NBA Chat With Jason Fleming 10/31/11

1. Matt from Australia

   Hey Jason, latest lockout breakdown is a killer, really hoped we’d have an agreement this weekend.

   Assuming there is eventually a season, what do u see happening with Troy Murphy? Is he a possible cheap fix for teams in need of a C who stretches the floor for their PF, i.e. heat, blazers, hawks? Or is he cursed to become an end of the bench minute man?

   How did he not start, let alone get no minutes at all in the playoffs, for the C’s after the Perkins trade?

   Hard to believe a nightly double double machine with a solid 3pt shot has fallen so far out of favor.

   • Jason Fleming

     I think a lot of it has to do with system and Murphy never had a chance to learn in Boston. I do think some team will pick him up for relatively cheap and he’ll be solid. All those teams you mentioned, plus others, would be better with Murphy’s offense.

2. simon

   Happy Halloween!!! does jameer nelson have a better chance in improving on a different team? how about this:

   Orl gets odom/barnes/walton
   La Lakers get nelson/bass/qrich

   worked on trade machine.

   • Jason Fleming

     I really don’t think the Magic would be interested in trading Nelson and Bass in a deal where the players they get back are less effective. Great deal for the Lakers though.

3. Burt Russel

   If you will become the coach of the twolves, who would prefer to start Beasly or D.Williams?Why?

   • Jason Fleming

     I wouldn’t make that choice – the players would decide it for me in training camp. Unlike other positions on the team, that spot would be wide open and the player who performed better in practice (meaning drills, scrimmages, film work, weight room, etc.) would be my starter. I have a strong feeling that player would be Williams.

4. tony

   They are far too close to not make a deal soon. Deal in the next two weeks?

   • Jason Fleming

     I’ll say they come to an agreement in November, but I don’t know that it will be soon enough to play games on Christmas.

5. Tessa

   As a life long Blazer fan, Brandon Roy has emerged for obvious reasons as my all time favorite. Every report that I have read about the new amnesty clause says that Roy is the most obvious recipient of the clause. As you are a fellow Blazer fan is there any way that you can see the Blazers holding on to Roy? And if they do give him the axe how should us fans go about forgiving the front office?

   • Jason Fleming

     IF the Blazers axe Roy, you have to look at it this way: The front office is convinced he will never again produce like the All-Star that earned that max contract. And if they didn’t axe him and he didn’t produce, that contract will hamstring the franchise for years to come. Basically, it would be a poor decision for the franchise – financially and competitively – to keep Roy at that price point if they can get around it. Don’t think of it as needing to forgive the front office; thank Roy for the years he did produce, congratulate him on the work of him and his agent to get the deal, and respect the front office for acknowledging what has to happen. It’s tough because Brandon is a great guy and has done some great things in Portland, but if he can’t do those things anymore then it’s a decision that has to be made. That choice, of all potential players to face an amnesty cut, will absolutely, 100% hurt the most.

     That said, as I wrote in another answer, I’m not convinced they need to go out and use the amnesty on Roy immediately. If they have a year to think about, I say do it.

6. Olan

   I recently had a mini argument with Hollinger via twitter about how using the amnesty clause immediately on Roy wasnt such a no-brainer as he put it. If the Blazers do have at least two seasons to decide, should they take a wait and see approach or do what Hollinger says and cut him as soon as the deal is reached?

   • Jason Fleming

     I’m torn on this. I think it really depends on what Portland can gain by cutting him. Roy is on the books for $15 million this season, so even if they cut him they are still at just under $60 million – so they are in the same boat as before, with only being able to add via exceptions. Of course, if the piece makes the final deal that puts restrictions on lux tax teams…they have to take that into account. But then again, will they find a player better than Roy – even a not-All-Star Roy – with the MLE? Highly doubtful. Plus, if they have the time…why not give it a shot? Why not see if Roy can be that guy again? I don’t think the can, but I think he can be killer off the bench if he embraces the role. Trouble is, if he IS killer in that role, do you keep paying him max money? I think it’s a tough call, but if they have the time and Allen is willing to pay tax, then I’m with you – give him a shot.

7. Kyle

   Hey Jason, if the new CBA restricts spending, would a team like LAL be at an unfair disadvantage with Kobe making so much more than any other superstar? Should they be punished because he’s still a max player after 14 years? I think they should only count max veteran players’ salary against the cap/tax up to a certain amount (say the max amount for a 8th year player or something) because as it is you can sign LeBron, Mike Miller, and Udonis Haslem for less than Kobe. How can LA compete once Kobe’s salary cracks $30mil?

   • Jason Fleming

     I’m guessing you are referring to luxury tax teams not being able to participate in sign-and-trades or use the MLE, right? They would be put at a disadvantage, yes, because they have $91.1 million committed to 2011-12 for 11 players and $91.6 million next year for eight players.

     Should they be punished for building a dynasty and paying players that have brought them titles so they could bring them more titles? For keeping a rabid fan base happy? No, I don’t think they should. Originally I was a fan of the penalties, but after further consideration I’ve changed my mind. It’s a ruse by the owners to effectively create a cap where the vast majority of owners will not cross. The Lakers normally don’t care, but if suddenly they can’t add a veteran a year, they will have problems.

     I also don’t think only counting a max amount against the cap would ever fly. If they did that, why even bother with a cap and tax at all?

8. cj

   What do you expect from the rockets this year under Kevin Mchale?

   • Jason Fleming

     I think the Rockets’ roster still needs some tweaks and they have a big hole at center, again. I expect they will be competitive every night, but I wouldn’t call them a playoff lock. In short, I don’t see much difference from last year.

9. Tyler

   Do you think players want to have the amnesty clause used on them? For instance if Arenas is cut he still gets the 60mil that he was going to earn over the next 5 years and you have to think there is some team out there that will give him 4-5 million over 4 years. so thats 20 million more he can make. Will there be volunteers for it lol

   • Jason Fleming

     Yes, they get paid, but no one is going to be asking for it. Can you imagine? Being told you have so little value to your employer they are cutting you a check to leave? On one hand it seems like a nice financial windfall…but on the other it’s gotta hurt your pride. I doubt there will be volunteers. (BTW, Arenas is due $62.5 mil over three years.)

10. zev

    Now we hear that Oden is running. What about Roy? I think that although LA wants Jamal Crawford, it creates a jam up at the 2 spot. What about Carl Landry?
    Go Blazers

    • Jason Fleming

      I believe Roy is playing in the game LaMarcus Aldridge organized for this Saturday at the University of Portland, so fans can check out how he looks for themselves. As far as I know Roy is as healthy as he’s going to be.

      Aldridge may have been joking about Crawford, or maybe they are just buddies, but signing him would be a monumental mistake for Portland. With or without Roy they already have Ray Felton, Wes Matthews, Nolan Smith, Armon Johnson and Elliot Williams on the roster. If Patty Mills signs his Qualifying Offer, they have him too. Adding another guard with the MLE (if Portland even gets a MLE as a tax payer), would be a mistake.

      I like the idea of Landry, but he will get offers to be a starter elsewhere for the same amount of money Portland can offer or more. Why would he sign to come and be Aldridge’s backup when he could start?

11. Tony

    I just finished reading Brigham’s article about under rated FAs and it got me to thinking. Wouldn’t the Pacers be better served to chase C. Landry and then use the money they save signing Landry versus West to chase J. Crawford?

    • Jason Fleming

      I like the idea of going after Landry instead of West and then using the rest of the money on a shooting guard, but I don’t think Crawford is the right choice for that team.

12. Ryan

    We are hearing that negotiations are close to complete.
    What will the luxury tax lines be for the coming season?

    • Jason Fleming

      It’s really too early to say. Lux tax levels – previously – are calculated in relation to the salary cap figure, which is calculated based on the division of BRI. Considering the two sides can’t agree on the BRI amount, we simply don’t know yet.

13. Charlie

    In his chat, Bill Ingram stated an Aaron Brooks/Tyreke Evans would be a solid backcourt pairing. Going as far as saying “Aaron would be crazy good next to Tyreke.” Do you agree? Or is this pairing too undersized and would be exposed on defense?

    • Jason Fleming

      I will respectfully disagree with Bill. He’s my bro, but I would not be excited about that as a Kings fan. Both of these players can handle the ball and create their own shot, and both seem to think they are point guards but have a lot of shooting guard tendencies (I think Evans is not a PG at all). I think pairing the too would be a disaster, unless one of them is willing to fundamentally change their approach to the game. I don’t see that happening. The best fit next to Evans is a pass-first point guard who can play off the ball and hit three-pointers at a high rate. Brooks can pass and he can hit threes, but he needs the ball in his hands to make plays.

14. Steve

    Jason,

    Why do you discriminate against us short, fat, old guys who can’t play basketball anymore?

    Don’t you know that hurts our feelings?

    • Jason Fleming

      Um, what? Is there a joke here I’m missing? BTW, I’m 5-9 and would be looking at the downside of a NBA career age-wise myself, so…there you go.

15. Bhagdeep

    If there is an amnesty clause for teams in the new CBA, if you were the raptors would you use it on jose calderon or keep it for sometime down the road to get out of a worse contract. To me Jose’s deal isn’t too bad considering he only has 2 years left and in a years time his expiring contract could be good trade value but the cap space could allow the raptors to get a better free agent..what do you think?

    • Jason Fleming

      Let’s be real clear here: There will not be a worse contract. That’s not a knock on Calderon and saying he’s horrible, but it’s because the clause would only apply to existing contracts as of JULY 1, 2011. If the player isn’t on your roster now, he won’t be eligible. Unless the idea is wait and see who gets hurt, there isn’t any point to waiting. If Calderon is a candidate, he’s a candidate. To me, if Calderon isn’t your starter and the Raptors are willing to write him a check for $21.2 million, just do it. That’s way too much money to be allocated to a backup point guard.

16. Jason

    Say the raptors get the first pick in next years draft…with the consenus top 3 being anthony davis, barnes, and drummond. would you pick davis or drummond considering the logjam currently at the PF position with Bargnani, ed davis, and Amir plus having Jonas as your future centre coming in already, even if they are considered to have more potenital than harrison barnes (who also fits a need for toronto at SF)? I know alot of people say always take talent over need but how much of a gap do you see between barnes vs davis or drummond that choosing to fill a need would be more benefitial to Toronto considering they have good players at those other spots?

    • Jason Fleming

      I am a proponent of taking the best player available regardless of position. Usually. My caveat is if a few players are close and one of them plays a position I have a starter at I really like and is a proven commodity, and the other one fills a need, I’ll take the other guy. PF isn’t a position of need for the Raptors and Harrison Barnes is still going to be a fantastic player. It’s not like trying to decide between a potential starter and a potential sixth man – take Barnes. Or, better yet, trade down to four or five, pick up another draft pick, and then take Barnes.

17. Christian P

    Do you think Steph Curry will be an all star within the next 3 years?

    • Jason Fleming

      I don’t see Curry being an All-Star before Monta Ellis – barring an Ellis injury, in which case it could happen as Curry picks up that slack – and neither of them will make it unless the Warriors become a playoff team. Ellis has been an All-Star snub at least twice now.

      So do I think the Warriors become a playoff team? I do. I think they’ll be in the mix this next season. If they maintain their offensive prowess and buy into Mark Jackson’s defensive game plans – Ekpe Udoh is a big piece of that – then the Warriors will be a very solid team…but I still think Ellis gets a nod before Curry, and adding two guards from the same team is tough.

18. Carlos A

    If the bulls do get ay rip hamilton, jason richardson or oj mayo does it really put us over the heat and makes us a championship team? And Wich one you think would be a better fit for the bulls? Thanks happy halloween

    • Jason Fleming

      I think I mentioned earlier I believe Hamilton is one of the best fits for them if the Pistons use the Amnesty clause on him. I really like Mayo, but the Bulls need a reliable guard who doesn’t need to be a star, and I’m not sure Mayo is the right fit for supporting cast. Richardson may work – he’s consistent – but Hamilton is a better choice if available.

19. luvabull

    will wizards match all offers for young same for thorton and affalo

    • Jason Fleming

      All offers? I doubt it. Washington has the luxury of being able to sit back and see what gets offered because they already have Jordan Crawford at the same position. They may match, but they won’t do so blindly. Same goes for the Kings and Marcus Thornton. Look at their roster (Kings salaries) and check out the guards they already have: Tyreke Evans, Jimmer Fredette, John Salmons, Francisco Garcia. Like with the Wizards, they may match, but won’t feel the need to match ANY offer.

      Denver and Arron Afflalo are different though. They need him. He is a key to their future, along with Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari. Losing him would set them back a lot, so I expect them to be proactive and not allow Afflalo to do a lot of shopping if they can help it.

20. Mario

    What’s up jason. 3 part ? For you should the bulls go after D12 do they really need him or should they go after a two guard and stick with what they have. And who is the 2 gaurd they should zero in on. Thanks

    • Jason Fleming

      Chicago will not have the cap space to go after Howard. In trade the Magic would Noah plus other pieces…would that be worth it for Howard? Would it make the Bulls any better than they are now? I personally say no and the Bulls shouldn’t bother. As for the two guard, I’d wait and see what the amnesty cuts are before making a decision. Like a lot of people I think Rip Hamilton would be a nice fit.

21. luvabull

    will brewer for dudley be a good deal?

    • Jason Fleming

      For the Bulls it would be great. For the Suns, not so much. They wouldn’t be interested.

22. Dave

    Mike miller, Joel Anthony, Norris Cole for Nash. The suns owe Nash a chance at a championship!

    • Jason Fleming

      I don’t know that they OWE him, really, but I agree it would be harsh to trade him to a bottom feeder. Now, that said, let’s talk money. Nash makes $11.7 million this year in the last year of his deal. Miller, Anthony, and Cole make $10.1 million this year. BUT, then they make $10.7 million, $11.2 million, and $12.6 million (last year all options) in the successive three years. If Anthony, Miller, and Cole become key pieces going forward, maybe that’s a decent deal, but if not, that’s adding well over $30 million to their cap commitments

23. luvabull

    3 way trade who says no and why bulls get:monta/dorell/al thorton 76ers get:deng/ bell/asik warrior get:ai/speights

    • Jason Fleming

      I don’t think that makes the Warriors a better team, so probably them. I don’t see Philly being stoked about it either.

24. john

    what trade value does amir johnson have?

    • Jason Fleming

      Let me turn that question around. If you were another team, what would you give Toronto to get Johnson on your team?

25. john

    who are your breakout candidates this year?

    • Jason Fleming

      I wrote that exact article (link!) at the beginning of October. So there you go.