NBA Chat With Jason Fleming 4/23/12

1. Deven

   Hi Jason. I know the playoffs are coming around, but I have a question about the off season. And it has to do with the Spurs. With Tim Duncan becoming a free agent this summer, what’s the most SAS can offer him than other teams could do?

   • Jason Fleming

     Welcome to this week’s chat! I’ll hit as many as I can in an hour…

     Duncan makes $21,164,619 this season. Obviously that’s well over the max and he’s gotten there by signing max deals with escalators with the same team. And all of it well deserved. The Spurs can offer him a 5% raise for next year – up to $22,222,850.

     Yeah, that’s not going to happen. No other team is going to offer Duncan max money at this point in his career and the Spurs’ offer won’t even approach that max possible amount.

     So what is a decent amount? Duncan is still very productive, though the question as to for how much longer is a valid one. He wants to be a Spur, the Spurs want him…Doesn’t a two-year, $20 million deal seem reasonable for both sides? He put up 15.4 points and 9.0 rebounds this year on 49% shooting. Given the desire by both for him to stay and the plan that he will retire a Spur, it seems fair. Plus the Spurs have a history of keeping their key free agents happy.

     And would any other team offer Duncan $10 million? Probably not, not at this point in his career.

2. David

   Enjoyed your piece on the Blazers a few days ago. You mentioned an old school coach wouldn’t fit with this team. Who do you see them pursuing or have interest in? I can’t see Kaleb because this team is in a short rebuilding mode, not a complete one.

   • Jason Fleming

     It’s really too early to tell what names are going to be on the market. If Stan Van Gundy is really out in Orlando – as everyone seems to assume, either by firing or resigning – then he becomes a top name. Canales should get a shot to interview. It’s best to wait until after the season is over and whomever will be fired or otherwise let go is available, to see the full pool.

     I do believe you won’t see Portland hire another old school coach like Nate McMillan simply because when something doesn’t work out organizations almost always go a different direction. The key will be to see if they go full bore the other way (Mike D’Antoni? – I don’t think so) or if they retain some sort of balance with their choice.

3. David

   If the Blazers strike out on Deron Williams, Dragic, and Brooks, do you think they would have some interest in Lou Williams or look to draft Damian Lillard or Kendall Marshall?

   • Jason Fleming

     There’s a problem there with the order of operations. The draft comes first, so they’d be deciding on someone like Lillard or Marshall in late June, while free agency isn’t for another week. I don’t honestly believe the two are related. Even if the Blazers use a lottery pick on a point guard, they don’t want to come into fall camp having to choose a starter between that pick and Nolan Smith. If they did, then the offseason was an abject failure for the Blazers.

     If they fail to sign one of the Deron/Dragic/Brooks/other FA PGs group, I don’t think Williams will be on their radar. He’s a good player, but he’s not what they are looking for in a starting point guard. Personally I think Williams is closer to Jason Terry or Jamal Crawford than a true starting point in the NBA, but that’s my opinion. Still good and can fill a required role, just not a starter.

4. edwin

   thoughts about harrison barnes? what could he average as a rookie?

   • Jason Fleming

     Considering we have no idea which uniform he’ll be wearing, it’s impossible to answer that question with any kind of certainty. Where will he be drafted? Will he start? How does he fit with his teammates? What will his new team expect of him?

     If Barnes goes to a team where he can start and play 30-35 minutes a night, 12-14 points, 5-6 boards, a steal, and 4-5 assists seems like a reasonable expectation.

5. AJ

   Who would say no to Lowry and Houston’s pick to Portland for both of Portland’s picks and Shawne Williams?

   Also, what would it take to get Gordon from New Orleans? Asik from Chicago?

   • Jason Fleming

     Portland would probably think hard about that, actually. If they could get a legit starting point guard and then have all their free agency money to spend? In the end they would probably decline because they truly believe they have a shot at a star PG.

     Also, Williams cannot be traded until he invokes his Player Option (which he probably will, it just hasn’t happened yet).

     It’s going to cost a lot of money to get Gordon from the Hornets. They will issue Gordon a $5.1 million Qualifying Offer and will likely want to keep him, meaning they will probably match anything under a $10 million offer sheet. Higher than that and they’ll have to think harder. That’s going to be the cost, though – $10 million-plus.

     Asik will be markedly cheaper, but facing the luxury tax the Bulls would have to decide if keeping this team together at all costs is worth it. Like the Knicks with Jeremy Lin though, the Bulls are protected by the fact no team can offer Asik more than the MLE.

6. Mark ryan

   Is Eric Gordon a better scorer than Rose and Westbrook? there is not 1 thing he cant do offensively and should be in the top 5 in scoring next season if he can stay healthy.

   In no more than 2 years from now he should be the best shooting guard in the NBA. Whats his potential and upside?

   • Jason Fleming

     I hate projecting anyone as the best at their position when they haven’t yet been named an All-Star. I like Gordon’s game and agree he has the potential to be very, very good, but in two years will he be better than Dwyane Wade? I don’t think so. Top three is reasonable, but not best.

     I don’t think he’s necessarily a better scorer than Rose or Westbrook – none of them have issues making shots. They just get their points differently.

7. Magic Fans

   How many of the following are with the Magic by the start of next season? SVG,Otis,Chris Duhon,Dwight Howard(We really don’t want Otis and Duhon)

   • Jason Fleming

     I believe Dwight will be there. Duhon probably will be, too, because no one else seems interested in his contract. I believe the Magic will have a new coach and a new GM.

8. HoopsNationCA

   What do you think about a trade of Kevin Martin to Detroit for Ben Gordon and the Pistons 1st rd pick (9th? Sullinger?) Pistons have a solid guard rotation. Lee starts in Houston and BG lights it up off of the bench.

   • Jason Fleming

     This trade would have to be done prior to the draft, probably, and Lee will be a (probably) restricted free agent. There is no guarantee he’ll be back in Houston. If the teams waited until after the Rockets had Lee locked up long-term, then it seems unlikely to include the pick (history shows teams are less likely to trade players after they are drafted and before they hit a training camp than before the draft, when the picks only represent possibilities).

     If the Rockets re-sign Lee, then Martin will probably have to be on his way out, but do you trade him to pay Gordon the same amount of money (plus another year) to come off the bench?

9. Roon

   If by some chance the Bobcats land the #2 pick in the lottery and not the #1 selection, would they be best served by: a) Drafting Kidd-Gilchrist or B) Trading the pick for player(s) and future picks?

   • Jason Fleming

     Draft Kidd-Gilchrist and spend zero seconds thinking about alternatives.

10. Tasia

    Magic are clearly about to start tanking there is no need to get swept in the playoffs with Dwight leaving.They would be in position for the 12th pick. If they lose their last 2 games and the knicks lose their last 2 games(the big 3 probably rest against the bobcats and lose against the clippers) bucks win their last 3(one against philly) and philly wins 2 out of 3. Knicks own tie breaker over magic and 76ers and splits one with the bucks. Bucks will then own tie breaker over 76ers. So would the standings look like this:
    6th Knicks
    7th Bucks
    8th 76ers
    9th Magic

    • Jason Fleming

      Um, the Magic already clinched a playoff spot, so I’m not sure what you mean.

11. joker jack

    Whats up jason? This is a hard question but i got to ask. Last night i was watching the hornets clips game. 1st to 3rd quarter the the hornets played good then in the forth the coach didnt put the right guys. U see turn overs that look weird. They got the lead and suddenly they dont use the clock. Quick 3s even with the lead and the coach didnt call time out.am i imagining that the hornets gave the clips a winning gift? Just curious on your opinion sir. Thanks

    • Jason Fleming

      I have no inside information on what was and wasn’t done…but it makes you wonder, doesn’t it? For me, I hate having to wonder. If the Hornets want to build for the future, that’s fine by me. Just be up front about it.

12. Frank

    Watched the replay of the Artest elbow and I agree with the commentators “that was a disgrace.” You cannot argue it was apart of the celebration as he clearly winds up and Bones Jones elbows Harden in the side of the head. How does this rank on your all-time disgraceful moves of Metta World Peace?

    • Jason Fleming

      Probably #2, since there is no way anything will ever top #1. I agree – no celebration. Having been around World Peace I don’t necessarily believe it was as malicious as some think; he simply doesn’t give the impression he thinks beyond the immediate many times. And that’s the problem, really – he doesn’t think. I’m sure he’s sorry – I believe when he says he hopes Harden is okay – but that doesn’t change what he did and he deserves to be punished not just for the incident but for the track record.

13. Sal

    With playoffs fast approaching who do you think actually benefited from the shortened season? It has been a cake walk for San Antonio this season with some players filling roles of ginobili and duncan very nicely in their absense.

    • Jason Fleming

      As expected when the season began, teams that had been together for a long time did better than teams who had a lot of turnover. Boston, San Antonio, the Lakers, Miami, OKC, Atlanta…

      The teams that really surprised me were Denver and Indiana, who had a lot of change and still managed to do very well.

14. John

    Which rookie are you the most excited to watch next season and how will you remember Nash, Dirk, Duncan, and Kobe on and off the court when they retire?

    • Jason Fleming

      Like with everyone else, I want to see Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Thomas Robinson, but I’m also excited to see guys like Tony Wroten, Jeremy Lamb and Kendall Marshall.

      As for those four future Hall of Famers, I’ll remember them for not only being some of the best to ever hit the hardwood, but also as very standup individuals. My interactions with all four showed they are not only great athletes but very intelligent people. I have nothing bad to say about anyone of them.

15. John

    Which team do you think should take a chance on Andre Drummond when he enters?

    • Jason Fleming

      I think you only take Drummond if you are willing to develop him. Have a plan in place before the draft to start working with him from day one. Don’t just expect him to do everything on his own. I think New Orleans or Cleveland would be a good fit for him, but I have a feeling he’ll end up somewhere else.

16. John

    Would you ever consider being a gm or a coach in the nba?

    • Jason Fleming

      Well, I seriously doubt anyone in the NBA would consider ME, but since we’re talking fantasy… I have no desire to ever, ever, ever coach anything. I don’t have the personality to be a teacher – not enough patience. As for GM…maybe, but I’d actually prefer to be assistant GM. I’m not big into politics.

17. John

    What is your favorite basketball moment and what inspired you to become a basketball writer?

    • Jason Fleming

      My favorite basketball moment is from the 1992 NBA Finals. I grew up a huge Blazers fan and at that age truly believe Clyde Drexler and Michael Jordan were on the same level, that Clyde just didn’t get his due because it was Portland. Then the 1992 Finals happened. After that everything was clear…and the clearest illustration was Jordan, not known at that time as a three-point shooter at all, shrugging after hitting another three, as if to say, “What can I say? I’m just that good.”

      It was against my favorite team, but it was still great.

      As far as inspiration on becoming a basketball writer…I don’t know that I had anything specific. I’ve wanted to write my entire life and do plenty of writing that’s not basketball. I’ve always loved hoops. Putting the two together just made sense.

18. John

    What is your gut feeling of Nash deciding which team he is going to play for next season?

    • Jason Fleming

      I believe he will leave the Suns. As for where he will go…somewhere he can start and have a chance to take a team from mediocre to deep into the playoffs. I don’t see Nash as the kind of player to join up with a team that is already a contender, but he wants to take a team to that point. He still has a couple years of starting in him and there should be plenty of teams clamoring for his services. I can see Portland being on his list if they strike out on Deron Williams because he could make such a positive impact on the roster. Toronto could be another possibility. I also wouldn’t rule out a return to Dallas to play again with Dirk.

19. Matt O

    Hey Jason,

    The Rockets need a C. Can you see them Packaging their 2 picks (14 & 15 approx) and maybe Kevin Martin and sending it to the Hornets for Okafor or a resigned Kaman and their first pick if it falls out of the top 5? Hornets get 3 picks between 10-15 and the Rockets get a C and the lottery pick they need to get back in the race.

    • Jason Fleming

      Kaman would have to sign an extension to his current contract before the draft for that to happen, which means it would be near $12.7 million -and t probably higher than the Rockets would want to spend.

      And as I said earlier, once draft picks become players they are less likely to be traded in the summer immediately following…

      That’s not to say Martin for Okafor couldn’t happen, but that would be a serious changing of the landscape for the Hornets. They would have no big man to rely on (say what you will about Okafor – he’s still decent) and they would now have a player who plays the same position as Eric Gordon.

20. mike

    Can players like Danny Green, Leonard, Splitter, sustain their play in the season, or does the heightened playoff intensity change that?

    • Jason Fleming

      I don’t see any of them being the type to get playoff jitters. Those kind of players get weeded out before they get consistent roles in Gregg Popovich’s rotation.

21. paprika

    I have a feeling the magic situation will get worse this summer. Dh12 might play for a team he doesnt want to play for. Unless the magics literally pulls out a magical trade. Whats your take on orlando’s summer?

    • Jason Fleming

      Orlando is already over the cap and has a roster with plenty of players other teams have no desire to trade for. I don’t see things getting too much better, even with a different coach and GM.

22. Andrew

    Would Boston trade Rondo for #6, #11, and Matthews? Cap wise, it pretty much works out for both teams (Rondo = 10 million a year, Matthews and the picks = 11 million a year combined, roughly)… Then, Portland could focus on getting a center and shooting guard in free agency.

    • Jason Fleming

      I don’t think that’s enough for the Celtics. If they trade Rondo they want an All-Star in return (as they should). While they MAY get one out of one of those picks, there is no guarantee.

23. Luckylefty

    Everybody that’s on the MKG bandwagon will look like fools five yrs from now by selecting him over barnes..you can say barnes came up small in the big moment all you want but his clutch gene was excellent as a frosh..I know pro game when I see it and barnes will be a great pro…thoughts?

    • Jason Fleming

      I personally am a fan of Barnes and think he will translate well to the pros. That said, there are a lot of experts questioning his head and his desire. Even with me liking his game I’d take Kidd-Gilchrist over Barnes if that were the choice, but I too feel any team who passes on him at five or lower could end up regretting it.

24. Lateak

    My knicks r gettin hot at tha right time i wish we had the 6th seed cause indiana would have no chance… I think we need to get steve nash… I think we will be a better team next year with camp

    • Jason Fleming

      Here’s the problem there. Well, not a problem exactly, but a situation. The Knicks only have exceptions to spend because they are over the cap for next year, meaning the MLE and the Bi-Annual Exception. Nash isn’t signing for the BAE. Heck, Nash may not even sign for the MLE – he’ll likely get more expensive offers. If he did sign for the MLE, that means the Knicks cannot re-sign Jeremy Lin. As much as Nash is a great player, he’s probably going to miss a few games each season, so the team that does sign him needs to have an adequate backup. The Knicks will be stuck filling that role with minimum salary players.

      While Nash would be a nice fit on that team, it may not be the best option for them.

25. Lateak

    D will goes to dallas where does that leave d12….. Lakers?…. T.evans 4 N.batum who says no

    • Jason Fleming

      Howard will be with the Magic next year. No one is trading for him post back surgery.

      Batum can’t be traded as a player who will be a free agent July 1st.

26. Beef

    Blazers need an over-haul, especially a new pg. Draft-Marshall?, free-agents- D-will/Nash/Dragic??- Trades-Rondo??? Which should be the priority? and is likely/best?

    • Jason Fleming

      Last question!

      The Blazers need a veteran to run the point, not a rookie. They may take a PG in the draft, but it won’t be to be the opening night starter. The smarter move would be to take a big man and a wing player to help add depth and hedge against losing Batum in free agency, then go all in for a top-tier point guard in free agency. I think acquiring one in trade is less likely. Portland would need to sell Deron Williams on the franchise and the city, but they have the means to do that. It’s still unlikely at this point, but he’ll listen to what they have to say. I believe Nash would be a great fit if they deem his age not being an issue or if they feel they will have an adequate replacement in a couple years (perhaps drafting someone like Marshall?).

      It’s an exciting time for Blazer fans, which seems weird considering the pathetic finish to the season.

      Thanks for all the great questions this week! We’ll do it again next week, same time and place. Follow me on Twitter @jfleminghoops and ask me anything there.