NBA Chat With Joel Brigham, 7/5/12

1. Omar

   Is letting go of Hibbert change the dynamic of the Pacers while adding Kaman? How much record wise does it change for the ultimate goal of a championship?

   • Joel Brigham

     Good afternoon, HOOPSWORLD Citizens, and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat! Sorry about the last-minute cancellation of last week’s go-round; I was in NYC for the draft and the schedule got a little too hectic for the scheduled time. But I’m here now, and holy cow do we have plenty to talk about. I’m not sure where exactly to begin, so I’ll just start with one of the first questions posed to me this week.

     At this point, I’ll be pretty shocked if the Pacers don’t match that max offer sheet for Hibbert. I’ve made my feelings clear for months now that I don’t believe he’s a max guy, and his numbers support that. He’s never averaged double figures in rebounding his first four years in the league, despite being like the third-tallest player in the league, and his career-high season scoring average was this past year at just a little under 14ppg. Those just don’t scream max to me, but seven-footers earn a premium in this league and Hibbert still has plenty of room for growth. He’s solid on both ends of the floor, too, which is rare in today’s NBA for a player his size.

     You don’t build that much momentum as a team and then let him go. I just don’t think they can afford that as much as they can afford $14.5 million a season. It’s slight overpayment, but it is what it is. Kaman is just a back-up plan if they do lose Hibbert, and they’ll use Plumlee as the backup. They just need Hibbert too much to let him go.

2. warren

   Are wizards playoff team?I really like beal.Can he become allstar playing with wall?

   • Joel Brigham

     Well, they’ve done literally everything they could the last six months to put themselves in a better situation to avoid being a league laughingstock, and it’s hard to argue against the moves they’ve made making them a much better team. A starting lineup of Wall, Beal, Ariza, Okafor, and Nene is probably playoff material in the Eastern Conference, though I don’t see that core as a team going too deep into the postseason. Getting there is a great first step, though, and that’s where they’re hoping to start by acquiring all those (expensive) veterans.

     I like Beal as a kid but am not as sold as some about his inevitable superstardom. He’s a really positive, cool kid, but he was just too inconsistent at Florida for me to be all in right off the bat. I’m optimistic, but cautiously so.

3. Zeeshan

   At the start of next season, Brandon Roy will be playing for the…?

   1. Bulls
   2. Wolves
   3. Mavs
   4. Warriors
   5. other

   • Joel Brigham

     I think the Mavs make the most sense for him, particularly now that Jason Terry is definitely out the door. B-Roy would be great to work with in Chicago next season, but I don’t know why someone looking to make the most of his short time left in the league would latch on with a team that probably isn’t capable of a whole lot next year without D-Rose. The Wolves could be fun, too, I suppose.

4. Bill

   Free agents the Bulls will sign?

   • Joel Brigham

     They’ll be table scraps, most likely. They don’t have a lot of money to work with and really can’t commit to a whole lot long-term because they’re either going to match the Asik deal or try to work out an extension with Taj Gibson. That’s not going to afford them much wiggle room, so look for aged veterans who’ll come cheap on short deals. Derek Fisher, for example, makes a sort of sad sense.

5. Deven

   Are you a fan of the Steve Nash trade to LA? Do you think he should have ended up in NY?

   • Joel Brigham

     To be honest, I was scared to death he’d have more interest in Miami. There was no way he was getting paid $8-9 million a season there, but can you imagine what that team would be like in transition with him running the floor? I know that would take the ball out of Wade’s and LeBron’s hands, and there’s an argument that’s a bad thing, but with a real point guard on that team they’d have been even harder to stop. Getting Ray Allen, should that happen, would be nice, but he can only play so much behind a Miami two who’s already pretty good.

     As for Nash in L.A., I think it’s great. Pau can play off the pick-and-roll just fine, thank you, so I think this signals the end of them looking to deal him. I’d forgive a Bynum-for-Howard trade, but anything south of that I think it’s worth waiting to see how this thing plays out. Nash isn’t a petty guy, so I imagine he and Kobe will figure out ways to share the ball. If anything, Nash should be able to get more open looks for Kobe, which is good for his quest to break a few more scoring records. We’ll see, but like everybody else I’ve got a good feeling about it. He’s no Chris Paul, but Nash helps the Lakers, for sure.

6. Rudens

   Brooklyn doesn’t have any more cap room, Lakers after signing Nash says there keeping the core intact, and Dallas just doesn’t have any assets for Orlando. I know we’re not on his list, but the Bulls now look like Howard’s and Orlando’s best option, your thoughts?

   • Joel Brigham

     It sure is starting to look like Dwight is going to have to play at least a few more games for Orlando, doesn’t it? There’s just nowhere for him to go unless they can work something out with the Lakers, and even that looks dubious at best right now. He looks more like a deadline deal right now, if only because by then, Brooklyn won’t have to get all those guys to agree to sign-and-trade deals. They can just deal them and say, hey, it’s a business.

     But as far as the Bulls are concerned, why not take the gamble on him? Even if he leaves in free agency next summer, then Chicago has created some cap space to help rebuild around D-Rose the following season, when he comes back 100% healthy. Joakim Noah can go back and play in Florida again, and the Bulls are either given a chance to re-sign a super-stud in Howard or just get the cap flexibility they’re obviously so concerned about.

     And anyway, so far Howard’s reticence to play in Chicago has been because D-Rose is the man there and always will be, but Rose will be out most of the season. Howard would have a great opportunity to establish himself as THE star in Chicago for maybe an entire season. Bulls fans would love, love, love the guy if he could keep them at the top of the Eastern Conference without Rose even being in the mix. Maybe he’ll love it, particularly if the city embraces him like I think they probably would.

     It’s not a move the Bulls front office will ever make, mostly because I really don’t see Dwight re-signing next summer, but I see it as a worthy gamble because the worst-case scenario is money saved.

7. Jim in CyberSpace

   What NBA organiztion has a better culture/lockeroom than than the Thunder? Spurs?

   I’m betting PJ3 and Thabeet are going to work there ass off in Presti’s “Mad Scheme” of things?

   And they are both “Cheap”.

   • Joel Brigham

     From a media standpoint, the San Antonio locker room is a nightmare, but that’s a whole other story. From a professionalism standpoint, those two are in pretty good shape. Chicago’s locker room is great, too. Excellent camaraderie, very professional, and the guys have a lot of fun.

     As for Thabeet, him at a minimum deal is whatever to me. He’ll probably spend most of his time in the D-League anyway. OKC is breeding Cole Aldrich to be the organization’s next center, and he’s better than Thabeet by a mile. Don’t be optimistic about that signing, Jim. Hasheem the Dream is a nightmare, and that was signing was just low-risk for Presti. Nothing more.

     Perry Jones III is a totally different story. Him at #28 was a steal, and while he’s obviously not going to play a ton behind Durant, he will learn how to work and win on a roster like that and that’s what’ll be best for him in his NBA career. Great fit for him as a person, even if we’re not likely to see a to of him next season.

     I actually saw Perry at the airport the day after the draft (probably the last time in his life he’ll ever fly commercially with the plebians), and he still wearing his OKC hat with a stupid grin on his face. We talked for a few minutes and he couldn’t have been happier to end up where he did. Seriously no hard feelings there at all, just utter glee to be with a winning team and playing alongside his favorite player. He’ll be alright.

8. Chris G

   Any chance the Bulls make another run at Gasol, maybe for Boozer and Brewer? Gasol’s a better player than Boozer, but with the extra salary the Lakers took on with the Nash trade they may be willing to save $4 million and use a slightly less talented player.

   • Joel Brigham

     Like I said earlier today, I think getting Nash means they keep Pau. He’ll help get the most out of him. And anyway, L.A. was NEVER taking on Carlos Boozer for one of the most talented seven-footers in the game. The Lakers aren’t about saving money anymore; they’re about chasing down another couple championships before Nash and Kobe retire.

9. Josh P

   What vets are link to the HEAT besides Allen?

   • Joel Brigham

     It’s all eyes on Ray at this point. If not him, pretty much all the difference-makers are off the market. I’d go after a point guard or a big rather than Ray Allen, anyway, but I’m not one to judge the team that just won the championship. Those three guys are good enough to win a couple more on their own anyway, so whatever help they get is just bonus features.

     Sigh. The HEAT.

10. Mutang

    Hey Joel, I know Dwight and Nash are going to dominate the chats, but how about my Utah Jazz? IMO, KOC has done a masterful job already of getting an all-star caliber PG in Mo that is the perfect fit for this team needing a tough guy leader, 3pt shooting and PG skills. What are your thoughts on that, on getting Marvin for basically nothing too, and what Utahs next move will/should be?? Thanks!

    • Joel Brigham

      I liked both moves for Utah, actually. Devin Harris obviously wasn’t the point guard of the future out there, and while Mo isn’t either he can at least hopefully be a little more effective and consistent than Harris was running the team. Not a big Marvin Williams fan, but the Jazz needed some depth at the three and how else were they going to spend the money the next few years, right? They certainly didn’t give up much to get him, so he’s a talent upgrade, and overall I’d say Williams and Williams make the Jazz a better team next season. Both good moves by Kevin O’Connor.

11. Noah

    Who if anyone are the Bulls going to sign? Going to need another lead Gaurd/Backup 2. Also if they dont match Asik, who do they bring in to backup Noah?

    • Joel Brigham

      You hear about them talking to Derek Fisher and Brandon Roy, and that sounds about right. They’ll have to hit up the center bargain bin if they lose out on Asik, too, and they’ll be scraping the barrel by July 14th. I’m guessing it’ll be somebody like Aaron Gray or Nazr Mohammad, but Greg Oden sure would be interesting depending on what his price tag ends up being. Overall, I’m not particularly optimistic about their options.

12. Mutang

    Am I the only one laughing at Nash going to LA??? I mean, I’m an admitted Lakers hater, Kobe can’t-stander, but now Nash goes there and everybody acts like Kobe is going to let Nash run that team. Its not like there is a huge amount of movement on offense in that team for Nash to find cutters and openings. Kobe will dominate the ball, and instead of just Pau and Bynum frustrated, now Nash will be too. What, Kobe will now become Rip Hamilton??? hah, no way! They wont use Nash correctly, and Kobe wont change….. Am I the only one???

    • Joel Brigham

      Nash makes everybody better, and he’s a tremendous upgrade as a starting point guard. It’s impossible not to look at those two simple facts and assume the Lakers will be better off as a result. I don’t think you’re alone, but you’re certainly a member of a tiny minority that I don’t personally subscribe to.

13. Jason

    Is Jrue Holliday worthy of a max deal? What were your thoughts on the signing of Hawes and Allen? I think 2 year deals for each give them team future flexibility and I like them.

    • Joel Brigham

      No, he’s not, but he should get at least the same kind of money as Jeremy Lin and Goran Dragic are getting right now. $8-9 million a season for Holiday feels fair to me.

      Hawes at $6.5 million a year is probably what he deserves as a skilled starting center in this league. I had a source in Philly tell me before last season that they’d regret only signing Hawes to the one-year deal last fall, but despite his solid play (when healthy) he didn’t totally break the bank, which is okay. Still would’ve been better had they gotten him to lock into a longer deal last offseason when his value wasn’t quite so high.

14. Wendy

    Houston… do they have a problem? From dumping their players to make some baffling draft picks, to whiffing on their own free agents and making huge backloaded offers to others… What’s going on there? Will it all make sense in the end?

    • Joel Brigham

      Yeah, it feels pretty messy right now, and the messiest part of all of it is that they’re probably going to have to hold onto Kyle Lowry now since they’ll have no other point guard. The Knicks will match Lin and Dragic is obviously gone. They can’t do better than Lowry on the open market at this point, so unless they’re trading him for a comparable point guard he’s stuck playing for a coach he seriously dislikes.

      And they’ve drafted like three major power forwards the last two years. The Marcus Morris Era ran its course pretty quickly, didn’t it? The way I view Houston’s picks were 100% best value available. All three guys where the best on the board at the time (for the most part), so I’m guessing they’re hoping they come through as trade chips at some point down the line. It’s like they’re stockpiling assets in the hopes of getting a bigger star later. If they fail at that, though, they’re stuck with a really random hodgepodge of guys, aren’t they?

15. 123Eric

    at this point who is the best attainable pg for the bulls?

    • Joel Brigham

      I’m going to say this as objectively as I can, because I truly believe that from a basketball standpoint Kirk Hinrich is their best reasonable option to start at point guard next season. I could see him playing for reasonable money and being familiar enough with the organization to be relatively successful.

      If not him, you’re looking at Fisher and a whole bunch of guys who just don’t make a whole lot of sense for them. Rose is out for like half to 2/3 of a season and they’ve got Marquis Teague, so this doesn’t need to be a long-term PG solution here. Just a year to hold it down and keep the pressure from crushing the 19-year-old Teague in his first year in the league. That’s why I get the Fisher rumors, even if I hate them. Hinrich would be much better, and I would eagerly anticipate the ovation for the captain’s return. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t rooting for it.

16. Ace

    Since the Steve Nash trade to the Lakers is not official until July 11, do you think that David Stern can still block this sign and trade or since Stern may not able to block this trade would he try his hardest to prevent a trade between Orlando with Dwight Howard and Lakers Andrew Bynum?

    • Joel Brigham

      This one’s not getting blocked. Breathe easy, Ace.

17. Ryan Howard

    have you heard any numbers coming out of Jameer Nelson re-singing with the Magic?

    • Joel Brigham

      Nope, not yet.

18. i am Houston

    Wzup Joel?Hope i have more success with my questions on your chat today Steve straight ignored all Rockets questions today.Why throw rediculous money at Lin when we had two perfectly good pg’s in Dragic and Lowry?If we’re willing to give J.lin the 40 million Dragic is asking for why not pay for Dragic if you’re willing to pay Lin?If we’re gonna to be crazy and over pay for a big why not overpay for R.Hibbert the allstar vs O.Asik the bench player?In both cases we’re trying to steal so why not go after a 7’2 better off & def player like RH?After this bust of a season do we finally say thanks for nothing and goodbye to D.Moreron and how long before we go from mediocre to contenders again?I know its alot but hope to get some feed back…

    • Joel Brigham

      Tommy Beer tweeted something today about the numbers Lin and Dragic put up as starters last season, and they were literally almost identical. I see no reason not to give Dragic exactly the same money you threw at Jeremy Lin. Heck, you could’ve gotten Dragic for even LESS money, and I personally think he’s the better player long-term, anyway. It’s baffling to me.

      The Asik deal is a little less baffling, but still a little weird. I get that in restricted free agency you have to offer enough to a restricted free agent to make the home team blink, and I’m praying that’s what happens here because I’ve always said I’d rather pay Taj than Omer, but $14-15 million for that last year of the deal is insane for a guy who is so completely inept on the offensive end of the floor. I’m with you that I thought Houston would throw max at Hibbert, but apparently Portland got to him first or made a better pitch.

      New York will match that Lin deal, by the way. They have to. Which means Lowry is sticking around, and that should be fun for Rockets fans next year, eh?

19. John L

    Hey Joel,

    Are we going to lose Asik? Also are the Rockets front office exploiting a loophole in the Gilbert Arenas Rule? Thanks

    • Joel Brigham

      Probably, and yes. It won’t be the last time we see that loophole abused. Loved Omer, but he’s not worth $8 million a season. Gar is nuts if he matches that.

20. Paulo

    I think I need a new team. Raptors are the laughingstock of the league

    • Joel Brigham

      Well they sure drafted poorly this year. There should never be a situation where a team drafts Quincy Acy over Quincy Miller. That literally should never, ever happen, and I can’t believe Toronto made that happen in the second round. It was painful to watch, truly. Also not all that high on Terrence Ross at #8. Would’ve been preferable to see them grab Austin Rivers or even Andre Drummond there.

      But beyond the silly picks, I think Jonas Valanciunas is a game-changer. He’ll be in the running for Rookie of the Year, and if he pans out the way I think he will the Raptors will find themselves taken seriously once again very quickly here. Fret not, Paulo. Not as bad as it looks.

21. Monty

    Why didn’t Phoenix massively backload Gordon’s deal to prevent them from matching?

    • Joel Brigham

      Max is max. New Orleans knew there would probably be $58 million total thrown EG’s way, and they had plenty of time to prepare themselves to match that. I think they’re doing the right thing, by the way. I really think that when Kobe and Wade retire, Gordon is next in line on the shooting guard hierarchy. He’ll earn those bills, I think. I just wish the Hornets had done something a little more creative with their pick than Austin Rivers. Meyers Leonard, perhaps.

      In any event, Phoenix will do alright with Dragic and Beasley, but they’re not going to be a playoff team for a few years. Gordon’s going to stick in New Orleans, whether he likes it or not (he apparently does not), and that’s the best move for the Hornets right now.

      That’s my hour folks. I had about 10 times more questions asked than I had time to answer today, so I apologize to the folks I wasn’t able to get to. Get your questions in next week nice and early and we’ll see what I can do about spreading the love with my answers. Enjoy the rest of this free agency craziness, and I’ll chat with you guys all in a week!