It seems like when people talk about who the best is, who they would build a team around, or who the MVP would be, I here names like Rose, Howard, Kobe, CP3, Lebron and KD. What about Wade? Great shot blocker, solid defender, ball hawk, CLUTCH, prolific scorer and tremendous leader. Does everything for his team. I feel like he rarely gets any credit for being (IMO) the top 1-3 player in the league? Your thoughts? By the way, how you feeling about my Kings this (hopefully) season? I hope Evans comes back to silence some critics. Here anything on what he’s working on this off season?

    • Jason Fleming

      I have nothing to add to that other than I agree. As amazing as it sounds, Dwyane Wade IS underrated. Oh wait, I do have something – he actually took less money than Chris Bosh and LeBron James, just to ensure they could sign Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller, and Joel Anthony.

      As for Kings, I think they will be better and Evans will be very good, but they need a coach who demands more attention to defense and detail to make the next step. I just don’t think this super young team is the right fit for Paul Westphal.

  6. devonte wilson

    it seems to me that more than a few people have taken a liking to the monta ellis to nyk scenario, but im not sold that the warriors would even look our way with the slim assets we have to give them i mean is landry and chancey enough or maybe that and some draft picks. its hard for me to believe that monta would be more inexpensive than chris paul when the guy goes out there and puts up 24 pts a game but if they do start talking (after the lockout is over) what would it take for a deal to get down between the nyk and the warriors?

    • Jason Fleming

      I don’t see what the Knicks could offer the Warriors either, honestly. Ellis makes $11 million per season for the next three years, which for his productions is relatively cheap. I doubt the Warriors would want Billups instead, who, while his contract expires after this season makes $3.2 million more this year. And give they have Stephen Curry, Fields doesn’t really fill a need for them. Ellis would be fantastic on the Knicks, I just don’t see what they could offer GS. Plus, I do think the Warriors want to wait and see how things go under Mark Jackson before they go the “trade your leading scorer” route.

  7. devonte wilson

    if the suns are open to shopping robin lopez, a guy that was not productive last season, how much is he worth in a trade. do you give the drafts picks for him or a role player that is far more productive than he is. its hard for me to believe that he’s worth alot or a chunk of talent so what do u give up?

    • Jason Fleming

      Lopez makes $2.9 million this season, so unless a team is under the cap or has a trade exception under the new CBA draft picks won’t cut it in trade. I really don’t think his value is that high. No one is going to trade for Lopez and make him their starter, so they won’t offer much in value. Since the Suns need a defensive player in the middle anyway, why not keep him?

  8. tony

    Deal or no deal tonight?

    • Jason Fleming

      No deal. Too much stuff to get through. If they get one done this week I’ll be surprised, though I am more optimistic than I was on Sunday morning.

  9. Bilal Swagidiqui

    So let’s say if the entire season is canceled, how will the 2012 NBA Draft class be ordered?

    • Jason Fleming

      No one can answer that – it would have to be defined in the final agreement. Many have opined they would do something similar to what the NHL did in 2005. Here’s a basic explanation of what was done via Wikipedia (I can’t vouch for 100% accuracy, but it’s close enough).

  10. Steve

    Hi Jason,
    Realistically, what year could we expect Blazers to win the championship, if things break reasonably well?

    • Jason Fleming

      Well, I don’t see it happening in 2012, if that’s what you are asking. And after 2012 Raymond Felton and Marcus Camby, two starters, are free agents. Gerald Wallace is a free agent in 2013. If they don’t come up with a replacement for Felton, or give him a new deal assuming he does end up being a good fit, this version of the Blazers may never win one. Point guard and center are the most difficult positions in the NBA to fill, so unless they have plans for both of those I don’t see it happening.

  11. Alex rosen

    Why did the NBA and NBAPA wait till the last second to finally start negotiating? Its too late to solve all these problems in one day and they didn’t recognize that?

    • Jason Fleming

      That is a question I cannot answer. The only possible reason I can come up with is each side hoped the other would blink, when if they had been paying attention for the past two years we’ve clearly been headed to this very place. If they expected the other side to roll over, they have been completely deceiving themselves.

  12. Steve

    Jason,
    Why won’t people face reality about B Roy?
    His knees are really shot and he has maybe one or two much diminished years left. Nobody can play pro ball with no meniscus in both knees.

    • Jason Fleming

      “People” don’t need to face it – I think most people do understand this. I am less convinced Roy understands yet he needs to change his game.

  13. BigDJHD

    Could Dwight Howard get traded before the season starts?

    • Jason Fleming

      Yes, he COULD. But he won’t be. Orlando has no interest in trading Howard right now.

  14. Olan

    If the lock out ends soon, what kind of moves do you see the blazers making?

    • Jason Fleming

      They will re-sign Oden and sign Nolan Smith, giving them 14 players under contract (Chris Johnson and Earl Barron are not fully guaranteed). If Patty Mills signs his Qualifying Offer (again), the roster is full, but they need to go after another big man, a veteran they can rely on if necessary. Other than that, not much.

      Oh, maybe they will find a GM. That would be helpful.

  15. mike

    who will be the knicks starting center in their first game?

  16. Scott

    Say, by chance, this thing gets done tonight. What kind of free agent/trading type period can we expect? As a Pacers fan, they finally have the cap space to make some moves. I just hate to see them rushed into something stupid or overpay someone.

    • Jason Fleming

      It will be crazy. If you follow the NFL you know their free agency period a few months ago was a harried mess, and that even began before training camps opened. With the NBA, if a deal gets done, there will be a rush to lose as few games as possible, so free agency and training camp may be going on at the same time. Insanity.

      Indy is lucky in that they have one clear need – power forward – and there are power forwards worth paying on the market. As long as they remind themselves PF is where they need to spend the money, they will be fine.

  17. Steve

    Jason,
    If healthy, isn’t a starting five of Felton, Matthews, Wallace, LA and Camby pretty darn solid?
    That leaves some fairly good bench guys too.

    • Jason Fleming

      Absolutely it is. But you left that caveat on there…”if healthy”. History tells us that lineup will only play, at best, 75% of the games (based on Camby’s track record alone). There’s no disputing Portland’s talent on paper, but they need a couple more big men up front they can rely on to player starter’s minutes if necessary. Right now it’s just Chris Johnson and Earl Barron, both of whom seem capable…but are you ready to rely on them? If healthy this team should challenge the Thunder for the division championship. If not, they could fall out of the playoffs.

  18. John

    Can you give me a projected statline of tyreke evans this year as well as your prediction on how the overall roster will fare in the competitiive west?

    • Jason Fleming

      The Kings will be better, but in the lottery again. For Evans, I’ll say 21 points, five assists, five rebounds, a steal, and a block. He’ll be much better once he doesn’t have to masquerade as a point guard.

  19. Tessa

    What happens to the player’s contracts if the whole season is lost? Does Greg Oden become an unrestricted free agent or do the blazers get another chance at resigning him?

    • Jason Fleming

      For players under contract, 2011-12 money simply disappears. That’s a different question than the one on Oden, who isn’t under contract but has that outstanding Qualifying Offer. The answer to that is…it depends. It would have to be negotiated into the next CBA that teams could get another chance at keeping their own restricted free agents, because simply going by the rules other contracts would abide by you are right – he’d become unrestricted. In that case Portland would still hold his Bird Rights (as their own free agent after three or more years), if Bird Rights are kept in the next CBA.

      I would guess both free agent provisions stay, and issued Qualifying Offers would be kept for the next free agency period, but right now that’s just an assumption.

  20. Tye

    Hello jason, even if the knicks sign nene or marc gasol do you see the knicks winning champ anytime soon?

    • Jason Fleming

      I don’t. I think spending a bunch of money on a center would be a serious mistake, because it would mean they are relying on getting lucky in the draft for a point guard. With Mike D’Antoni’s offense, you need a very smart, very capable point guard. Maybe Toney Douglas or Iman Shumpert will develop into that player.

      Then again, see my other comments on the Knicks. They won’t have money to sign Nene or Gasol, let alone a top-tier point guard. That’s just reality when you pay two players $39.9 million a season.

  21. Steve

    Jason,
    It kind of seems like the NBA teams should not have signed any players past the old CBA. Now, they are bound to those contracts while trying to negotiate something less. Tricky spot to be in.
    With no contracts on the books they could have started fresh, new draft, much lower salaries, most of same players in league, much more profit.

    • Jason Fleming

      It’s hard to say, really, because it depends on the details. Take the Dallas Mavericks, for instance. They spent $88.1 million last season on salaries and have been well into luxury tax territory for a long time. In fact, being so far in has allowed them the flexibility to bring in players like Shawn Marion, Caron Butler, and Tyson Chandler, because when the opportunity came up they had pieces they could use to make a deal. You get there by using all your exceptions, by bringing in more than you send out in trade, and by extending your own rookies to bigger deals. If all of those rules stay the same in the next CBA, I would argue teams over the cap already are in a better position, because they have more flexibility.

      At the other end of the spectrum is a team like Sacramento. They have $30.2 million committed for 2011-12 to eight players. Depending on where the cap lands they still have to fill out a roster, but they could have $27 million to spend, or only $20 million.

      One can really make an argument for both sides.

  22. devonte wilson

    i say the knicks sign aaron gray, earl clark, undrafted rookies: juylan stone, malcolm thomas and call it a wrap for free agency this year. the rookies are for youth, length, size the vets are to add to the role players already there. do you see where im going with this?

    • Jason Fleming

      Where you are going is maintaining as much cap space as possible for 2012, yes?

      Here’s the deal though. No matter what, the Knicks have $39.9 million committed to Amar’e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony in 2012-13. They also have guaranteed deals for Iman Shumpert, Renaldo Balkman, and Toney Douglas, adding up to $45 million or so. If the sides end up agreeing to a 50-50 BRI split, the cap could move down to around $51 million (-ish). It’s going to be very hard to get a third star like that.

  23. devonte wilson

    why dont the knicks and the fans realize we dont need another star to win a championship and we need is people to step thats on the roster now players dnt stop developing right?

    • Jason Fleming

      I agree with you. The Knicks have their stars – now they need more players who fill in the gaps around the stars. The defensive big man and wing, the outside shooter, the steady point guard. That’s what they need to be successful.

  24. Jeremy

    The players and owners have met the last two days, are they closer to an agreement than they were a month ago? Do you have a prediction of when the lockout will end? How many games are we looking at being cancelled?

    • Jason Fleming

      Well, today they supposedly agreed on a reduced Mid-Level Exception, so that’s a good thing. And they are closer on their agreement of the splitting of BRI, so that’s also better. (I do think the last little bit will be a significant negotiation though.) Today I am optimistic and I’ll say the lockout ends in a couple weeks, meaning probably no cancellations, but a tighter schedule. Tomorrow I may go back to being pessimistic.