NBA Chat With Mark Nugent 8/23/12

1. Wills

   Good day sir,

   where do you see kevin martin heading and do you think will barton will have a chance to start somewhere down the season??

   • Mark Nugent

     I don’t think Barton will start this year, that would be a surprise to me. He has some talent, but he has a long ways to go before he will be considered a starter. things change of course, but I think he would really have to surprise some people to move up that quickly.

     As for Martin, I see him staying put this year. His value is low and there won’t be a lot of teams clamoring to take his 12.4 million owed this season. As for in the offseason, as long as he is willing to take a deal like Kirk Hinrich or Jamal Crawford I could see him getting a lot of attention from teams that are playoff bound. Like the Lakers, Bulls, Knicks etc…

2. Skywalker 11

   Could you see the nuggets sending Wilson Chandler or gallinari and othersto the kings/hawks for Josh smith or Demarcus cousins.

   • Mark Nugent

     I don’t think that is nearly enough for Smith or Cousins. So I’d say my answer is no.

3. SatBchMagicer

   Mr. Nugent, Am avid Magic fan. Read with much interest Chat you hosted Aug. 16, 2012. Work precluded being on-line during chat but I posted a long reply to a comment on that chat concerning your opinions expressed multiple times, about Orlando ‘end’ of Aug. 12 trade(s). Reply included multi-part challenge to you to back-up your opinions with more than ‘opinions’. Hope
   you rise to my challenge. Thought it odd that you gave virtually all your other answers to chat queries some sound reasoning, thoughtful proof, but saw none of same concerning Aug. 10/ORL.
   I respect knowledge you have repeatedly displayed concerning most facets of NBA, especially Bulls-past/present/future and you don’t hesitate to refer some query responses to other’s within Hoopsworld community with perhaps more expertise in that area. Hope to be able to participate on-line Aug. 23, my work has varying time schedules, but in any case looking forward your answers to my challenge. Thank you in advance.

   • Mark Nugent

     Here is my long version of why I dislike the Howard trade for the Magic. Which is essentially the question you are asking. All numbers are approximate.

     The Magic gave up Howard, Chris Duhon, Earl Clark, and Jason Richardson. In return they received Arron Afflalo, Al Harrington, Mo Harkless, Nik Vucevic, Josh McRoberts and Christian Eyenga along with some picks. The picks all have protection and will most likely end up being outside the top 20 and quite possibly in the second round. There is no chance that any of them are lottery picks because of the protection on them.

     So Duhon, Clark and Richardson were all salary dumps, but in return they added Afflalo, Harrington, Eyenga, and McRoberts. Afflalo’s deal runs through 2016 at approximately 7.7 million per season. Harrington makes 6.9 million this season and then is non-guaranteed after this upcoming year. McRoberts and Eyenga are owed a combine 4.2 million this upcoming season and then both could come off the books next year. Richardson makes about 6 million per season and expires in 2015, one year less than Afflalo. Duhon has this year at 3.2 then is non-guaranteed next year. Clark is only owed 1.2 this season. So where is the savings? I don’t see it. Afflalo is a nice player, but for a team that is starting over like the Magic, there is no way that adding Afflalo and four more years of being slightly over paid helps the team. The salary dump that the Magic and some media have talked about never happened. The only salary they really dumped was Howard’s, who would have expired at the end of this season anyway, so there is no win here for the Magic. Richardson has more value right now as a trade chip, in my opinion, then Afflalo does because he makes less money and has a shorter contract. Skills wise they are about the same, yes Richardson may slow down in the next year or two, but by then he will only have a year left on his contract and would not be a problem to trade. At best, the salary dump the Magic have talked about was a wash. All they did was tie up more long-term money in one player.

     As for the picks, I think they will be terrible picks and as I stated above there is virtually no chance of them being lottery picks and very little chance of them being inside the top 20.

     As for Harkless, I like him and he could be a rotation player and maybe even a starter in the NBA. There is no question he can shoot the ball and he does have a NBA body. This was a good addition, but it wasn’t Dwight Howard worthy, obviously.

     As for Vucevic. I think at best he is a backup C/PF in the NBA. Again a good pickup, but there are a lot of these guys in the league. He played a total of 2.51 minutes during the entire playoffs. Yes he was a rookie, but I have a hard time seeing him being a starter in the League.

     So the Magic wanted to do a couple of things in trading Howard. They wanted a young player or two, they wanted to clear cap space, and they wanted picks. That’s what the rumor was anyway before the trade happened. What the Magic did, was add a long-term non-star contract and shuffled a bunch of other money around in one-year deals. But the savings isn’t there. The worst contracts on the Magic are still on the Magic: Hedo Turkoglu and his near 12 million for this season and Glen Davis and his 6.4 million per season for three more years are still there. Both of those contracts are worse then Richardson, Duhon and Clark combined. Had they traded Davis instead of Richardson, I’d be much less harsh on the Magic.

     I like Harkless and Vucevic, but neither are difference makers. And the picks will likely be very late in the draft. In my opinion, the Magic would have been better off keeping Howard and rolling the dice with him for one season or trading him straight up for Bynum and rolling the dice with Bynum. The deal the Magic took doesn’t help the team now, or help set them up for the future. If anything, I think it makes it harder for them to improve quickly because there is a chance that all these veterans on one year deals will put forth a crazy effort to land another contract and the Magic may win 30-35 games. If that happens it’s even a bigger disaster.

     Separate from the trade is also the re-signing of Nelson, which I thought was terrible. If the Magic are trying to clear cap space why are they signing guys like Nelson?

     So this is the way I see the trade for the Magic. They gave up a top five player in the NBA and got very little in return. I believe they had better options, including keeping him or trading him for Bynum, then making the trade they made. Of Paul, ‘Melo and Howard, the Magic did by far the worst. The Hornets and Nuggets made much better deals.

4. LA in LA

   Top 5 PFs.
   First of all, when I ask you the top 5 PFs, don’t consider age or potential, I’m only worried about how good they are right now.
   I disagree completely with you when you say Pau has never been better than Dirk. He is a better passer, rebounder (partially due to Dirk playing the perimeter) and defender. Gasol was the better play last year.
   What does Griffin do better than Pau besides dunk and rebound? Pau is definitely better than him.
   Aldridge vs Gasol is a tight one, but Gasol passes and rebounds better, and I think is a better post player.
   Gasol does everything better than Bosh except hit jumpshots.
   I’d take K.Love over Gasol. But Gasol is 2nd, probably no worse than 3rd, but definitely top 5.
   So tell me how you could rank Griffin, Dirk (based off last year), and Bosh over him.

   • Mark Nugent

     Top 5 PFs just this upcoming season. To judge this we look at last year and what we think the player will do this year. Last year, what I saw, was Pau being soft and not being aggressive on offense. Defensively he is a decent player, but he’s not all world. He is an all-around skilled big man, but he is no longer on the same level as Love, Aldridge, Dirk, or Blake. He and Bosh are probably fighting for the 5th spot. Just for this year you could easily pick Bosh over Gasol, long-term it’s Bosh due to age. Love, Aldridge, Dirk and Blake are the four best offensive PFs in basketball and on any night can explode for 30 or even 40 points. those guys can carry their teams to victory and Gasol can no longer do that. Gasol is a great player, but he is now best suited to be a team’s third best player, not their franchise guy or even a number 2.

     I watch a lot of basketball, and what I see is a declining skill set from Gasol and I see the younger guys surpassing him.

     As for Dirk, he led his team to a championship, to another Finals appearance, and to the League’s best record one year. Gasol has always been the second best player or third best player on the Lakers. This year he’s the fourth best player. it’s Dirk, and it’s not even close.

5. Gilas

   good day sir

   1. who are the stars that could hit the free agency when kobe’s and pau’s contracts expire?!

   2. could kobe and pau take less money(kobe 10m-15m and pau 8m-10m a year) to lure a young star when they re-sign w/ la?

   3. does ebanks/djo has the potential to be like ariza or maybe better than ariza?

   4. does the committee has the right to interfere when a team and a player agree to an impossible/questionable offer (e.g. kobe offered 3-year contract worth 12m by the lakers and kobe signed that deal? hehe
   can they?!

   lastly i thought, when getting dh, lakers definitely the top contender for the nba title but i just realized he’s just a little better than bynum and he could be a liability for the lakers instead of being an asset cause of his injured back and he has less loyalty than drew. Lal is uncertain to howard.if didn’t traded,drew definitely re-sign with la even if they lose in 2nd round or wcf.
   The only 2 problems to bynum is laziness on d and imaturity.
   thoughts?!

   • Mark Nugent

     1. Sorry, but that’s a big list. Here’s a link.

     2. Both could take less money, the real question will be if LA even wants them in two more seasons.

     3. Sure they have the potential, but they really have to put in the work and get the opportunity. getting that opportunity is going to be really hard with this veteran team.

     4. I have no idea what you mean. If the Lakers re-sign Kobe for 12 million a season for three more years, they are crazy.

     Howard is way better than Bynum on defense. They are probably a wash on offense. A healthy Howard is one of the all-time greats on defense and he will make the Lakers D a lot better. I would take Howard 100 out of 100 times over Bynum

6. Roger

   We all know Mike Brown is staying but this is just a hypothetical question. With the new additions of the Lakers what coach would be best suited to handle and make sure they live up to their true potential? Doc Rivers, Greg Poppovich, Phil Jackson?

   • Mark Nugent

     I don’t think you can go wrong with any of those three. Pop and Phil are two of the top 5 coaches off all-time and Doc is probably the second best coach in the NBA right now. So you can’t go wrong!

7. Jazzfan

   What do you think of Kanter’s former coach in Turkey saying that the Jazz arent using him properly by having him play with his back to the basket?

   • Mark Nugent

     I didn’t see the comments. I will say former coaches often criticize teams in the NBA for whatever reason. I haven’t seen enough of Kanter to comment, but I will say it will be hard for him to get PT playing behind Favors, Jefferson and Millsap.

8. Chris

   Hi Mark. If you’re the Bulls’ GM, what would you do in this situation? Jerry Reinsdorf wants to win titles as much as Jerry Buss, but he knows Chicago is a distant 3rd choice behind LA and NYC for free agents. What kind of incentives, contract terms, ownership stake, etc… do you advise Jerry to offer free agents for them to pick the Bulls over all other teams?

   • Mark Nugent

     You cannot offer players an owenership stake. that’s way illegal. The Bulls can lure free agents by paying guys, there were several free agents they could have pursued this offseason they just chose not to. As for the superstars, it does seem unlikely the Bulls will land one in free agency, so they should be looking to add one in the draft (not gonna happen right now) or via trade.

9. Andrew Squires

   With Rose making a return do you think Marquis Teague can be more productive than his older brother Jeff. Or no? Also do you like the letting go of Korver?

   • Mark Nugent

     I had no problem letting Korver go for a trade exception. My problem is the Bulls will most likely never use the exception, at least that’s what their history says.

     As for Teague, if he is as good as Jeff, then the Bulls have really found something special. Marquis was more highly touted coming out of high school, so we’ll see what happens. This year though, don’t expect much from Teague, once Rose returns he will only see the court in mop up duty.

10. drizzy

    Can Demar get it going this year and pick it up and help his team make playoffs ? maybe an all-star?

    • Mark Nugent

      I don’t think DeRozan has all-star potential. i think he can return to 16-18 points per game, but I don’t think he is on the all-star level. I like the Raptors, but I still have them missing the playoffs. My picks right now, in no particular order.

      HEAT, Bulls, Pacers, Nets, Celtics, 76ers, New York and Atlanta. I think Atlanta is the 8th seed and the Bucks and Raptors will be 9-10ish.

11. JR

    Assuming complete health, how will the Pacific Division shake out after the Lakers?

    • Mark Nugent

      Lakers
      Clippers
      Golden State
      Sacramento
      Phoenix

      Only the LA teams make the playoffs though and the Suns should be one of the bottom five teams in the league.

12. adobo nation

    Just a fun fantasy question sir, if rondo and jlin got traded for each other do u think both of them will be all stars in the east and west respectively?

    • Mark Nugent

      Maybe. that’s a tough one. I don’t think Lin is on that level so even with better players I’d still say no to Lin. As for Rondo, if you take away the stars and shooters surrounding him, I think his game takes a big regression, so I’d say no to him as well.

13. camaro smokes u

    Is there any interes on piston’s players? Dumars indicated he wants a trade and he needs a pg or sg?

    • Mark Nugent

      I haven’t heard any Pistons rumors. I think they are pretty much set to start the season with the team they have.

14. Cain

    How good can TY Lawson become this season? Do you think an All-STar game or two is possible in his career? Bigger breakout year George Hill (Starting PG) or Paul George in Indiana?

    • Mark Nugent

      I definitely think Lawson has all-star potential. He is a decent shooter, a good defender and he is crazy fast with the ball. I doubt he makes the all-star game this year, but if the Nuggets get out to a great start it will be in large part because of Lawson.

      i don’t think either has a breakout year. However, if one does I’d say it’s George.

15. adobo nation

    Mark as a guy from chicago u must have witnessed the best battles of the bulls and the pacers. Jordan got pippen and the group and miller got the davis boys and his boy jalen rose. Jrose was one scary dude that time he got it done when reggie is doubled or if reggie is in the bench. After his stint with indiana what happened to jalen! ? He suddenly became average. Was he injured or did reggie made him great because of the defense was concentrated on miller?

    • Mark Nugent

      Rose dealt with an injury or two that sapped his quickness some, but he was still a good player. the issue was the teams he played on were not good. He was more of a number 2 guy than a franchise leader. So when the Pacers got worse as a team, he got worse as a player.

16. Randy

    Do you buy Cuban saying that Kobe was almost a Mav? At that time, all I heard was Kobe was going to Chicago. How do you think both teams would’ve fared if Cuban made it happen?

    • Mark Nugent

      ALMOST? No. I think the Mavs had conversations, but I don’t think the Lakers ever seriously considered trading him. I think the Lakers were holding talks just to keep Kobe and his people happy.

      Had it happened, the Mavs probably would have won several titles and the Lakers zero during that time.

17. Clinton

    Reading your explanation makes me think they should have taken the Rockets deal for sure. They would have got 1st round picks and got rid of bad contracts or got Jeremy Lamb and Jones or White if they preferred talent over extra salary. I would have went the salary route and with that picks and good judgement hopefully you could get young talent yourself, right.

    • Mark Nugent

      The Rockets offer was always just a rumor, but I have to believe it was better than what the Magic got. Had the Magic traded Howard and one bad contract for picks, Martin’s expiring deal, and Lamb plus either Ross or Jones I think that would have been way better than what they got.

18. Marcos

    If moved where do you see Monta Ellis, Paul Millsap, Josh Smith after the trade deadline. Where is Pietrus and Barbosa going to play?

    • Mark Nugent

      No idea on Pietrus and Barbosa. The market seems really quiet for both of them. I thought Pietrus was in talks to return to the Celtics, but I’m not sure.

      I don’t see Ellis or Millsap moved. I see both staying put and the teams trying to re-sign them in the offseason. As for Smith, if the Hawks are looking like a playoff team I think they keep him, if not then I could see them trying to trade him for picks-the Rockets perhaps.