NBA Chat With Susan Bible 1/7/12

1. Steve

   Can the Thunder win the West without strong scoring in the paint? Perkins, Ibaka and Collison are good defenders and rebounders, but they’re not scorers. Portland killed them tonight down low! Am I overreacting to a single game, or is this a real problem?

   • Susan Bible

     Yes, you are overreacting; right now they are tied for first place in the WC (with Denver), and they still have 58 games to go in the season. They are fifth in the league in points per game. They were three games away from winning the WCF last year. That’s not to say there aren’t many things to work on, i.e. offensive rebounding, defense, fouling, turnovers, steals.

     Surely you know I’m a stats geek, so I had to check some numbers here.

     Let’s take a look at paint scoring of the top six Western Conference teams in 2010-11 (all stats from hoopsdata.com through 1/6/12):

     Dallas (won WCF, then championship):
     • Shots made at the rim (dunks, lay-ups, tip-ins) – 13.5% (26th in league)
     • Shots made within 10’ of basket – 4.2% (17th in league)
     Oklahoma City (lost WCF to Dallas)
     • Shots made at the rim – 16.7% (6th in league)
     • Shots made within 10’ of basket – 3.5% (27th in league)
     Los Angeles Lakers (lost in second round to Dallas)
     • Shots made at the rim – 15.2% (19th in league)
     • Shots made within 10’ of basket – 5.8% (3rd in league)
     Denver (lost in the first round to OKC)
     • Shots made at the rim – 18.7% (1st in league)
     • Shots made within 10’ of basket – 2.9% (30th in league)
     San Antonio (lost in first round to Memphis)
     • Shots made at the rim – 14.9% (21st in league)
     • Shots made within 10’ of basket – 5.6% (4th in league)
     Portland (lost in first round to Dallas)
     • Shots made at the rim – 15.6% – (17th in league)
     • Shots made within 10’ of basket – 4.0% (23rd in league)

     That’s pretty fascinating to me.

     Now, a quick look at the last five Western Conference winners:

     Lakers (won 2009-10):
     • Shots made at the rim – 15.8% – (12th in league)
     • Shots made within 10’ of basket – 4.8% (5th in league)
     Lakers (won 2008-09)
     • Shots made at the rim – 17.1% – (6th in league)
     • Shots made within 10’ of basket – 4.8% (4th in league)
     Lakers (won 2007-08)
     • Shots made at the rim – 17.1% – (6th in league)
     • Shots made within 10’ of basket – 3.4% (19th in league)
     Spurs (won 2006-07)
     • Shots made at the rim – 14.5% – (19th in league)
     • Shots made within 10’ of basket – 4.7% (4th in league)

     Now, last year’s top six in the WC in this early 2011-12 season so far:

     Dallas:
     • Shots made at the rim (dunks, lay-ups, tip-ins) – 13.1% (26th in league)
     • Shots made within 10’ of basket – 3.1% (25th in league)
     Oklahoma City
     • Shots made at the rim – 15.4% (12th in league)
     • Shots made within 10’ of basket – 3.5% (22nd in league)
     Los Angeles Lakers
     • Shots made at the rim – 14.1% (20st in league)
     • Shots made within 10’ of basket – 5.0% (9th in league)
     Denver
     • Shots made at the rim – 22.8% (1st in league)
     • Shots made within 10’ of basket – 3.4% (23rd in league)
     San Antonio
     • Shots made at the rim – 14.0% (21st in league)
     • Shots made within 10’ of basket – 3.7% (19th in league)
     Portland
     • Shots made at the rim – 14.7% – (16th in league)
     • Shots made within 10’ of basket – 4.0% (16th in league)

     So what does all that tell us? No, strong paint scoring doesn’t always lend itself or assure a West title. And the Thunder is about average right now. That was fun

2. Brandon

   With Spencer Hawes playing so well at center this year and Nikola Vucevic playing back-up Speights seems to be the odd man out at center and power forward. Where could he end up?

   • Susan Bible

     Speights was traded to Memphis a couple days ago. He played six minutes last night.

3. Kevin

   Happy New Year Suzie Q. Anyone ever call you that?
   Why do teams always sign bad contracts to the people that don’t deserve it, but it’s always an issue when it’s time to re-sign the contract for the superstar, the one that actually deserves it???

   • Susan Bible

     One of my friends calls me that….I like it because it reminds me of the great CCR song.

     I hear what you’re saying (hence, the amnesty clause); it’s not true across the board. Superstars Derrick Rose and Kevin Durant were re-signed to pretty good deals…but there are a lot of Rashard Lewis-type deals out there, too.

4. Peter

   I was wondering since ur a homer for okc, how would you feel if they traded Westbrook to Golden State for Curry and a filler or two like thompson or jackon? Its a better fit for both teams I believe. I know touches would be hard for the new most intriguing NBA backcourt of Ellis n Westbrook Mark Jackson could groom Westbrook into something special being a better potential franchise player than Ellis.. Meanwhile OKC still gets high ceiling player who would know hot to feed Durant especially in the clutch. Durant should touch the ball every time down in the last 2-3 minutes. Not Westbrook dribbing and clanking shots. Plus Curry is a more natural pass first point guard who I believe could make Ibaka a much better player while also opening up more shot attempts for my favorite for most improved POY and 6th man of the year James Harden who could average 22-24ppg if that happened. I know it won’t happen this year but offseason do you really want 2 max players when you still have big pay days for ibaka and harden soon?Don’t think someone won’t pay Ibaka? (See example of Deandrea Jordan). Curry cheaper and better fit with no ego.

   • Susan Bible

     First of all, it would never happen. You realize Curry just sprained his ankle – his surgically-repaired ankle – for the third time in a little over two weeks and is now sidelined indefinitely? Plus he sprained it four times last season, then had offseason surgery. On the other hand, Westbrook has not missed a single game in his NBA career.

     Second, my life would not end if Westbrook were traded. But I just don’t get why anyone would think it’s a good idea. A couple other holes in your theory: Westbrook led the league in assists (279) to a single player (Durant) last season…by far. Chris Paul was next, to David West 212 times. Westbrook was ranked fourth in total assists in the league last year. It would be nice if Durant had gotten himself open to receive the ball on a more frequent basis in last years’ playoffs. The team is growing and learning together. Give them time to figure things out. They’re on the right track.

     I realize someone would pay crazy money to Ibaka….and I’d really, really like him to stay, but I think a Harden-type wins you titles if you had to choose.

     Be sure to check back with HOOPSWORLD later today for my article on James Harden.

5. Robert

   Looking for some fantasy tips. Which team comes out on top in this trade?

   Team A Gets: Al Jefferson, Raymond Felton
   Team B Gets: Stephen Curry, Ryan Anderson

   • Susan Bible

     Team B gets the short end of the stick because of injury-prone Curry. Anderson can’t equal the production of both Jefferson and Felton.

     As an aside, I’m co-managing a certain fantasy team…Curry was on the board on draft-night and I advised to pass on him for that very reason = his injury pattern wasn’t worth the risk to me.

6. AJ

   Does a team need to have a big three to be successful long-term with the new CBA? Seems like spending restrictions will make that difficult.

   For example, will the Thunder after giving Durant and Westbrook max contracts, Serge a DeAndre Jordan contract, and Harden a nice extension, be able to afford anything else?

   • Susan Bible

     You are correct. I urge you to read this article on that very subject with regard to the Thunder: http://newsok.com/thunder-okc-will-eventually-have-to-pay-for-its-thrills/article/3635120

     I was at that press conference with David Stern; one of the local beat writers had alone time with Stern afterwards and got some interesting quotes. Basically he thinks OKC will have to be a luxury tax payer to keep all of them. I can’t see Presti giving Ibaka a DeAndre Jordan-type deal. I can’t even see Westbrook getting a max deal. After Westbrook is nailed down, next important is Harden in my opinion…then talk about Ibaka. And someone may well have to go.

7. Mike

   Could you see the Pacers being in the running for D-Will with the Nets being such a bad team and having the prospects of trading for Dwight looking slim. He could be the star that makes the Pacers an elite team and solidify them as a place to be for free agents. The Pacers have a lot to offer, maybe more than any other team.

   • Susan Bible

     The Pacers would love it, but I really think it’s all about going home to Dallas for Williams. Everything appears to be aligning perfectly for that scenario. I’d be shocked if it didn’t happen.

8. LSO

   It’s not a question but an observation. I have to give it up to the Thunder fans. (May happen in other markets but I only know OKC.) When our team isn’t performing up to their level of ability, i. e., winning, the fans never quit cheering. To me, that’s the measure of a true fan. Ya love your team, no matter what!

   • Susan Bible

     Absolutely. I think many believed once the novelty of having an NBA team wore off, Oklahoma City fans would start losing interest. Not the case at all. So far this season, OKC is ranked sixth in attendance. How about when the crowd started chanting “Russ-ell…Russ-ell…Russ-ell” last week when he was obviously struggling. That kind of says it all.

9. cole

   Are the Bulls and the HEAT head and shoulders above the top teams in the west right now?

   • Susan Bible

     I would wait until more games are played to make that statement. That said, those two are way strong. My favorite stat: Bulls have limited opponents to an average 86.1 points per game. Now that’s impressive.

10. Charlie

    When the players agreed to a condensed 66 game season, did they really consider the impact this would have in terms of injuries. Players are falling like flies, and this will most likely continue due to the shortened schedule and the multiple back-to-back-to-backs. Your thoughts.

    • Susan Bible

      That’s the first thing I thought, but the appeal of getting so many games in was a biggie to owners and the league.

11. Charlie

    Andrea Bargnani is the most underrated player in the NBA. He scores at will and is mismatch to 90% of teams due to his length and ability to hit 3′s. But he gets no respect because he averages 5 boards a game out of the center spot. If Bargs didn’t play for the little exposed Canadian team and wasn’t forced to play out of position, he would be a LEGIT candidate for the all-star team (even at the PF spot). Agree or Disagree?

    • Susan Bible

      That’s why I was thrilled to land him on one of my fantasy teams. I don’t know if I’d say he’s the most underrated…but he’s up there. Definitely overlooked.

12. dan

    Could we possibly see Jeff Green back in OKC?

    • Susan Bible

      Highly unlikely. The Thunder has moved on.

13. cj

    It really urks me that a guy like Brandon Roy is at home physically unable to play, whereas a dude like Demarcus Cousins has all the opportunity in front of him and acts like his being in the league is all but guaranteed. One thing about the situation that I find unhelpful is that many members of the media out rightly state that he is too talented. I wish someone would just bring him back down to earth and tell him his time in the league hinges on his maturity.

    • Susan Bible

      I can’t disagree with anything there.

14. David

    How fun would a Blazers vs Thunders WCF be? My Blazers are becoming real fun to watch this year, with the exception of last night

    • Susan Bible

      I’ll admit, the Blazers have surprised me! I’m on board — that would be a great series to watch.

      I appreciate you stopping by this morning. See you again next week….