NBA Chat with Tommy Beer 6/14/2012

Tommy Beer is a senior NBA writer for HOOPSWORLD and also serves as the Fantasy Editor. Tommy, who resides in New York City, has closely covered the Knicks for nearly a decade. In addition, he is one of the foremost fantasy basketball experts in the business. Tommy Beer’s chat gets started at 8:00pm EST

Tags: , ,

  1. Sven

    Hi Tommy, great playoffs !
    If OKC decides against paying luxury tax and has to choose between Harden and Ibaka, would they be willing to dangle Harden to the Bobcats for the 2nd pick ?
    And would/should Bobcats take the deal ?

    • Tommy Beer

      No – Harden is FAR more valuable than the #2 pick in this draft.
      If Sam Presti and OKC was forced to move Harden, they could get more on the open market (a proven player with an affordable contract, picks etc). That said, everything I hear coming out of OKC leads me to believe they will hold onto Harden; even if they have to splurge into luxury tax territory.

      If they are forced to chose, the question of whether they keep Ibaka or Harden is supremely fascinating. I wrote it about it last month – here’s the link: http://www.hoopsworld.com/six-pack-will-presti-pick-harden-or-ibaka

  2. Deven

    Who’s your pick in the Finals and in how many games?

    • Tommy Beer

      I picked OKC in 7…

      I think OKC wins tonight. Still, I don’t agree with those folks already counting Miami out. I think Miami takes Game 3 in MIA. However, the problem is the antiquated (and unfair) 2-3-2 format makes it very, very difficult for Miami to win this series unless they split one of the first two games.

      In addition, the fact that OKC got next to nothing from Harden (he was out-scored by Battier 17-5) and very little from Ibaka (he didn’t even play in the 4th quarter of Game 1) – tough to come up with a scenario that those two guys play as badly in Game 2….
      Can Miami do a better job of containing Durant and Westbrook tonight? We shall see.

      On the flip side of the coin, the HEAT have the best player in the world on their side, so that always gives a team a punchers chance…

  3. shaq gone fishing

    They say bynum has baby tantrums. Then what do u call the rome stern interview?

    • Tommy Beer

      I can’t kill Stern for reacting poorly to someone questioning his ethics and morals. Rome essentially accused the guy of a despicable crime… should we be shocked that Stern reacted poorly. I suppose we should expect more of the commish, considering his immense salary and position of power. But, that said, if someone accuses me of being a liar and cheat, I’m not sure I could just laugh it off.

      As an aside – here is a tough (tantrum) Bynum clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A09fixl9Fas
      Very hard to root for a guy when he acts like that

  4. Luka

    ARE YOU HAPPY WITH CURRENT KNICKS ROSTER?Could they seriosly fight for the champions with this group?Are they regret giving amare 5year full guaranteed contract?

    • Tommy Beer

      “Happy” is a relative term… If you look at the roster as currently constituted, to the roster Donnie Walsh inherited 5 years ago, then the roster looks terrific. The Knicks have the best defensive player in the NBA, one of the best offensive players in the NBA, and an oft-injured but immensely talented a former all-NBA talent power forward. The problem, of course, is that those 3 players account for nearly $60 million in salary, which makes the prospect of rounding out the roster extremely difficult.

      Due to this fact, the court ruling on whether or not Jeremy Lin and Steve Novak maintain their “Bird Rights” is incredibly important. If the Knicks can bring back both Lin and Novak without spending any of their mid-level exception, all of a sudden NY has a real chance to add a major complimentary piece (e.g. Steve Nash or Ray Allen??) to a solid core. That would be a major game-changer; as I tweet yesterday, winning that court case would represent the biggest Knicks victory in the last 10 years. That said, the chances of the Union winning the case is slimmer than Tayshaun Prince.

      Regarding Amar’e – the Knicks had to throw cash at STAT in the summer of 2010. They couldn’t walk away with nothing. In retrospect, giving him $100 million guaranteed seems shortsighted, but at the time you couldn’t kill Walsh/NY for adding an All-NBA big man.

      As far as championship contenders – the Knicks simply are not on that level. The sobering reality Knicks fans have to accept is that a team like OKC is just so far head and shoulders above New York in terms of depth, and talent, and health, and size etc. Knicks can’t be mentioned in the same breath as those elite teams right now.

  5. Mateo

    How much do you think garnett and allen will worth in the free agency? Lang said 7m for garnett and 5m for allen. If thats the case, celtics can afford them and add another significant player. ( as long as allen will be comfortable playing off the bench. ) Another thing is if they sign for 1 yr, celtics can go after howard in 2013. Is these feasible?

    • Tommy Beer

      Very, very interested to see what happens in Boston this off-season. The C’s are going to need to start rebuilding at some point – possibly right now. But you have to believe the Big 3 are at least tempted to bring the band back together for one last run – esp considering they were tied in the 4th quarter of Game 7 of the ECF. That’s as close as you can get to the Finals. That said, Ainge prob realized he needs to think long-term/big picture right now. If he had his druthers, hhe’d prob like to focus on building around Rondo. But if KG and Allen say they want to come back for 1 more season, no way he says no.

      But I don’t see it happening. I think Allen will move on. I think he’ll look for a muti-year deal, right around the mid-level ($5 million). The C’s have Avery Bradley (who looked great last season) to replace him, so I don’t think they’ll chase Ray Ray.

      KG has been the absolute heart and soul of the squad since the moment he landed in Beantown. He is the one irreplaceable component. There had been rumors that he was considering retirement. As we know, he walked away after Game 7 without ever addressing the media, so we’re not sure where his head is at… Safe to assume he comes back though. Where he’ll play – that’s the question. Have to believe he will only consider teams that are true contenders. I think $7 million makes sense – but would he be willing to take a big pay cut to win another ‘chip? This is a guy who has made over $291 million dollars in his NBA career…

      The other issue for the Celtics is that Pietrus, Dooling and Wilcox will also be FA’s. And Bass has a $4 million player option – which he is expected to opt out.

  6. Tio

    Im really confused on wat the bulls wanna do. Which vet pg is willing to play for da bulls?

  7. JC

    Hey Tommy, what’s up my man? Love your stats!

    Assuming the Knicks win the bird right arbitration and the Rockets lose out on Howard, what do you think about this trade: Amar’e and Fields to Rockets for Martin and Scola. Rockets get their all-star and a young stud. Knicks, on the other hand, sign Linsanity with bird right and Garnett with mid level exception. How scary would the team look:

    PG – Linsanity, SG – Martin, SF – Melo, PF – Garnett, C – Chandler
    Bench – Scola and crew

    • Tommy Beer

      ahhh JC, ’tis lovely to dream in June, isn’t it my friend…

      “Rockets get an all-star and a young stud” ?? Did you watch your beloved Knicks last season buddy? Fields is not a young stud, and the $60 million owed to Amar’e makes him basically untradeable. no chance of that happening.

  8. Chad M

    Mark, sounds like Jameer Nelson has chosen to opt out of his deal. If you’re the Denver Nuggets, would you be interested in him as a replacement for Andre Miller? He opted out of 8mil but wants a long term deal. Would a deal similar to Al Harrington’s work? (4/5 years, starts around 5/6mil-ish, last two years partially guaranteed?)

    • Tommy Beer

      Late news updated this afternoon was that the Magic‬ and Jameer have agreed to extend the deadline for him to exercise his player option from this Friday to June 29.

      Personally, I’d be surprised if he opted out. I understand he wants long-term security, but there’s no way he’ll get an annual salary approaching the $8 million he’ll be paid next year. He’s coming off a regular season where he averaged just 11.9 points – while shooting 42.7% from the floor and 37.7% from behind the stripe. He played better in the playoffs, but still don’t think he’ll get more than $25 million guaranteed..

  9. Kevin

    Is there anyway Nuggets trade Ty Lawson? They have to be looking for a superstar for late game situations.

    • Tommy Beer

      No – I don’t see any way the Nuggets would ever consider moving Lawson. Andre Miller is a FA this summer and will likely leave Denver. Nuggets need Lawson more than ever.

      In addition, while he may never be a true “superstar,” he played at an extremely high level this past postseason. Lawson scored 24+ points in 4 of Denver 7 games during their first-round showdown with Los Angeles. Over the final 2 games of that series, he averaged 28 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds and 3.5 three-pointers. (And he committed only 2 turnovers in over 72 minutes of total PT) Simply can’t ask for much more than that.

  10. Hammer

    Given the Bobcats have cap space and are looking to trade the 2nd pick for an established player, would the 2nd pick (Robinson) and a couple of their expiring contracts (Diop and/or Carroll) for Pau Gasol work for both teams? Or are the Bobcats after a younger established player? Not a Lakers or Bobcats fan, but seems like it could be what both are after.

    • Tommy Beer

      You think Kobe is gonna be cool with trading Pau Gasol for a rookie? You know he’s not. And Mitch Kupchak wouldn’t be either. Pau is one of the 20 best players in the NBA. Can’t trade him for a pick.
      I think the Lakers will end up keeping that core intact and hoping to flesh out the roster with some complimentary pieces.

  11. Todd

    How far is the Gerald Wallace trade in the All Time Worst NBA trades list?

    • Tommy Beer

      It’s up there, man…

      Basically, the Nets (who were already out of the playoffs) rented Gerald Wallace for 30 or so games, in exchange for a lottery pick in a solid draft. Yikes.
      The Nets may end up re-signing him, but they could have had a chance to ink him as a free-agent this summer anyway, and would still have a top-10 pick in the 2012 draft. For an organization that desperately needs trade chips in order to land Dwight Howard,the Wallace trade is that much tougher to swallow.

  12. aj

    Beside anthony davis who has the next highest potential in the draft

    • Tommy Beer

      Biggest upside after Davis is prob Thomas Robinson…
      However, this is one of those drafts where there is a HUGE drop-off after #1. Sometimes there is a Top-3 and the the drop-off to the next tier is at #4… But in this 2012 draft, there is Davis at the top, who is head and shoulders above any other player on the board. I could see this ending up as a year when #9 pick has a better pro career than the #3 pick.

  13. shaq gone fishing

    Do you see the laker management in panic mode for.next season? Who have a better season for 2013, the celtics,spurs or lakers?

    • Tommy Beer

      Mitch K won’t panic – he hasn’t before. He has to weigh both the long-term and short-term future of his franchise.

      I’d rank them 1)Spurs 2) Lakers 3) C’s

  14. charles the olympian

    Do any of this guys reach their ceiling? Ramon sessions,jfarmar , chalmers , abynum, tevans?

    • Tommy Beer

      The most interesting “untapped potential” player in the NBA right now is Tyreke Evans. As a rookie he went 20/5/5 – joing LeBron and Big O as the only two players to accomplish that feat. In the 2 years since, his scoring, rebounding, and assist numbers have all decreased in 2 straight seasons. Very, very few players possess his combination of athleticism and skill. Just jaw-dropping talent. But he’s been lost and extremely disappointing for two consecutive seasons now (both on and off the floor). Would SAC ever consider moving him? What kind of package would they get in return. If the Nets lose out on D-Will, expect them to make a run at Evans via trade…

  15. Kingsfan

    It appears to me that as presently constructed the Knicks will probably go no farther than the second round of the playoffs. Amare is untradeable, Chandler provides consistent defense. Isn’t Melo the only trade option that can bring in enough value to make a difference. Your thoughts?

    • Tommy Beer

      Don’t see NY moving Melo.
      I think Amar’e is the player they attempt to move – talked about some of the options the could pursue here. http://www.hoopsworld.com/six-pack-knicks-stuck-with-stoudemire

      A coulpel of options I threw out there:
      * Amar’e Stoudemire and Toney Douglas
      For
      Rashard Lewis

      * Amar’e Stoudemire, a second-round pick, and cash
      For
      Elton Brand

      * Amar’e Stoudemire and Josh Harrellson
      For
      Carlos Boozer and Ronnie Brewer

  16. Kurt

    What should the Jazz do with Milsap and Jefferson? Favors needs to start.

    • Tommy Beer

      Can never have too many good, young big men. Both Millsap and Jefferson will become free-agents at the end of next season; if I had to venture a guess, I’d say Utah lets Millsap walk and locks up Big Al longterm, to pair alongside Favors as their PF-C tandem of the future.

  17. Kurt

    Just think how bad the Deron Williams trade will be for the Nets when they lose him too.

    • Tommy Beer

      Even if they lose D-Will, that trade is understandable, b/c you were guaranteed at least 1.5 seasons with him (couldn’t predict the lockout). And if you are able to re-sign him (they were THAT close to trading for Dwight Howard) then you go from cellar-dwellers to championship contenders overnight.
      It was a major gamble, but you can’t fault the Nets for rolling the dice on arguably the best PG in the NBA…