NBA Chat With Joel Brigham, 9/27/12

1. LA in LA

   Hey Joel, I have 2 PG questions:
   1) 2 years ago Deron Williams was considered 2nd only to CP3, if not better. Now it seems he is considered 4th-6th. Have Rondo/Westbrook/Rose surpassed him or has he lost stock for his lack of success with Nets?
   2) It seems like it’s a toss up between Rondo/Westbrook/Rose. Who is the best and worst of those three and can you give a brief summary of why?

   • Joel Brigham

     Good afternoon, HOOPSWORLD Citizens, and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat! We are four (count’em, four!) days out from the start of training camp for most teams, and in fact there are a couple of teams actually holding their Media Day events tomorrow. We are seriously so close to the start of the NBA season that I can smell it. It smells like freshly-lacquered floors and leather and new shoes, and I love the aroma. Bring it on, man. The worse my fantasy football teams gets, the more ready I am for fantasy basketball and the uptempo nature of the NBA game. I’m even sort of kinda looking forward to seeing what the Bulls look like this season.

     In other words, plenty of good stuff going on, and plenty to talk about. So let’s get to the questions. As always, I’ll get to as many as I can before my hour’s up. Here we go…

     1.) The problem with Deron Williams is that, talented as he is, he’s not the kind of point guard that raises the games of people around him. His Nets teams haven’t won, and that’s a problem. Usually when you’ve got someone you’d consider an elite talent on the roster, the team is at LEAST in the playoffs. Last season’s New Jersey team was brutal, even with him running things. That, to me, is a little disconcerting. I think you’ve got him pegged right as falling behind that other trio. CP3 is the best in the game today, but then comes those three, then Tony Parker and D-Will, then Steve Nash. After that, you really drop a tier to younger guys on the up-and-up like Ty Lawson and Kyrie Irving and John Wall and Kyle Lowry. Maybe eventually Goran Dragic and Damian Lillard and Jeremy Lin. Brandon Jennings is in there somewhere, too, just not sure where…

     2.) Each guy is great for different reasons. Rondo is the best distributor, Westbrook is the most explosive and confident scoring the ball, and Rose is the best leader. With Derrick hurt, though, I can’t put him ahead of the other two until I see how he heals. I’d go Westbrook-Rondo-Rose for now, in that order.

2. T.J. Wilson

   Will guard Jonny Flynn ever live up to his potential as the No.6 pick of the 2009 draft or has his ship already sunk? I know he’s still trying to bounce back from that hip surgery he had a couple of years ago, but I would like to see him prosper. Also, will the Wizards have a somewhat better season now that they got rid of all the “knuckleheads” (Javale McGee, Nick Young, Andray Blatche)? But we all know John Wall must step up and improve, he’s the key to their future.

   • Joel Brigham

     Did you use “knuckleheads” in quotation marks because those were my exact words? Just wondering. But the three guys you mentioned are exactly the three guys I was referring to, and I think this will be a completely different season with them gone. Flynn never was going to be a star in this league–too short, and not talented enough to make up the few inches he needed–so I wouldn’t expect much out of him moving forward. He is what he is at this point.

     As for John Wall, I’m absolutely with you that this is the year we find out about him. If he’s ever going to be an elite point guard, we’ll need to see it soon or he’ll be what he is pretty soon, too. I’m a believer in Wall, but now that he’s got the veteran pieces around him he’ll have to prove it. I think the Wizards are a playoff team this year… lots of great depth there with promising youngsters to go along with the experienced starting lineup (plus Brad Beal). 7 or 8 seed maybe, but still, playoffs.

3. Cain

   I hear PG has come into Pacers camp with an amazing intensity. I am excited, will this be the year? How will Gerald Green go in Pacers uniform?

   • Joel Brigham

     Paul George is one of those players people always talk about as having All-Star talent, but yet who just doesn’t quite put those All-Star numbers. We saw some pretty major jumps in numbers last season, and while I’d love to say that I see them jumping exponentially again this season, I’m not sure that’ll be the case simply because there really are so many talented players in that Pacers backcourt. Green is one of them, and I think he’s a guy who’s going to have to get some minutes. I can also see George Hill and DJ Augustin spending some time on the floor together, so don’t look for a big minutes boost out of Paul. If he’s going to improve, it’s going to have to be with the playing time he’s got.

     Either way, I love the kid and really looking forward to seeing what he’s got this season.

4. JJBB

   Who will put up the better numbers and be more instrumental to the success of their teams this year?[not always mutually inclusive]

   For point guards-Lin,Lowry,Dragic or Lillard.

   For bigs-Valanciunas,Pekovic,Asik,Tristan Thompson or Ilyasova.

   • Joel Brigham

     Kyle Lowry is the only player on this list that I see completely changing the face of an organization. I think he can legitimize the Raptors in a major way this season, and depending on how quickly Valanciunas gets into the swing of things, he could play a bit part in that, too. I’m a fan of the Raptors this season, and those two guys are the primary reasons why. So those are my two favorites of the list.

     I’m also expecting pretty big numbers from Lillard. He’s a scoring point guard on a team who’s going to give him pretty major minutes. Don’t look for earth-shattering assists numbers, but I could easily see him averaging 17-18ppg as a rookie. I know that’s a lot, but this is also my early season pick for Rookie of the Year.

     Ilyasova is a numbers machine, too, but only if Skiles gives him consistent minutes. He goes with the hot hand, and that killed Ilyasova’s fantasy value last year. Pekovic will be fine, too, especially now that Darko’s gone, and Tristan Thompson will be okay. Not great, but okay.

     So, if we’re ranking by how instrumental they’ll be to success: Lowry-Lillard-Dragic-Lin, and Valanciunas-Ilyasova-Pekovic-Thompson-Asik. (I don’t think it matters what numbers these Rockets have; they’re going to be bad either way).

5. Randy

   The big three free agents next year(Howard, Paul, Bynum) appear highly likely to stay. Which major player is likely to move?

   • Joel Brigham

     A lot depends on a lot. If the Lakers win a championship, go ahead and seal Dwight Howard up for an extension. Actually, I think you can seal that one up, anyway. He’s going to love L.A. on a personal level, and even though he won’t be the star of the team like he says he wants to be, I think he’ll grow into the idea of not having all that pressure on him. And eventually, this will be his team. So long as he gets an opportunity to lead a team to a ring, and especially if that team is the Lakers, he’ll be happy. Don’t see him leaving the Lakers after this year.

     Chris Paul and Andrew Bynum could be different stories, though. Things can break bad with Bynum kind of quickly, so if he ends up hurt or much too surly for Philly’s liking, it’s possible they just snatch up the cap space and let the guy wander off (or they could always sign-and-trade, too). Not sure I see that happening, because Bynum seems to like where he’s at, but a lot can happen in free agency. It’s not like he’s in a perfect situation to win a championship or anything. There may be better parts elsewhere. We’ll see.

     Paul is the real wild card, though. Vinny Del Negro isn’t leading the Clippers to a championship next summer, and depending on just how short the Clippers fall I could see CP3 exploring other options. Teams are going to have some money, and he’d make any team better in the snap of a finger (or the signing of a contract). If this group ends severely disappointing (which is totally possible), he could look at other options.

     And so, since we’re ranking today, here’s the order of how likely I think they are to leave (even though, as you said, both are relatively unlikely):

     1. CP3
     2. Bynum
     3. Dwight

6. Randy

   In the west, I think 1-6 are locked up with Lakers, Thunder, Spurs, Clippers, Nuggets, and Grizzlies. Who do you think will be 7-8?

   • Joel Brigham

     I’ll say Dallas and Minnesota. Both those teams have a nice mix of talented players both young and old, the veterans on these teams (Dirk, for example, and Elton Brand and Brandon Roy and Andrei Kirilenko) know enough about the playoffs to know how play tough enough to squeak in there. Minny will depend on how Roy plays and how well Rubio rebounds from his ACL tear, but I like that roster for the most part. I see enough of a gap between them and the next best West teams like Golden State and Utah that I think they feel like safe bets.

7. Coop

   How good can the Bulls be without Rose for part or all of the season?

   • Joel Brigham

     I don’t know, really. Not that good, though. I can say at least that much with confidence. People are always throwing the argument at me that Chicago still won all those games last year without Rose in the lineup, but it was different then. All those games Derrick missed last year were just here-and-there games. Three in a row, then he’d play for a while. Then he’d hurt something else and and miss five games. And on and on like that. The rest of the team, knowing he’d be right back, had this mentality of “We just have to hold down the fort for a few more games and then Derrick will come bail us out.” Psychologically, that’s not the way they’ll be approaching this season. It’s going to be, “Okay, Derrick’s going to miss at least 50 games, probably more. What the hell are we gonna do?”

     Thibodeau is a good enough to coach to siphon wins out of an inferior team, but not as many as last year I don’t think. The good news is that as long as they can hover around .500, Derrick should be able to come back and help usher them into the postseason, albeit as a lower seed in the conference. From my understanding of Derrick’s rehab, he’s been working his core and putting muscle on in places he never worried about before. He’s been so talented for so long that he’s just been doing the usual offseason basketball stuff and not a whole lot of targeted weight training. Last year was a lesson that he can’t play the way he plays with the body he’s got or he’ll kill himself. Hopefully his full-body rehab and a summer’s worth of rest allow him to come back stronger than ever. I certainly hope as much, anyway. He’s too good a kid and too good a player not to.

8. Kyle

   Assuming the Bulls keep Deng, Gibson, and Noah as their starting frontcourt next season. Should then Amnesty Boozer and sign and trade for Kevin Martin? A starting lineup of Rose, Martin, Deng, Gibson, Noah would make them title contenders right?

   • Joel Brigham

     Kevin Martin doesn’t play any defense, so I don’t really see that being someone I’d pursue, nor do I see Houston trading that big an expiring contract for… what do the Bulls have that Houston would even want? They already took Omer, and Chicago’s not moving Taj. Daryl Morey certainly isn’t trading a big expiring deal like that for two more years of Rip Hamilton, so what’s the deal you’re thinking of? I just can’t see anything that work.

     If they were going to amnesty Boozer for this season they would’ve already done it. They’ll save that get out of jail free card for a time when they really need it, which could be next season if (hopefully when) they extend Taj Gibson, who should be the starting power forward anyway.

     As for Deng and Noah, I see them around long-term, too. Those two, Taj, and Derrick is the core I think fans better get used to living with for at least the next few years. Barring something crazy, that’s what they’re rolling with.

9. raju

   Most of the players from other teams are saying they are not scared of Lakers , if you are not worried why talk about them so mu

   • Joel Brigham

     Probably because media won’t stop asking people questions about it. I remember after the summer of 2010 (the “Take My Talents to South Beach” summer), literally ever team was inundated with Miami HEAT questions at their Media Day events. It was insane, and even the journalists asking the questions were rolling their own eyes at them, because they didn’t want to ask them. Editors told them they had to, though, because that’s what people wanted to read about. Well, now people want to talk about the Lakers, so that’s what editors are going to press. Guys are going to get loads of questions about Dwight and Nash and Kobe, and they’re just going to have to answer them. What else are they supposed to say? “Yes, I’m very worried about all the talent they’ve got out there”? No, these are athletes with metric tons of machismo. They’re going to save face and talk all the crap they want to. Lakers will be great, but you still have to play the actual games, and the players know and understand that.

10. Mark from san juan capistrano

    One of the main weeknesses of the Lakers was their ibability to consistently hit 3s. Do you think that this is still a problem? Will Kobe give up the ball this year. (With Nash)?

    • Joel Brigham

      Well yeah, the Lakers didn’t really address that need, but I don’t know that it matters considering all the talent they’ve stockpiled out there. In today’s NBA that seems to be enough to get it done. Miami didn’t have any three-point shooting last year and they won the friggin’ championship, so I wouldn’t stress too much. Of course, they added Ray Allen, so if you’re scared of the HEAT, then stress away!

      As for Kobe giving up the ball, we’ll see. If Nash is bringing the ball up, it might not be Kobe’s choice. Even still, with Dwight down there to haul in offensive rebounds, Kobe should be able to take all the shots he wants to. One way or another, they’re going to find their way into the bucket, right?

11. Ant

    Joel how’s it going.?

    I’m a HUGE Clippers fan, even before the birth of Lob City. So I of course feel they could reach WCF, but they’re alot of those who don’t, including you guys. So I want to know what are the missing links that needs to be piece together for the Clips to make a strong push for the championship.?

    • Joel Brigham

      There are three problems I see for the Clippers getting into the Western Conference Finals:

      1. The Thunder
      2. The Lakers
      3. Vinny Del Negro

      You can’t win with that guy as your coach. It’ll never happen. Plus, with two powerhouses like that in the Western Conference it’s just going to be hard for everyone else. You’ll start to get a sense of why it must have sucked to be a Pacers or Knicks fan in the 90s. Except imagine if you had the Bad Boy Pistons and Jordan’s championship Bulls both doing work in the East at the same time while Indy and NY were just slugging it out just to finish third.

      Sometimes, you can be really good, but good ain’t always good enough. I wish you the best, but third place looks like a best-case scenario here.

12. Trog

    Can you explain the process for a non-guaranteed player vying for a job at training camp? If the team already has 15 guaranteed contracts, are these long shots just looking for a D-League assignment? And if so, how does that work? Do they go through any type of waivers before being assigned? Is it a handshake deal? Or could they hypothetically sign with any D-League team they wanted?

    • Joel Brigham

      They sign a real contract and get paid real money, and from what I understand it’s not totally bad cash, either. A solid two-week gig, actually, as long you stay on the training camp roster the full time. After that, they just let you go and you’re free to do whatever it is you want to do. The guys getting picked up for camp invites are plenty good enough for the D-League, so they’re not too worried about all that. In fact, I think some of those guys have D-League contracts to go back to if (when) things don’t work out. It’s just a part-time gig for these guys to help with practice and training camp. When it comes time for 10-day contracts, they’re sometimes the first ones on the list, so it’s a foot-in-the-door kind of thing, too. They just want to get paid to play ball and wear an NBA jersey. This is as close as some of these guys will come, so they jump on it. I don’t blame them, either.

13. OKC Fan

    Do you see James Harden signging with OKC or leaving?

    • Joel Brigham

      Yeah, I do. I see one of two things happening with the Thunder this season: either they get back to the Finals and win the thing, in which case they really can’t justify breaking up the team. Or, they get to the WCF or the Finals and they lose, in which case they have to know that if they cash Harden out, they’ll take a step backwards. Teams that are so close to winning it can’t very well break up the band. In either scenario, I just see it hard to let Harden walk. Unless the Thunder totally collapse and look awful, it just doesn’t seem likely to me. Of course, we’ll know for sure in less than a year, won’t we?

      Alright folks, that’s my hour! Thanks for all the great questions, and I look forward to doing it again next week when we’ll have some real basketball under our belts to really start some conversations. Until then, have a great weekend, and go Bulls!